Talking Stocks 2.0

[MichaelFlash]

Got out of my RCL short from Wednesday. Very nice return.

[austinp]

Do you guys that are active traders grade yourself against the averages? Only reason I ask is the index mutual funds I have are just about even YTD. I never sold anything. Rode it down then back up. Is anyone beating the averages? A brokerage account I have is also almost even without selling anything.

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[kieselguhr]

Added more AMD today. Added MRVL. Also, turns out I get to keep all my airlines positions after all. It wouldn’t have bothered me if they got called away but I couldn’t understand why the sudden upward trend early this week.

[RyanO]

Any thoughts on Moderna stock?

[cornerstore]

Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway reports nearly $50 billion loss

[capital]

Doesn't mean much, it's mainly unrealized losses from the market crash.

[cornerstore]

[QUOTE=capital;10586300]Doesn't mean much, it's mainly unrealized losses from the market crash.[/QUOTE
A loss of value is still a loss. Berkshire reported a first-quarter loss of $49.7 billion, or $30,653 per Class A share equivalent. The majority of operating businesses also lost money but were offset by insurance revenue. Interesting to see how the insurance profits play out as various extraordinary claims start coming in. Insurance costs in 2019 went up dramatically so those higher revenues were theoretically already baked into the stock price.

[77T]

Don’t confuse a write down as an operating loss. The headline that media schmucks used in their reporting misleads investors.

Revenue rose to top $61 billion and operating earnings rose nearly 6% to $5.9 billion in the quarter. Keep those numbers in mind.




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[cornerstore]

Originally Posted by 77T

Don’t confuse a write down as an operating loss. The headline that media schmucks used in their reporting misleads investors.

Revenue rose to top $61 billion and operating earnings rose nearly 6% to $5.9 billion in the quarter. Keep those numbers in mind.




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Thanks for clarifying, I do realize those headline numbers are equity value losses. When reading past the headlines it was the various operating losses offset by increased insurance revenue in the operating profit numbers you posted that I found interesting. I suspect some serious insurance payouts in next qtr. results, combined with further operating losses and tightening of dividend receivables and possibly defaults on loans receivables will be in the offing for Berkshire. Stock buy backs they announced are such a crutch and provide nothing more than a financial smoke screen.

[Tha Baron]

Nuggets that Buffet did disclose or were apparent:

- He dumped his whole airline position in April
- He looked quite old and not as sharp
- BRK has a cash hoard of $130B, but only spent $3B on buybacks and limited stock positioning.
- he’s still bullish on U.s equities over 20-30 year horizon

Translation... he didn’t buy much of anything and sold 4 airline positions where had close to 10% stakes in.

[SBR]

Originally Posted by Tha Baron

Nuggets that Buffet did disclose or were apparent:

- He dumped his whole airline position in April
- He looked quite old and not as sharp
- BRK has a cash hoard of $130B, but only spent $3B on buybacks and limited stock positioning.
- he’s still bullish on U.s equities over 20-30 year horizon

Translation... he didn’t buy much of anything and sold 4 airline positions where had close to 10% stakes in.

What is also telling is that they did not buy on the March lows. That tells me that they feel the low is not in yet.

[77T]

Originally Posted by SBR

What is also telling is that they did not buy on the March lows. That tells me that they feel the low is not in yet.

Possibly. But April could have been when they pulled buy triggers.

Also, the way they operate isn’t by jumping into anything. There is a process that can take a while to green light pulling the trigger.

If any of their existing positions were going to be bargains - and would be the right mix after the selling spree was over - then they might have added more to it.

But we won’t know until Aug. 1st - and at least the forecast through Q3 is upward earnings.



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[RyanO]

Everyone talks about this big cash hoard that Berkshire has, but they are an insurer, and this ladies and gents is an insurance event. They are probably trying to determine what their exposure is, so they need a certain cash cushion to be sure they can safely weather this storm. Just my .02

[piratepress]

Originally Posted by SBR

What is also telling is that they did not buy on the March lows. That tells me that they feel the low is not in yet.

Interesting. I certainly hope this is the case as I'm still looking to buy.

[cornerstore]

The Bureau of Economic Analysis reported that the savings rate in the United States spiked to 13.1% in March -- the highest level since November 1981. That cash hoarding reflects a deep level of nervousness about the economy.
Consumer spending, the main driver of growth, plunged by 7.5% in March. That's the biggest drop on records going back to 1959.

