Nothing changes. The waiting lists continue

[doramas]

Rolex, Patek Philippe and Audemars Piguet waiting lists are just as long as before the pandemic

https://usa.watchpro.com/rolex-patek...rized-dealers/

[Yess]

It's because people think Rolex is a normal company... You know, needs to make a monthly profit etc, etc. They don't need money in the short-medium term. They can ride this out long term and protect their brand.

They have absolutely nothing, zero, to benefit from making their watches readily available.

[enjoythemusic]

Give it three to five months and check back as real estate / retail defaults affect the market and consumer sentiment. It's not helping matters today that central banks / bankers are trying to paper over the mess they greatly helped create, and thus goosing-up stocks, etc.

Give it time, the tide will turn once today's hangover goes away. jmho

[Marcjvr]

Originally Posted by doramas

Rolex, Patek Philippe and Audemars Piguet waiting lists are just as long as before the pandemic

https://usa.watchpro.com/rolex-patek...rized-dealers/

It’s still early. The economic fallout is just starting.

[Psmith]

I didn't realise it was over?

[1William]

I think the watch availability situation will only get worse as the world starts to recover. Factories were closed for a period of time, AD's sold through a lot of remaining stock on hot models and there is pent up demand. The prices for the major TS on TRF have recovered somewhat from a small dip and we are poised to see a real lack of watches from AD's. Mix that in with a limited release from Rolex and PP in July or August, my speculation if we continue to do well, and you have the pieces for an amazing lack of watches and crazy Grey Market prices. We will see.

[shawn13ca]

We're in this for a while... The effects are not getting felt yet as government money is masking the crisis. Wait a year...

[PatrickGu]

Recession is coming and luxury items will be the first thing majority of the people will cut out.

Give it time

[Ranger67]

I’ve been tracking they grey market here in the UK since March to purchase my first Rolex hoping prices would come down to near mrsp but they have hardly dropped at all.

[enjoythemusic]

Originally Posted by shawn13ca

We're in this for a while... The effects are not getting felt yet as government money is masking the crisis. Wait a year...

^^^^ Truth.

[danyvw]

Originally Posted by Ranger67

I’ve been tracking they grey market here in the UK since March to purchase my first Rolex hoping prices would come down to near mrsp but they have hardly dropped at all.

Patience Yoda Patience.jpg

[Rexplorer214270]

This part doesn't make AD's look good:

"One authorized dealer, who spoke to WatchPro on condition of anonymity, said he did not expect Rolex or Patek Philippe to significantly ramp up production of unicorn watches, adding that he thought it was good for the market that they remain too rare to be sold to walk-up customers.
“I don’t want to see [Rolex Submariner] Hulks in windows. Demand should exceed supply for these special watches,” he suggests."

[PatrickGu]

Wishful thinking but maybe in 6 months we will be able to get SS sports model from the AD with no waiting lists at retail prices...(apart from Daytona’s if I’m being realistic)

[NachoNeal]

I made a few phone calls yesterday, just to check out the possibility of buying a Tudor BB58 for my son's birthday in August. I was told by two different ADs that the wait list had increased from 6 months to about a year.

[Xerxes77]

I think the price will drop and also demand will drop.
It’s very early now to can predict what happens next but one thing it’s sure: this coronavirus crisis will be followed by a recession.
Yes I see too that prices on watch market not drop till now but I see also that I’m looking to same watch, so I see the stock are there no moving.
Also, let’s be honest the price rise very much on the last year. In 2018 you can buy a Daytona ceramic white dial with 14-15k euro or SkyDweller Blue dial with 15,5-16k.
The price will come down and the AD will come with feet on the earth again. I think they levitate now but they must not forget that only few pieces have some waiting list but to can stay on the business they need to sell many models who have no waiting list.

[AJMarcus]

Originally Posted by doramas

Rolex, Patek Philippe and Audemars Piguet waiting lists are just as long as before the pandemic

https://usa.watchpro.com/rolex-patek...rized-dealers/

I read that too. I thought it was a really weak article with no real sourcing. Just some wishful thinking by a couple ADs. No ones gonna call an AD and say, take me off the list. More likely when they receive the call they’ll pass. That will certainly happen in great numbers due to the global economic conditions no doubt. I wish these writers would interview more than ADs who know about as much as anyone else.

[Yess]

Originally Posted by Ranger67

I’ve been tracking they grey market here in the UK since March to purchase my first Rolex hoping prices would come down to near mrsp but they have hardly dropped at all.

It's a US dominant board.
You need to filter what is happening in America vs the rest of the world. The dominant voice here reflects the US, not the whole world. There's very different experiences with Rolex both pre-and-post Covid depending on your global location.

[AJMarcus]

Originally Posted by Rexplorer214270

This part doesn't make AD's look good:

"One authorized dealer, who spoke to WatchPro on condition of anonymity, said he did not expect Rolex or Patek Philippe to significantly ramp up production of unicorn watches, adding that he thought it was good for the market that they remain too rare to be sold to walk-up customers.
“I don’t want to see [Rolex Submariner] Hulks in windows. Demand should exceed supply for these special watches,” he suggests."

It’s one ADs opinion who is hiding behind anonymity. It certainly contradicts what Rolex just released but that does not make it true. That’s how bad rumors start.

