Nothing changes. The waiting lists continue

[ronricks]

Originally Posted by sgwatchguy

+1. Couldn’t have said it better.

There’s an abundance of people here who can see the future and understand more about Rolex and watch economics than perhaps Rolex itself.

My other hobby is Real Estate. This reminds me of ‘experts’ who were saying we reached the top of the market back in 2015 and to just wait ‘x’ more months and you can get property at a discount because the market was going to massively correct. Nobody knows what is going to happen. If you say something long enough of course you will eventually be right.

[AK797]

Originally Posted by dtwer

People seem to believe Rolex would continue to supply the same amount of watches while the demand may fall, thus resulting in a fallen price. I don’t think so. I believe Rolex will ramp down production to keep supply below demand.

I think this is the smart play and Rolex probably realise it too, altho as they will want to be seen to be carrying on as tho nothing has happened as is their mantra and was during the hype, so they will couch this in Covid/Act of God and shutting down facilities terms rather than a market decision, that will be the line.

[enjoythemusic]

Perhaps it is losing faith in the perceived 'value' of currencies play to smartly move to things of intrinsic value? i seem to recall this happening in 2008 or so. As currencies are right now behind highly devalued, which we all know is nothing more than a CONfidence game, there is a time to move out of currencies and into things of 'portable' value (watches, gold, rare artwork, historic automobiles, musical instruments, etc).

During the 2008 crisis Sir Evelyn de Rothschild said on CNBC "On the other hand, if you're very safety conscience you hang on to your gold bars".

Forward to 6 minute mark.

[peterpl]

Originally Posted by ronricks

My other hobby is Real Estate. This reminds me of ‘experts’ who were saying we reached the top of the market back in 2015 and to just wait ‘x’ more months and you can get property at a discount because the market was going to massively correct. Nobody knows what is going to happen. If you say something long enough of course you will eventually be right.

If your other hobby is real estate (which surprisingly mine is as well - thats how I made most my money actually) - well you would know comparing Rolex's with the Real Estate industry is completely different and does not belong in the same sentence.

[DG123]

Originally Posted by dtwer

People seem to believe Rolex would continue to supply the same amount of watches while the demand may fall, thus resulting in a fallen price. I don’t think so. I believe Rolex will ramp down production to keep supply below demand.

As far as I know, worldwide demand for Rolex watches is as strong as it's ever been.

[peterpl]

Originally Posted by DG123

As far as I know, worldwide demand for Rolex watches is as strong as it's ever been.

What planet are you on? LOL

Coronavirus and 40 Million+ ppl out of jobs only in the US caused a exponential growth in watch demand? hahaha

[DG123]

Originally Posted by peterpl

What planet are you on? LOL

I live in San Francisco, California. Here, the shops that are open for business do have customers. I expect that when the Rolex AD's in this area open for business they will have customers and they will sell watches.

[Cossak]

The watches are toys and jewelry now. Just like Harley Davidson aged out Rolex will too age out, many younger buyers won’t have resources or want to continue this trend. It won’t happen overnight but long term.

[ronricks]

Originally Posted by peterpl

If your other hobby is real estate (which surprisingly mine is as well - thats how I made most my money actually) - well you would know comparing Rolex's with the Real Estate industry is completely different and does not belong in the same sentence.

It’s not the codependency of the hobbies it’s the people who keep saying “wait x more months” no matter the hobby or subject. It’s asinine. Nobody knows a damn thing.

[Calatrava r]

Originally Posted by Crazy Lugs

If you pay close attention to DavidSW’s inventory, the good stuff continues to go quickly...

This is true for all the re-sellers from what I can see. People are home and not spending any money on entertainment, travel, cruises, sporting venues, clothes or food out. There is a ton on money going unspent and people have time on their hands. So the hot watch models are even in more demand.

[superpop]

I think bottom line, things are going to change. Would be great if Rolex went DTC with guardrails to prevent flipping. I would love to go to a website, pick out what I wanted, and buy it. Maybe they could have a few boutique factory stores where you could not buy but rather try on whatever you wanted before ordering. AD model is a problem in situations like this because while Rolex can throttle production, the AD's cannot survive if Rolex has to dramatically trim back production to meet decreased demand. No brick and mortar store can survive selling 10-15 watches a month.

[DG123]

Originally Posted by Calatrava r

People are home and not spending any money on entertainment, travel, cruises, sporting venues, clothes or food out. watch

Most retailers with closed store fronts have been reporting 100% year over year gains for their online sales division. Streets are filled with trucks from the USPS, UPS, FedEx, Amazon etc... delivering merchandise to residential homes.

