Talking Stocks 2.0

[avidflyer]

Not looking to short, just don’t think the real new reality is baked in yet...hopefully it is (and I’m wrong)

[m j b]

this three days of back-to-back increases is giving me an itch to buy more stocks, which is a sell signal, using the inverted-mjb signal system.

[RWH]

Originally Posted by m j b

this three days of back-to-back increases is giving me an itch to buy more stocks, which is a sell signal, using the inverted-mjb signal system.

I'm actually very tempted to short right now but I'm on the edge. This rally has no fuel to run on

[bryan13]

Originally Posted by RWH

I'm actually very tempted to short right now but I'm on the edge. This rally has no fuel to run on

If you're sitting on cash, why not have a little fun and try it.

[Doc Savage]

Originally Posted by m j b

this three days of back-to-back increases is giving me an itch to buy more stocks, which is a sell signal, using the inverted-mjb signal system.

LOL it looks like I'm following the Inverted MJB system

[beshannon]

Back above ~1000, volume is still light at 436 mm A/D is 6/1 on the upside, not as strong as yesterday, will need to see how this closes, might not want to hold over the weekend

[superdog]

Originally Posted by RWH

I'm actually very tempted to short right now but I'm on the edge. This rally has no fuel to run on

I think many of these companies are actually solid and were oversold.

I’m cautiously optimistic that we don’t go back to those bottoms.

I don’t love these massive numbers. I’d prefer to simply have minimal ups and downs. But I do think the worst is behind us.

[RWH]

Originally Posted by superdog

I think many of these companies are actually solid and were oversold.

I’m cautiously optimistic that we don’t go back to those bottoms.

I don’t love these massive numbers. I’d prefer to simply have minimal ups and downs. But I do think the worst is behind us.

Well it's just that we are going to be bombed with more and more bad news over the next couple of months.

Landlords being unable to collect rent
Worse unemployment numbers
Coronavirus cases spiking massively
Worldwide economic slowdown

I just feel like it's going to be a lot worse before it gets better. Also if I remember correctly after the stimulus in 2008 there was a few months of pretty brutal losses on the market before making a recovery. I think there is way too much optimism about this relief bill. To be honest I'm pretty sure not many of us really think $1200 is a lot unless we can get up and going in April which looks highly doubtful with the current situation. Just my opinions of course

[JParm]

Originally Posted by RWH

Well it's just that we are going to be bombed with more and more bad news over the next couple of months.

Landlords being unable to collect rent
Worse unemployment numbers
Coronavirus cases spiking massively
Worldwide economic slowdown

I just feel like it's going to be a lot worse before it gets better. Also if I remember correctly after the stimulus in 2008 there was a few months of pretty brutal losses on the market before making a recovery. I think there is way too much optimism about this relief bill. To be honest I'm pretty sure not many of us really think $1200 is a lot unless we can get up and going in April which looks highly doubtful with the current situation. Just my opinions of course

Agree with this. An article I posted a few comments back stated exactly what you said about 2008.

Maybe if we had shut down everything at once, things might have been better? Now, we're seeing a ripple effect from state to state with closures.

We're seeing businesses default on rent (e.g. Cheesecake Factory). Think we're truly past the rough times here?

[superdog]

Originally Posted by RWH

Well it's just that we are going to be bombed with more and more bad news over the next couple of months.

Landlords being unable to collect rent
Worse unemployment numbers
Coronavirus cases spiking massively
Worldwide economic slowdown

I just feel like it's going to be a lot worse before it gets better. Also if I remember correctly after the stimulus in 2008 there was a few months of pretty brutal losses on the market before making a recovery. I think there is way too much optimism about this relief bill. To be honest I'm pretty sure not many of us really think $1200 is a lot unless we can get up and going in April which looks highly doubtful with the current situation. Just my opinions of course

I think everything you say is correct.

I’d like to believe it’s mostly priced into the market.

