Rolex depreciation

[watchdrummer]

Need some guidance from the experts around here. One of the excuses I use when convincing myself to buy another Rolex is I won't take a beating when I have to sell. But, I don't quite understand why. I am told Rolex may sell as many as 800,000 watches per year which would not exactly make it exclusive. When I buy a sports car I try to get a rare one ie 1 of 100 made and for a car they usually holdl value. Why do Rolexes hold value? What would a Sub date bought today sell for in 5 yrs?

Originally Posted by watchdrummer

Need some guidance from the experts around here. One of the excuses I use when convincing myself to buy another Rolex is I won't take a beating when I have to sell. But, I don't quite understand why. I am told Rolex may sell as many as 800,000 watches per year which would not exactly make it exclusive. When I buy a sports car I try to get a rare one ie 1 of 100 made and for a car they usually holdl value. Why do Rolexes hold value? What would a Sub date bought today sell for in 5 yrs?

If I could tell you what a sub would sell for in five years, I'd already be a multi-millionaire.

Rolex makes about a million watches a year, or about 30,000 a day. While you're pondering that figure, Rolex command a higher than usual resale because of their marketing and brand positioning.

Having a Rolex is like having cash on your wrist. If you get into a bind, you know you'll get a decent return. However, think about this (and I'm in Canada so it's relative). I bought a one-month old K series ExpII in December 2002 and six months later I inquired at the place where I bought it, about trading it in on a Panerai 114. I paid CDN$5,000 plus 15% tax for my watch and the very store I bought it from offered me $2300, despite the fact that I pointed out they had an abused K series in the case for $5100.

I don't think you can get your full money out of a Rolex unless you are prepared to wait 7-10 years, when buying BNIB will be perhaps 30-40% more. Of course, I'm not considering SS Daytonas or LVs.

A wise person once said if you wanted to make $1 million in selling watches, start with $2 million in cash.

[JJ Irani]

Originally Posted by Atomic

If I could tell you what a sub would sell for in five years, I'd already be a multi-millionaire.

Rolex makes about a million watches a year, or about 30,000 a day. While you're pondering that figure, Rolex command a higher than usual resale because of their marketing and brand positioning.

Having a Rolex is like having cash on your wrist. If you get into a bind, you know you'll get a decent return. However, think about this (and I'm in Canada so it's relative). I bought a one-month old K series ExpII in December 2002 and six months later I inquired at the place where I bought it, about trading it in on a Panerai 114. I paid CDN$5,000 plus 15% tax for my watch and the very store I bought it from offered me $2300, despite the fact that I pointed out they had an abused K series in the case for $5100.

I don't think you can get your full money out of a Rolex unless you are prepared to wait 7-10 years, when buying BNIB will be perhaps 30-40% more. Of course, I'm not considering SS Daytonas or LVs.

A wise person once said if you wanted to make $1 million in selling watches, start with $2 million in cash.

A couple of things, Johnny. Make that 3,000 Rollies a day...not 30,000!!

Secondly, the Sub-date will definitely command a healthier return than the Exp-II, probably the "worst" of the Rolex resellers. Although a superb watch, the Exp-II is the easiest to get, also the best discounted in the sports range and, as I've already said, the most difficult to resell at a decent price.

JJ

[colemanitis]

Also, the worst thing you can do is sell your watch to an AD. Chances are they'll only give you 50% of the appraised value. You'd be better off selling it on a forum like this one, or eBay.

[JJ Irani]

Originally Posted by colemanitis

Also, the worst thing you can do is sell your watch to an AD. Chances are they'll only give you 50% of the appraised value. You'd be better off selling it on a forum like this one, or eBay.

Very true. Or alternatively, depending how good a relationship you have with your AD, you could ask him to sell it on your behalf. That way, he could rake in much more for you. Only thing is you'd have to leave the watch with him for a certain period of time and hope that someone comes along soon enough.

JJ

Originally Posted by JJ Irani

A couple of things, Johnny. Make that 3,000 Rollies a day...not 30,000!!

