Is there really a slowdown in Rolex secondary market?

[johnsonsxusfrt]

Big time slow down. I went to pick up my Pepsi yesterday and the AD had 30 Rolexes in the display case. Most I've seen in 4 years by a long shot. 5 were available and the rest were marked "exhibition" but I'm 100% convinced this is purely optics and meant to present false scarcity. Why in the world would Rolex send all these pieces for exhibition-only LOL!!

[Neil McCauley]

Originally Posted by johnsonsxusfrt

Big time slow down. I went to pick up my Pepsi yesterday and the AD had 30 Rolexes in the display case. Most I've seen in 4 years by a long shot. 5 were available and the rest were marked "exhibition" but I'm 100% convinced this is purely optics and meant to present false scarcity. Why in the world would Rolex send all these pieces for exhibition-only LOL!!

Because everyone moaned when the windows were empty lol
Most ADs have had full windows and cases for months now

They won’t sell you certain pieces still, unless it’s something like a full PM

[PhilSF]

Originally Posted by NAUI1982

I’ve had my eye on a PM Daytona here on TRF. The seller keeps lowering the price and bumping the listing. We’re now only $500 apart, and they’re still refusing to sell. Guess what, in a week, we will be a match and at that point, I’m no longer interested and we will be $1500 apart again.

Yup, market is softening, and quickly IMHO. I’m going out to see a few ADs this weekend, nad I’m guessing I will get what I’m looking for frankly, direct from an AD.

Just picked up a 126509 from an AD. Only waited 6 weeks. They are becoming available and the security of purchasing a new from AD Rolex is worth the premium.

[sea dweller 61]

I have been waiting for 1.5 years , just sent an email to my local AD yesterday and got a please be patient and thanks

[RichardBartlett]

I don't think Chrono24 and the classifieds here are overly reflective of the realized prices in the market

[Calatrava r]

Originally Posted by BillA

Some of the dealers are in a tough spot because they bought many months ago when prices were higher. Now they are significantly lower so they are holding expensive inventory. So do I feel sorry for them? Absolutely not. These were the guys buying from the back door of AD’s during the height of Covid and selling at huge markups to us. Also these were the guys buying at low prices when people needed to cash out.

Virtually every used watch dealer I have ever spoken to has the goal to move inventory within 30 days or so. The name of the used market is to buy and sell quickly. Pieces which are older are moved at par or a slight loss. Established used watch dealers buy within their margin and are fairly good at doing that. It is the brand-new players to the market who may get hurt by rapid market swings as they have to pay more and sell for less to build a clientele and reputation. There is nobody to feel sorry for except end users who bought used at the top of the market, thinking prices would always go up. Some people own Nautiluses at 200K.

[enjoythemusic]

Originally Posted by Calatrava r

There is nobody to feel sorry for, ESPECIALLY end users who bought used at the top of the market, thinking prices would always go up. Some people own Nautiluses at 200K.

'Fixed' it for you.

We ALL knew it was a bubble. Besides, am sure everyone loves horology and so are continuing to build a nice collection they love

It is so very AWESOME to see the many incoming posts here on TRF this week. Ok, sure, we're not totally back to historic norms, yet we are getting back there

[LJubel328]

Originally Posted by Calatrava r

Virtually every used watch dealer I have ever spoken to has the goal to move inventory within 30 days or so. The name of the used market is to buy and sell quickly. Pieces which are older are moved at par or a slight loss. Established used watch dealers buy within their margin and are fairly good at doing that. It is the brand-new players to the market who may get hurt by rapid market swings as they have to pay more and sell for less to build a clientele and reputation. There is nobody to feel sorry for except end users who bought used at the top of the market, thinking prices would always go up. Some people own Nautiluses at 200K.

I had a few friends in peak 2021. 150k for 5711 no box or papers, 150k Mayer Daytona, and more. I told them they would never see that money again.

None of those individuals are buying anymore. I would have a hard time wearing those time pieces knowing how much I overpaid. But that’s me.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[the dark knight]

Originally Posted by Mr Ben

If you zoom right back to the full range, the chart shows about £13,200 in 2016. Adjusted for inflation, that’s about £17,500.