And yes, more bad need is imminent. Bit the vast majority of the world is not planning on social distancing.

The human species, for better or worse, has a shot attention span. This will normalize and it will become the new normal. The human species is also inventive and has a strong spirit. There will be new ways to proceed forward. A way will be found.

The numbers of sick will get worse, but then hopefully they will regulate.

In better news, it’s being reported that pollution and smog is way down. The flu is likely to have a weak season based on new social interactions. People are learning new ways to socialize. There will be many good things that come from this.

Pros and cons to everything. This is no exception. Capitalism will emerge victorious. The human spirit will not stop.

[Letsgodiving]

I read a great post from another member on a finance forum that I belong and it is fitting for this rally imo:

"The bear doesn't always eat you all at once.

It sometimes plays with you, making you think you can escape....lures people back into the market...then mauls them again."

[superdog]

Originally Posted by jpeezy14@hotmail.com

Agree with this. An article I posted a few comments back stated exactly what you said about 2008.

Maybe if we had shut down everything at once, things might have been better? Now, we're seeing a ripple effect from state to state with closures.

We're seeing businesses default on rent (e.g. Cheesecake Factory). Think we're truly past the rough times here?

Another train of thought is that it’s better to get this over with. Even a few left over cases would start it all over again.

Might as well let humanity build up an immunity.

Better to rip the bandaid off than let it go on forever. Keep your head up brother. We will prevail.

[JParm]

Originally Posted by superdog

Another train of thought is that it’s better to get this over with. Even a few left over cases would start it all over again.

Might as well let humanity build up an immunity.

Better to rip the bandaid off than let it go on forever. Keep your head up brother. We will prevail.

I do agree with you here. At some point we have to let that happen.

[JParm]

Originally Posted by Letsgodiving

I read a great post from another member on a finance forum that I belong and it is fitting for this rally imo:

"The bear doesn't always eat you all at once.

It sometimes plays with you, making you think you can escape....lures people back into the market...then mauls them again."

I had to laugh at this one...it's true, in more ways than one.

[Doc Savage]

Originally Posted by Letsgodiving

I read a great post from another member on a finance forum that I belong and it is fitting for this rally imo:

"The bear doesn't always eat you all at once.

It sometimes plays with you, making you think you can escape....lures people back into the market...then mauls them again."

So true...

[JParm]

https://www.cnbc.com/video/2020/03/2...ia-levine.html

Pretty good snippet here. I hinge on what she says towards the end - a brutal April could be on the horizon. "3 days of going up and we're all bulls again."

[mgsooner]

The next two weeks will tell the tale. If US hospitals begin to be overrun, we're going to 15.

[FlashinLeather]

Originally Posted by mgsooner

The next two weeks will tell the tale. If US hospitals begin to be overrun, we're going to 15.

Cuomo said yesterday that hospitalizations have moved at a higher rate than the projected models and that New York City hospitals could reach the tipping point in three weeks.

Pretty troubling news.

[Duey]

Like I said a few posted back - What you're seeing is the market going up from a handout from the government. Plain and simple that's it. Nothing has changed - Companies aren't magically doing better - It's just smoke and mirrors right now.
OMG the job loss numbers were 4X higher then 1982 (higher then they have ever been) and the market rallies ???

[superdog]

Originally Posted by Duey

Like I said a few posted back - What you're seeing is the market going up from a handout from the government. Plain and simple that's it. Nothing has changed - Companies aren't magically doing better - It's just smoke and mirrors right now.
OMG the job loss numbers were 4X higher then 1982 (higher then they have ever been) and the market rallies ???

You are, of course, correct.

My wishful thinking is hoping it was a panic sell off. And the stimulus simply encouraged people to get back in and level off the previously overbought markets.

Fingers crossed.

