Can You Ever Envisage 2nd Hand Mkt Value Falling Below RRP

[dannyboy123]

This is a leading question that dovetails with a query I raised last week regarding a buy/don't buy scenario.

I have a Rootbeer and a Slate YM and last year I was supremely lucky to land a rose gold olive DD and a Bluesy. Very happy with them all.

I have been given the opportunity to buy the black dialled rose gold Daytona on oysterflex at RRP. My taste preference being the sundust version that "isn't going to be available any time soon".

If I elected to buy and subsequently succumbed to buyers remorse, can you ever see a scenario where I won't get back close to the RRP outlay should I move it on?

This thread isn't about investment or flipping - I have kept all my watches over the years aside from my 5 digit sub - its about not loosing your shirt if the bonding process doesn't work out.

BTW I have the cash on hand for this. Not using finance.

My own thoughts are "I can't loose".

I guess I went through a similar thought process with the DD simply because its a huge outlay.

[Roger Lococco]

Yes. I can most definitely imagine it falling well below retail.


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[Stupot]

Every watch you just mentioned is around or under list in the UK now.

Take off the grey dealer’s margin and what they will actually cash purchase it from yourself at will give you a shock.

You will be sitting on a fair loss there.

[WilsdorfNDavis]

You might not loose but you certainly could lose...



Daytonas have been in demand for a long time but that reference is one of the lower demanded ones and no one knows the future so there is always a possibility of it going below retail.

[Marcjvr]

You are going to lose. Only question is how much

[Callmepeshy]

Originally Posted by Stupot

Every watch you just mentioned is around or under list in the UK now.

Take off the grey dealer’s margin and what they will actually cash purchase it from yourself at will give you a shock.

You will be sitting on a fair loss there.

What do you mean about them being under retail in the UK? I haven’t noticed anything being under, other than some small sized DJs and OPs etc.

[csaltphoto]

From what I've read here just about anything is difficult to get in NZ so your market might be different. On the whole, TT's trade at slightly below retail and the YM close to retail. DD's are harder to track but generally seem a little like the luxury car market. People want the latest and greatest.

[dannyboy123]

Originally Posted by Callmepeshy

What do you mean about them being under retail in the UK? I haven’t noticed anything being under, other than some small sized DJs and OPs etc.

I'm very interested in this comment too. D'you mean that UK based grey dealers are selling new/unworn watches lower than RRP (I gather back in the day this was not uncommon, esp for PM models).

The NZ market is a bit different. we have just 2 AD's here for the whole country, but I guess we have a far smaller population too.

anyway, quite interested in clarification of this.

as for my original query it seems shirt loss is probable down the track, so only buy for love and to hold.

I think I prefer it to my DD.

[Fleetlord]

Soft model.

[TudorDXB]

I can perhaps give some insight on the market here in the UAE:

CHNR: from a secondary dealer I can perhaps get a brand new 2023 for approx. AED 68k to 69k. Retail price is 66k. If you buy it from the AD, no secondary retailer will offer you the retail price thus making an instant loss.

126613LB: I was offered a 2024 new one by a secondary dealer at 58k whilst the retail is 64k. Therefore if you try to sell a brand new one, you will incur an instant loss.

[rg9390]

I am in Hong Kong, where second-hand/grey market dealer trading has a high volume, let alone 20-30 ADs around town.

I see except SS GMT II, Daytona (all model except TT), SS Sub, any Rolex you buy now and 'flip' or resale straight away will not be over retail. You may not be able to buy an Explorer II Polar at retail from grey dealers, but your grey dealer, at best will pay you retail for it (or thereabouts).

Watches, including Rolex are luxury items, and should generally depreciate. I am just glad that Rolex depreciates a lot slower than some other brands, and after wearing it for 5 to 10 years, the value is still more than 1/2 of what you paid for. What luxury goods provide such a good value these days?

[omar-rye]

Am I the only one who loves the sound of Rolex selling under retail?

[colonelpurple]

count on it

[WatchesUAE]

If there's an oversupply of a particular product in the second-hand market, sellers may compete by undercutting each other, driving prices below the RRP. If an item is heavily used, damaged, or otherwise not in excellent condition, its resale value can drop below the RRP.

[kopi-c]

Originally Posted by omar-rye

Am I the only one who loves the sound of Rolex selling under retail?

That makes two :)

[7enderbender]

I think the only “safe” model in your scenario was the 5-digit sub. All “precious metal” models I think are at risk of losing value.
If markets turn and the watch hype dies off again, even more so.

[colonelpurple]

I always tell people, the minute you walk out of the jeweller with your new shiny watch, it’s lost half its value.

Rolex owners have been lucky since 2017 due to supply and demand but Rolex is building a new factory to come in line in 2025 and combined with a soft recession anything can happen. Of course a continuing to prosper china could keep the value up, who knows.