I’ve seen quite a few under £20k recently so we’re not miles away from an inflation adjusted 2016 number. The spike to £40k was just tulips.

Yea, I was going to mention inflation as well. I think overall prices here in the USA are up around 25% since 2019. So have to factor that in as well.

The mighty Daytona easily outdone by stocks, real estate, even gold. Again a reminder that watches are not investments.

[HMHM]

Not too worry, closer to W&W 2025, grey dealers will start their rumour machine once again! Wondering which watch will they hyped as the chosen one to be discontinued besides the yearly crowned favourite of BLRO….

BLRO by next year March $75k #ToTheMoon!
Hopefully the grey dealer themselves keep buying BLROs, and not just telling everyone to buy them because it’s going to get “discontinued”

[panerai-lover111]

Is this a real question?

Anyone even slightly into watches knows that we have had a MAJOR correction in watch prices and still on its way down weekly.

We hit the lowest market sentiment and resale values for all brands and models across the board this month.

I would be fairly confident in saying in another 12 months we would be at all pieces are reselling under MSRP except for a very very few models that are really limited (i.e) Rainbow Daytona or the Le Mans etc...

All these off the shelves catalogue models are already below MSRP now or they will be very soon.

If your paying above MSRP today for any piece you should be doing it for love of the piece not for any type of investment or asset. Watches have lost their alure as an investment and thats the way it should be.

If you a true watch lover you should be smiling ear to ear.

[trout_thumper21]

Originally Posted by panerai-lover111

Is this a real question?

Anyone even slightly into watches knows that we have had a MAJOR correction in watch prices and still on its way down weekly.

We hit the lowest market sentiment and resale values for all brands and models across the board this month.

I would be fairly confident in saying in another 12 months we would be at all pieces are reselling under MSRP except for a very very few models that are really limited (i.e) Rainbow Daytona or the Le Mans etc...

All these off the shelves catalogue models are already below MSRP now or they will be very soon.

If your paying above MSRP today for any piece you should be doing it for love of the piece not for any type of investment or asset. Watches have lost their alure as an investment and thats the way it should be.

If you a true watch lover you should be smiling ear to ear.

Many of the “trusted sellers” featured on this forum clearly haven’t received the memo.

[BillA]

Originally Posted by trout_thumper21

Many of the “trusted sellers” featured on this forum clearly haven’t received the memo.

They have received the memo and know it, however, there are people out there who don’t care about spending a few thousand dollars more on a watch as long as they get it quickly. At the men’s Wimbledon finals, many of the stars were wearing expensive watches. I don’t think Tom Cruise has the time to go to a local AD.

[Neil McCauley]

Originally Posted by panerai-lover111

I would be fairly confident in saying in another 12 months we would be at all pieces are reselling under MSRP except for a very very few models that are really limited (i.e) Rainbow Daytona or the Le Mans etc...

All these off the shelves catalogue models are already below MSRP now or they will be very soon.

Rubbish, sorry. You have no idea what the demand is still like for SS Sports models. It’s massive. That’s not going away any time soon.
Granted, Datejusts, OP’s with basic dials, Explorers etc will remain “easy” to get hold of now because Rolex Is pumping them out still and the demand is nowhere near what it was, but the stuff that has been difficult to get for the last decade will continue to be to some degree.

[rolexpatek363]

No-one is buying any watches at the moment. I was in New Bond St yesterday after collecting a watch of mine back from service around the corner, and it's the same story in all the boutiques I visited.

Interest rates are high, confidence is low, no-one feels they have money to spare, and so the mid-tier luxury watch market is on the way down. At the very high end it's still business as usual, the whales are seemingly not affected by such trifling matters.

[rolexpatek363]

Originally Posted by johnsonsxusfrt

Big time slow down. I went to pick up my Pepsi yesterday and the AD had 30 Rolexes in the display case. Most I've seen in 4 years by a long shot. 5 were available and the rest were marked "exhibition" but I'm 100% convinced this is purely optics and meant to present false scarcity. Why in the world would Rolex send all these pieces for exhibition-only LOL!!