These are March numbers when the month was split between raging economy and contraction mid month. It will be interesting to see April data after a full months contraction and sentiment.

[beshannon]

Originally Posted by Tha Baron

Nuggets that Buffet did disclose or were apparent:

- He dumped his whole airline position in April
- He looked quite old and not as sharp
- BRK has a cash hoard of $130B, but only spent $3B on buybacks and limited stock positioning.
- he’s still bullish on U.s equities over 20-30 year horizon

Translation... he didn’t buy much of anything and sold 4 airline positions where had close to 10% stakes in.

Not surprising this happened

Originally Posted by SBR

What is also telling is that they did not buy on the March lows. That tells me that they feel the low is not in yet.

That is not how Bershire and Buffett invest

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/05/03/stoc...ogan-says.html

I am in the trading range camp, I do not believe we retest and the rally that took place was snap back from a too far decline.

Airlines deserve to be sold, their business is in ruins. As for what/when Buffett buys yes the have insurance issues but he maintains that he still does not see anything attractive. Remember this is the person that lent GE money and received convertible securities, translation: GE had no choice at the time. Buffett is not buying a stock because it has been beaten down, he is looking for huge no-win situations for the company and that has not always been a good move for him.

He bought IBM, KHC, OXY and avoided AAPL and MSFT for years.

Caveat Emptor

[JParm]

Bought into AMZN post-close Friday, plan to add to it today as well with futures down. Looking to start a position in ULTA today.

Will be watching DIS, RTX and ALXN as they report earnings throughout the week to buy on a possible dip.

[Uggi]

Originally Posted by beshannon

Not surprising this happened



That is not how Bershire and Buffett invest

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/05/03/stoc...ogan-says.html

I am in the trading range camp, I do not believe we retest and the rally that took place was snap back from a too far decline.

Airlines deserve to be sold, their business is in ruins. As for what/when Buffett buys yes the have insurance issues but he maintains that he still does not see anything attractive. Remember this is the person that lent GE money and received convertible securities, translation: GE had no choice at the time. Buffett is not buying a stock because it has been beaten down, he is looking for huge no-win situations for the company and that has not always been a good move for him.

He bought IBM, KHC, OXY and avoided AAPL and MSFT for years.

Caveat Emptor

Really good article that and I agree with the sentiment about "churning through the middle ground".
On Buffet - although he has made some spectacularly good moves at times (his Goldman deal for eg) he isn't an infallible wizard. To be fair to him he doesn't claim to be, but other people sometimes put that on him.
I've never owned any stake in BRK.B.
I do like his pithy quotes though.

[beshannon]

Originally Posted by jpeezy14@hotmail.com

Bought into AMZN post-close Friday, plan to add to it today as well with futures down. Looking to start a position in ULTA today.

Will be watching DIS, RTX and ALXN as they report earnings throughout the week to buy on a possible dip.

I would like to buy back AMZN but I am not sure it will go back below 2000, I sold DIS last week, they will need longer to ramp back up, IMHO

I am still looking but not really finding anything at this point

[SMD]

Originally Posted by beshannon

Remember this is the person that lent GE money and received convertible securities, translation: GE had no choice at the time. Buffett is not buying a stock because it has been beaten down, he is looking for huge no-win situations for the company and that has not always been a good move for him.

He bought IBM, KHC, OXY and avoided AAPL and MSFT for years.

Caveat Emptor

Buffet has not invested this time because the fed stepped in much faster to prevent disaster. That was not the case last time so there were lots of opportunities for him where it was heads he wins and tails you lose. Not the case now so he is sitting on his hands. People have this mythical view of buffet as some down home folksy guy -- reality is (as someone who was on the other side of a deal of Berkshire once in my former life) Berkshire are ruthless killers that get smoking deals because of the name. He rails against PE funds because they are competition for him and they bid up the price. Anyway, I would not read more into his inactivity other than he cannot get a smoking deal right now, but when he can he will move.

