Talking Stocks 2.0

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Originally Posted by Hard_Six

Anyone buying NET on this pullback? Cloudfare has been a wonderful position for me over the last several months. I trimmed back on this stock in the mid 80's but this pullback today is tempting me.

Yes I think 70s are a good adding point. Microsoft’s cloud revenue was way up, which bodes well for cloudflare. I have some May NET calls that I’m slightly red on, but confident enough in them that I’m just going to leave them be for now unless we dip lower.

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Originally Posted by RyanO

Yes, all a bit much. He's just fanning the flames and frankly should know better. I wouldn't touch GME with a ten foot pole at this point, but congrats to those who have made out like bandits.

Yeah I wish he didn’t tweet that. Also very much wish Chamath didn’t openly disclose he’s buying several 100K in GME calls via Twitter. Adding to the fire, and frankly just poor form from two extremely wealthy individuals who are looked up to as leaders. Man I hate Twitter haha.

That said, there are still a huge number of shares short for GME. Looking at the numbers, I can easily see this going much, much higher still. Valuation is out the window - I think everyone knows GME can’t support the valuation and that’s not even the question. The short and gamma squeeze is real. The only variable in all of this that is in flux is when do people decide they’ve had enough - at some point the rug pulls so fast that there will be no escape if you’re caught in it. I can’t bring myself to put money on it, but it sure is tempting.

[RyanO]

7sins, curious if you think AUPH is a buy at this price after todays slight pullback?

Any thoughts on what you might target for entry and exit?

Appreciate your inputs.

[jltait]

I’m feeling like a doofus selling a portion of GME before both the Palihapitiya and Musk tweets. Can’t win em all I guess. A gain is a gain. What could have been is dust in the wind.

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Originally Posted by jltait

I’m feeling like a doofus selling a portion of GME before both the Palihapitiya and Musk tweets. Can’t win em all I guess. A gain is a gain. What could have been is dust in the wind.

Well, not really viable to depend on the ramblings of a billionaire to swing a stock. They could have just as easily tweeted something negative and the stock move the other way. Profit is profit my friend

[supernova]

AMD posts monster quarter and strong forecast yet down AH. Just can’t satisfy investors these days. Or else everyone is just flocking to GME... what is that madness?


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[AshCashEmAll]

Originally Posted by jltait

I’m feeling like a doofus selling a portion of GME before both the Palihapitiya and Musk tweets. Can’t win em all I guess. A gain is a gain. What could have been is dust in the wind.

IMG_1866.jpgYou feel like a doofus then I don’t know what I feel like. I’ve been calling myself all sort of names today.


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[RyanO]

Originally Posted by supernova

AMD posts monster quarter and strong forecast yet down AH. Just can’t satisfy investors these days. Or else everyone is just flocking to GME... what is that madness?


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I think a lot of money is flowing into whats moving the most, and right now that's GME and other highly speculative positions. Have to say it gives me pause about the state of the market.

[vipereaper30]

Originally Posted by RyanO

7sins, curious if you think AUPH is a buy at this price after todays slight pullback?



Any thoughts on what you might target for entry and exit?



Appreciate your inputs.

Go look at Biocryst's (BCRX) approval last month and you'll see the same trading action, prior to a following 30% return to where it stands today. This should be in the mid 20s now on approval and if sales go well you'll see even greater returns.

I added at 18 so find value even higher and fortunately LUMN exploded my portfolio today and more than offset the temporary (fingers crossed) drop here.

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I've been contemplating a few strategies for capital preservation, and I'm curious to hear what members here think, and if there's a strategy in particular they tend to use for certain scenarios. I'm not an expert in options by any means, so feedback is certainly welcome. For the sake of discussion, I'm going to use 100 shares of AMD (roughly) as an example:

Let's say you have 100 shares of a stock that you bought at $50 = $5,000 investment. Now let's say that stock goes up to about $100. You've made 100% for a total position size of $10,000. Your goal now is to lock in profits and limit downside while also still maximizing profit potential. Let's assume the stock does not have any dividend, and that dividends are not your focus. A few choices I've pondered:

A) You could just sell half your position and let the profits ride. Works perfectly well, but now you have half as many shares to grow if you believe the stock could still move further upwards. It is safe in the sense that if the stock dips, those shares are basically free that you can hold indefinitely.

