Talking Stocks 2.0

[PeqFB]

Originally Posted by kaiserphoenix

Man so true. Every time I try to analyse and predict anything, the opposite happens.

We must have the same system.

[JParm]

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/06/04/jim-...ve-stocks.html

Cramer does have a point here - seeing a lot of speculation vs. actual investing in conversations that I've had with friends.

[supernova]

No stopping BA these days, up 25% in last 3 days... Anyone catch AAL today? Nice pop cause China allowing US flights to resume..

[beshannon]

Originally Posted by jpeezy14@hotmail.com

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/06/04/jim-...ve-stocks.html

Cramer does have a point here - seeing a lot of speculation vs. actual investing in conversations that I've had with friends.

Agreed, which makes me think we are near a short term top

[beshannon]

Actually glad to see a bit of a sell off after 5 up days need to take some of the froth out, jobs numbers tomorrow people are taking profits here and with good reason

[Fleetlord]

Originally Posted by jpeezy14@hotmail.com

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/06/03/the-...as-feared.html

And then you've got articles like this saying the COVID recession is essentially done for...

Definitely a difficult time to make investment decisions, but all we can do is research and try and put the best foot possible. For us, that means being a bit more defensive and at the very least not chasing on green days.

I agree with this. The jobs affected were mostly lower income, BUT flexibly skilled workers...they have lots of options as the restrictions are lifted.

What we didn't see an whole lot of was older, established, high income workers laid off such as in '08. That was really nasty as you would see many executives in their 50's, with VERY specific (but high earning) skills, lose their positions and end up working much lower income jobs as their options were very limited. That, combined with the credit crunch, really smashed the economy for a long drawn out slog. Many never got back on track and were left behind as younger workers replaced them.

I even think we are at the point now that if the virus comes back in earnest, not many will really care all that much to put a significant hurting on the economy again...

Sounds absolutely crazy, after all the "negative" job reports and economic news, but the economic activity on the streets seems to contradict all that.

I would disagree with me as well, based on the maths, but I just don't feel the same retraction as back in 08...

Seems the market is plugged into this vibe as well

[77T]

Originally Posted by jpeezy14@hotmail.com

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/06/04/jim-...ve-stocks.html

Cramer does have a point here - seeing a lot of speculation vs. actual investing in conversations that I've had with friends.

We know how addictive gambling can be, zero transaction fees reminds me of Las Vegas offering free drinks at the tables.

Cramer was kind to call it speculation...


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Pro

[beshannon]

https://www.thestreet.com/markets/5-...-friday-060520

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/newsl...?sref=Hny5JH2p

Consumer spending, Jobs report, Stimulus . . . this market just keeps rolling on. A lot of hope is pushing prices higher.

3150 on the S&P was a target for many analysts, we need to see if the market can break higher and close above that or we need several attempts.

My current strategy remains the same as several stocks ran away from my buy points and I need to re-evaluate where a new buy point might be.

The market rally will ‘end in tears,’ but for now ‘betting on humanity’ remains the best bet in history, analyst says

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/th...ess-2020-06-04

[JParm]

Originally Posted by beshannon

https://www.thestreet.com/markets/5-...-friday-060520

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/newsl...?sref=Hny5JH2p

Consumer spending, Jobs report, Stimulus . . . this market just keeps rolling on. A lot of hope is pushing prices higher.

3150 on the S&P was a target for many analysts, we need to see if the market can break higher and close above that or we need several attempts.

My current strategy remains the same as several stocks ran away from my buy points and I need to re-evaluate where a new buy point might be.



https://www.marketwatch.com/story/th...ess-2020-06-04

This. I think as stops have increased, buy points now have to be increased as well.

The market seems to be roaring along, and what we're seeing is:
1.) More states and businesses continue to reopen
2.) The Fed (and other countries!) throwing all the money that they can to back up the economy
3.) A return in demand for retail, airlines, etc.

As most have said, the only thing that could derail all of this is a 2nd wave of the virus. The protests and Chinese relations have done nothing to abate the drive upward.

I will say though, that the 2nd Q earnings will be brutal, as we all know...now whether the market reacts to those earnings calls in a very negative manner or shrugs them of as a known entity is the thing to watch for.

