Your thoughts about current market and Rolex supply

[BraveBold]

Originally Posted by Tim Plains

The car market is returning to normal, I saw a commercial for 0.99% financing for F-150s just yesterday, Porsche values are dropping drastically. I'd say Rolex will follow suit soon enough.

Drastic drops - maybe a question of definition?

Just checked BAT and compared to my insurance coverage for one of my Porsches (997.2 4S manual). My coverage was increased to market near the height of the bubble. $85k for a 40,000 mile, great condition, highly demanded spec sheet. Asks at that time (though admittedly a less common car, maybe 5 comps listed nationally) - about $100-$110k. A less desirable but similar car, 50% MORE mileage, just sold on BAT this month for $72k. Given mileage, it easily puts my car around $80-$85k. BAT usually transacts at higher end of market so I’ll call my car $80k as it sits. Not exactly a dramatic decline.

Newer Porsches… well, I received my allocation for a GT4 back in 2016 or so. At the time they were in high enough demand that I could have flipped my allocation for a 20-25%+ immediate profit. In 2016…

I see Porsche prices cooling, though less so for the truly more desirable, mid-tier collectible cars (like my manual 997.2 4S coupe). Perhaps more so for any moderns trading above msrp well into 6 figures. I don’t see any big declines unless we have a protracted recession. That is unlikely as the Fed now has significant dry powder after this rapid rate increase cycle. Any real downturn will take the legs our of inflation and will allow for a rate cut. Especially during an election year.

The sports car market, watches, long list of various collectibles. All have segments that have been hit pretty hard already. Plenty areas of continued resilience, however. Doesn’t feel like a buyer’s market right now for most areas but we may get there in the next few months. I am pretty indifferent one way or the other.

[Krash]

I don’t really pay attention to what’s going on in the aftermarket to be perfectly honest. 1) I’m not buying a used or gray market watch. 2) I’m not selling any of my watches.

Some watches might be easier to get now (I suppose), but fact is, most people still can’t walk into an AD and get the watch they want. That’s all that matters to me.

But I suspect the economy will get worse, not better over the next year, so many people will have a lot more to worry about then getting a new Rolex. So that’s going to be a huge factor in terms of both availability at an AD and after market pricing.



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[Podmornica]

1.) Grey dealers will not pay in cash for anything these days unless it's a brutal low ball. All they will do is a consignment.

2.) Dozens of unsold popular references on Chrono24 for weeks in my portfolio. Nothing moves.

3.) Majority of those on the Rolex wait lists at the AD who were clogging the lists for years are nothing more but flippers who are now having the cold feet once they get the call for a plain Submariner as they don't know what to do with it. They never wanted it in the first place and selling it next door to a grey dealer is not working anymore.

Selling it to the private individuals is both risky and uncertain. Team that with high Chrono or other platform fees doesn't make it any better.

[Tim Plains]

Originally Posted by BraveBold

Drastic drops - maybe a question of definition?

JayEmm made a good video about it with multiple examples that start at 21:30 if you don't want to watch the entire thing. He references new vehicles and flippers, which like Rolex, is where all the hype/problem is.

Rolex wise, like you, I am impartial. I follow the market value of my Submariner out of curiosity only. AD purchase of $12,150 CDN out the door (13% sales tax stings). I saw them peak at $23,500 and come back down to the current mid $17,000 range. I'm actually glad they dropped and would like to see them drop more because that means less of the flipper / investment crowd. In my opinion, none of these new stainless steel models (or new cars) should trade for above MSRP.

https://youtu.be/Q8T4tq8Sc4Q?si=qie3yl3NTNj4Jbq6

[njlam]

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/video...ear-lows-video

This video and the reports of an increasing number of people getting "the call" on this website, the only real evidence of the market cooling is my being offered some gold DD40s last month I did not want.

The unavailability of the models I want is frustrating (Batman and 40mm PlayDate) and has given me the opportunity to look at other manufacturers.

I have relationships with 4 ADs in different parts of the country with relationships that range from good to distant.

In the two years I have been waiting, I have purchased five watches:
Panerai 233 GMT
Omega Speedmaster 3861
Rolex WG DJ with OEM leather strap (preowned)
Baltic Aquascape
JLC Reverso

Unfortunately none of these watches were, or could have been purchased from a Rolex AD.

It has been great to learn about the history, traditions and nuances of other watch brands. I have some Cartier Tanks and Grand Seiko Spring Drives on my list.

While I hope I get the Rolex's on my list, the waiting is a huge turn off. In my case, Rolex's inability to sell me a new watch is their problem.

