Are we going to see vintage watches at 5+ years ago prices?

[jedly1]

For large sections of the world , and probably soon very much more , it’s impossible to trade full stop ... borders are closed , travel
Is barred , flights are cancelled ... couriers have been released to leave parcels without signing so insurance is invalidated ..... other than a local f2f sales are pretty much impossible .... big on hold button had been Pushed and is time to worry about Much more important things ....both here and uk have been warned that in the real world we need to expect these restrictions to last most likely for 6 months ..

[L.K Johnson]

Chrono24 might be bias in regards to this matter, but here is their analysis published on Friday:

https://www.watchpro.com/the-big-int...-online-sales/

[fusionstorm]

I’ve said this on a few threads and fora. The level of wealth globally now, even after the equities markets have taken a noticeable tumble, still dwarfs what life was like back in 2008-2009. Not that being a billionaire is insignificant now, but the number of them (and the level the top 100 have risen to) now is markedly different than the last downturn. Check out the 2009 Forbes billionaire list, which had Bill Gates at the top slot with $40B when the list was published:

https://www.forbes.com/lists/2009/10...ires_Rank.html

Now compare to the real time (gotta love technology advances) Forbes billionaire list, where $40B would put you just outside of the Top 20:

https://www.forbes.com/real-time-bil.../#72a2ea533d78

This same dichotomy percolates down the range. A 6-figure USD salary for newly minted college grads in many STEM fields has been pretty much a de facto standard for a number of years till now, whereas it was much more hit and miss 12 years ago. In the major metros, there are still plenty of folks who are still comfortably well off even as their stock portfolios and 401Ks took a significant hit.

Many of us lived thru the Great Recession and the following Great Recovery. If you’re a believer that history often repeats itself when it comes to cataclysmic economic downturns, you can’t at the same time poo poo the idea that a recovery thereafter has a decent chance of being repeated to some noticeable extent.

There are far more collectors of vintage now than there were in 2007. A good number of those collectors didn’t overextend themselves to acquire the pieces that they did. Any vintage dealer that has been in the game for a decade or more has likely done pretty well for him or herself in that time (short of any “life leak vices”).

Where this long-winded take from me is concluding is that while there will be some softening of prices and the occasional fire sale by a collector or dealer, the doom and gloom that affected a lot of folks during the Great Recession won’t be as prevalent this time around IMO.

We’ll see in due time how cold or hot this take of mine will be. In the meanwhile, everyone please be safe out there!

[Gee2789]

I don’t think prices will be immune to the economic slowdown, but I doubt we will see a drastic fall in quality pieces. The vintage market was already starting to bifurcate with mediocre pieces being sold at significant discounts or not at all when compared to collector quality pieces.

My own opinion is that you’ll continue to find a weakening market for mediocre pieces, while prices for high quality pieces stagnant as the opportunity cost of a dollar becomes higher (eg better potential returns in the equity market).

I also think that you may not even see these collector pieces hit the secondary market since they’ll be traded among collectors outside of the forums/auctions/online sales platforms. The thought process is that when you have a $50/80/100k watch you’re trying to sell, counter-party risk is your biggest concern. Auctions generally help you avoid this exposure by charging you a fee. However, I feel the watch community is getting more and more connected, and it’s now easier to meet another trusted collector/buyer through meet ups, private dealers, etc.

[cardiel]

Where this long-winded take from me is concluding is that while there will be some softening of prices and the occasional fire sale by a collector or dealer, the doom and gloom that affected a lot of folks during the Great Recession won’t be as prevalent this time around IMO.

Are you talking about 2008 or 1929, I cant tell............either way there is a possibility of an economic down turn the like of which none of us, nor our grandparents, have ever seen before..........so be ready to buckle up. I don't do predictions - hence the use of the word 'possibility'........but we cannot continue these conversations as if a massive economic disruption won't affect us. It will.........its just the extent or severity that is unknown.

