Talking Stocks 2.0

[bimmer nerd]

Originally Posted by jpeezy14@hotmail.com

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/01/11/jeff...y-the-fed.html

Gundlach, who's been calling for a bear market for awhile, continues the speech with high valuations.

Are valuations high? Sure - but that doesn't mean we're in imminent bubble-pop territory. I've said it again and again, but with fiscal and monetary policy buttressing the market, along with the influx of cash on the sidelines being ready to put to work, there shouldn't be any reason to not be in the market, or worse short it.

I anticipate earnings to be solid for most of my tech stocks, which should help with the valuations - but the best companies will never be considered "cheap". When have companies like AMZN or GOOGL ever been in the inexpensive category? AMZN at $1000/2000/3000? Always considered "expensive", and continues to go up. In my opinion, high valuations are warranted for those companies with amazing growth stories. Know what you own and why.

Originally Posted by NYG1121

Agree with above poster but the bottom line is P/E, irrespective of the actual stock price. I am not worried about the AMZNs, AAPLs, GOOGLs of the world. Even if they correct, they will be fine. I am worried about the newest hottest IPO that runs up so fast and everyone is under the assumption that they will only go up from there without having any idea of what a fair price may be. That is bubble territory and I do think we see a much harsher correction there. Just my 2 cents.

Agree with you both. While valuations are "high" great companies will always continue to grow and innovate. Even if there is a correction, they will recover long term.

[BNA/LION]

Originally Posted by m j b

I can't find any news, but it's been a steady riser the past few days.

@BNA/Lion reccy'd this one last year, and I've got a bunch of it.

Hey Micheal! I just saw this as I've been MIA for a few months.

The New Drug Application for HTX-011 for Postoperative Pain Management is Under Review in the US with a PDUFA Date May 12, 2021. (The FDA Will Be Making a Decision on or Before This Date.)

The 3rd time could be a charm! Finger Crossed as I find it hard to believe they could have another CRL!

[jaisonline]

Big Disney cost cutting news :

1) Starting in 2022, Disney (DIS) will no longer offer the "Magical Express" -- a free shuttle bus that brought guests staying at Walt Disney World hotels to and from Orlando International Airport. Disney did not operate the "Magical Express" service; it was subcontracted to Mears Transportation, an Orlando-based company. As a result, Testa said the move was "absolutely a cost-cutting measure."

2) Separately, Disney confirmed that another popular perk that was suspended amid the pandemic will not return. Called "Extra Magic Hours," this feature allowed guests who stay at Disney hotels to enter theme parks earlier than other visitors or stay in them later in the evening, sometimes adding an hour or more to their park stay.

Update :

Mears Transportation, which operates Magical Express, sent the following statement regarding Monday's announcement.

"Walt Disney made us aware of their decision," Mears spokesperson Roger Chapin said. "While we are disappointed Disney will no longer offer this service, we intend to continue offering transportation services between the airport and all area theme parks and hotels to meet the demand of our visitors now and in the future."

In November Brightline revealed plans to build a station at Disney Springs for its near-high-speed rail service. The company is currently building a route that will connect Orlando International Airport and South Florida.

Disney's Magical Express service launched 15 years ago as a benefit for visitors staying at Disney World resort hotels.

[vipereaper30]

Originally Posted by jaisonline

2) Separately, Disney confirmed that another popular perk that was suspended amid the pandemic will not return. Called "Extra Magic Hours," this feature allowed guests who stay at Disney hotels to enter theme parks earlier than other visitors or stay in them later in the evening, sometimes adding an hour or more to their park stay.

Well, so much for staying in a Disney hotel at insane rates now

[RyanO]

Anyone think today’s moves in Facebook and Twitter were a bit overdone?


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[JParm]

Originally Posted by RyanO

Anyone think today’s moves in Facebook and Twitter were a bit overdone?


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I'm not a shareholder of Twitter because as I've said in the past, I think they do a terrible job of monetizing their user base. You'd think by now they'd figure it out, a la PINS, SNAP, etc...

As for FB - I do own shares but I've been on the fence about it of late. Not concerned with the potential for breakup and things like that; more so the negativity recently around the platform. I don't envision myself completely selling out, though I could see a reduction in the number of shares that I own. Will have to wait and see what Q4 earnings looks like before I make any big moves.

[RyanO]

Originally Posted by jpeezy14@hotmail.com

I'm not a shareholder of Twitter because as I've said in the past, I think they do a terrible job of monetizing their user base. You'd think by now they'd figure it out, a la PINS, SNAP, etc...