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/06/05/ecb-...mains-low.html

[logo]

I think i am having a harder time convincing myself that the market is forward looking. Rather, it actually doesn’t seem to care and just keeps getting pumped to move higher, be it the Fed, FOMO, short covering etc. There is just no business-oriented rationale as to why in the span of one week several airlines and cruise lines gain 30%+ on no real news, and several retail, apparel and financials are basically near normal levels. To me this makes rationalizing an appropriate buy point very challenging, since I don’t believe these stocks are reflecting their current or near future values at all. Then again, I guess I should just put money in and it’ll probably be up 30% by next weekend.

[beshannon]

Originally Posted by logo

There is just no business-oriented rationale as to why in the span of one week several airlines and cruise lines gain 30%+ on no real news, and several retail, apparel and financials are basically near normal levels.

Buyers believe that business will return to "normal"

What is normal? Was it normal back in February? The market is forward looking in so far as it believes that business "will" be better. I believe that it will take longer and there will be setbacks as earnings reality hits.

Having said that even though I am not finding things to buy I still hold several core long positions and other trades that I will be content to raise my stops on and enjoy the rally. It certainly beats March with every gut wrenching down day.

Hedge Funds lately have been great contrary indicators

https://seekingalpha.com/article/435...-market-plunge

I am watching sentiment gauges and where the small trader is. That is usually the sign of a top when everyone wants in the pool, I do not think we are there yet.

Bearish sentiment fell back below 40% to 38.87%. That is the first time that it has been below 40% in 12 weeks.

https://seekingalpha.com/article/435...ent-normalized

"I would say the economic data is old news for the market's purposes," says Preston Caldwell, senior equity analyst at Morningstar. "Right now, most market participants are looking beyond the [second quarter] to try to understand the second half of 2020 and beyond."

By that logic, the stock market is effectively telling us that the recovery will be relatively swift and robust. Let's hope. But this is a forecast, and one that's subject to revisions on a day-by-day basis.

https://seekingalpha.com/insight/inv...recovery-valid

[beshannon]

A lot of people back to work a lot faster

U.S. jobs unexpectedly increase in May
Jun. 5, 2020 8:33 AM ET|By: Liz Kiesche, SA News Editor
May nonfarm payrolls: +2.5M vs. -8.00M consensus and -20.7M previous (revised from -20.5M)

Unemployment rate: 13.3% vs. 19.7% consensus and 14.7% previous.

Dow Futures now up ~500, shorts to get steamrolled

[JParm]

I added very small number to a couple of my positions just now. That's great unemployment news and it looks like we should end the week strong.

Not really a chase, at this point. Just chipping away as we continue the upward move.

Don't fight the tape...

[beshannon]

Originally Posted by jpeezy14@hotmail.com

Don't fight the tape...

[supernova]

WTF how was there such a miss by economists and analysts on the payrolls, basically 10M jobs, -7.5M v +2.5M, miss to the upside!

Seems the market rally this week is somewhat justified!

[beshannon]

Originally Posted by supernova

WTF how was there such a miss by economists and analysts on the payrolls, basically 10M jobs, -7.5M v +2.5M, miss to the upside!

Seems the market rally this week is somewhat justified!

Because they just guess, been this way forever.

[JParm]

And for those that had been buying banks during the dip - well, it looks like we're back.

Stay the course, gents.

[supernova]

Originally Posted by beshannon

Because they just guess, been this way forever.

I understand it's a guess, but never seen them being off by 400%... I'm defintely not complaining though, I put all my eggs into recovery stocks last month as I was predicting for a fast recovery myself.

[Dusko.Popov]

I’m seeing disaster discounts still everywhere.

Airlines, cruise lines, restaurant industry, reit. That’s been my drum beat here for two solid months and more so recently even as *some* (reasonably and thoughtfully) cautioned years for even moderate equity recovery in those industries. Unfortunately these industries are swiftly course correcting out of discount territory.

Can’t say any of the above by referencing bollinger bands or moving averages but it seems like a lot of that fancy talk has just been a more nifty way to say “I have no clue what to expect” as this Covid thing has played out.

Hope y’all didn’t miss the boat on my solo drum beat earlier but investment (not trading) opportunities abound in good companies with good [relative] balance sheets - though in industries that oversold (and still fear) the Covid.

Re: my post from last week when I said I’ve been averaging up on Delta. Yea that averaging up was back at $23 a share.

