Your thoughts about current market and Rolex supply

[majidessa]

Hello everyone,

I am seeing a lot of evidence in the last few months that Rolex watches are becoming more accessible including some hot models. Some ADs (depending on location) are having problems selling some models and although the cases might look empty, the wait lists (real one) is no longer what it used to as demand has cooled significantly , and many are getting their watches sooner than expected.

I for one got a call recently for hot ss sport model after 4 months from placing my order which i was initially told it would take much longer, many of my friends are getting lucky as well.

I know that this is an old going debate, but I think that this community with its knowhow and strong ties may have a good insight regarding the current market status and the way it is headed in the next 12 months in terms of availability / scondry market prices.

Having said that, 2 things are expected to further impact current market, 1, the increase in production which Rolex is actively working on and 2, current economic and geo political conditions.

[OTX]

I think it has a lot to do with where you live as Rolex dealers tend to sell locally only. From my experience, in big cities there are really long waiting lists for the hot models and even the not so hot models. In the poorer parts of the country, I think it’s easier to get one even if you have to wait a little bit. In general though, I feel like the market has softened up a bit. Mostly because of Rolex increasing their production, the state of the economy and fear of the future. Many people are holding onto cash. Also frankly, many people are just plain sick of playing the Rolex wait list game.

[lencap]

It seems that the "bubble has broken". Sentiment has changed from "gotta have it" to "I'm not sure I want it". It's the same in other markets - high end cars, other luxury goods.

I just got a 41mm DJ Oyster white dial after a very brief wait. I bought it as my daily wear watch, but I'm also mindful that in the last two years that watch price has increased over 11% from Rolex. I also live in a high sales tax state, and buying it added another 7.25% to the cost. So, looking back, I now have a watch that is about 20% higher in price on my wrist compared to 2 years ago. I'm pretty sure that if I try to resell it tomorrow I'm out of pocket that 20% price/tax cost.

That's not an earth shaking observation, but for similar money I could have bought a lot of other non-Rolex watches that have depreciated quite a bit over the last year or so.

[puma1552]

Manufactured scarcity will persist for about 12 months more than it should. That doesn't mean the part is over right now - wait lists are still very real - but believe me, as soon as inventories are up, don't expect dealers to show their cards - they will keep the cases empty and create an illusion of scarcity for a time long past when they should cut the crap.

Same as the auto industry, which is far closer to being at a point it should return to normal - dealers sticking their head in the sand about the party being over when interest rates are 7-8%. I'm seeing 2023 leftovers sitting on lots for a paltry $500 or maybe $1,000 off when 2024s are stacking up right next to them. Yeah, I'm not paying for the depreciation that occurred while it sat on your lot...pound sand.

[Rogerusp]

Originally Posted by majidessa

Hello everyone,

I am seeing a lot of evidence in the last few months that Rolex watches are becoming more accessible including some hot models. Some ADs (depending on location) are having problems selling some models and although the cases might look empty, the wait lists (real one) is no longer what it used to as demand has cooled significantly , and many are getting their watches sooner than expected.

I for one got a call recently for hot ss sport model after 4 months from placing my order which i was initially told it would take much longer, many of my friends are getting lucky as well.

I know that this is an old going debate, but I think that this community with its knowhow and strong ties may have a good insight regarding the current market status and the way it is headed in the next 12 months in terms of availability / scondry market prices.

Having said that, 2 things are expected to further impact current market, 1, the increase in production which Rolex is actively working on and 2, current economic and geo political conditions.

What hot models did you get offered if you don’t mind me asking?

[H25B]

Interest rates rising, economy slowing, and Covid trillions funneled into the economy drying up. People are pulling back.

I remember being offered a discount on a SS submariner in Hong Kong about 7 years ago. A anyone thinking it can’t go back to that is fooling themselves. Will it? Not sure, but it’s possible and a TON of watches are held in grey market inventory. There has ALWAYS been plenty of watches for everyone who actually wants to own and wear them.

[BraveBold]

Originally Posted by H25B

Interest rates rising, economy slowing, and Covid trillions funneled into the economy drying up. People are pulling back.

I remember being offered a discount on a SS submariner in Hong Kong about 7 years ago. A anyone thinking it can’t go back to that is fooling themselves. Will it? Not sure, but it’s possible and a TON of watches are held in grey market inventory. There has ALWAYS been plenty of watches for everyone who actually wants to own and wear them.

Interesting take.

Agree with economy being on precipice of downturn in the US (and already weakened globally).

Disagree with the “plenty” comments. About 60-80M people in the world that could easily afford any SS Rolex at retail. Easily. Expanded to those who could “afford” one as an aspirational purchase - over 700M.

Rolex has one of the two most immediately recognizable luxury brands on earth - the other being Ferrari at about 20x the entry point. 1M Rolexes produced annually … even not accounting for the splits of SS vs higher (less attainable) PM models, or all the multi-watch owners… the demand imbalance for the most highly sought models will not rectify. Of course the imbalance is also not as “bad” because there is a large portion of that wealth that doesn’t aspire towards watch ownership at all. But the growth in global wealth has far, far outstripped the growth of Rolex production over the past 30+ years.

