Talking Stocks 2.0

[JParm]

Originally Posted by supernova

FSLY definitely easing some of my pain today but still getting crushed overall by my banks (and everything else)! Thinking of taking those losses and cycling into some big tech today...

I shed the banks a couple of days before the stress tests...too much uncertainty.

I also got out of LUV today pre-market, but still SAVE...want to recoup more of it before taking a loss.

[RyanO]

I think FB is a solid investment at these prices. Averaged down in my position today. I think this move is a bit overdone, IMO.

[mr ling]

Went long CSCO. Scooped 378 at $46, with a trailing stop $5.29
Max loss: $2,000

[RyanO]

Facebook reverses their stance

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/fa...ant-2020-06-26

[scarlet knight]

Originally Posted by RyanO

I think FB is a solid investment at these prices. Averaged down in my position today. I think this move is a bit overdone, IMO.

I sold a modest position in FB early today. I felt the same way about WFC when their fake account scandal broke. Just an air of arrogance . Same with Boeing with the 737Max problem. Need some clarity and a quick recognition of the problem from management. Usually, after the first shoe drops, there are more to come. Just my intuition after many years of investing.

[RyanO]

Originally Posted by scarlet knight

I sold a modest position in FB early today. I felt the same way about WFC when their fake account scandal broke. Just an air of arrogance . Same with Boeing with the 737Max problem. Need some clarity and a quick recognition of the problem from management. Usually, after the first shoe drops, there are more to come. Just my intuition after many years of investing.

See the link I just posted

[scarlet knight]

Originally Posted by RyanO

See the link I just posted

Thank you for the update. Pressure makes diamonds. I am going to stay out of FB for now. Don’t think Zuckerberg has a moral compass. I am among the few not personally on FB. I find something nefarious about this company. Again, just my feeling.

[JParm]

Today is the first day that I've thought about selling out to lock in profits.

That was a pretty major selloff by big tech. Many firms are putting a pause to online ads, earnings are going to be worse than imagined if we take NKE as an example (which the consensus has been that it's baked into the price, yet we've run up a bit far for that to be case), and now more and more states are putting a stop to the reopening.

Whether this is the 2nd wave or still the continuation of the 1st wave, it doesn't matter - it's still the same fear come to fruition, and that's another stoppage.

I'm not usually this bearish, as you guys know, but I've got a lot to think about this weekend...

[BNA/LION]

Originally Posted by sokoloka

Have until 2.30pm to send that fax ... maybe after hours announcement on Friday or pre market Monday - either way fingers crossed!

Looks like Monday Morning. I'm feeling good about the news being favorable. Have a Great weekend!

[RyanO]

Originally Posted by jpeezy14@hotmail.com

Today is the first day that I've thought about selling out to lock in profits.

That was a pretty major selloff by big tech. Many firms are putting a pause to online ads, earnings are going to be worse than imagined if we take NKE as an example (which the consensus has been that it's baked into the price, yet we've run up a bit far for that to be case), and now more and more states are putting a stop to the reopening.

Whether this is the 2nd wave or still the continuation of the 1st wave, it doesn't matter - it's still the same fear come to fruition, and that's another stoppage.

I'm not usually this bearish, as you guys know, but I've got a lot to think about this weekend...

Was a bit spooky today for sure. (And not a fun day to be holding FB!) A lot of fear converged on the markets today. Was a bit surprised to see that Zuckerberg’s announcing a changing of their policy didn’t seem to quell investor concerns, at least after hours. I still think FB is a long term solid investment, but near term sentiment is far from positive at the moment.

While I do think cases may continue to rise, I think it will remain focused in states that opened too early (and didn’t take the virus seriously) but don’t think states will fully shut down again.

Curios if you decide to book profits. Lots to think about for sure.


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[Uggi]

Originally Posted by scarlet knight

Thank you for the update. Pressure makes diamonds. I am going to stay out of FB for now. Don’t think Zuckerberg has a moral compass. I am among the few not personally on FB. I find something nefarious about this company. Again, just my feeling.

Not just you. I've never owned FB and never would. Insidious company with no moral compass as you say. Also no teenager or person in their early 20s would be seen dead on their platform - I have two daughters in their teens and to them and their friends FB is the height of uncool stuffiness, something only old people would share photos and posts on. I'm not convinced their model will survive, although I think Zuckerberg will try to protect his position through acquisitions and might do it successfully, they certainly have the money.
I'm with you though - it isn't a company I want to own and make money out of.

[pearson1995]

Originally Posted by Uggi

Not just you. I've never owned FB and never would. Insidious company with no moral compass as you say. Also no teenager or person in their early 20s would be seen dead on their platform - I have two daughters in their teens and to them and their friends FB is the height of uncool stuffiness, something only old people would share photos and posts on. I'm not convinced their model will survive, although I think Zuckerberg will try to protect his position through acquisitions and might do it successfully, they certainly have the money.
I'm with you though - it isn't a company I want to own and make money out of.

