Slowing sales, will we get back to the past soon?

[Ferrari-F430]

It appears that the Rolex market has slowed, at least the grey market, with the economy impacting a lot of people and interest rates through the roof, luxury purchases are not what they used to be.

I'm sure many will argue that Rolex is not impacted because those that are buying them have enough wealth to get them through the economic changes.. true for most of us, but it does and will impact those that jumped in and created the rush if you ask me... most luxury items are seeing a big hit right now.

So with Rolex opening 3 new factories and temporary factories to increase production, will get see a lull in the market in the next year or two? I know we all dream and welcome the day we can walk into a Rolex dealer again and buy our dream watch immediately, but will that make it "not special" because it's not rare anymore and of course every single flipper will be out of the game because they won't be able to make money?

I, for one, will admit that back in the day when you could walk into Rolex and get that dream watch or have it within a month or so, I took it for granted and never rushed to get what I wanted... because I knew it was always there. There's a mentality to wanting something you can't get, and that will be gone... possibly soon?

This is not a "the sky is falling" post, but just a theoretic look at the potential future... what do you think?

I have a long list of wants... but if everything is readily available, is it not as special?

[brandrea]

IMHO, things tend to work in cycles. It my never go back to those days you refer to, but things are slowly improving.

[travisb]

It's definitely better than it was a couple of years ago but who knows how much better it will get.

[THC]

No

[Marcjvr]

Yes

[1William]

Interesting perspective and I always try to look to the optimistic side of things. While things have improved the difficult watches to get are still difficult. SS Daytona's, BLRO's, Blue Sky-Dwellers, you get the feel. The new manufacturing facility will not open until 2029 and even then when will it be able to reach capacity and what is capacity. No one has said the manufacturing goal of Rolex. The temporary facility is just that and what kind of impact will that have on availability in a worldwide market place. I just don't see those numbers having an impact. As far as being able to get a watch on demand or within a short wait time so many chase status through having what others can not get or are waiting on. Nothing wrong with that but it will impact the market, if and when it happens. Also, when watch prices adjust to msrp or downward because of availability then many will try to sell along the ride down that the secondary market will be flooded and prices will be further depressed. Great for the collector but not the owner who saw this as a good place to park funds or speculate. In the end we do not have enough information to do anything but speculate about what we currently know and it is interesting to discuss and be hopeful for the future.

[Harry-57]

Originally Posted by Ferrari-F430

I'm sure many will argue that Rolex is not impacted because those that are buying them have enough wealth to get them through the economic changes.. true for most of us, but it does and will impact those that jumped in and created the rush if you ask me... most luxury items are seeing a big hit right now.

The "old money" community are seldom affected and some have good relationships with Rolex ADs going back generations. For the rest of the watch loving community (including most of us) it's bound to improve as production creeps up and the faddishness of wearing a Rolex and plastering it all over the internet moves on. This has in part been fueled by the fallacy of watches always being good investments and people who define wealth as their ability to borrow money. It goes in cycles. The trend is now in our favour but the size of the trend and its benefit to us is anybody's guess.

Originally Posted by Ferrari-F430

I have a long list of wants... but if everything is readily available, is it not as special?

Depends on the individual. Some people are sheep, some, some people know what they want and don't care what other people think or what they have, some people don't want something if everyone else can have it. Makes no difference as long as we are each happy with our choices. To me, special doesn't depend on rarity or trends. I know what I like.

[BreitSF]

Great post and I’ve been wondering the same thing. The other thought I’d had is that maybe older, neo-vintage, references go up in value due to scarcity. For instance, Daytona’s are obviously very hot and sought after. But, what happens if the production comes closer to meeting demand (I said CLOSER for a reason, as I still think there will be a gap between supply and demand)? What happens to the price of Zenith Daytonas or 116520’s? Do those maintain value while modern reference prices get closer to retail?

[t65tampa]

Maybe

[enjoythemusic]

Originally Posted by Ferrari-F430

It appears that the Rolex market has slowed,

Yes, as has many parts of the luxury goods market. Home and auto sales have slowed as well. Food prices have experienced massive cost inflation in the past few years.

So with Rolex opening 3 new factories and temporary factories to increase production, will get see a lull in the market in the next year or two? I know we all dream and welcome the day we can walk into a Rolex dealer again and buy our dream watch immediately...

Yes, the market should reach back to historic norms, tho to be fair more people are now aware / desire timepieces. Rolex will have expanded facilities to help support their ever-growing amount of production, which also needs occasional servicing.

...but will that make it "not special" because it's not rare anymore and of course every single flipper will be out of the game because they won't be able to make money?

You mean like it was only a handful of years ago? Back to historic norms is fine.

There's a mentality to wanting something you can't get, and that will be gone... possibly soon?

Sounds like an assumption based on human behavior. The later is solid thinking. There are MANY more humans who desire timepieces today than only a handful or two of years ago. Sure the market is slowing down, central banks stopped their massive free giveaways and, appropriately, currency devaluation (a.k.a. inflation) has 'caught up' as there's a normal 'delay'.