It's fake scarcity in order to prop up the illusion of exclusivity.

Meanwhile, they are making 1,200,000 watches per annum.

[Neil McCauley]

Originally Posted by rolexpatek363

It's fake scarcity in order to prop up the illusion of exclusivity.

Meanwhile, they are making 1,200,000 watches per annum.

And mostly selling every single one as well.
This doesn’t scream like it’s slowing down much at all in reality.

It’s just people aren’t willing to spend 30 grand on a SS BLRO anymore, which was obscene anyway.

[enjoythemusic]

Originally Posted by panerai-lover111

If you a true watch lover you should be smiling ear to ear.

Exactly!

[panerai-lover111]

Originally Posted by Neil McCauley

Rubbish, sorry. You have no idea what the demand is still like for SS Sports models. It’s massive. That’s not going away any time soon.
Granted, Datejusts, OP’s with basic dials, Explorers etc will remain “easy” to get hold of now because Rolex Is pumping them out still and the demand is nowhere near what it was, but the stuff that has been difficult to get for the last decade will continue to be to some degree.

Ha! OK you should be buying up everything right now then if you think the watch market is not in serious serious trouble.

I know many people that are down well over $150k-$200k on hyped pieces they bought. There would have been many that paid close to $50k for a SS Panda Daytona. There are ppl who have lost literally a life changing amount of money because of this hype train who wont ever buy a watch again in their life. All became watch buyers purely for the speculation and flipping aspect. They hate watches and dont even wear them.

Market is absolutely dead. Go try to sell all your SS watches for outright cash this week and see the numbers you get. It wont be anywhere near the list prices to end users.

Prices on MODA and other dealer chats are sliding every week.

[BillA]

Originally Posted by panerai-lover111

Ha! OK you should be buying up everything right now then if you think the watch market is not in serious serious trouble.

I know many people that are down well over $150k-$200k on hyped pieces they bought. There would have been many that paid close to $50k for a SS Panda Daytona. There are ppl who have lost literally a life changing amount of money because of this hype train who wont ever buy a watch again in their life. All became watch buyers purely for the speculation and flipping aspect. They hate watches and dont even wear them.

Market is absolutely dead. Go try to sell all your SS watches for outright cash this week and see the numbers you get. It wont be anywhere near the list prices to end users.

Prices on MODA and other dealer chats are sliding every week.

I feel bad for those people who lost lots of money. They had to know the risks.

[Neil McCauley]

Originally Posted by panerai-lover111

Ha! OK you should be buying up everything right now then if you think the watch market is not in serious serious trouble.

I know many people that are down well over $150k-$200k on hyped pieces they bought. There would have been many that paid close to $50k for a SS Panda Daytona. There are ppl who have lost literally a life changing amount of money because of this hype train who wont ever buy a watch again in their life. All became watch buyers purely for the speculation and flipping aspect. They hate watches and dont even wear them.

Market is absolutely dead. Go try to sell all your SS watches for outright cash this week and see the numbers you get. It wont be anywhere near the list prices to end users.

Prices on MODA and other dealer chats are sliding every week.

Good for them, I couldn’t give two hoots, I only care about being able to buy any watches I want at retail, never had any interest in buying on the grey market. Secondary grey dealers may well be in trouble, and quite frankly, good.
You’re missing my point, however, I was discussing the market at AD level, which, given my discussion with my AD yesterday, is absolutely fine.

[Hollie_Rollie]

Originally Posted by panerai-lover111

Market is absolutely dead. Go try to sell all your SS watches for outright cash this week and see the numbers you get. It wont be anywhere near the list prices to end users.

This is all anyone really needs to do. If you think the market is still hot, offer up your Daytona or GMT to a trusted seller and see what they buy at.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[Talon84]

Originally Posted by Neil McCauley

Good for them, I couldn’t give two hoots, I only care about being able to buy any watches I want at retail, never had any interest in buying on the grey market. Secondary grey dealers may well be in trouble, and quite frankly, good.
You’re missing my point, however, I was discussing the market at AD level, which, given my discussion with my AD yesterday, is absolutely fine.