As for FB - I do own shares but I've been on the fence about it of late. Not concerned with the potential for breakup and things like that; more so the negativity recently around the platform. I don't envision myself completely selling out, though I could see a reduction in the number of shares that I own. Will have to wait and see what Q4 earnings looks like before I make any big moves.

I’m in the same boat. Have a long position in FB but all of the negativity is taking its toll. Today was a pretty sizable drop for a mega cap tech stock.

I think earning will be solid, but will it be enough to bolster sentiment is the question.


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[asloper6001]

Originally Posted by RyanO

I’m in the same boat. Have a long position in FB but all of the negativity is taking its toll. Today was a pretty sizable drop for a mega cap tech stock.

I think earning will be solid, but will it be enough to bolster sentiment is the question.


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Zuckerburg has had a lot of the politics bought and paid for, but it seems a good majority are turning on him. When they all turn at once it could get ugly. I hold no position and think this noise could easily go away, but I think the capital is uber pissed and that's scary. Someone will be the sacrificed lamb.

Come over to PLTR we need you! haha Jeffries upgraded us to 30PT today with a BUY!

Cheers!!

[RyanO]

Originally Posted by asloper6001

Zuckerburg has had a lot of the politics bought and paid for, but it seems a good majority are turning on him. When they all turn at once it could get ugly. I hold no position and think this noise could easily go away, but I think the capital is uber pissed and that's scary. Someone will be the sacrificed lamb.

Come over to PLTR we need you! haha Jeffries upgraded us to 30PT today with a BUY!

Cheers!!

Need to do my DD on PLTR.


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[beshannon]

Futures flat, I am looking for names to trim as the internals have moved to neutral

[logo]

Originally Posted by asloper6001

Zuckerburg has had a lot of the politics bought and paid for, but it seems a good majority are turning on him. When they all turn at once it could get ugly. I hold no position and think this noise could easily go away, but I think the capital is uber pissed and that's scary. Someone will be the sacrificed lamb.

Come over to PLTR we need you! haha Jeffries upgraded us to 30PT today with a BUY!

Cheers!!

That PLTR upgrade yesterday is a bit sketchy to me, timing wise. Upgrade and pump it just a week or two before we get to see their first ever earnings report and just before the big investor day that everyone has been waiting for (that for a lot of people will help decide if their product is anything special or not)? Nope, not for me, but I wish Jeffries all the best in unloading their shares that they bought at the peak lol.

[jaisonline]

Originally Posted by RyanO

Need to do my DD on PLTR.


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I’ve been long on PLTR since the Direct Listing.
- Just be aware of the 3/18 (3 days after 1Q earnings) share unlocking. 80% of remaining shares are eligible if I read the S1 correctly. The current total shares outstanding is just under 1.9B.
- 20% were unlocked for the 9/30 DL (companies usually only unlock 10% of shares when going public). Some think the extra 10% issues will help with the initial huge unlocking or at least make it interesting as not as many people will immediately sell.

Can someone else take a look to verify the info I typed?

[JParm]

Portfolio update as we continue into this new year -

11 stocks long, in order of weight: SE, GOOGL, PINS, MELI, AMZN, FB, SQ, TSLA, TTD, MGNI, U.

Holding calls through earnings, with a few being LEAPS (I hope...my mindset could change): FSLY, MGNI, SE, TTD, PINS, U

I was one of FSLY's biggest bulls until the last 2 earnings calls; just didn't leave a good enough taste in my mouth to stay long, but have some exposure because of the calls. You can probably tell where my highest conviction lies based on these calls.

Not really looking to add any additional positions, as I've continued to add to the current 11 now.

[m j b]

Originally Posted by jpeezy14@hotmail.com

I'm not a shareholder of Twitter because as I've said in the past, I think they do a terrible job of monetizing their user base.

I read a great article about that in (I think) Bloomberg a few years ago. Sad (for the stockholders) that Twit hasn't done a good job of that. Yet.

Me, I was looking at Signal yesterday, which is a penny stock that went through the roof d/t a mistaken tweet by Elon Musk. I tried to short it but couldn't. Down big time today. Missed opportunity. SIGL, look at the chart. Went from 6 to 41 to 36, now 15.

Suckers go after these things. Suckers, lemmings and momentum players.

[Xelorpepsi]

What is the driving the market up today (e.g. UBER: +4%, ETSY: +13%, FVRR: +7%, DOCU: +6%, etc)? I can't find any news explaining this massive surge and although it's great from a portfolio perspective, it's genuinely worrying to see the stock market turn into a massive casino.