[Dan S]

Nobody has a crystal ball, but personally I think that many people are being too optimistic in thinking that life (and the economy) will just return to normal once this first outbreak passes. We are going to see massive levels of unemployment, and that won't turn around on a dime. Moreover, there's a reasonable chance that we may see another outbreak in the Fall, before the economy has even had a chance to recover, and possibly another one in Fall 2021 before we have a viable vaccine. Unfortunately, I'm bracing for sustained pain around the world, and we may need to accustom ourselves to a "new normal". We would all be wise to prepare as best we can, and if things turn out to be better than expected ... great.

Watch prices are the least of my concerns, but I certainly don't think they will be immune from the pain. If I were a dealer with a large inventory, I would definitely be thinking about getting some of them sold to reduce my exposure, and in fact I'm already seeing some prices dropping a bit.

[springer]

Originally Posted by Dan S

Nobody has a crystal ball, but personally I think that many people are being too optimistic in thinking that life (and the economy) will just return to normal once this first outbreak passes. We are going to see massive levels of unemployment, and that won't turn around on a dime. Moreover, there's a reasonable chance that we may see another outbreak in the Fall, before the economy has even had a chance to recover, and possibly another one in Fall 2021 before we have a viable vaccine. Unfortunately, I'm bracing for sustained pain around the world, and we may need to accustom ourselves to a "new normal". We would all be wise to prepare as best we can, and if things turn out to be better than expected ... great.

Watch prices are the least of my concerns, but I certainly don't think they will be immune from the pain. If I were a dealer with a large inventory, I would definitely be thinking about getting some of them sold to reduce my exposure, and in fact I'm already seeing some prices dropping a bit.

I am fully optimistic that our medical and research community will have this virus fully under control by the fall. Why everyone worries so much about the value of their watches is beyond my pay grade to figure out. Maybe it is just a Rolex Forum phenomenon - whether talking new watches or vintage.

[GGGMT]

Originally Posted by springer

I am fully optimistic that our medical and research community will have this virus fully under control by the fall. Why everyone worries so much about the value of their watches is beyond my pay grade to figure out. Maybe it is just a Rolex Forum phenomenon - whether talking new watches or vintage.

Hoping you’re right bro on fall timing.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[fusionstorm]

Originally Posted by cardiel

Are you talking about 2008 or 1929, I cant tell............either way there is a possibility of an economic down turn the like of which none of us, nor our grandparents, have ever seen before..........so be ready to buckle up. I don't do predictions - hence the use of the word 'possibility'........but we cannot continue these conversations as if a massive economic disruption won't affect us. It will.........its just the extent or severity that is unknown.

2008’s downturn has been termed the Great Recession.

1929’s downturn was the Great Depression.

We haven’t yet seen back to back downturns that have been this historic in nature. We’ll see if this next one approaches the depths of the Great Recession........

[Dan S]

Originally Posted by springer

I am fully optimistic that our medical and research community will have this virus fully under control by the fall. Why everyone worries so much about the value of their watches is beyond my pay grade to figure out. Maybe it is just a Rolex Forum phenomenon - whether talking new watches or vintage.

As a member of the research community, I'm not so optimistic. We will have good testing in place, and probably treatments, but a vaccine is much further off I'm afraid. And IMO the virus will not be under control until we have a vaccine.

As I mentioned in my post, watch prices are the least of my concerns, so it's odd to quote my post and then say "Why everyone worries so much about the value of their watches ..." Sorry if I'm being sensitive, but I don't like being characterized that way, because it's not true in my case. I'm not concerned about the value of my watches, but I am legitimately concerned about other things, like whether my 86 year old mother will survive living in a COVID-19 hot-spot and if I'll be able to pay the people who work for me.

[carl5]

Originally Posted by Paulie 50

Agreed.

are you even being serious now..
well we watch and how the market value goes.

[springer]

Originally Posted by Dan S

As a member of the research community, I'm not so optimistic. We will have good testing in place, and probably treatments, but a vaccine is much further off I'm afraid. And IMO the virus will not be under control until we have a vaccine.

As I mentioned in my post, watch prices are the least of my concerns, so it's odd to quote my post and then say "Why everyone worries so much about the value of their watches ..." Sorry if I'm being sensitive, but I don't like being characterized that way, because it's not true in my case. I'm not concerned about the value of my watches, but I am legitimately concerned about other things, like whether my 86 year old mother will survive living in a COVID-19 hot-spot and if I'll be able to pay the people who work for me.