[Chester01]

Listen, industry insiders want to create th illusion of business as normal and not scare folks. No salesman ever says wow, demand has died, haven’t seen a costumer in weeks. Just look and watch the gray market. Same watches are sitting there and in the sales section once hit watches like the 5 digit gmt are not sold after several pages of bumps. The top .0001 percent may not be impacted but everyone else is or will be, and there is not enough .0001 per centers to keep demand at levels prepandemic; it’s simply math.

[LJubel328]

Originally Posted by enjoythemusic

Interesting outlier in April of 2014. I wonder what caused the spike.

[enjoythemusic]

Hmm, i forget what the April blip was, yet look at CMBX Series 6 chart.

BOOM! Shorting commercial RE months ago has been, and still is, a great play imho :)

[Marcjvr]

Originally Posted by Yess

It's a US dominant board.
You need to filter what is happening in America vs the rest of the world. The dominant voice here reflects the US, not the whole world. There's very different experiences with Rolex both pre-and-post Covid depending on your global location.

How’s the economy doing where you live?

[jakjakman]

Sure, I bet the waiting lists are just as long if not longer right now, while people are bored at home and the full economic repercussions haven't spread out. Later this year when ADs start working through those long wait lists, I imagine they'll find that a lot of those people will pass.

The real turning point will be once the second hand price for a hard-to-get SS piece hits MSRP + grey mark-up. Once there's no profit for flippers, flipping will be dead and another large chunk of the wait list will drop.

[Benzsiam]

Recession/Depression is coming, but the demand for SS hot models are still over the supply for sure. I don't think we will see the day that these high demand models will be on the window of the showroom ready for purchase.

[Podmornica]

Originally Posted by Benzsiam

Recession/Depression is coming, but the demand for SS hot models are still over the supply for sure. I don't think we will see the day that these high demand models will be on the window of the showroom ready for purchase.

Probably, but only because the dealers would stash it away trying to make it look like the hype is still there. They cannot accept the reality of putting the GMT back in the window anytime soon as it would hurt the demand and the selling numbers. As soon as something is available readily it is not that interested anymore. People want to have what they cant get.

Next step would be someone asking for a discount on that hot window pieces like just 3 years ago and they sure don't want that.

[Tricolore66]

It’s going to take awhile before the economic effects of CV start being felt in a significant way by the demographic that buys luxury goods like Rolex and Patek, but if things don’t turn around with a vaccine or effective treatment it will happen.

The vast majority of the newly unemployed are service industry and retail workers, and a hostess at a Waffle House isn’t exactly the target market for Rolex. The bigger economic issue might be for business owners who can’t get these service employees to come back if they’re making a reported average of 135% of their working wages staying unemployed.

[sgwatchguy]

Originally Posted by Rexplorer214270

This part doesn't make AD's look good:

"One authorized dealer, who spoke to WatchPro on condition of anonymity, said he did not expect Rolex or Patek Philippe to significantly ramp up production of unicorn watches, adding that he thought it was good for the market that they remain too rare to be sold to walk-up customers.
“I don’t want to see [Rolex Submariner] Hulks in windows. Demand should exceed supply for these special watches,” he suggests."

Agree with parts of what he says. Demand should remain higher than supply for special watches. Keeps them special.

[MacanS]

Originally Posted by Tricolore66

It’s going to take awhile before the economic effects of CV start being felt in a significant way by the demographic that buys luxury goods like Rolex and Patek, but if things don’t turn around with a vaccine or effective treatment it will happen.

The vast majority of the newly unemployed are service industry and retail workers, and a hostess at a Waffle House isn’t exactly the target market for Rolex. The bigger economic issue might be for business owners who can’t get these service employees to come back if they’re making a reported average of 135% of their working wages staying unemployed.

Spot on. And I think how quickly we can reopen without catastrophe will be a barometer for the true economic impact once the money printers run out of ink

Looking around at my state TN we have been pretty much open with restaurants and bars for a week and a half. Really longer as people were packing into stores like Home Depot and parks and such. I have connections at a large hospital that does much of the testing in the region, and we really haven’t seen a crazy upticks in positive cases. While the news media like to harp on a two week incubation period, many studies show the median is 4 to 5 days with 97% showing symptoms before 11 days. This hospital has also have a COVID census of 30 pretty much the entire time.

I think we may have gotten lucky. This thing spread extremely quickly, but wasn’t a Spanish flu in terms of death count. I think the iceberg theory holds true in that we were only seeing the worst of the worst in hospitals in various regions not because it has a large chance of creating critical illness in individuals, but rather so many people had this, but had minor to symptoms so we are vastly under representing the scale, so things like case fatality rate are skewed.

[PatrickGu]

Originally Posted by Chester01

Listen, industry insiders want to create th illusion of business as normal and not scare folks. No salesman ever says wow, demand has died, haven’t seen a costumer in weeks. Just look and watch the gray market. Same watches are sitting there and in the sales section once hit watches like the 5 digit gmt are not sold after several pages of bumps. The top .0001 percent may not be impacted but everyone else is or will be, and there is not enough .0001 per centers to keep demand at levels prepandemic; it’s simply math.

This! ^

[harvey]

The UK government has put a plaster on the cut, by providing businesses with grants, loans and money for furloughed employees. When it comes time to pulling off that plaster, it’s going to be a bloodbath.