[chiscott_29]

At this point I am here just to read what the naysayers have to say because I find it somewhat comical. I completely understand it's somewhat counter-intuitive, but as things stand right now demand for watches from the "Big 4" (Rolex, AP, Patek, and RM) is getting along just fine. I don't know what more evidence anybody needs for that, but it seems people are going to say and reference whatever fits their narrative.

Prices for some models have indeed softened, but they have not fallen off a cliff and they are not going to fall off a cliff for the foreseeable future.

And note, by "foreseeable future" one can only really look at a handful of months because the reality is none of us know how this story will continue or end. At this point, both a V-shaped recovery with a vaccine and a systemic worldwide depression-like meltdown are viable outcomes. If the former happens, prices are going to go even higher and offend people even more. If the latter happens, well...I hope nobody needs to sell their watches for awhile.

[barters]

Hey guys, just my point of view as someone who has lived in Geneva for 10 years

Rolex is a (Hans-Wilsdorf) foundation. Most of what they make is donated to social causes. They have huge liquidity & no short term share holder pressure to deviate from their business model. That being part of the reason why people want a Rolex is because they can't have one.

I really think at the moment we have stasis for the hot ss models:

1. On one hand wait lists could shorten for 2 reasons a) Less folk signing up b) folk who were on it turning the watch down for reasons of prudence should they get the call.
2. On the other hand Rolex has been closed down for months due to the Coronavirus so supply will have taken a significant knock.

The secondary market prices for ss Rolex are stupid those have a long way to come down & probably will but not until Q3/Q4 this year. I have to quote Billy Ray Valentine for the reasons why "Hey, we’re losing all our damn money, and Christmas is around the corner, and I ain’t gonna have no money to buy my son the G.I. Joe with the kung-fu grip! And my wife ain’t gonna f… my wife ain’t gonna make love to me if I got no money!"

[DG123]

Originally Posted by barters

On the other hand Rolex has been closed down for months due to the Coronavirus so supply will have taken a significant knock.

Stores being closed for two or three months points to an abundance of supply, not a reduction of supply.

[garyk]

Originally Posted by Cossak

The watches are toys and jewelry now. Just like Harley Davidson aged out Rolex will too age out, many younger buyers won’t have resources or want to continue this trend. It won’t happen overnight but long term.

No offense but have you ever been part of a corporate board that discusses products and marketing to an ever younger demographic? You wouldn't believe it but at incredibly well financed and progressive companies like Rolex, they actually anticipate consumer trends. At any rate, I don't think the experts here have to worry about anything except the wait lists...

[ronricks]

Originally Posted by DG123

Stores being closed for two or three months points to an abundance of supply, not a reduction of supply.

Many AD’s have been selling watches during the shutdown via curbside pickup. They have no watches to replenish their supply. My AD hasn’t received a shipment from Rolex since the second week of February. All they have left are two tone and precious metal watches nobody wants with no idea when Rolex is going to send them another shipment.

[MRPWRPATX21]

Originally Posted by DG123

I live in San Francisco, California. Here, the shops that are open for business do have customers. I expect that when the Rolex AD's in this area open for business they will have customers and they will sell watches.

While I would say it’s impossible to truly measure demand (and thus know if it’s as strong as it’s ever been), it’s at very least strong enough to more than cover the current supply (you can argue whether it’s next to nothing or not as affected as some think, either way...), plus still cover the reduced volume of watches that they will produce this year, at least based on the AD interactions I’ve had lately.

The real test will be what happens to the market in 2-5 years down the line if things take longer to get back to “normal” and/or shit gets real with China.

[MRPWRPATX21]

Originally Posted by ronricks

Many AD’s have been selling watches during the shutdown via curbside pickup. They have no watches to replenish their supply. My AD hasn’t received a shipment from Rolex since the second week of February. All they have left are two tone and precious metal watches nobody wants with no idea when Rolex is going to send them another shipment.

The 2 I’ve been at and spoken with said the same thing. They’re each assuming a shipment in June, but hoping for one in May.

[barters]

Rolex (& most things in CH) have been closed down due to the virus so supply will have been hit. The unknown element is how many of these hot watches (which is what I am referring to) Rolex are holding in inventory.

[DG123]

Originally Posted by ronricks

. All they have left are two tone and precious metal watches nobody wants .

The styles you proclaim "nobody wants" comprise 90% of Rolex product line.

[djyolky]

Originally Posted by DG123

As far as I know, worldwide demand for Rolex watches is as strong as it's ever been.

Apparently, not that far.

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[HopWatch]

Rolex and their AD’s prefer to sell more PM and TT models which is why, IMO, the high demand SS watches will continue to be hard to acquire for most buyers. Shipments will be arriving soon to an AD near you. Let’s see.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[ronricks]

Originally Posted by DG123

The styles you proclaim "nobody wants" comprise 90% of Rolex product line.