[bks14sr]

Originally Posted by Duey

Like I said a few posted back - What you're seeing is the market going up from a handout from the government. Plain and simple that's it. Nothing has changed - Companies aren't magically doing better - It's just smoke and mirrors right now.
OMG the job loss numbers were 4X higher then 1982 (higher then they have ever been) and the market rallies ???

You are correct. This was just an artificial pop, and why I won’t even think about holding positions longer than a day at most. Shorts are going to come out swinging in the days ahead. I’m just taking profits here and there and staying liquid.

[EEpro]

Originally Posted by Duey

Like I said a few posted back - What you're seeing is the market going up from a handout from the government. Plain and simple that's it. Nothing has changed - Companies aren't magically doing better - It's just smoke and mirrors right now.
OMG the job loss numbers were 4X higher then 1982 (higher then they have ever been) and the market rallies ???

People are "not fighting the fed" with this rally on the bad news. How was the market during hyperinflation in Weimar? Not too bad even priced in foreign currency... all while people burned money to stay warm.

If this market retraces its all time high I guess I'm all in as hyperinflation will leave me behind if I don't ride the tide. Dollars will be worthless on the other side of all this spending.

[m j b]

A free newsletter that I get is usually pretty wishy - washy on what to do. This one, today, is very specific.

It's worth what you paid for it, but maybe worth considering?

[Duey]

Originally Posted by bks14sr

You are correct. This was just an artificial pop, and why I won’t even think about holding positions longer than a day at most. Shorts are going to come out swinging in the days ahead. I’m just taking profits here and there and staying liquid.

Me too - took profits today and waiting for the shorts to start. Cash is king 👑 right now and it's hard to gamble with it in this market.

[stil]

Originally Posted by RWH

I'm actually very tempted to short right now but I'm on the edge. This rally has no fuel to run on

Market has already corrected and built in downside got the next few months. Now we bounce around.

[austinp]

Originally Posted by beshannon

Back above ~1000, volume is still light at 436 mm A/D is 6/1 on the upside, not as strong as yesterday, will need to see how this closes, might not want to hold over the weekend

Thanks for all your opinions on this crazy market. I look forward to reading your post throughout the day.

Sent from my SM-G935P using Tapatalk

[Tha Baron]

Originally Posted by bryan13

If you're sitting on cash, why not have a little fun and try it.

I’ll let you know how it goes... been a crazy 3 days

[RWH]

Worse of all this stimulus literally was pull out of thin air. Who says money doesn't grow on trees?

[mountainjogger]

Non US cruise lines (which are most of them) will not receive any of the stimulus money.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/busin...-line-bailout/

Stay safe.

[beshannon]

Originally Posted by austinp

Thanks for all your opinions on this crazy market. I look forward to reading your post throughout the day.

Sent from my SM-G935P using Tapatalk

Thanks, just trying to add useable info.

Not surprised to see the futures down this morning after the three day run.

Technically we are repairing some of the damage, if we retest the lows as Tony Dwyer suggests on Twitter

Just so everyone is clear, my call hasn't changed since this crisis started. I am calling for a test of the last week's low after the expected "relief rally", where I anticipate becoming more offensive. No change at all my game plan https://twitter.com/TradingNation/st...21677410439168

Tony also says this

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/26/sp-5...own-dwyer.html

“Once you make a panic low, you typically have this relief rally,” Dwyer said. “Unfortunately, the vast majority of time you go back down and test that low.”

But his forecast isn’t all doom and gloom. It carries optimism, too.

“You’ve already panicked, so down 34% at the low to say that it’s going to get significantly worse is not the case,” he added. “The time to be cautious was in January and February. We made the panic low. While we may test that low, it’s not the time to get scared.”

What this tells me is that I need to be prepared (and I am) to ride through another down move and use the cash I have been building over the last few days to average down again.

Here is an article discussing many thoughts here regarding a bottom and a forward looking stock market

Here’s why stocks are rising on terrible news

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/26/here...ible-news.html

Stay sharp everyone