Secondly, the Sub-date will definitely command a healthier return than the Exp-II, probably the "worst" of the Rolex resellers. Although a superb watch, the Exp-II is the easiest to get, also the best discounted in the sports range and, as I've already said, the most difficult to resell at a decent price.

JJ

Okay, I over goofed on the math, but by going by 260 working days, that's still 3800 watches a day. That's a LOT of watches!

Don't forget, we don't get discounts on SS sports watches because Rolex Canada won't allow it. So that don't float. Based on my viewing, the ExpII is one of the rarest birds as every AD has multiple subs in stock, whereas ExpIIs are few and far between.

I wasn't talking about the ExpII as a generalization on Rolex watches, just my experience. But based on what Al has been quoted on his, and a few other guys I know who have sold/traded Subs, GMTS, and from what jewellers have told me, it's all relatively the same.

They'll offer you one third of the new price and resell a third higher.

Yes Rolex has a higher than normal resale value for watches, but you still take a BIG hit when you sell.

I think it depends very much on the model, watch condition, and market conditions where you live how you will do selling your Rolex in the future. In my view unless you get a pretty good discount when buying (or buy second hand) you are very unlikely to have your Rolex "hold it's value" over the short term.

In my view right now it's a buyer's market on most models. If you pay full list and try to sell it a year down the road you won't likely get full list back for it (unless you sell it to someone who doesn't know what they are buying).

[colemanitis]

You could also buy preowned. Let the guy before you take the hit!

[JJ Irani]

Originally Posted by Atomic

Okay, I over goofed on the math, but by going by 260 working days, that's still 3800 watches a day. That's a LOT of watches!

Don't forget, we don't get discounts on SS sports watches because Rolex Canada won't allow it. So that don't float. Based on my viewing, the ExpII is one of the rarest birds as every AD has multiple subs in stock, whereas ExpIIs are few and far between.

I wasn't talking about the ExpII as a generalization on Rolex watches, just my experience. But based on what Al has been quoted on his, and a few other guys I know who have sold/traded Subs, GMTS, and from what jewellers have told me, it's all relatively the same.

They'll offer you one third of the new price and resell a third higher.

Yes Rolex has a higher than normal resale value for watches, but you still take a BIG hit when you sell.

Sorry Johnny,

Disagree on the BIG hit bit. You know for a fact how many watches I've flipped. On an average, I've taken anywhere between 25~30% hits on each of my Rollies. That's all!! Certainly no where near the 50% or so you were taking on your Exp-II.

Also, the guy to whom I sell my Rollies is a big buyer of new, old and vintage watches. He told me quite categorically that the biggest demand in his shop was for Subs and SDs...but not so much for Exp-II. However, in all fairness, he did say that he would prefer to have a BLACK dial Exp-II over the white one!!

JJ

Originally Posted by JJ Irani

Sorry Johnny,

Disagree on the BIG hit bit. You know for a fact how many watches I've flipped. On an average, I've taken anywhere between 25~30% hits on each of my Rollies. That's all!! Certainly no where near the 50% or so you were taking on your Exp-II.

Also, the guy to whom I sell my Rollies is a big buyer of new, old and vintage watches. He told me quite categorically that the biggest demand in his shop was for Subs and SDs...but not so much for Exp-II. However, in all fairness, he did say that he would prefer to have a BLACK dial Exp-II over the white one!!

JJ

We'll have to agree to disagree. Obviously our markets are different. Plus, you have a rapport with your buyer, cuz you flip every other month. I don't.

Originally Posted by JJ Irani

Sorry Johnny,

Disagree on the BIG hit bit. You know for a fact how many watches I've flipped. On an average, I've taken anywhere between 25~30% hits on each of my Rollies. That's all!! Certainly no where near the 50% or so you were taking on your Exp-II.

Also, the guy to whom I sell my Rollies is a big buyer of new, old and vintage watches. He told me quite categorically that the biggest demand in his shop was for Subs and SDs...but not so much for Exp-II. However, in all fairness, he did say that he would prefer to have a BLACK dial Exp-II over the white one!!