[logo]

Originally Posted by beshannon

I would like to buy back AMZN but I am not sure it will go back below 2000, I sold DIS last week, they will need longer to ramp back up, IMHO

I am still looking but not really finding anything at this point

For Amazon I just don’t see a realistic way for this stock to get back above 2300 securely for many months. Barring a surprise at Q2 earnings, we’ve already been warned to expect no profits so any rise in share price now seems unsustainable for the short-medium term IMO. Whether that means it’s share price drops or just sort of hovers I’m not sure yet, but agree at the right price it would be of interest.

[JParm]

Originally Posted by logo

For Amazon I just don’t see a realistic way for this stock to get back above 2300 securely for many months. Barring a surprise at Q2 earnings, we’ve already been warned to expect no profits so any rise in share price now seems unsustainable for the short-medium term IMO. Whether that means it’s share price drops or just sort of hovers I’m not sure yet, but agree at the right price it would be of interest.

https://www.marketbeat.com/stocks/NA.../price-target/

I would say most analysts would disagree.

https://seekingalpha.com/article/434...orth-4900-2024

That one is a bit far out, but still an opposing view to digest.

[beshannon]

Originally Posted by logo

For Amazon I just don’t see a realistic way for this stock to get back above 2300 securely for many months. Barring a surprise at Q2 earnings, we’ve already been warned to expect no profits so any rise in share price now seems unsustainable for the short-medium term IMO. Whether that means it’s share price drops or just sort of hovers I’m not sure yet, but agree at the right price it would be of interest.

Originally Posted by jpeezy14@hotmail.com

https://www.marketbeat.com/stocks/NA.../price-target/

I would say many most analysts would disagree.

https://seekingalpha.com/article/434...orth-4900-2024

That one is a bit far out, but still an opposing view to digest.

All valid points on AMZN

The important thing to remember is that Jeff Bezos can "turn on" profits any time he wants to. AMZN is becoming cautious but their scale is simply too big to ignore.

[Uggi]

Originally Posted by logo

For Amazon I just don’t see a realistic way for this stock to get back above 2300 securely for many months. Barring a surprise at Q2 earnings, we’ve already been warned to expect no profits so any rise in share price now seems unsustainable for the short-medium term IMO. Whether that means it’s share price drops or just sort of hovers I’m not sure yet, but agree at the right price it would be of interest.

Just shot beyond 2300.
Proving impossible to predict this market.

[beshannon]

Originally Posted by Uggi

Just shot beyond 2300.
Proving impossible to predict this market.

Well in all fairness, impossible over the span of 60 minutes yes, I am looking out 12-18 months

[logo]

Originally Posted by jpeezy14@hotmail.com

https://www.marketbeat.com/stocks/NA.../price-target/

I would say most analysts would disagree.

https://seekingalpha.com/article/434...orth-4900-2024

That one is a bit far out, but still an opposing view to digest.

Originally Posted by Uggi

Just shot beyond 2300.
Proving impossible to predict this market.

Originally Posted by beshannon

Well in all fairness, impossible over the span of 60 minutes yes, I am looking out 12-18 months

Yes, I would agree with a 12-18 month target in the 2500-2600 range. But in the shorter term I suspect around 2300 or lower. I will hold out for now in anticipation of it getting below 2200 or 2100 at some point within the next couple weeks, or at minimum not changing in price much. No rush on this one for me.

[JParm]

Originally Posted by logo

Yes, I would agree with a 12-18 month target in the 2500-2600 range. But in the shorter term I suspect around 2300 or lower. I will hold out for now in anticipation of it getting below 2200 or 2100 at some point within the next couple weeks.

I would love to see it around $2100. My next add price would be $2200, though I don't know if we'll get down to that.

[Uggi]

Originally Posted by beshannon

Well in all fairness, impossible over the span of 60 minutes yes, I am looking out 12-18 months

Me too, maybe a bit longer. I'm not buying Amazon at current prices but many times in the past I've sold my stakes in Amazon thinking "this is it, this is the ceiling" and the price just marches on upwards. If someone (not me) bought even now at 2300 I don't they'd be too disappointed 2 years from now.

[SackLVG]

Just dove headfirst into Southwest and Delta. I don't know, I might need a parachute in 6 months.

[MichaelFlash]

Originally Posted by SackLVG

Just dove headfirst into Southwest and Delta. I don't know, I might need a parachute in 6 months.

Southwest may be a good buy...I was thinking about it as well