[superpop]

Rolex has done a very poor job of protecting their brand in the eyes of the true, long term customer base. By not allowing AD's to charge street pricing, they created this massive back alley purchasing experience for most buyers who just want to buy a watch or maybe two. The AD experience has been awful with wait lists and games. Well, the gig is up and more than a few buyers have lost interest or went to another brand. Couple this with the economy and you have all the ingredients for a reduction in potential customers and demand. It does not matter if they only make 1M or so pieces, there is a very small slice if the population that has any interest in spending over 10K on a fashion bauble. The hype train has left the station.

[Hollie_Rollie]

Originally Posted by superpop

Rolex has done a very poor job of protecting their brand in the eyes of the true, long term customer base. By not allowing AD's to charge street pricing, they created this massive back alley purchasing experience for most buyers who just want to buy a watch or maybe two. The AD experience has been awful with wait lists and games. Well, the gig is up and more than a few buyers have lost interest or went to another brand. Couple this with the economy and you have all the ingredients for a reduction in potential customers and demand. It does not matter if they only make 1M or so pieces, there is a very small slice if the population that has any interest in spending over 10K on a fashion bauble. The hype train has left the station.

Agreed 100%. Now the used watch dealers are doing the best they can to maintain. Private sellers who are trying to liquidate their hypes pieces are seeing what they thought was a quick flip sitting for a weeks


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[Hollie_Rollie]

Originally Posted by njlam

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/video...ear-lows-video

This video and the reports of an increasing number of people getting "the call" on this website, the only real evidence of the market cooling is my being offered some gold DD40s last month I did not want.

The unavailability of the models I want is frustrating (Batman and 40mm PlayDate) and has given me the opportunity to look at other manufacturers.

I have relationships with 4 ADs in different parts of the country with relationships that range from good to distant.

In the two years I have been waiting, I have purchased five watches:
Panerai 233 GMT
Omega Speedmaster 3861
Rolex WG DJ with OEM leather strap (preowned)
Baltic Aquascape
JLC Reverso

Unfortunately none of these watches were, or could have been purchased from a Rolex AD.

It has been great to learn about the history, traditions and nuances of other watch brands. I have some Cartier Tanks and Grand Seiko Spring Drives on my list.

While I hope I get the Rolex's on my list, the waiting is a huge turn off. In my case, Rolex's inability to sell me a new watch is their problem.

That 233 is a great watch! I found mine to be one of the most enjoyable watches to wear!


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[H25B]

Lots of people felt OK buying a Rolex with the comfort of thinking they could always sell it easy at a small profit if they needed to. Watching Moda is getting interesting lately.

[rushca01]

Originally Posted by H25B

Lots of people felt OK buying a Rolex with the comfort of thinking they could always sell it easy at a small profit if they needed to. Watching Moda is getting interesting lately.

Curious, what is happening on Moda? I’ve told myself no more grey purchase, I’m happy with what I have and can wait for a call from the AD for the two I want still.

[JSCP]

There will be no discount. Will remain selective, exclusive, limited.

[avv2001]

I was bracing for a much longer wait than I ended up with, so I would generally agree that the tide is turning…

[amh]

Originally Posted by superpop

Rolex has done a very poor job of protecting their brand in the eyes of the true, long term customer base. By not allowing AD's to charge street pricing, they created this massive back alley purchasing experience for most buyers who just want to buy a watch or maybe two. The AD experience has been awful with wait lists and games. Well, the gig is up and more than a few buyers have lost interest or went to another brand. Couple this with the economy and you have all the ingredients for a reduction in potential customers and demand. It does not matter if they only make 1M or so pieces, there is a very small slice if the population that has any interest in spending over 10K on a fashion bauble. The hype train has left the station.

If an AD charged 'street price' rest assured it would be even more than DavidSW. In that case I'd simply buy from a grey.

Meanwhile ADs have been thrilled with the hype train, they've finally been able to move some of their undesirable product (jewelry and other watch brands.)

[H25B]

Originally Posted by rushca01

Curious, what is happening on Moda? I’ve told myself no more grey purchase, I’m happy with what I have and can wait for a call from the AD for the two I want still.

Just seems like pricing is softening and folks are unloading inventory.

[superpop]

Originally Posted by amh

If an AD charged 'street price' rest assured it would be even more than DavidSW. In that case I'd simply buy from a grey.

Meanwhile ADs have been thrilled with the hype train, they've finally been able to move some of their undesirable product (jewelry and other watch brands.)