As a side note, which platform(s) do you recommend to get access to high quality financial news? I used to have access to a Bloomberg terminal and Facset, so curious to know what you use for detailed analysis.

Thank you

[JWD531]

Originally Posted by m j b

I read a great article about that in (I think) Bloomberg a few years ago. Sad (for the stockholders) that Twit hasn't done a good job of that. Yet.

Me, I was looking at Signal yesterday, which is a penny stock that went through the roof d/t a mistaken tweet by Elon Musk. I tried to short it but couldn't. Down big time today. Missed opportunity. SIGL, look at the chart. Went from 6 to 41 to 36, now 15.

Suckers go after these things. Suckers, lemmings and momentum players.

Ya I was trying to get in to short that as well, but was unable. Similar to ZM/ZOOM. All it takes is 10 seconds to google...

I am holding my energy stocks this year but will look to sell early next year. We are already seeing some money move into energy and financials as expected. I held last year (mostly due to minimize tax impact). I’m hoping that pays off.

The energy sector still needs to reinvent itself a bit and add focus on more renewables (like I have said before - some are doing this better than others) and be more innovative to break out of the long term down trend, but I still believe it bounces this year after bottoming last year.

Long term, I still am bullish on tech and will likely transfer any energy profits into that area. I agree that it seems additionally healthcare, biotech, and some other industries seem to be where the action will be for a while, but I know very little about the healthcare/biotech side of things, so I doubt I get into that anytime soon.


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[m j b]

Originally Posted by Xelorpepsi

What is the driving the market up today?

Here in the uSa people are starting to receive their second stimulus check ($600) and it is widely reported that a lot of novice investors are using these checks to speculate in the stock market. Which would explain jumping on the bandwagon of popular stocks rather than doing objective, value research as many of us "old timers" do.

But I am only guessing.

[Xelorpepsi]

Originally Posted by m j b

Here in the uSa people are starting to receive their second stimulus check ($600) and it is widely reported that a lot of novice investors are using these checks to speculate in the stock market. Which would explain jumping on the bandwagon of popular stocks rather than doing objective, value research as many of us "old timers" do.

But I am only guessing.

Hadn't realised the second wave stimulus checks was on its way - so more money from RobinHood investors to be expected in "their" market darlings. Thank you for that.

[7sins]

Originally Posted by jaisonline

I’ve been long on PLTR since the Direct Listing.
- Just be aware of the 3/18 (3 days after 1Q earnings) share unlocking. 80% of remaining shares are eligible if I read the S1 correctly. The current total shares outstanding is just under 1.9B.
- 20% were unlocked for the 9/30 DL (companies usually only unlock 10% of shares when going public). Some think the extra 10% issues will help with the initial huge unlocking or at least make it interesting as not as many people will immediately sell.

Can someone else take a look to verify the info I typed?

In regards to the lockup period expiring, I don't think it will be significant. Karl and Thiel owns 10+30=40% of the company. Another 12% is owned by founders fund which is thiel’s VC and it looks like it was a cross fund investment. The earlier funds will likely need to liquidate. 20% is owned by sompo a strategic Japanese insurance company which is creating a JV in Japan.

Out of the cap table about 20% is held by VCs which need to liquidate due to fund life terms. The 60% that is owned by Thiel, Karl and Sompo is not going to be sold. Employee option is peanuts. 20% is the float that is traded already. That leaves about 10% by the VCs. It’s closer to 250 million shares or about 4 days trading volume, which is no big deal. Remember just because the shares unlock does not mean that those shares will be sold and the general sentiment is that PLTR will continue to grow now that they are entering the commercial market with an actual sales team. It isn't a similar situation to $snow where you had very low volume and very low float while their p/s is 4x higher than PLTR. You might see a small dip but that would be a buying opportunity.

Originally Posted by Xelorpepsi

What is the driving the market up today (e.g. UBER: +4%, ETSY: +13%, FVRR: +7%, DOCU: +6%, etc)? I can't find any news explaining this massive surge and although it's great from a portfolio perspective, it's genuinely worrying to see the stock market turn into a massive casino.

As a side note, which platform(s) do you recommend to get access to high quality financial news? I used to have access to a Bloomberg terminal and Facset, so curious to know what you use for detailed analysis.

Thank you

Checkout Benzinga Pro, there are over 20 different mailing subscription lists you can subscribe to ranging from upgrades/downgrades, large option trades, insider buys/sells etc etc. They also have a daily email that is sent in the morning for a market outlook, I also really like Bloomberg's 5 things to start your day daily email.