I see value - considerable value still - in Cake (look at their recent sales report issued on Tuesday), Stor, spg, Dal, ual, bjri, live.

I’ll say again (I’m nothing if not consistent), this is all just a rerun folks. Nothing new to see here. Tune out the fear peddlers. They’re making money hoping for failure.

Invest in American resiliency. It always works.

But at the end of the day I’m just a small time country lawyer and not anythinf fancy so take my advice with a grain of salt.

Good luck and make money.

[JParm]

Originally Posted by Dusko.Popov

I’m seeing disaster discounts still everywhere.

Airlines, cruise lines, restaurant industry, reit. That’s been my drum beat here for two solid months and more so recently even as *some* (reasonably and thoughtfully) cautioned years for even moderate equity recovery in those industries. Unfortunately these industries are swiftly course correcting out of discount territory.

Can’t say any of the above by referencing bollinger bands or moving averages but it seems like a lot of that fancy talk has just been a more nifty way to say “I have no clue what to expect” as this Covid thing has played out.

Hope y’all didn’t miss the boat on my solo drum beat earlier but investment (not trading) opportunities abound in good companies with good [relative] balance sheets - though in industries that oversold (and still fear) the Covid.

Re: my post from last week when I said I’ve been averaging up on Delta. Yea that averaging up was back at $23 a share.

I see value - considerable value still - in Cake (look at their recent sales report issued on Tuesday), Stor, spg, Dal, ual, bjri, live.

I’ll say again (I’m nothing if not consistent), this is all just a rerun folks. Nothing new to see here. Tune out the fear peddlers. They’re making money hoping for failure.

Invest in American resiliency. It always works.

But at the end of the day I’m just a small time country lawyer and not anythinf fancy so take my advice with a grain of salt.

Good luck and make money.

One thing I will caution here - there seems to be a LOT of investors (if that's what we want to call them) piling into certain stocks with the "this stock used to be at this price, so it should get back to it!" mentality.

Yes, the economy seems to be coming back, but balance sheets still matter. I've kind of continued to beat the drum on this, but the speculation vs. actual investing is at the widest gap that we've seen.

[ronricks]

Originally Posted by logo

I think i am having a harder time convincing myself that the market is forward looking. Rather, it actually doesn’t seem to care and just keeps getting pumped to move higher, be it the Fed, FOMO, short covering etc. There is just no business-oriented rationale as to why in the span of one week several airlines and cruise lines gain 30%+ on no real news, and several retail, apparel and financials are basically near normal levels. To me this makes rationalizing an appropriate buy point very challenging, since I don’t believe these stocks are reflecting their current or near future values at all. Then again, I guess I should just put money in and it’ll probably be up 30% by next weekend.

A lot of the issues were because of the supposed threat of Covid-19 which in recent weeks has become an absolute mockery. People don't care about it anymore.

[Dusko.Popov]

Originally Posted by jpeezy14@hotmail.com

One thing I will caution here - there seems to be a LOT of investors (if that's what we want to call them) piling into certain stocks with the "this stock used to be at this price, so it should get back to it!" mentality.

Yes, the economy seems to be coming back, but balance sheets still matter. I've kind of continued to beat the drum on this, but the speculation vs. actual investing is at the widest gap that we've seen.

That’s a fair point.

And to be fair there is more volatility in the equity market to come. That’s the reason I invest and don’t trade (for the most part). There will be swings. And stock prices will ebb and flow.

Anyway, for those of us a little less knowledgeable in the numbers underlying the equity price in any given moment, I made my decisions by looking at historical trends, industry trends, quarterly earnings reports pre-Covid (I was interested in data back to 2017), and recovery in other disaster circumstances (if applicable which for companies like stor, live, etc., that data didn’t exist).

Juxtaposing that with what exactly the level of existential threat Covid is/was, the science and timeframes behind a vaccine or any type of “fix,” and just people’s developing response to the threat, that led me to not speculation, but a more than a modicum of investing confidence that an industry that was 80% down year over year when all the above historical data hadn’t changed, represented a profoundly oversold condition.

That may not be the most technical approach, but it wasn’t simply comparing and contrasting 6 months ago versus today either.

There was a gentleman who was on here whose job it is to advise people how to invest their money. People [rightly] thanked him for his contributions and guidance. Some asked him to join to share his professional advice.

