ROLEXROLEXROLEXROLEXROLEXROLEXROLEXROLEXROLEXROLEXROLEXROLEX
29 March 2020, 10:07 AM | #91 |
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if any person was thinking of selling a watch, now is the time. in three months things will be so different you'll be pinching yourself. business hasn't been super in retail for a long time. alot of weakness. retail was the last refuge of the displaced manufacturing jobs in alot of advanced economies.
here in australia we are seeing this shutdown act as a catalyst for structural changes that were on the horizon. that is to say retail is collapsing as an employer. retail demand may never be the same (alot of people living week to week will be extremely traumatised by these events in regard to their buying behaviour). alot of wealth has evaporated. alot of small business has gone to the wall and may not be able to reinstate itself post the virus. it would be only logical to assume that the impact on watches will be disproportionately large. 10 years ago supply exceeded demand. 1 year ago the opposite was true. that wheel does turn and it surely will again. |
29 March 2020, 10:58 AM | #92 |
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Man I still dont know guys
The rich always have money ADs have been mostly selling to the rich, the people who come in and buy a 100k diamond necklace. May not be so true now but mostly. With them shut down, the possible lack of buyers will offset that. If nobody is buying, no more stock will be sent to Ads
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We want to be the first in the field and Rolex should be seen as the one and only-the best. Hans Wilsdorf, Rolex founder |
29 March 2020, 11:04 AM | #93 | ||
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29 March 2020, 11:11 AM | #94 | |
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29 March 2020, 01:24 PM | #95 |
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The point about the GM stops buying when they have to liquidate inventory is well taken.
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29 March 2020, 01:31 PM | #96 | |
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Absolutely spot on. Very well outlined and reasoned. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk |
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29 March 2020, 05:26 PM | #97 | |
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Many will have bought using cheap credit because of the low interest rates. Many will also have bought so they can flex for the 'gram. Many will have bought with their annual bonuses. Many will now re-think their priorities in life and wonder - is now the best time to throw $10k+ on a watch? Stock will continue to be churned out (once the factories re-open) much as it was before the uber-hype phase we've just been through. Perhaps Patek and AP might be different, but I see Rolex as more upper mid tier and not high end like the others. The fact that David SW has dropped his asking price for a new BLNR from $16k to under $14k (and some others are now asking $13k) in the space of 2 months would indicate to me we're in for a major drop in demand. |
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29 March 2020, 07:26 PM | #98 |
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I have a feeling we going to see lot more used watches on marketplace and people will be desperate to sell them. Toys are first to be liquidated in tough times and tough times are ahead. When used sell well bellow MSRP I don't see many people paying over retail for new Rolex. Sumbariners, GMT, Daytonas prices will come back to sanity, to 2012-2014 level in no time.
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29 March 2020, 08:33 PM | #99 |
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It's a pep talk for those hoping for better prices... a brutal reality check for the others stuck in Denial...
All truth passes through 3 stages : 1. It is ridiculed 2. It is violently opposed 3. It is accepted as self-evident
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29 March 2020, 08:44 PM | #100 |
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Just received a message from a gray dealer to which I have expressed my interest in BLRO couple of months ago, but didn't proceed due to high price ..
He must be in a tough position if going through the list of messages asking if someone's still interested. Didn't ask for the price he's offering it for though, as I am not interested buying anything from the gray market atm. |
29 March 2020, 09:05 PM | #101 | |
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Explorer 1016 Explorer 2 16570 Air King 116900 DJ 16030 - Buckley dial DJ 16220 DJ OQ 17013 |
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29 March 2020, 09:39 PM | #102 |
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29 March 2020, 09:39 PM | #103 | |
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29 March 2020, 10:19 PM | #104 | |
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Rolex supply again!! But a Valid question people!
