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ROLEXROLEXROLEXROLEXROLEXROLEX
ROLEXROLEXROLEXROLEXROLEXROLEX
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#1 |
"TRF" Member
Join Date: Oct 2011
Real Name: Andy
Location: Ontario, Canada
Watch: AKA: ANDERL712000
Posts: 4,935
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Rolex supply again!! But a Valid question people!
Hi everyone
I started a conversation a few days ago about the grey market flooded with ceramic daytonas and batmans. The overwhelming response was that prices would drop drastically My personal feeling is that nothing will change, mainly because brands like AP and PP, which are just as hard to get (maybe harder) for years, have also flooded the grey market, but their prices stay high. My valid question is, do those brands always sell quickly (in the grey market)?
__________________
We want to be the first in the field and Rolex should be seen as the one and only-the best. Hans Wilsdorf, Rolex founder |
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#2 |
"TRF" Member
Join Date: May 2017
Real Name: Louis Nick Ric
Location: Michigan, USA
Watch: Blnr, Expll, Subs,
Posts: 10,167
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Supply and Demand. The market has been flourishing until recently, now in uncertain times most people are sitting back so prices are dropping somewhat temporarily, the higher the price the higher percentage drop. I don't see any panic situation where prices will plummet.
Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk |
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#3 |
Banned
Join Date: Aug 2019
Location: EU
Posts: 806
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I don't think we will soon see the prices drop at the gray market for hot professional models that everybody wants. Those folks already paid high dollar buying off from the flippers, and they cannot afford to sell us the BLRO for $11K as they paid them $14 or so with intention to sell it for $16K ..
What I DO expect is that we will be able to buy the BLRO from the local AD within couple of months/weeks waiting time, since most of those buyers on their waiting list will get the cold feet in these circumstances and flippers are no longer interested since grays are not buying off for the money they used to. The Rolex market will normalize this way. My 0.5c |
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#4 |
Banned
Join Date: Apr 2014
Real Name: Matt
Location: UK / EU & Canada
Watch: Sub 114060
Posts: 1,349
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Grey prices will drop dramatically and availability will increase at the ADs. It just seems logical to me considering we are going through a global pandemic with almost the complete freezing of economies. The issue also looks to be just getting started in the USA and we are yet to see the worst of it by far. Just my opinion!
I'm in the market for a new Rolex and will be taking my time and shopping around as the prices drop and availability increases. |
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#5 |
"TRF" Member
Join Date: Jun 2017
Location: DC
Watch: 126710BLRO, 116600
Posts: 7,869
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Andy, whether or not the brands sell quickly on the grey market depends on a reference by reference basis.
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#6 | |
Banned
Join Date: Aug 2019
Location: EU
Posts: 806
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Quote:
Nobody knows for sure at this point. All eyes are now on the USA who is fighting with massive number of infected ppl, even more than China as I understood. Trump is promising a great rebound of economy later this year as I understood from the news .. Hope you guys get through this quickly as that's what's most important now and I hope that if anything good can come up from this mess will be normalization of the watch market for us enthusiast. |
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#7 | |
"TRF" Member
Join Date: Feb 2017
Location: USA <> BKK
Posts: 5,912
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Quote:
Just make it simple, who would ever pay $14k for a watch they can get from an authorized dealer for $10k? I’ll tell you, nobody. Greys invested heavily and future is looking bleak for them, just a fact. |
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#8 |
"TRF" Member
Join Date: Feb 2020
Location: Northern Europe
Posts: 196
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The ting is this: no one knows what will happen! We are in the middle of something that we haven’t experienced before, and no one knows how the end will turn out - not for the society as a whole and not for Rolex specifically.
People look at the markets and make the conclusion that Rolex sales will fluctuate with them. This is in my mind a pre-mature and lazy analysis. They might, and they might not - a much deeper analysis would have to be carried out to say anything conclusive regarding beta-values of the Rolex market, and the market as a whole. Just remember, you have absolutely no way of knowing who sits behind the screens on the internet, but it is very easy to sound super confident that the prices will drop or the contrary- that they will rise. Just look at this thread already! My best advice is to educate yourself on the subject and make your own conclusions. To answer your question: as one other poster already said, it depends on the specific reference. Due to the current uncertainty, one could expect that even the most popular references would go a longer time without being sold. |
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#9 | |
Banned
Join Date: Aug 2019
Location: EU
Posts: 806
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Quote:
It's just that I somehow believe those grays are still persisting like cockroaches and we still cannot see those good deals from them. It's like they have some sort of "gray dealer union" or something, lol .. But, yeah, all those greys from instagram showing off tens of BLRO and BLNR are facing doom |
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#10 |
"TRF" Member
Join Date: Dec 2018
Location: Miami
Posts: 114
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I would like to see anyone who charges above MSRP to go down in flames!
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#11 |
2024 ROLEX SUBMARINER 41 Pledge Member
Join Date: Mar 2017
Location: United States
Watch: Rolex and Patek
Posts: 10,984
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I would think once Rolex is back up and running they will deliver more sought after models to support their AD network and help them recover from the loss of revenue ADs experienced from the closures. If more supply hits at retail, secondary prices will drop. How much is anybody's guest.