Rolex is fine, and it'll be great to have 'normal' wait times.

[Gearjockey]

None of these answers so far address the OP question regarding the economy and demand, mostly just supply. Once the US election has concluded next year and money supply has dried up, I believe we will see massive demand shift, notwithstanding greater global conflict. Aggression toward Silicon Valley East? Game over.

[Kinnakeet]

Meanwhile, there are several other nice brand and great watches other than Rolex.

Husband just bought an IWC pilot 43, a wonderful watch. Myself a Navitemer 41 on bracelet. I would say superior of a bracelet and more comfortable than Rolex, both much nicer than Daytonas IMO.

Once out of the Rolex grip there is a lot going on.

[enjoythemusic]

Originally Posted by Gearjockey

None of these answers so far address the OP question regarding the economy and demand, mostly just supply. Once the US election has concluded next year and money supply has dried up, I believe we will see massive demand shift, notwithstanding greater global conflict. Aggression toward Silicon Valley East? Game over.

i did... i'll keep it simple.

More people are now buying in general. Awareness has expanded.

Production will find equilibrium to historical norms, tho remember more people in general desire timepieces.

NOTE: The past few years were just a very BRIEF bubble. DO NOT use the past few years as a 'New Normal', we all know it certainly was not.

[codecow]

I was at my AD last weekend and there was a constant parade of folks wanting colored OP watches and steel Daytonas.

If they had stock on hand they would have sold several of each while I was sitting there chatting and taking a delivery.

I’m guessing the pent up unsatisfied demand in major markets would blow through more than they’d want to deliver even with increased production. I’m guessing a lot of the new production will go towards Datejust and PM sports models.

[Dave O]

Originally Posted by 1William

Interesting perspective and I always try to look to the optimistic side of things. While things have improved the difficult watches to get are still difficult. SS Daytona's, BLRO's, Blue Sky-Dwellers, you get the feel. The new manufacturing facility will not open until 2029 and even then when will it be able to reach capacity and what is capacity. No one has said the manufacturing goal of Rolex. The temporary facility is just that and what kind of impact will that have on availability in a worldwide market place. I just don't see those numbers having an impact. As far as being able to get a watch on demand or within a short wait time so many chase status through having what others can not get or are waiting on. Nothing wrong with that but it will impact the market, if and when it happens. Also, when watch prices adjust to msrp or downward because of availability then many will try to sell along the ride down that the secondary market will be flooded and prices will be further depressed. Great for the collector but not the owner who saw this as a good place to park funds or speculate. In the end we do not have enough information to do anything but speculate about what we currently know and it is interesting to discuss and be hopeful for the future.

I have little to no compassion for these type of people. A watch never should have been something to invest in or park your funds in. All you have to do is look at history. Watches only took off in price recently. Prior to that, the vast majority of watches did not hold their value. If you want to park your funds, go see an investment fund specialist and not follow the crowd which has no idea what to invest in. All this trend did was to force people like us who love watches to compete against those who wanted them for an investment - keeping said watches out of our hands.

To the OP. I believe the Rolex market is turning much as you suggest. And I relish the day we can get back to some sort of normalcy and watches can be available to those that cherish them, and not someone who sees it as an investment. People don't do this with most other watch brands and they are relatively available. It's just Rolex and one or two other brands that are not the norm.

[Mystro]

It’s a cycle. After 35+ years of Rolex ownership and watching the brand evolve first hand it could very well get worse. The assumption of a new manufacturing plant will equal more product to the public is flawed. Rolex isn’t the same brand it was a few years ago and Rolex control of their brand is even more absolute regardless of a new factory in the future. Rolex won’t let their display cases ever be filled again and they have made that very clear with cutting back AD’s and supplying display/demo models.


Maybe when you can see 8-10 SS DJ models sitting in a display case then one might dare to think its getting better but we are so far away of watches in any display case of 8 years ago it’s unrecognizable.

When I read the Rolex tea leaves they never go back to the way they were ever again regardless what the economy does. At best we may see times like a few months before the 2020 Covid bubble.

[Calatrava r]

As more and more Rolex models start to sell on the used market below retail such as the WG Sub, the demand for new models at ADs will fall off. The allure of Rolex has been the risk-free ownership, buy wear it for a while and then move it on and break even or make a little money. Once there is a real cost to ownership, there will be less buyers just on a whim, taking anything offered to just to keep in good graces with an AD or just trying to build relationships with ADs.

[mpkRolex]

I think we will go back to getting 5% discounts at AD just like 7-8 years back.

[Yobber76]

Originally Posted by Kinnakeet

Meanwhile, there are several other nice brand and great watches other than Rolex.

Husband just bought an IWC pilot 43, a wonderful watch. Myself a Navitemer 41 on bracelet. I would say superior of a bracelet and more comfortable than Rolex, both much nicer than Daytonas IMO.

Once out of the Rolex grip there is a lot going on.

Those are 2 brands that always catch my eye when I look at watches!

[espanol]

Originally Posted by codecow

I was at my AD last weekend and there was a constant parade of folks wanting colored OP watches and steel Daytonas.