I guess it depends on how long that imaginary list is, and how intrinsically liked the secondary market prices are to sales at an AD level.

How many of those potential clients have value retention number 1 over the watch itself?

How many of those potential clients are drawn to rolex because of its percieved scarcity (veblen goods)?

At this stage noone knows those figures but dont think we should be niave enough to think that secondary prices or sales dont have an impact on AD sales (eventually)

Either the way the current turn of events is great for watch enthusiasts which, like you is all i really care about

[Mystro]

Why is selling your watch any more valid of the watch market than buying a particular watch?? If we really believe our watches are not investments then why the obsession of how much value at any given moment the watch is on our wrist to flip for instant cash???
As a WIS let’s look at the flip side and let’s see how much it is to buy a particular watch for the collection. How much is a new SS Professional model gonna cost me today to wear is what I care about. It ain’t any where near msrp that is if even a AD would sell you one anyway. This is just like any other “market watch” speculation before, during, or after Covid. If you can’t magically make the watch appear on your wrist at said price, it’s all blowing smoke.

[Vince_76]

Originally Posted by Hollie_Rollie

This is all anyone really needs to do. If you think the market is still hot, offer up your Daytona or GMT to a trusted seller and see what they buy at.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Exactly this is what I’ve been telling people. Anyone who thinks prices are stable/aren’t falling would be shocked after they undergo this exercise.

[Vince_76]

Originally Posted by Mystro

Why is selling your watch any more valid of the watch market than buying a particular watch??

Because the watch market is very opaque with minimal price transparency. Fake/inflated listing and sales are a dime a dozen. Dealers work off of a fixed spread, so this is the most salient datapoint on pricing today

[Mystro]

Originally Posted by Vince_76

Because the watch market is very opaque with minimal price transparency. Fake/inflated listing and sales are a dime a dozen. Dealers work off of a fixed spread, so this is the most salient datapoint on pricing today

So once again, I am interested in buying a watch a “X” price and not watch banking my collection at any given moment. Only empirically buying a watch at said price proves anything.

In the interest of TRF education: What if I wire $16k USD to anyone that can buy me a new BLRO. Certainly someone could sniff out a BLRO this much over msrp in a tanking market and can keep whatever is left from $16k. Or any profit from this transaction can be donated to TRF.

[Vince_76]

Originally Posted by Mystro

So once again, I am interested in buying a watch a “X” price and not watch banking my collection at any given moment. Only empirically buying a watch at said price proves anything.

Ok bro I’m saying you can either buy at an inflated price off chrono 24 (those watches aren’t moving) or if you do your diligence you can save 20%. Do as you wish. I’m saying that dealers buy a watch based off a spread so you can literally back into the price they’re working towards (e.g., the sales price that you’re so obsessed over).

[Hollie_Rollie]

Originally Posted by Vince_76

Ok bro I’m saying you can either buy at an inflated price off chrono 24 (those watches aren’t moving) or if you do your diligence you can save 20%. Do as you wish. I’m saying that dealers buy a watch based off a spread so you can literally back into the price they’re working towards (e.g., the sales price that you’re so obsessed over).

You’re 100% correct. Don’t know what the other guy is rambling about


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[Mystro]

Originally Posted by Vince_76

Ok bro I’m saying you can either buy at an inflated price off chrono 24 (those watches aren’t moving) or if you do your diligence you can save 20%. Do as you wish. I’m saying that dealers buy a watch based off a spread so you can literally back into the price they’re working towards (e.g., the sales price that you’re so obsessed over).

No one is saying buy at the highest price listed on Chrono24. The reality purchase price is always somewhere in the middle. With all the buying I do with our trusted sellers over the decades, I have a very good idea of what their margin price is and what they will offer me as a repeat buyer.
I am hear to report it is no where near msrp for a SS GMT, etc…and don’t want that narrative to even suggested to those just starting to buying they over paid if they didn’t get a sale close to msrp on the secondary market. Realistically and metered expectations as opposed to implying there is a secret back door in getting a better price in general than what the market generally is showing. As always, there will be some models not selling but that doesn’t mean there is a fire sale to move them by respected and professional grey dealers.