You did state, "If I were a dealer with a large inventory, I would definitely be thinking about getting some of them sold to reduce my exposure, and in fact I'm already seeing some prices dropping a bit" This thread is about vintage pricing and lowered prices being seen in the market.

This seems to me you were giving advice concerning market corrections which normally means downward trends and watch valuations. Sorry you're offended about my watch comments if they were misconstrued - I did write "everyone" in that one sentence and not "you." Maybe next time I should be more specific and write "a select few" instead of everyone.

[Paulie 50]

Originally Posted by jedly1

For large sections of the world , and probably soon very much more , it’s impossible to trade full stop ... borders are closed , travel
Is barred , flights are cancelled ... couriers have been released to leave parcels without signing so insurance is invalidated ..... other than a local f2f sales are pretty much impossible .... big on hold button had been Pushed and is time to worry about Much more important things ....both here and uk have been warned that in the real world we need to expect these restrictions to last most likely for 6 months ..

Spot on Jed,we also have to remember that now the watches pale into insignificance when you look around at the devastation and heartbreak this virus is causing. Stay safe. The same goes for every one of you out there reading this.

[swish77]

Bumping this still-relevant thread .... Some very strong results at the recent Phillips Geneva auction for vintage Daytonas, including close to $190K for this full set from about 1986. (Watch was advertised by the auction house as close to NOS, which is an exaggeration, including the service crystal, but very nice set nonetheless):

https://www.phillips.com/detail/role...3&searchPage=1

A lot of talk about the vintage Rolex bubble over the last year, especially since the pandemic, and of a softening market for vintage Daytonas. Maybe it'll come at one point, but I don't see it. Seems as if strong examples of all vintage sports Rolexes are virtually bulletproof.

[Dan S]

Originally Posted by swish77

Bumping this still-relevant thread .... Some very strong results at the recent Phillips Geneva auction for vintage Daytonas, including close to $190K for this full set from about 1986. (Watch was advertised by the auction house as close to NOS, which is an exaggeration, including the service crystal, but very nice set nonetheless):

https://www.phillips.com/detail/role...3&searchPage=1

A lot of talk about the vintage Rolex bubble over the last year, especially since the pandemic, and of a softening market for vintage Daytonas. Maybe it'll come at one point, but I don't see it. Seems as if strong examples of all vintage sports Rolexes are virtually bulletproof.

Just from my personal perspective, I feel that prices for common vintage references in average condition (e.g. matte dial 5513s) have flattened a bit, but clearly prices are not dropping overall. The price of less common variants and excellent examples are still on an upward trajectory.

[roh123]

NOS commands big premiums.

Money is still cheap. Very strong prices overall. Something that wont change as long as states print money to save the economy.



It’s auctions and it’s Phillips. Prices are strong. Not really too much to read into. This one sold 2.5 years ago.

https://www.phillips.com/detail/rolex/CH080318/22/

[swish77]

Originally Posted by roh123

NOS commands big premiums.

Money is still cheap. Very strong prices overall. Something that wont change as long as states print money to save the economy.



It’s auctions and it’s Phillips. Prices are strong. Not really too much to read into. This one sold 2.5 years ago.

https://www.phillips.com/detail/rolex/CH080318/22/

Yes, agreed, but that 6263 was not NOS. A super nice example, yes, but clearly not NOS.

[roh123]

Originally Posted by swish77

Yes, agreed, but that 6263 was not NOS. A super nice example, yes, but clearly not NOS.

Both this and the one from Ultimatum sold as NOS and both got NOS like prices. Each to their own on what to call it.

Edit: Phillips called it virtually New old stock. So close but no cigarr. You still see the huge premium.

[swish77]

Originally Posted by roh123

Both this and the one from Ultimatum sold as NOS and both got NOS like prices. Each to their own on what to call it.

Edit: Phillips called it virtually New old stock. So close but no cigarr. You still see the huge premium.