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#12 | |
"TRF" Member
Join Date: Feb 2017
Location: USA <> BKK
Posts: 5,912
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Quote:
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#13 | |
"TRF" Member
Join Date: Feb 2014
Location: USA/Denmark
Posts: 651
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Quote:
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#14 | |
"TRF" Member
Join Date: Feb 2014
Location: USA/Denmark
Posts: 651
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Quote:
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#15 | |
2024 Pledge Member
Join Date: Aug 2013
Location: Itinerant
Watch: 79010sg
Posts: 8,282
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Quote:
🥱. Yawn. So many threads on this exact topic. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk |
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#16 | |
"TRF" Member
Join Date: Feb 2020
Location: Northern Europe
Posts: 196
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Quote:
If supply before were 100 and demand were 150, then demand might fall to 125 but demand will still be higher than supply, keeping a hand under the prices. |
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#17 | ||
2024 Pledge Member
Join Date: Oct 2015
Real Name: Brett
Location: Florida
Watch: 5205R
Posts: 5,160
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Quote:
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Except my house of course. ![]()
__________________
Morality does not derive from consensus. It only comes from one place. Pride goes before destruction, and haughtiness before a fall. Often times unbelief is disguised as wisdom Instagram - patton250 |
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#18 |
"TRF" Member
Join Date: Feb 2020
Location: Northern Europe
Posts: 196
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Hah - I am always surprised to see how many Americans on this forum that actually hates the free market. I have a suspicion that the thinking is “I love the free market.....unless it to my disadvantage!”
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#19 |
"TRF" Member
Join Date: Nov 2019
Location: Arrakis
Posts: 873
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I have the answer and it is simple. “We shall see.”
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#20 | |
Banned
Join Date: Feb 2020
Location: Chicago, IL
Watch: SD43
Posts: 178
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Quote:
Its like people who buy multi million dollar homes then default on them. I am not happy peoples lives will be ruined but I will happily buy that house for 50% off on the back side. Free market win. |
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#21 |
"TRF" Member
Join Date: Aug 2011
Location: USA
Posts: 3,495
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#22 |
"TRF" Member
Join Date: Jan 2019
Location: uk
Watch: BLNR , Sub C, Exp
Posts: 459
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I don't have a huge watch collection maybe 7 or 8 nice pieces, What i do have is the calmness and capacity to ride out this awful period.
I didn't buy them as investments neither do i worry what the watch market is doing, I hope they retain most of their value if they don't I have enjoyed the chase, buying and wearing them. If $$$$$$$ is what owning a Rolex is about, that point has been lost on me. ![]() |
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#23 | |
"TRF" Member
Join Date: Feb 2020
Location: Northern Europe
Posts: 196
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Quote:
The free market is great when grays are supplying watches at a 20% discount from MSRP. But anyone daring to charge over MSRP should go down in flames! I am not saying you have said this, but have seen quote a few posts in this forum along these lines. |
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#24 | ||
"TRF" Member
Join Date: Feb 2018
Location: Texas
Posts: 233
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I think grey sellers are hoping against hope here. I don’t want them to go down in flames. But nothing like a recession to correct the course.
Want to know common denominator among these opposing comments? It’s all by grey sellers “pledge members”. That being said, I have sold watches here as well. But got to get real here folks! Quote:
Quote:
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#25 |
"TRF" Member
Join Date: Jan 2018
Location: Middle East
Posts: 1,808
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I’m confused. It’s already happening. Two months back a new jubilee batman was around $14.5k. They’re now openly advertised at $13k. I’ve seen used offered at leas than $12k here.
It’s not a case of if. It’s already happening. |
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#26 | |
2024 Pledge Member
Join Date: Aug 2013
Location: Itinerant
Watch: 79010sg
Posts: 8,282
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Quote:
Wait what?? I’m not a grey seller. I am a pledge member because I believe in financially supporting the things in which I participate and the Resources I use. I didn’t check but I assume you too are a pledge member because you’re using this forum. If not, please consider financially supporting the people who provide this service to you. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk |
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#27 | |
Banned
Join Date: Feb 2020
Location: Chicago, IL
Watch: SD43
Posts: 178
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Quote:
I hope the greys squirreled their profits away while the getting was good because the party of the century is over, possibly forever. |
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#28 | |
"TRF" Member
Join Date: Feb 2017
Location: USA <> BKK
Posts: 5,912
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Quote:
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#29 |
"TRF" Member
Join Date: Feb 2017
Location: USA <> BKK
Posts: 5,912
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I’ll be so happy to have true WIS back in the game. It was so much better 10 years ago discussing watches. Nowadays EVERYTHING circled back to money/investment/profit/availability. Just want to return to buying watches because you like them and being appreciative if it holds 75% its value.
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#30 |
2024 ROLEX SUBMARINER 41 Pledge Member
Join Date: Jul 2013
Real Name: Brian (TBone)
Location: canada
Watch: es make me smile
Posts: 75,990
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Quickest way to find out is to call a gray and start negotiating your best price on a 5711 or white Daytona C. Let’s us know what you come up with.
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