[jaisonline]

Originally Posted by 7sins

In regards to the lockup period expiring, I don't think it will be significant. Karl and Thiel owns 10+30=40% of the company. Another 12% is owned by founders fund which is thiel’s VC and it looks like it was a cross fund investment. The earlier funds will likely need to liquidate. 20% is owned by sompo a strategic Japanese insurance company which is creating a JV in Japan.

Out of the cap table about 20% is held by VCs which need to liquidate due to fund life terms. The 60% that is owned by Thiel, Karl and Sompo is not going to be sold. Employee option is peanuts. 20% is the float that is traded already. That leaves about 10% by the VCs. It’s closer to 250 million shares or about 4 days trading volume, which is no big deal. Remember just because the shares unlock does not mean that those shares will be sold and the general sentiment is that PLTR will continue to grow now that they are entering the commercial market with an actual sales team. It isn't a similar situation to $snow where you had very low volume and very low float while their p/s is 4x higher than PLTR. You might see a small dip but that would be a buying opportunity.



Checkout Benzinga Pro, there are over 20 different mailing subscription lists you can subscribe to ranging from upgrades/downgrades, large option trades, insider buys/sells etc etc. They also have a daily email that is sent in the morning for a market outlook, I also really like Bloomberg's 5 things to start your day daily email.

Thanks 7sins.

[Xelorpepsi]

Thanks a lot @7sins! Will check Benzinga Pro.

[JParm]

Added March FB calls. I think the selling is overdone and earnings should beat.

[piratepress]

Originally Posted by jaisonline

Separately, Disney confirmed that another popular perk that was suspended amid the pandemic will not return. Called "Extra Magic Hours," this feature allowed guests who stay at Disney hotels to enter theme parks earlier than other visitors or stay in them later in the evening, sometimes adding an hour or more to their park stay.

Just to clarify, Disney has removed the "Extra Magic Hours" but replaced it with 30-minute early entry to any theme park, every day for hotel guests. Granted, it's a small concession, but better than nothing.

[chsu74]

CCIV

Tesla and NIO competitor.

https://www.reddit.com/r/SPACs/comme...tm_name=iossmf

[7sins]

Originally Posted by Xelorpepsi

Thanks a lot @7sins! Will check Benzinga Pro.

You are welcome! Believe they have a two week free trial to give it a test run. I have the emails sent to my work email, if you decide to try it out, within outlook setup a rule that all emails from them go to a dedicated folder. Otherwise you will clutter your inbox, I get 2-300 emails from them each day with updates (most of which are one or two sentences which isn't overwhelming).

[logo]

Huge few days for GEVO and CRSR. These two have been chugging along nicely, still expecting GEVO to have a ton of room to move higher. CRSR I need to evaluate timing regarding their lockup expiration in Feb.

[Eyenigma]

$UBER $UPS $FDX

Get in now. Or regret it later.
As autonomous vehicles become a thing, UBER, UPS, FedEx *and Lyft too will eliminate their single biggest expense. Labor. I'm not arguing this is good or bad for the wellbeing of society and I know automation is a scary concept. But — we don't invent the rainy day. We're simply discussing what is the best umbrella. You may as well profit in your own obsolescence.

Look at the move of UBER just today: +7% on news of GM

[77T]

Originally Posted by Eyenigma

$UBER $UPS $FDX

Get in now. Or regret it later.
As autonomous vehicles become a thing, UBER, UPS, FedEx *and Lyft too will eliminate their single biggest expense. Labor. I'm not arguing this is good or bad for the wellbeing of society and I know automation is a scary concept. But — we don't invent the rainy day. We're simply discussing what is the best umbrella. You may as well profit in your own obsolescence.

Look at the move of UBER just today: +7% on news of GM

I get your enthusiasm...

But what is your time horizon when you say “as autonomous vehicles become a thing”?



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[Eyenigma]

Originally Posted by 77T

But what is your time horizon when you say “as autonomous vehicles become a thing”?

I can't say I'm any sort of expert. But look at the news cycle even today. Look at $GM - https://newatlas.com/automotive/gms-...ts-brightdrop/

Will it be next year? Next decade? Not really sure. But it's coming. And it's going to be more than just $TSLA that have a seat at the table.

I trade options mostly, so the way I would play it would be to buy long dated leap calls, and sell the short term calls against it *to recoup the outlay. If I were going to get long on the common, I would probably pick UBER to start. You have the near term catalyst of tourism opening back up once the inoculation takes hold from COVID.

I would not be shocked to see UBER trading at or near $70 by year end. At the very least, just on potential for future earnings.

[huncho]

apple has a "big" announcement tomorrow morning. can't wait to be disappointed lol