If they had stock on hand they would have sold several of each while I was sitting there chatting and taking a delivery.

This has been my experience as well.

Personally, I'm more of a 5-digit Rolex guy. But I think for the masses, or more the luxury market, the Rolex catalogue has never been better for that group. The products right now are extremely successful to those seeking luxury, shiny eye-catching watches.

Unless new products 'flop,' I don't see ADs having any troubles selling most models.

[Neil McCauley]

Here we go again

[Jack T]

Rolex will keep a tight reign on availability, apart from the demand surge they have been closing and consolidating retail outlets, that’s likely to continue.

Fortunately there is a world of watches to explore and enjoy, great timepieces, beautiful designs and well made.

[Mystro]

Originally Posted by Neil McCauley

Here we go again

It’s fun nostalgia to think about it but those days are long gone.

Ah yes I remember the days of even getting a discount from David was the norm…….

At best the grey market is “stabile” now.

[Kevin of Larchmont]

Originally Posted by Ferrari-F430

It appears that the Rolex market has slowed, at least the grey market…

Part of this is a result of the introduction of Rolex CPO and its diverting from the greys the dollars of the people who want to shop Rolex’s back catalog. And the fresh RSC service and two years of warranty only sweetens the appeal, just as Rolex strategized.

[codecow]

Originally Posted by espanol

This has been my experience as well.

Personally, I'm more of a 5-digit Rolex guy. But I think for the masses, or more the luxury market, the Rolex catalogue has never been better for that group. The products right now are extremely successful to those seeking luxury, shiny eye-catching watches.

Unless new products 'flop,' I don't see ADs having any troubles selling most models.

Even pre-pandemic, thinking back to around the time the six digit Pepsi came out at my AD there was a constant stream of people coming in wanting to see sports models.

At the time in the case they had maybe YMs, SD, a Skydweller or two, YM2, and maybe Milgauss, Explorer, OP, TT/oysterflex Daytona, and maybe every once in a while something like a PM sub or GMT.

Back then, a constant stream of people wanting a steel Daytona, Pepsi, or Batman. If I was in the store for an hour I’d see 4-5 people come through asking for them and leaving their info. This was pre-pandemic.

So demand has exceeded supply for those references for a long time now and there’s no reason to see that stopping. It’s good for Rolex to have people come in and look at the exhibition pieces and think about getting one.

[Yobber76]

Does anyone ever remember a Rolex market like the past 6-7 years?
There were always some in-demand watches, but anything that had the Rolex name on it was suddenly "Rare and in demand" and everyone had to have it.
Rolex, Bourbon, Boats, luxury cars, homes, demand went thru the roof.
Why is Pappy Van Winkle 23 year $4-5000 a bottle? I've owned and tasted the 10 year, 12 year, and 15 year versions (all bought at MSRP) and it's very nice, but it ain't $1500-2000 a bottle nice.
So, companies have learned to market people with a "why wait, you can have it all now" view of everything. Experience the best of everything, now! Want a BLRO? MSRP $10,700? Pshaw, you could be dead tomorrow! Buy it today, wear it tomorrow, only $23,000!!!!!! What a deal!!!! I'll take one, a white dial Daytona, a Bluesy, and a DD 40 Please!!!
It ain't just Rolex watches, it's whatever you can convince the market they can't live without. And it has worked, for any number of reasons, and for a variety of products and experiences.
As long as that kind of attitude exists in the market place, and there is perception of want and need coexisting, it won't go back to you can buy a Rolex today at a discount.

[Brich436]

Yes and no.

No its not going to go back to the early 2000s when I could see and buy any reference (minus the Daytona) on the spot and negotiate 5-18% off MSPR from the AD. Back in those days I had one AD beg me to buy the Hulk. Said he couldn't sell it and that all of his clients hated green. Imagine that!

Yes, supply will come up in the next few years with the new factory being build but it will never be able to fully satisfy demand. Rising incomes the world over is bring the brand of Rolex to new heights and this is just a slowing of demand not a crash.

[panerai-lover111]

I reckon the watch market is in serious trouble.

I've been paying attention to some local dealers and they have had the same stock for > 6 months now. Nothing is moving and they keep removing the listing marking as "Sold" and relisting the same watch over and over again with price drops.

I was going to buy a new watch for my 40th which is coming up soon. Think I might just wait a little longer. There is still room for BIG drops to happen imho.

With all the new stock arriving every month as well - there is going to be some pain in the coming years. We are going back to pretty much everything under RRP imho especially after the last price rises.

P.S dont even try to trade or sell. The prices you will get is horrendous. I got a shock on how much the dealers are willing to pay for my watches.

[Resto]

Wilsdorf's philosophy for Rolex and Tudor was 'only great marketing is needed to make a company successful'

Post pandemic Rolex will limit supply despite opening new factories. Limited supply will increase demand as we have seen. I doubt the market will ever go back to "the good ole days..."

[hutch300]

I was offered a blue TT sub as a walk in with an SA who didn't know I was an existing customer yesterday. I think things are definitely opening up.