Rolex and crypto

[shirtguy]

During the height of crypto rolex watches were super hot

Pple sold their bitcoin and that was the main reason for prices to soar.

Bitcoin prices dropped and we saw a decline in prices.

Now that crypto is at its high why didn't we see.the prices rise again?

[Tim Plains]

Personally, I think interest rates had more of an impact on the Rolex market than crypto did.

[Blanch]

Social media is dying down and people are posting less and less photos flexing a "luxury lifestyle."

[Yup]

Who cares? I came here for watches go somewhere else for cryptocurrency talk

[DoubleDeac]

Well movement of Rolex and Crypto are a mere correlation based on the macro economic climate. During the height of low interest and easy money being spread out by the government and the Fed, consumer spending in just about everything (save travel) were up. We are no longer in those same times and the Fed is making sure of it with high fed funds rates and curtailing circulating money. The latest rally of bitcoin is being driven by the approval of spot ETFs and the halving that is happening soon - a lot of speculators are hungry to make a quick buck… on the other hand, there is no opportunity like this in the realm of Rolex and thus, you don’t have speculators jumping in and artificially pumping in market value like we’ve previously seen

[Krash]

I disagree with the underlying premise. I think the rising value of the stock market and home values over the last 8 years have more to do with it than Crypto.

In the last couple of years inflation was a big factor, but the markets are way up.

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[4reRlxGuy]

I know of several watch collectors offloading pieces last few weekw to increase their exposure in cryptocurrency

[omar-rye]

Originally Posted by shirtguy

Now that crypto is at its high why didn't we see.the prices rise again?

...well doesn't that answer or debunk your first theory, observation, or whatever you want to call it?

[4reRlxGuy]

The covid watch craze IMHO was fueled by a perfect storm. Cheap $, free PPP $, people stuck at home with nowhere to spend $, and a lot of hype (watch asset returns beating wall street and real estate).

[Krash]

Originally Posted by 4reRlxGuy

I know of several watch collectors offloading pieces last few weekw to increase their exposure in cryptocurrency

Sounds like a liquidity problem to me.


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[Krash]

Originally Posted by 4reRlxGuy

The covid watch craze IMHO was fueled by a perfect storm. Cheap $, free PPP $, people stuck at home with nowhere to spend $, and a lot of hype (watch asset returns beating wall street and real estate).

The “watch craze” began a couple years before COVID. People keep losing sight of that.


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[77T]

A causal fallacy: incorrectly concluding the cause of an event.

I blame Netflix.
Here is a chained logic set piece:

Demand rose beyond the supply chain

Funded by easy credit, CC purchases

Sub-marketing during F1 races

Netflix Drive to Survive immerses viewers and they gotta get a Rollie...




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[4reRlxGuy]

Really? I was declining duplicate steel models (except daytonas and pepsis) being offered into the later part of 2018. I know in 2019 supply started to tighten up

[matPORTS]

The difference between the last crypto bull run and the forthcoming crypto bull run.

We don't (at least not yet touch wood) have lockdown strangling the supply chain with manufacturing facilities not operating, slow turnarounds with shipping, and store fronts not operating.

Agreed also - interest rates being at all time lows along with plenty of government stimulus, and coupled with the fact that people weren't spending money on things like luxury holidays, created the perfect storm for the watch industry & luxury goods industry in general.

A lot of people made a lot of money in the financial markets, the crypto market, and by flipping luxury goods and luxury cars during the pandemic. A lot of these same people would have also lost a lot of money, or lost the opportunity to make a good profit, in the aftermath - either by not being smart with the liquidated profits that they did make, or they were left holding the bags thinking that the markets were just going to keep rising because of what they were being told via social media.

While BTC has created a new high during this rally over the past couple of weeks - a big reason why the market appears to have now stagnated is we would have had a lot of people liquidating... just happy to get out where they should have really got out in late 2021.

It's actually very similar to people now who are still trying to get Rolexes at retail thinking they can be flipped. You might still see grey market dealers trying to sell two-tone Bluesy Subs at $1000-2000 above MSRP. But the grey market dealer is probably going to offer you $1000-2000 below MSRP if you take it to them trying to flip it.