I’m in my 20’s. I like Facebook as a product but you’re correct, it’s not what many people younger than me go on. But you know what is the in thing right now, Instagram. An every time You open that app you see at the bottom of the page “from Facebook”

I have no idea if Facebook is a company you should invest in, but I don’t doubt the data and other products Facebook own is worth more than the Facebook app itself.

[Uggi]

Originally Posted by pearson1995

I’m in my 20’s. I like Facebook as a product but you’re correct, it’s not what many people younger than me go on. But you know what is the in thing right now, Instagram. An every time You open that app you see at the bottom of the page “from Facebook”

I have no idea if Facebook is a company you should invest in, but I don’t doubt the data and other products Facebook own is worth more than the Facebook app itself.

Agreed. That's what I meant by acquisitions keeping their model alive - both the Instagram and the WhatsApp acquisitions were really important for them. But the underlying FB product is fading (perhaps I overstated it by saying "no one" under 30 uses it but it definitely isn't seen as cool by the majority of that demographic) and I can imagine it no longer being at all popular in 10 years time, maybe even defunct.

[supernova]

FB may be "uncool" for the under 30s but what I can see is that IG is the "cool" one for that demo, which FB owns anyways, so they seem to have it covered!

All the ad boycotting isn't going to deter users to stop using FB and IG, so these companies will need to eventually reengage in the ads or they will be missing out on alot of views.

[logo]

Originally Posted by jpeezy14@hotmail.com

Today is the first day that I've thought about selling out to lock in profits.

That was a pretty major selloff by big tech. Many firms are putting a pause to online ads, earnings are going to be worse than imagined if we take NKE as an example (which the consensus has been that it's baked into the price, yet we've run up a bit far for that to be case), and now more and more states are putting a stop to the reopening.

Whether this is the 2nd wave or still the continuation of the 1st wave, it doesn't matter - it's still the same fear come to fruition, and that's another stoppage.

I'm not usually this bearish, as you guys know, but I've got a lot to think about this weekend...

My perspective, is outside of GOOGL and FB, the tech sell off wasn’t all that big really - more of a necessary fat trimming after a good run up. Had something similar just two weeks ago - MSFT down 2%, AAPL down 3%, AMZN down 2% etc. We’re still higher than we were two weeks ago for all of those. In non tech, also a bit of a selected trim - companies hit hard by covid are correcting to a lower price after running up way too high (airlines, a few others - prepandemic levels realistically wont be justified in these industries for several years IMO.

GOOGL and FB are a bit different. FB has reached new all time highs, while GOOGL is still well below it’s all tome high. On the one hand, advertising is a main revenue source and maybe ad volume is down due to the pandemic - likely transient. On the other, at least companies like GOOGL are rapidly expanding in AI, health, cloud and other bets. Not a company that is going to disappear, and anyone buying under 1500 is still getting a discount from where it probably should be if we are forward looking. My opinion, FB and GOOGL were oversold yesterday.

All that to say, I’m not too worried about the tech/overall sell off yesterday, but will keep an eye on next week.

What does worry me is the unclear messaging on covid. I’m a doctor, we’ve known this pandemic was here to stay until either (a) a sufficiently high proportion of the population gets infected, or (b) there’s a vaccine. There’s no in between, barring a miracle. That means off and on social distancing intensity to keep hospital volume under control until one of the above happens. I don’t think we’ll get to a situation where we are losing control like we did initially, as we are now more prepared. I feel right now so much movement in the market is based on fear of what’s coming, when in the medical community we’ve known all along that there will be waves until it’s over, and that more cases are expected with reopening. At the same time, we can’t social distance forever, so need reopening - just need to find the right balance. I think if investors knew more about these things up front it would have allowed for a better “baked in” price estimate for stocks, so that we don’t have as much volatility and when we hear “XYZ is closing stores again”, or “ABC missed their estimates”, that doesn’t come as a surprise.

I don’t think we’ll see the market dip significantly like March. I do think there may be more stimulus. I also think a deeper mini dip from where we’re at now is not out of the question, but also could see things cruising along as they have. I’m not super bullish, but just some other perspectives to ponder over the weekend.

I’d be curious to hear from some other investors on rationales for or against selling out currently, so we can get a sense of where we’re at and help each other out.

[sokoloka]

Originally Posted by BNA/LION

Looks like Monday Morning. I'm feeling good about the news being favorable. Have a Great weekend!

You as well! Been in this since 2018 starting in the high 20's so looking forward to have cause for celebration!

[scarlet knight]

The Covid situation does seem to be messy in the US. If positive treatment or vaccine news comes out, we are off to the races. Could happen any day.

[Dusko.Popov]

Originally Posted by scarlet knight

The Covid situation does seem to be messy in the US. If positive treatment or vaccine news comes out, we are off to the races. Could happen any day.

Yep. Market driven by perceived existential threat.

I actually hope that equities touch March lows. I’ll be buying cake, Nclh, and dal even at those March 20 levels.

Love these coupons.

I’m buying 100 more shares of Norwegian tomorrow if it touches $14 and another 100 shares if it touches $12. That would put me around 750 shares.

I’ve been waiting for this hesitant equity environment and expecting the psychology of fear to drive it. Don’t understand the fear - but I’ll capitalize on it. People are selling me their shares cheap.