For some models, greater balance is likely as part of this unwind. But keep in mind we’ve already seen some of this unwind globally. But Rolex watches are not plentiful vs what they represent to many.

[Calatrava r]

Aside from everything else going on at the moment, I think people were turned off by the long waits and many have moved on to other brands or something else.

[amh]

You don't need anyone's opinion. Just look at the stats for your favorite model and draw your own conclusions.

Handy site:
(Free - just search for your target model)
https://watchcharts.com/watch_model/...0blnr/overview

[Roger Lococco]

Originally Posted by Calatrava r

Aside from everything else going on at the moment, I think people were turned off by the long waits and many have moved on to other brands or something else.

Certainly more fun to collect cars ...

[Gargamel]

Not so long ago, selling a 10k Rolex for 50% premium was easy.
You just had to contact a reseller and you would have a 3 or 4k$ bonus with nothing else to do.

Now, the premium over a Sub is 20%, a bit more for a GMT. But resellers won't cash-in as easy as before. So you'll have to sell to individuals, which is a far more complex and risky thing.

Plus all other reasons...

It's still a good "investment", but in the long term only.

It's all for the best in the end

[H25B]

Originally Posted by BraveBold

Interesting take.

Agree with economy being on precipice of downturn in the US (and already weakened globally).

Disagree with the “plenty” comments. About 60-80M people in the world that could easily afford any SS Rolex at retail. Easily. Expanded to those who could “afford” one as an aspirational purchase - over 700M.

Rolex has one of the two most immediately recognizable luxury brands on earth - the other being Ferrari at about 20x the entry point. 1M Rolexes produced annually … even not accounting for the splits of SS vs higher (less attainable) PM models, or all the multi-watch owners… the demand imbalance for the most highly sought models will not rectify. Of course the imbalance is also not as “bad” because there is a large portion of that wealth that doesn’t aspire towards watch ownership at all. But the growth in global wealth has far, far outstripped the growth of Rolex production over the past 30+ years.

For some models, greater balance is likely as part of this unwind. But keep in mind we’ve already seen some of this unwind globally. But Rolex watches are not plentiful vs what they represent to many.

There’s just too many watches circulating in the hands of dealers for me to believe it’s much more the the mere illusion of scarcity.

[BraveBold]

Originally Posted by Roger Lococco

Certainly more fun to collect cars ...

Sarcasm, I hope.

[Jasb]

They will keep it up as long as they can. Holding back inventory and all the other bs that’s been going on has driven up prices and made the SA folks very powerful. I’m pretty simple, have one Rolex and didn’t even want that one until I tried it on, but I’m still waiting on a no date simple sub.

[Tim Plains]

The car market is returning to normal, I saw a commercial for 0.99% financing for F-150s just yesterday, Porsche values are dropping drastically. I'd say Rolex will follow suit soon enough.

[Tely]

The long wait for a piece has been one of the major issues with acquiring one. So it’s no surprise if people go for other assessible brands.

[~JJ]

Watch collecting jumped the shark, to use an outdated expression. Like anything that gets super popular relatively quickly… people go bananas for a product > all of sudden everyone is an “expert” from watching endless YouTube videos > social takes the lifestyle to critical mass > people get burned out since watch manufacturers evolve slowly, pissed off clients with their games > very expensive trinkets no longer make them feel special since they had to hoard every hot model within 24months and everyone has pretty much the same modern pieces > free money dries up so why buy trinkets that no longer feel special > time to find new hobby that is fresh.

[thenewrick]

Watches and Rolex were sort of the hype thing from 2019-2023 but I think it'll just become less of a cultural thing going forward. Likely greater of a thing than it was before 2019, but never hyped up to where it was at the peak of 2022.

I expect availability and prices to hover around where they were 2018-2019 before hype and covid/cryto money went bananas.

I can get pretty much any reference I want with a modest wait. But there isn't much I'm really interested in these days. Waiting to see what comes in the future and shopping vintage mostly. Vintage prices haven't dropped as fast as modern Rolex like Pepsi, white dial Daytona, Hulk etc.

[thenewrick]

Originally Posted by Tim Plains

The car market is returning to normal, I saw a commercial for 0.99% financing for F-150s just yesterday, Porsche values are dropping drastically. I'd say Rolex will follow suit soon enough.

I hope this is true. The car market has been nuts. I've been eyeing a midlife crisis Porsche for years but they just went nuts with pricing and allocations and markups.

The MSRP alone is pretty silly. Dealers are asking $150k for entry level 911's. Like cmon. These aren't 12 cylinder Ferrari's folks.

EV's and Lux Trux are whole nother can of worms. Happy to see Lux Trux on a slow decline and EV's coming down to earth. Same story with bad dealers marking things up to stupid levels. Looked at Hyundai EV's and dealer was marking up $45k cars to $57k. smh

I need 0% APR on a 2nd gen EV truck and Porsche Targa 4s with a manual transmission and maybe a little cash on the hood. Then I'm a buyer!

I think in reality not much will change from where it's at right now, watches, cars, houses, money, etc. Economy is strong, unemployment is low, relatively peaceful relations and supply lines again for manufacturing. I think the next 5-10 years will be a lot like 2023.

