Expect even lower supply!

[Highlatitude]

ADs will continue to have low stock, maybe even lower stock because Rolex is shut down. Rolex will not drop their RRP at all. People who have been on waiting lists and are financially secure will still buy if they want the watch but there will be less people interested. Flippers will not buy because most greys will not pay a worthwhile price. Greys will try to hold their prices and ride out the storm. In the face of very low sales or no sales some will liquidate their stock fearing a crash and the market will soften considerably causing others to loose their nerve and do the same. The fashion pieces that traditional Rolex buyers don’t care much about that have been hyped by Instagram and have the largest difference between AD RRP and grey prices will be hit hard. Hulks, Pepsis and Daytonas. Less hyped pieces will drop to just below AD prices and stay there.

The economic shutdown will come to an end before the medical crisis is over because people will get used to the risk and need the money. Governments will know they cannot sustain an open ended lockdown until a vaccine arrives and will declare that the crisis is passed with a peak in demand for medical services delayed and flattened out to a manageable level. Elderly and other high risk people will become the recipients of Government help whilst the strong will have to go back to work with a range of measures designed to reduce risk such a thermal camera monitoring and more people working from home, less travel, video conferences etc. Some industries will be hit hard others less so. The governments will justify the change of policy by explaining that a failed economy would lead to more deaths in the long term than would be caused by the virus. Drugs that lessen the chance of serious symptoms will be available, they will be ones previously licensed for use for other illnesses and found to be effective. One factor that will help is that pharmaceutical companies will share research data and profits for the common good.

Normality will return by mid summer and as confidence grows the markets will pickup and only be down a relatively small amount from where they were. Governments will have extensively used Quantitive Easing programmes to add hundreds of billions into their economies without causing significant inflation.

People will start buying Rolex again and some greys will have survived but the hype will have died down and Rolex and their ADs will have to rely on sales to the traditional buyer again. SS Daytonas will remain the only hard to get model. ADs will hide other steel models in the safe but get them out when they are requested and pretend they are providing great service to their buyers. Rolex/ADs will find that the hype of the last few years has given people retail fatigue for the brand but Rolex will manage supply carefully to hide this.

[Homo Sapien X]

Originally Posted by Highlatitude

ADs will continue to have low stock, maybe even lower stock because Rolex is shut down. Rolex will not drop their RRP at all. People who have been on waiting lists and are financially secure will still buy if they want the watch but there will be less people interested. Flippers will not buy because most greys will not pay a worthwhile price. Greys will try to hold their prices and ride out the storm. In the face of very low sales or no sales some will liquidate their stock fearing a crash and the market will soften considerably causing others to loose their nerve and do the same. The fashion pieces that traditional Rolex buyers don’t care much about that have been hyped by Instagram and have the largest difference between AD RRP and grey prices will be hit hard. Hulks, Pepsis and Daytonas. Less hyped pieces will drop to just below AD prices and stay there.

The economic shutdown will come to an end before the medical crisis is over because people will get used to the risk and need the money. Governments will know they cannot sustain an open ended lockdown until a vaccine arrives and will declare that the crisis is passed with a peak in demand for medical services delayed and flattened out to a manageable level. Elderly and other high risk people will become the recipients of Government help whilst the strong will have to go back to work with a range of measures designed to reduce risk such a thermal camera monitoring and more people working from home, less travel, video conferences etc. Some industries will be hit hard others less so. The governments will justify the change of policy by explaining that a failed economy would lead to more deaths in the long term than would be caused by the virus. Drugs that lessen the chance of serious symptoms will be available, they will be ones previously licensed for use for other illnesses and found to be effective. One factor that will help is that pharmaceutical companies will share research data and profits for the common good.

Normality will return by mid summer and as confidence grows the markets will pickup and only be down a relatively small amount from where they were. Governments will have extensively used Quantitive Easing programmes to add hundreds of billions into their economies without causing significant inflation.

People will start buying Rolex again and some greys will have survived but the hype will have died down and Rolex and their ADs will have to rely on sales to the traditional buyer again. SS Daytonas will remain the only hard to get model. ADs will hide other steel models in the safe but get them out when they are requested and pretend they are providing great service to their buyers. Rolex/ADs will find that the hype of the last few years has given people retail fatigue for the brand but Rolex will manage supply carefully to hide this.

Interesting. Sounds like you have some Rolex watches in your safe.

[Highlatitude]

Originally Posted by Homo Sapien X

Interesting. Sounds like you have some Rolex watches in your safe.

I have but only one I am likely to want to sell. I have always been into them for the watches not the profit so frankly I would be very happy to
see flippers and grey dealers get a poke in the eye.

When I was buying Rolex back in 2008, there was demand. Nothing like what has been happening since 2016 but the financial crisis then did not create a spectacular crash in Rolex prices, in fact it barely registered.