I’m ready for more.

The more you sweat in peacetime, the less you bleed in war.

[Screwly]

Originally Posted by BNA/LION

Looks like Monday Morning. I'm feeling good about the news being favorable. Have a Great weekend!

https://www.google.com/amp/s/seeking...operative-pain

[m j b]

Huh. I expected more comments from fellow HRTX owners.

Me, I added to my position last week to what is, now, an uncomfortably high level and I am, needless to say, disappointed.

Hopefully they'll get these issues resolved sooner than later, but still, it's discouraging.

In the good news department, the stock has come up off of the day's lows.

[AshCashEmAll]

Originally Posted by jpeezy14@hotmail.com

Today is the first day that I've thought about selling out to lock in profits.

That was a pretty major selloff by big tech. Many firms are putting a pause to online ads, earnings are going to be worse than imagined if we take NKE as an example (which the consensus has been that it's baked into the price, yet we've run up a bit far for that to be case), and now more and more states are putting a stop to the reopening.

Whether this is the 2nd wave or still the continuation of the 1st wave, it doesn't matter - it's still the same fear come to fruition, and that's another stoppage.

I'm not usually this bearish, as you guys know, but I've got a lot to think about this weekend...

Should’ve sold off in the beginning of the day especially since FSLY dropped 8%. Day looks like it’s taking a turn for the better considering where it was at the start. Did you end up selling to lock profits?


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[JParm]

Originally Posted by AshCashEmAll

Should’ve sold off in the beginning of the day especially since FSLY dropped 8%. Day looks like it’s taking a turn for the better considering where it was at the start. Did you end up selling to lock profits?


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

I stayed in for all my stocks. Decided that if we were to go down south even more, I'd just average down. With the long horizon we have, I just figured leave it in.

Friday put some fear into me a bit, but had the weekend to think more clearly (we're in Daytona Beach through today, so not much watching/actuon for me today).

[BNA/LION]

Originally Posted by m j b

Huh. I expected more comments from fellow HRTX owners.

Me, I added to my position last week to what is, now, an uncomfortably high level and I am, needless to say, disappointed.

Hopefully they'll get these issues resolved sooner than later, but still, it's discouraging.

In the good news department, the stock has come up off of the day's lows.

I almost added the last few weeks too but I have a Very substantial long position already. After listening to the CEO today and analyzing the situation I think they will apply with the FDA for "Type A" review and get it. Disappointing but it's not a rejection letter. Anticipating 3-6 months or sooner this should be behind us.

[sokoloka]

Originally Posted by m j b

Huh. I expected more comments from fellow HRTX owners.

Me, I added to my position last week to what is, now, an uncomfortably high level and I am, needless to say, disappointed.

Hopefully they'll get these issues resolved sooner than later, but still, it's discouraging.

In the good news department, the stock has come up off of the day's lows.

Originally Posted by BNA/LION

I almost added the last few weeks too but I have a Very substantial long position already. After listening to the CEO today and analyzing the situation I think they will apply with the FDA for "Type A" review and get it. Disappointing but it's not a rejection letter. Anticipating 3-6 months or sooner this should be behind us.

Well, disappointed but not discouraged! Have a substantial long position myself that was pegged around a $19.82 weighted average so wasn't thrilled with today's news ... took the opportunity to add an additional 1000 shares and pull myself down by another 50 cents on the whole.

Optimistic for a positive response by year end.

[fastmd]

Originally Posted by BNA/LION

I almost added the last few weeks too but I have a Very substantial long position already. After listening to the CEO today and analyzing the situation I think they will apply with the FDA for "Type A" review and get it. Disappointing but it's not a rejection letter. Anticipating 3-6 months or sooner this should be behind us.

As someone who has developed drugs for over 2 decades and lead global R&D in big Pharma, this is odd. Pre-clinical issues are known prior to p3. They must have had concurrent tox studies or run additional tox and submitted with the NDA. Golden rule of drug development-once tox requirements are done, never repeat.

A CRl is a rejection. The FDA switched from “rejection/not- approvable letters a long time ago.

I was pulling for them. It’s needed for patients and physicians.

[KrismanX]

For someone looking to educate themselves on trading, what resources do you guys recommend?

Any particular teachers or things to follow or focus on?

[904VT]

Originally Posted by KrismanX

For someone looking to educate themselves on trading, what resources do you guys recommend?

Any particular teachers or things to follow or focus on?

IMO first step would be to determine which discipline you would like to follow:

-Fundamental
-Technical
-Alternative Strats and Hard Assets

My preference for the above in order would be Ben Graham (always relevant), CMT curriculum (most applicable technical set out there), and Mark Anson (CALPERS CIO when they were leading innovation).

[RyanO]

Cramer adding Fastly to his Covid portfolio

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vh8uI23Wqr8

[AshCashEmAll]

Originally Posted by RyanO

Cramer adding Fastly to his Covid portfolio

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vh8uI23Wqr8

Hell yah glad I held


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[scarlet knight]

I usually use the George Costanza doctrine on Cramer’s recommendations. I do the opposite.