JJ

I guess it depends on what you consider a big hit JJ - I would say 25 to 30% in a big hit in the context of the original question being "why do these watches hold their value?" The fact is that in the vast number of cases they don't hold their value.

As I said, it depends on the local market conditions. I would say that if yours were flipped through your AD it's no wonder he gives you better than average trade value since he knows within months you'll be back for another, and another, and another, and another, and....well you get the idea.

Originally Posted by Avalon

I guess it depends on what you consider a big hit JJ - I would say 25 to 30% in a big hit in the context of the original question being "why do these watches hold their value?" The fact is that in the vast number of cases they don't hold their value.

As I said, it depends on the local market conditions. I would say that if yours were flipped through your AD it's no wonder he gives you better than average trade value since he knows within months you'll be back for another, and another, and another, and another, and....well you get the idea.

Agree... plus, as Al said, 25-30% is a big hit, IMHO. If you could buy a Rolex and two months or even six months later turn around and sell it with only a 10% loss, that's holding it's value. Since you don't get that kind of return, it's a big hit.

[JJ Irani]

Originally Posted by Avalon

I guess it depends on what you consider a big hit JJ - I would say 25 to 30% in a big hit in the context of the original question being "why do these watches hold their value?" The fact is that in the vast number of cases they don't hold their value.

As I said, it depends on the local market conditions. I would say that if yours were flipped through your AD it's no wonder he gives you better than average trade value since he knows within months you'll be back for another, and another, and another, and another, and....well you get the idea.

I have never flipped though Mansor's...NEVER!! But I might give it a serious thought next time!! I think he can get me much more by selling DIRECTLY to the end user!!

Originally Posted by JJ Irani

But I might give it a serious thought next time!! :

So you are going to sell the YM and get a TT sub, right?

[JJ Irani]

Originally Posted by Atomic

So you are going to sell the YM and get a TT sub, right?

[s7horton]

Something to keep in mind, JJ, with you is that you don't pay retail for your watches. For someone who pays retail (either being a new buyer, or buying a highly sought after watch) you will never get your money back. You have to admit that the options you have at your disposal are not the options that everyone else has. The Daytona obviously doesn't fall into this category.

When I found a dealer with an LV and was looking at trading my 16610 in, he was willing to sell the LV at list, but would give me only 2000 for mine. AD's are never the place to get rid of your watch, unless you do as JJ suggested and let them sell it for you. That's assuming your local AD sells used. None of mine do.

[JJ Irani]

Originally Posted by s7horton

Something to keep in mind, JJ, with you is that you don't pay retail for your watches. For someone who pays retail (either being a new buyer, or buying a highly sought after watch) you will never get your money back. You have to admit that the options you have at your disposal are not the options that everyone else has. The Daytona obviously doesn't fall into this category.

When I found a dealer with an LV and was looking at trading my 16610 in, he was willing to sell the LV at list, but would give me only 2000 for mine. AD's are never the place to get rid of your watch, unless you do as JJ suggested and let them sell it for you. That's assuming your local AD sells used. None of mine do.

Mine certainly does....and he seems to flip them over with an amazing and regular frequency.

He has a special section laid out in his display window marked "Used Rolex". Every time I visit his shop, he has a "new" used consignment in.

JJ

Originally Posted by JJ Irani

Mine certainly does....and he seems to flip them over with an amazing and regular frequency.

He has a special section laid out in his display window marked "Used Rolex". Every time I visit his shop, he has a "new" used consignment in.

JJ

So you learned your flipping from the master, then.

[JJ Irani]

Originally Posted by Atomic

So you learned your flipping from the master, then.

We all have our Teachers in life. Look at the amount of "Tossing" you guys picked up from me, the KING TOSSER from DOWNUNDER!!

[C.J.]

I think alot depends on the model. Most of us here know about the different models Rolex has to offer and appreciates them for their differences. Whereas, most non Wis only know of the popular ones. That's why they say a 16610 is like a back-up cash reserve on your wrist if you ever get into trouble while traveling