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Hahah thats great. I offered a grey dealer $1.5k less than he had an AP listed. He responded with “it’ll never go that low”. I can’t wait until it goes that low. At this point I wouldn’t buy just out of principle and because I’m stubborn. I’ll definitely shoot him an email though for vindication and to rub it in, bc yes I am that immature. |
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29 March 2020, 10:27 PM | #105 | |
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29 March 2020, 10:51 PM | #106 | |
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Yup! Welp the watch isn’t selling in fact, it’s been for sale for awhile now. Just keeps getting bumped. I’m noticing this a lot from the greys. Just keep bumping the same sale |
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29 March 2020, 11:05 PM | #107 | |
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But, if their income drops / eliminated, and they are worried about paying rent, then they won’t buy today but wait for the hypothetical tomorrow If enough potential buyers do the same, then demand drops, Rolex appear in ADs, market value will drop to below MRSP, this scares away more aspirational buyers who may have income but are nervous of spending £10k on a depreciating asset |
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30 March 2020, 12:48 AM | #108 | |
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30 March 2020, 12:23 PM | #109 |
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30 March 2020, 12:26 PM | #110 |
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with all the uncertainties and possible global recession or depression, watch shouldn't be the top thing on people's list
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30 March 2020, 12:32 PM | #111 |
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30 March 2020, 12:46 PM | #112 |
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30 March 2020, 01:03 PM | #113 | |
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This x1000000. I don't get this whole mindset by some on here who think that a normal Rolex owner is in some upper echelon of life (if anything it's made up of the EXACT opposite and retirees). It's really really really weird to me, and comes across as if they have some type of inferiority complex. For example, I think yesterday somebody said "if you're making less than 6 figures and getting any type of stimulus money, you can't afford a Rolex anyways". It's as if these individuals are parroting this nonsense because they want to think they've one upped the majority of society by simply owning a luxury wristwatch. There's plenty of 'normal' guys who probably drop the $10k equivalent Rolex money at the bar each year. But somehow they can't put back enough in 3-4 years to get a Rolex? Yeah, ok. |
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30 March 2020, 02:27 PM | #114 |
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First Post on this forum and it is nice to get it buried deep inside a thread!!!!
I've been in the "watch" game since 2000, right after Y2K and it was so much nicer "back then". I'm not exactly young but far from being old and I remember the days of walking into any AD, whether it is Rolex, PP or AP and getting what you want with minimal to no wait time. AP and PP (VC) have always been a step above the average consumer pocketbooks. AP and PP will see their demand retract, but not to a great extent. A recession makes some people a LOT of money. In about 4 months if the economy rebounds, demand on PP and AP might even spike. Rolex is not in that sphere, a barebones Rolex does not command a 20k MSRP that PP and AP does. The average buyers of Rolex, in general, are not "watch people" that most of us are on this forum. The AD will see a substantial drop in sales, forget the SS sports models, imagine the run of the mill ladies quartz dragging the bottom line of all the AD. |
31 March 2020, 07:54 AM | #115 | |
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These are the results of an online survey of 900 Rolex owners taken between May 15th and May 22nd 2018 I found on line. I've included the link but it goes behind a pay wall when linked to a forum. For that reason I've posted a screen shot. https://www.statista.com/statistics/...rolex-jewelry/ |
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31 March 2020, 09:37 AM | #116 |
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If the watches sell at ADs at a discount and then for less used. The new Rolex market at ADs will tank. What has driven the demand are the investor/speculator/have to have the impossible to get crowd. The go away, and they will, from soft prices and good availability, there are not enough buyers out there to prevent the downturn from deepening on watches.
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31 March 2020, 01:52 PM | #117 | |
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You listen to this forum and you’d think it’s a requirement to be pulling down neurosurgeon money to own a Submariner |
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31 March 2020, 02:01 PM | #118 | |
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But I would also add that $100k to one person is $150+ to another. I have a partner and we have no children. Our combine salary makes our lifestyle very comfortable. I would hazard a guess that the same combined salary for someone with three children would have to budget in a way we don't. Dropping $10k on a watch doesn't make me balk as much when I hear my friends paying $30k a year for one child to be educated. |
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31 March 2020, 02:20 PM | #119 | |
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I knew people in undergrad without a penny to their name, but worked a part time job to save for a Rolex. It’s not that crazy. So when you have this economic downward spiral and TONS of hourly work across the US being shut down, it’s ridiculous to assume this isn’t a large part of the Rolex buying population. Plus all these guys flaunting on IG, bought to take a pic, wear a couple months and flip. Those days are gone. |
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31 March 2020, 02:25 PM | #120 | |
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