I've never seen an NOS watch with a service crystal, which is on that 6263. Case back sticker looks wrong too.

These auction houses are so prone to exaggeration, just like the dealers on this forum who get severely criticized for saying a mediocre case is "excellent" or a dial is "tropical" instead of damaged. Auction houses are no better, and are often worse.

[roh123]

Originally Posted by swish77

I've never seen an NOS watch with a service crystal, which is on that 6263. Case back sticker looks wrong too.

These auction houses are so prone to exaggeration, just like the dealers on this forum who get severely criticized for saying a mediocre case is "excellent" or a dial is "tropical" instead of damaged. Auction houses are no better, and are often worse.

Could be a Phillips thing or same seller wanting things tight. The black one sold 2018 also published in Puccis book had a new service crystal.

Regardless very sharp and NOS like watches. Not a coincidence they hammer so strong.

[indianmachine]

Originally Posted by Dan S

Just from my personal perspective, I feel that prices for common vintage references in average condition (e.g. matte dial 5513s) have flattened a bit, but clearly prices are not dropping overall. The price of less common variants and excellent examples are still on an upward trajectory.

+1 and it also seems like the best condition examples are selling right off the bat but the more average ones staying in dealers' inventory for longer

[Richard Carver]

There are some problems ahead and throw in the variable of electing self proclaimed socialists to the top two offices certainly bears consideration. We already owe more money than has ever existed and while there is a solution for Covid coming there are still tens of thousands of new infections right now..

I think having hard, portable assets is not a bad place to be because were in a situation we've never been in before and not one of us has any clue which world crushing reality will hit the fan first. Parlous times indeed.

[Dan S]

This thread is obviously walking a razor's edge since the vintage Rolex market may be coupled to the economy, and the economy is connected to politics. Throw in the fact that emotions are running high right now, and it's hard to resist talking about politics ... I get it.

However, if we are trying to maintain a collegial community, I think we should all try to be really disciplined about avoiding references to politics, since any political comment is likely to offend half of the readers, and possibly open wounds that will be difficult to heal. Just my opinion.

[roh123]

Originally Posted by Dan S

This thread is obviously walking a razor's edge since the vintage Rolex market may be coupled to the economy, and the economy is connected to politics. Throw in the fact that emotions are running high right now, and it's hard to resist talking about politics ... I get it.

However, if we are trying to maintain a collegial community, I think we should all try to be really disciplined about avoiding references to politics, since any political comment is likely to offend half of the readers, and possibly open wounds that will be difficult to heal. Just my opinion.

The community is hopefully much bigger than the US only.

Regardless of politics this cricis will mean assistance packages in many countries. And more money into the system will likely mean that the rich gets richer and money losing nominal value. Then other kind of assets, such as collectibles, raise in value. Like it or not.

When people park money into watches it is probably more likely to be high-end stuff rather than low level quality. So my guess is what I believed before. Crazy expensive stuff keeps going up and average stuff becomes a tougher sell. A bit like you mentioned in your earlier post.

[Dan S]

Originally Posted by roh123

The community is hopefully much bigger than the US only.

Point taken.

[swish77]

Originally Posted by Dan S

However, if we are trying to maintain a collegial community, I think we should all try to be really disciplined about avoiding references to politics, since any political comment is likely to offend half of the readers, and possibly open wounds that will be difficult to heal. Just my opinion.

x2. Thanks for posting this. I was about to be less diplomatic about the previous inaccurate and politically motivated comment.

[zapokee]

I guess people are just hunkering down with what they have.

[DoDe]

Originally Posted by Richard Carver

There are some problems ahead and throw in the variable of electing self proclaimed socialists to the top two offices certainly bears consideration. We already owe more money than has ever existed and while there is a solution for Covid coming there are still tens of thousands of new infections right now..

I think having hard, portable assets is not a bad place to be because were in a situation we've never been in before and not one of us has any clue which world crushing reality will hit the fan first. Parlous times indeed.

Please, do not go there. Your post includes, and I will be very polite, questionable arguments. Not at least from a «form rules» point of wiew. Behave man!