[Krash]

Originally Posted by 77T

A causal fallacy: incorrectly concluding the cause of an event.

I blame Netflix.
Here is a chained logic set piece:

Demand rose beyond the supply chain

Funded by easy credit, CC purchases

Sub-marketing during F1 races

Netflix Drive to Survive immerses viewers and they gotta get a Rollie...




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In ancient times, people blamed meteors (shooting stars) for famines and droughts. They saw a meteor right before the drought and famine began. Therefore, the meteor must have been the reason.

But in all seriousness, I do believe the equity markets are a much bigger factor than crypto. The reason is very simple. Equity markets are much more mainstream. More people invest in the stock market than crypto. The stock market is going crazy now.

The watch craze started in 2018. The Hulk, Daytona and Batman were impossible to acquire. In 2020, COVID kicked in, factories shut down, supply chains grinded to a halt, and this reduced supply, which further drove prices up on the secondary market.

More recently, inflation and higher interest rates started to drag down the economy at a macro level, thereby also impacting the watch market.

Meanwhile, the equity markets are now soaring led by AI and technology stocks, and this is beginning to fuel the demand for luxury watches. Bitcoin also became much easier to invest in. Traditional investors (like me) can now purchase it via exchange traded funds (ETFs). Once Bitcoin became easier to invest in, it skyrocketed and I believe it will continue to rise.


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[77T]

I like blaming Netflix


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[TC94]

Originally Posted by Yup

Who cares? I came here for watches go somewhere else for cryptocurrency talk

Welcome to the Forum. Always good to start out by telling others what they can and can’t do.

https://www.rolexforums.com/showthre...9#post13185709

Apparently a lot of people in this thread like to discuss Rolex demand, supply, and their relationship with investment performance of various asset classes.

Rather than telling others what to talk about, how about just not opening a thread that clearly states it’s about “Crypto.”

[jb335]

The BTC bull run happened quick, give it a minute to reflect in the watch market.


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[jb335]

Originally Posted by Blanch

Social media is dying down and people are posting less and less photos flexing a "luxury lifestyle."

Definitely don’t see or agree with that.


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[omx5o]

We haven't even reached the bitcoin halving yet, which occurs next month. It's usually several months after that when things really get moving.

[JSolution]

Im a crypto advocate.

However, there is zero correlation between btc and watches.

[0nly5iv3Digits]

Retail is just getting into BTC now that they see it hasn't "died".... Just wait another 6-12 months.

I suspect prices will tick upwards for our lovely watches.

[Mathematoxic]

Most people buy bitcoin to earn money. During the previous rise in bitcoin prices, watches are on the rise too and bitcoin investors saw that as an alternative “asset” to park their money.
Today’s watch market paints a different story. Watch buyers who are concerned with prices would be thankful if they could even get back 90% of what they paid buying the watch from the secondary market. So no, majority of bitcoin money is not coming into the watch market.

[MrMikee]

Originally Posted by 4reRlxGuy

The covid watch craze IMHO was fueled by a perfect storm. Cheap $, free PPP $, people stuck at home with nowhere to spend $, and a lot of hype (watch asset returns beating wall street and real estate).

This 100%

[Devildog]

Originally Posted by shirtguy

During the height of crypto rolex watches were super hot

Pple sold their bitcoin and that was the main reason for prices to soar.

Bitcoin prices dropped and we saw a decline in prices.

Now that crypto is at its high why didn't we see.the prices rise again?

Because those for whom crypto is a significant in their financial makeup only form a very small part of the Rolex buying demograph.

[HHIslander]

Originally Posted by Devildog

Because those for whom crypto is a significant in their financial makeup only form a very small part of the Rolex buying demographic:

A very small part indeed. I would add that they are very loud too.

[forg]

There is no real connection between Bitcoin and watches

[thesharkfactor]

..because crypto currency is a Ponzi scheme, Rolex watches are not.

[brandrea]

It probably has more to do with interest rates and falling asset values than BTC IMHO

[Harry-57]

I blame the parents.

It could also be something to do with interest rates and what has caused them to go back to more realistic levels. There's no such thing as free money and the illusion of it can't last forever.