While true they are sitting with no buyers. Meanwhile, they emptied out their whole stock of SS pieces including ones that they had been hoarding in their ‘safe’ over the last 8 months prior to the virus. Product line does not equal desirability. Those can and are two distinctly different things.

[DG123]

Originally Posted by MRPWRPATX21

While I would say it’s impossible to truly measure demand (and thus know if it’s as strong as it’s ever been), it’s at very least strong enough to more than cover the current supply (you can argue whether it’s next to nothing or not as affected as some think, either way...), plus still cover the reduced volume of watches that they will produce this year, at least based on the AD interactions I’ve had lately.

The real test will be what happens to the market in 2-5 years down the line if things take longer to get back to “normal” and/or shit gets real with China.

I believe year 2020's "reduced volume" is likely 200,000 watches (out of the usual 1 million annual production). This is in line with AD's closing their doors for two months, so the production decrease matches and, or, balances with the AD's 2020 annual sales revenue decrease.
As for demand, Rolex is an extremely strong worldwide brand name which for a hundred years now has withstood well a wide range of economic environments. All factors considered, Rolex company is likely fine today and as well will be 5 years from now.

[minhc88]

Originally Posted by peterpl

LOL never believe articles that are written by gray dealers or have close links to the gray market.

It is in their own interest to hype up watches. Just look at the prices of the hot models. They have definitely dropped 100% and in some cases like the BLNR its dropped ALOT from their peaks.

Economy is down the shitter. 36 or is it 39 million ppl now unemployed in the US? You saying that aint going to affect any luxury watch market? Keep dreamin.

Unemployment in the US will hit 50 million by end of the year. Who gives a crap about a BLNR, BLRO or a LV. LOL

China economy stopped giving growth forecasts this year. This means they wont meet any growth target at all. Chinese economy down = luxury watch market down the shitter. Especially if they bring the new regulations in HK which they are proposing now.

It's inevitable.. the gray prices will spiral down.. just some patience for those looking for that SS model.

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[SudiYunus]

Originally Posted by chiscott_29

At this point I am here just to read what the naysayers have to say because I find it somewhat comical. I completely understand it's somewhat counter-intuitive, but as things stand right now demand for watches from the "Big 4" (Rolex, AP, Patek, and RM) is getting along just fine. I don't know what more evidence anybody needs for that, but it seems people are going to say and reference whatever fits their narrative.

Prices for some models have indeed softened, but they have not fallen off a cliff and they are not going to fall off a cliff for the foreseeable future.

And note, by "foreseeable future" one can only really look at a handful of months because the reality is none of us know how this story will continue or end. At this point, both a V-shaped recovery with a vaccine and a systemic worldwide depression-like meltdown are viable outcomes. If the former happens, prices are going to go even higher and offend people even more. If the latter happens, well...I hope nobody needs to sell their watches for awhile.

Very well said

[cdmorenot]

Originally Posted by garyk

No offense but have you ever been part of a corporate board that discusses products and marketing to an ever younger demographic? You wouldn't believe it but at incredibly well financed and progressive companies like Rolex, they actually anticipate consumer trends. At any rate, I don't think the experts here have to worry about anything except the wait lists...

Hold up. So you’re saying the incredibly progressive and well financed folks at Rolex anticipated this pandemic and the fall out associated with it when organizations such as WHO and entire nations including the most powerful country in the world couldn’t ?

Okay. So Rolex has officially achieved God level fanboyism. I’m out.


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[DG123]

Originally Posted by cdmorenot

Hold up. So you’re saying the incredibly progressive and well financed folks at Rolex anticipated this pandemic and the fall out associated with it when organizations such as WHO and entire nations including the most powerful country in the world couldn’t ?

Okay. So Rolex has officially achieved God level fanboyism. I’m out.


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garyk's post was addressing a separate subject, nothing at all to do with the Coronavirus pandemic.

[Fleetlord]

Originally Posted by DG123

Rolex corporate does not own the Rolex Boutiques. Do you happen to know if
the boutiques for the brands you mention (Omega , Panerai etc...)are owned by the brand company or independently owned ?

To my knowledge:

Omega is SWATCH owned, as is the Tourbillion boutiques that sell Omega and other higher end Swatch Group brands.

Panerai is a mix of corporate stores AND stores owned by AD's that run the boutiques.

Breitling is the same as above. Some corporate, some AD owned.

Tag Heuer is all company owned.

IWC I think is mostly company owned. Maybe some in Asia are partnerships.

AP is company owned.

VC is company owned.

ALS? Not Sure.

RM is company owned.

Etc...