I would gladly pay a small premium to buy from an AD and have the AD purchase experience, including the assurance that the watch was genuine, all paperwork was in my name and no issues with follow up service. Maybe the short sighted ADs have liked all the hype but I bet the smart ones are frustrated that they have disappointed so many good customers with long wait times and nothing to show potential new customers. Never mind the fact that they could have made substantially more if they could charge what the market would bear when the prices were up. You will never convince me that the army of flippers that pretty much hijacked the Rolex channel, was a good thing for anyone other than the flippers.

[Toproll85]

“The advantage” is that it still sells, and for well-known models above the list price. Even if it has gone down.
It remains “the brand to buy”, reassuring buyers, and the other associated success factors.
It must be said that everywhere else, you can always brush up to quickly resell your watch, and sometimes at 50% of your expenditure. Rolex is Rolex, and will remain so. There are 7x more demands than production, the lists are full and no AD will have to struggle to clear the coffers for the years to come...
The dream of a salesman throwing a Daytona at your head while begging you will remain one forever now.

[168000]

Very interesting thread.
I also her and read that watches are being delivered to AD at higher pace, yet since July I am still waiting for a standard date just 36, blue dial flutted.
The AD last week told me that they definitely have more SG and gold watches.
I don’t know who to believe anymore.

[168000]

It is nice to hear and read ADs get more watches. Unfortunately it is not what I see. I am waiting for a DJ 36 flutted oyster since early July. The AD told me they have no clue when it will come. I keep faith

[Seo]

One would have to think over the next year things will equalise back? Economy's not doing so well, grey prices are down so the pure flippers leave, Rolex is making more watches and a whole bunch of people are simply angry at Rolex.

Would be great to see the smug SAs have to work for the sale again...

[Podmornica]

Originally Posted by 168000

It is nice to hear and read ADs get more watches. Unfortunately it is not what I see. I am waiting for a DJ 36 flutted oyster since early July. The AD told me they have no clue when it will come. I keep faith

You can buy that piece today and wear it tomorrow for less than what you would pay at your AD.

Rolex AD is still clearing the years long waiting lists and is catching last window lickers to sell them slow movers that nobody wants on the open market.

[kmzandrew]

Originally Posted by superpop

Rolex has done a very poor job of protecting their brand in the eyes of the true, long term customer base. By not allowing AD's to charge street pricing, they created this massive back alley purchasing experience for most buyers who just want to buy a watch or maybe two. The AD experience has been awful with wait lists and games. Well, the gig is up and more than a few buyers have lost interest or went to another brand. Couple this with the economy and you have all the ingredients for a reduction in potential customers and demand. It does not matter if they only make 1M or so pieces, there is a very small slice if the population that has any interest in spending over 10K on a fashion bauble. The hype train has left the station.

One thing that will save Rolex a bit is that the watch hype led to a lot of other brands seeing increased demand.
My wife and I had planned on getting his and hers VC overseas to celebrate a major life event this year, and the VC and their experience is even worse than Rolex. They want to interview you before purchase, and claim the waitlist is 2+ years for a mens overseas I can buy grey at a discount.
It was such a terrible experience we decided not to buy VC at all. The Rolex ADs are also terrible and we will probably just end up getting his and hers Cartier Santos as at least Cartier offers a very pleasant experience.
The major watch brands are just trash right now, even though supply is definitely picking up, especially on PM pieces (which we were interested in).

[58junior]

I have a serviced 1990 sub with original box papers and sales receipt. I sent an inquiry to a major grey dealer to get an idea what it’s worth, who replied “we don’t need anymore of that model” (they had about 20 spanning a number of years).

[Ceriano]

My AD flat out told me there are no waitlists anymore. Not that I think there was one to begin with. They sell them as they come in. Just follow up so they know you are still interested. Apparently lot of people put their names down last year and now they’re getting cold feet when they get the call.
He also said every SA can now order 2 datejusts with certain configuration every month. They haven’t been able to do that the past few years. So the supply is definitely improving.
The market is usually strong this time of the year and things slow down as we get closer to summer. I don’t think we have seen the lows yet.

[BroncoOne]

I just returned from a Las Vegas trip and visited 2 ADs. One in Bellagio, the other in Caesars. I didn’t have time to get over to Wynn or any other resorts to show.

Bellagio had a new Everose Skydweller onOysterflex in stock. The SA said that it was the only watch that they had for sale. They have not started participating in the CPO program yet.

The Caesars AD had two 36 Datejusts.

I wasn’t interested in any of those watches but they did sell the 2 datejusts when I popped in again while shopping the next day.

Bellagio still had the Skydweller as of Wed when I left townper a friend who went to look at it.