[Oystersteel92]

Originally Posted by Odat

I think it has a lot to do with where you live as Rolex dealers tend to sell locally only. From my experience, in big cities there are really long waiting lists for the hot models and even the not so hot models. In the poorer parts of the country, I think it’s easier to get one even if you have to wait a little bit. In general though, I feel like the market has softened up a bit. Mostly because of Rolex increasing their production, the state of the economy and fear of the future. Many people are holding onto cash. Also frankly, many people are just plain sick of playing the Rolex wait list game.

I DO think things are changing. Pre-owned prices have definitely come down, and rather dramatically for some models, but as you say location matters. Nothing has changed for my AD that I can tell. Still selling everything they get, and the local economy is still going great guns. We benefited from the post-Covid migration and my neck of the woods has continued to be a desirable area to move to, especially for upper-middle class people. I'm frankly more excited about the prospect of picking up a pre-owned PM model at a decent price in the next year or two from an online dealer, than I am about getting something from my AD.

[Rolex.Journey]

Things are definitely changing. Interested to see how I feel when I’m all good on my current lineup and ADs start checking in with me, versus me consistently following up with them.

I think the YouTube channels, IGs, and social media fad dies down a bit. Hopefully us enthusiasts can continue on our collecting journey with less noise.


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[amphr1]

The best evidence I see is from the number of post from MODA Facebook group. It certainly seems like every private owner and dealer of Daytona are trying to offload them.

The Starbucks now dropped to $14.2k

Pepsi is still rare, but there seems to be plenty of batman and batgirl flooding the market too.

I don't know if this means it'll drop further but I do believe demand has soften measurably in the last week or so. I think there's a significant percentage of people who used to buy a piece to establish relationship who will no longer do so. And there's also a lot less people who is going to pay a premium on grey of they know the watch is coming soon.

This is just my speculation.

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[PandaSPUR]

Random anecdote that may mean nothing, but it took me a only 3 weeks to get a Black DJ 41 126334 (fluted + jubilee). I had a referral but no history with any Rolex.

Car market for "regular" cars seem to be back to normal but luxury or specific desirable cars are still annoying to get. From my shopping this past year, seems like BMW, MB, and Porsche are still having chip shortage issues causing some builds to be delayed or some options to be removed entirely.

[Joearch]

Supply and demand are in flux. Seems like supply might be up a bit and demand is down a bit. Where the two curves meet is going to be the price. Econ 101.

[majidessa]

Originally Posted by Rogerusp

What hot models did you get offered if you don’t mind me asking?

A Batgirl, I have a collection of other Rolex watches that are considered in demand.
I'm not a walk-in customer, and I do have a relationship (i never bought a pm or other jewelry) but honestly I never had to wait more than 3 - 4 months. The AD would tell me from the start what is attainable and what is very hard to get.

For this example I was told the wait will be long up to 2 years!

[4reRlxGuy]

At my Socal AD the only change has been primarily 2 tone models becoming available.

[Kevin of Larchmont]

Rolex is building a new factory so more supply is coming and they are getting into the used watch business with their CPO program. This and dwindling FOMO will effectively crush the greys. Rolex’s business model is based on selling new watches at wholesale to ADs and demand for new Rolexes still far outpaces supply. There is a core Rolex customer who will still stand in line for what they want. The flippers an IG whoores will drift away to greener pasture but Rolex’s core customer will remain viable. The ADs will have to adapt by bundling less or not at all but they will adapt. Rolex isn’t building a new factory by accident, they have a plan. Demand will shift in intensity but it’s not going away, the brand means too much to too many.

[majidessa]

The question is, going forward in the next 1 to 3 years and taking into consideration
》Rolex new acquisition of Bucherer
》Expected increase in production with current build up of new manufacturing facilities
》Economic and geopolitical conditions

What will Rolex strategy be?
We know that some ADs are starting to struggle selling less hyped models and If Rolex increased production it might flood the market under current conditions adding insult to injury.

Will Rolex accept the old business practice of discounting some of their watches to move inventory, which would hurt the brand's image ? Or will they lower their production to have more control?

I also think if Rolex does not increase their prices early next year which is a 50/50 chance, it will be an indication that they do not want to out price themselves and a sign of tough times ahead.

Personally, I'm big fan of Rolex not just their watches but also their business model, marketing and strategy which some consider the black book of business

[Belinus]

I’m afraid I’m not seeing the demand easing up for me. I got two SS sports models last year but have had nothing this year, so far.

[Oystersteel92]

Originally Posted by PandaSPUR

Random anecdote that may mean nothing, but it took me a only 3 weeks to get a Black DJ 41 126334 (fluted + jubilee). I had a referral but no history with any Rolex.

Car market for "regular" cars seem to be back to normal but luxury or specific desirable cars are still annoying to get. From my shopping this past year, seems like BMW, MB, and Porsche are still having chip shortage issues causing some builds to be delayed or some options to be removed entirely.

I've got a friend who this week was allowed to order a Corvette with no market adjustment, rather than just being laughed at by the dealer. I then checked and found like 18 of them available within 150 miles.