But anyone who buys something they can’t really afford on the basis that it will keep value is a very bad idea.

I always say, if the day after buying the watch you drop it and it falls through a sewer grill uninsured and you loose all the value, and it doesn’t effect your lifestyle one bit, then that is the only comfortable way to buy a luxury product

[cdm765]

Most models will and should trade under retail.

As someone who has collected for 12 years or so, I can assure you that things weren’t so bad when only Daytona (maybe a few other select pieces) traded over retail. Takes absolutely nothing away from this wonderful hobby and opens the door to more participation.

[taitun4life]

Originally Posted by tudordxb

i can perhaps give some insight on the market here in the uae:

Chnr: From a secondary dealer i can perhaps get a brand new 2023 for approx. Aed 68k to 69k. Retail price is 66k. If you buy it from the ad, no secondary retailer will offer you the retail price thus making an instant loss.

126613lb: I was offered a 2024 new one by a secondary dealer at 58k whilst the retail is 64k. Therefore if you try to sell a brand new one, you will incur an instant loss.

💯

[77T]

If you can overcome buyers remorse then it won't matter. As long as you're sure you want the watch, you have the cash, then pull the trigger is my motto.


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[brandrea]

Think of it like a holiday. It’s a sunk cost, but you have constant memories (only on your wrist)

[travisb]

You'd lose money. It's just a question of how much.
It's not something I ever take into consideration when buying a watch.

[Devildog]

Originally Posted by Callmepeshy

What do you mean about them being under retail in the UK? I haven’t noticed anything being under, other than some small sized DJs and OPs etc.

My thoughts exactly. You cannot currently pick up any of the watches Dannyboy has at or under retail if unworn/BNIB in the secondary retail market. Most are still priced way above retail.

What you'll be offered, however, is a different story.

Originally Posted by dannyboy123

I'm very interested in this comment too. D'you mean that UK based grey dealers are selling new/unworn watches lower than RRP (I gather back in the day this was not uncommon, esp for PM models).

The NZ market is a bit different. we have just 2 AD's here for the whole country, but I guess we have a far smaller population too.

anyway, quite interested in clarification of this.

as for my original query it seems shirt loss is probable down the track, so only buy for love and to hold.

I think I prefer it to my DD.

No, UK based secondary retailers (technically they're not grey market) are not selling new/unworn watches below RRP (yet).

Your market may be different, but I think you'd take a decent hit on that Daytona if selling to a "grey" You would in the UK.

[Giovannibravo]

Chrono24 is the last place I would look for pricing. I would say the NZ is a similar market to Canada. We seem to have many pieces falling in price. However, the limited supply compared to other markets is keeping the prices a little higher. Also, factor the price of import duties when in smaller markets. I would say you are going to lose. Once wore them, they drop in price significantly. My advice to you is to buy what you like and where it forever.

[AK797]

Generally the rule with Rolex was you would lose 20-30% depending on model once you bought it, often 50% with Omega and Breitling so Rolex was always considered the value watch. I think for a luxury good this is fair, if you can buy it and sell it the next day for more then it is not a lux good but an investment trade available to anyone with a credit card, so then demand goes thru the roof, as we seen, and then availability becomes the key issue.

Personally I prefer the old days, when the price was the key factor, not the availability.

For the popular SS I don't see prices going close back to retail anytime soon, we used to say a Black Swan event was the only thing that could derail this raging bull market back in 18/19 and then we get Covid and the opposite happens, market goes into overdrive for various reasons, so there will always be pressure on prices to stay up, just too much in it for so many industry players, unless something truly catastrophic happens in which case no one will care about watches.

[joli160]

All your current watches will take a hit sooner or later.

[fsprow]

Anything I buy – cars, watches, homes, etc. I buy with the expectation that I will enjoy it and use it regularly. I anticipate that it will lose value by the time it is ultimately sold if in fact it is. Sometimes I get a surprise on the upside or the downside, but I’m happy enough to have the product that I accept that. Only for true investments (stocks etc, not modern watches ) do I expect gains and of course that doesn’t always work out.

[1William]

Great watch. Wear it and enjoy it. Over time you will break even or even do better than you paid. In the short term, it will be a loss.

[East of Eden]

Originally Posted by 7enderbender

I think the only “safe” model in your scenario was the 5-digit sub. All “precious metal” models I think are at risk of losing value.
If markets turn and the watch hype dies off again, even more so.

That’s because the PM models are ridiculously overpriced to begin with, far above the gold value

[espanol]

Investing- allocating capital with the expectation of future production. This could be farmland producing crops, buying equities with the expectation of dividends, real estate with rent. The key is you pay for something and get something in return.

Speculating- not investing. You’re buying and will only recoup what the next T, D or H will offer you later on. It produces nothing. What makes your watch unique enough for another person to want to pay more later on? Probably nothing.

There’s my elementary finance lesson, folks.