He proceeded to talk about an economy and industries in burgeoning chaos with little to no prospect of near term recovery.

That to me seemed speculative and gratuitous.

And at least as far as what we know now, he couldn’t have been more wrong.

[JParm]

Originally Posted by Dusko.Popov

That’s a fair point.

And to be fair there is more volatility in the equity market to come. That’s the reason I invest and don’t trade (for the most part). There will be swings. And stock prices will ebb and flow

Anyway, for those of us a little less knowledgeable in the numbers underlying the equity price in any given moment, I’m looking at historical trends, quarterly earnings reports pre-Covid (I was interested in data back to 2017), and recovery in other disaster circumstances (if applicable which for companies like stor, live, etc., that data didn’t exist).

Juxtaposing that with what exactly the level of existential threat Covid is/was, the science and timeframes behind a vaccine or any type of “fix,” and just people’s developing response to the threat, that led me to not speculation, but a confidence that an industry that was 80% down year over year when all the above historical data hadn’t changed, represented a profoundly oversold condition.

That may not be the most technical approach, but it wasn’t simply comparing contrasting 6 months ago versus today either.

There was a gentleman who was on here whose job it is to advise people how to investment their money. People thanked him for his contributions and guidance. Some asked him to join to share his professional advise.

He proceeded to talk about an economy and industries in burgeoning chaos.

That to me seemed speculative and gratuitous.

And at least as far as what we know now, he couldn’t have been more wrong.

Definitely different ways to skin a cat, and I wasn't speaking about you specifically in my previous comment, so I hope you didn't take it as such.

I'm in agreement with you that there can be people who seem to think they know it all and will raise the doom / gloom flag, but all we can do as a group is educate one another and share as many resources as possible.

Everyone has their own strategy, and I think we as the TRF community should spread our knowledge and help one another out. Here's to hoping everyone crushes it!

[Dusko.Popov]

Originally Posted by jpeezy14@hotmail.com

Definitely different ways to skin a cat, and I wasn't speaking about you specifically in my previous comment, so I hope you didn't take it as such.

I'm in agreement with you that there can be people who seem to think they know it all and will raise the doom / gloom flag, but all we can do as a group is educate one another and share as many resources as possible.

Everyone has their own strategy, and I think we as the TRF community should spread our knowledge and help one another out. Here's to hoping everyone crushes it!

Appreciate that.

There are a handful of folks who I seek out there posts so I can learn more. Yours is one. Thank you for taking the time to share thoughts, articles, and strategies daily. It’s made me a better investor.

[beshannon]

Originally Posted by jpeezy14@hotmail.com

Definitely different ways to skin a cat, and I wasn't speaking about you specifically in my previous comment, so I hope you didn't take it as such.

I'm in agreement with you that there can be people who seem to think they know it all and will raise the doom / gloom flag, but all we can do as a group is educate one another and share as many resources as possible.

Everyone has their own strategy, and I think we as the TRF community should spread our knowledge and help one another out. Here's to hoping everyone crushes it!

Agreed

[JParm]

Any GOLD (or other mining company) buyers at the moment?

I've gone back and forth about adding it to my portfolio, especially with the recent downtrend. This was hot just a few months back, and I think could still be a good play with the endless amounts do debt that the US is incurring.

[logo]

Originally Posted by jpeezy14@hotmail.com

Any GOLD (or other mining company) buyers at the moment?

I've gone back and forth about adding it to my portfolio, especially with the recent downtrend. This was hot just a few months back.

I’m in GDX. I’m a little down now as I bought somewhat recently, but over the course of the year or so I anticipate it going up.

[beshannon]

And this is now one of the things that worry me

[JParm]

Originally Posted by logo

I’m in GDX. I’m a little down now as I bought somewhat recently, but over the course of the year or so I anticipate it going up.

I'd like to add either gold or silver, just for more diversification.

Originally Posted by beshannon

And this is now one of the things that worry me

Yes, definitely not the time to throw it all in at once. Cramer seems to be very bullish this morning, but we all know that ebbs and flows rather quickly.

[JParm]

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/06/05/trum...ady-to-go.html

If you didn't need more good news on a Friday to pump up the stock market...

I don't know how believable it is at this point, but it seems to be "anything to get the markets to continue on up" attitude.