So yes, things are slowing up and ADs are getting watches, even if very few.

All thatmy local AD had was a two tone DJ. Two tone just isn’t for me.

As for plummeting demand, it will moderate but don’t expect to walk into an AD and get discounts or even the watch that you want. My AD said ( I know, they know as title as anyone else) that the new manufacturing capacity was for Tudor, which she said is really catching new demand. Who knows what’s true?

The only people who will be touched by any lessening of demand will be flippers who never intended to own the watch except to flip it for a markup. As it should be. It will take their distortions out of the market but will not reduce the demand of the many people that buy Rolex for cash an a get them from ADs at MSRP.

[enjoythemusic]

Look forward to sanity. Ok, sure, some waiting for a SS Daytona, but 'normal' stuff. Special orders are filled (and in a reasonable time). Have a special 20th anniversary in 5 months and want a his / hers pair, order now for 99% assured delivery.

You know, like the good ol' days.

[ErichKeane]

I've definitely noticed new/used prices go down in only the last ~3 months I've been watching for a white 42mm Explorer IIs. I started looking late August, and it was rare to see a polar 216570 sub-12k with papers/box, and the 226570 were always about 1k-1500 higher.

However, just in the last week, I've seen 2 (or perhaps 3?) 216570's with papers/box sub-10k from reputable sellers (including 1 here!). I also saw some 226570s 'lightly used' in the sub-11500k range.

Black versions of the 216570 have been sub-9 for a while, and the 226570 are now getting sub-10. I've got my name in at an AD (though only a few weeks, and only 1 Longines purchase), but it has me thinking it might be worth while to just buy second hand in the near future.

I figure as other models get similar, we'll see the same thing happen (folks going used/grey for savings like they do with Omega), and more availability at ADs.

[Beto737]

I think it’s great! I get enjoy watches I really want experience? I don’t see a problem only blue skies..

[majidessa]

Rolex watches can now be categoriezed as follows:

> Hard to ger watches that trade up to 2x or more over MSRP, such as SS Daytona, and PEPSI (representing maybe 1% of Rolex lineup )

> Sought after but more available that trade up to 50% - 75% over MSRP such as Sub Date, BLNR, and very few PM etc... (these represent 30 - 40% of Rolex line up).

> Watches that could be easily available and are traded under MSRP such as various DJ configuration, majority of PM models, two tones...etc ( these are more than 60% of current Rolex line up).

That is why the demand has fallen so much in the past year which is normal. Other luxury brands have fewer models that people are interested in or even traded over MSRP when bought new.

However the real question is, if Rolex increases the production by 50 - 60% as per its current plans, it might shoot it self on the foot as there will be way too much stock both new and used in the market. I'm sure Rolex is king when it comes to business tactics and marketing, nevertheless, the volume will by very huge.

[PandaSPUR]

Originally Posted by majidessa

Rolex watches can now be categoriezed as follows:

> Hard to ger watches that trade up to 2x or more over MSRP, such as SS Daytona, and PEPSI (representing maybe 1% of Rolex lineup )

> Sought after but more available that trade up to 50% - 75% over MSRP such as Sub Date, BLNR, and very few PM etc... (these represent 30 - 40% of Rolex line up).

> Watches that could be easily available and are traded under MSRP such as various DJ configuration, majority of PM models, two tones...etc ( these are more than 60% of current Rolex line up).

That is why the demand has fallen so much in the past year which is normal. Other luxury brands have fewer models that people are interested in or even traded over MSRP when bought new.

However the real question is, if Rolex increases the production by 50 - 60% as per its current plans, it might shoot it self on the foot as there will be way too much stock both new and used in the market. I'm sure Rolex is king when it comes to business tactics and marketing, nevertheless, the volume will by very huge.

As you said, they know what they're doing. The new production capacity just gives them more room to adjust supply upwards when they want to. They'll probably just keep targeting that sweet spot where supply is just slightly under demand.

An ideal world for Rolex, that I would also be happy with, is probably having customers who can request any model they want from an AD and get it within a few months max.

[4reRlxGuy]

From what I'm seeing and hearing from the secondary mkt is sub 20k items are still moving but 20k+ items are sitting (except steel Daytonas and Pepsi(s). Two tones (even Daytonas are sitting). And only select PM are selling.

The ADs are still trying to create a perception of excess demand. For instance the local AD gave me a call to come see the new yellow gold GMT on jubilee. They mentioned it would be held as an exhibition piece for at least a month. I txt'd 2 grey dealers who responded with one saying they could get it at msrp (no tax) and the other at msrp (no tax but $750 on top of msrp for their efforts).