B) You could set a stop loss. Protects downside, but also ties up capital in the meantime.

C) What if you sell the entirety of the position, and instead use those 5K in profits to buy an ITM 2022 LEAP at say a $70 strike for ~$33 (=$3,300/contract = 100 shares equivalent). Here you've protected your initial 5K capital and taken 1.7K profit off the table which can be used for other things, and put the extra 3.3K profit back to work with the same number of effective shares (1 contract = 100 shares). Moreover, you have some intrinsic value in your call so that if the stock doesn't increase or goes down a bit, you still have value from your original profit in the call contract. Less conservative than shares, but probably the most conservative option strategy if you plan to leave the calls alone.

D) Along those same lines, you could reduce your cost of exposure by buying an ATM LEAP ($2200/contract). Less protection against downside, but also lower entry cost. Or, potentially increase your effective position size via two near OTM calls say at $110 strike (=$1500/contract x2 = $3,000 for effectively 200 shares). More risky, but I guess these also depend on your conviction for a particular stock.



Thoughts, criticisms, opinions, experiences all welcome :)

[7sins]

Originally Posted by RyanO

7sins, curious if you think AUPH is a buy at this price after todays slight pullback?

Any thoughts on what you might target for entry and exit?

Appreciate your inputs.

I believe we are seeing profit taking from those who played into the FDA approval for AUPH and are re-allocating elsewhere. Combined with an uptick in short positions (maybe to shakeout retail investors to purchase cheaper shares for institutions). From what I have read, they are projecting 700m-$1B in annual sales, market cap is less than $2.25B and they have over $400M in cash. They already have a sales force should they choose to commercialize Voclosporin themselves, if that is the case stock should hit mid-to high 20s over the next few months. My bet is still on a buyout given all the commentary from the CEO, that should put it in the 30s which would be a fairly low multiple for a big pharma purchase. I trimmed shorter calls yesterday to re-allocate elsewhere, then rolled the remaining calls to 2022 leaps. Might trade sideways or down in the near term, should be a blockbuster in the next few months, I suspect patience will pay off here.

[RyanO]

Originally Posted by vipereaper30

Go look at Biocryst's (BCRX) approval last month and you'll see the same trading action, prior to a following 30% return to where it stands today. This should be in the mid 20s now on approval and if sales go well you'll see even greater returns.

I added at 18 so find value even higher and fortunately LUMN exploded my portfolio today and more than offset the temporary (fingers crossed) drop here.

Appreciate your take.


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[RyanO]

Originally Posted by 7sins

I believe we are seeing profit taking from those who played into the FDA approval for AUPH and are re-allocating elsewhere. Combined with an uptick in short positions (maybe to shakeout retail investors to purchase cheaper shares for institutions). From what I have read, they are projecting 700m-$1B in annual sales, market cap is less than $2.25B and they have over $400M in cash. They already have a sales force should they choose to commercialize Voclosporin themselves, if that is the case stock should hit mid-to high 20s over the next few months. My bet is still on a buyout given all the commentary from the CEO, that should put it in the 30s which would be a fairly low multiple for a big pharma purchase. I trimmed shorter calls yesterday to re-allocate elsewhere, then rolled the remaining calls to 2022 leaps. Might trade sideways or down in the near term, should be a blockbuster in the next few months, I suspect patience will pay off here.

Thanks very much. Very helpful mate. I initiated a small position AH and look forward to seeing where we go from here.


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[AshCashEmAll]

Originally Posted by 7sins

I believe we are seeing profit taking from those who played into the FDA approval for AUPH and are re-allocating elsewhere. Combined with an uptick in short positions (maybe to shakeout retail investors to purchase cheaper shares for institutions). From what I have read, they are projecting 700m-$1B in annual sales, market cap is less than $2.25B and they have over $400M in cash. They already have a sales force should they choose to commercialize Voclosporin themselves, if that is the case stock should hit mid-to high 20s over the next few months. My bet is still on a buyout given all the commentary from the CEO, that should put it in the 30s which would be a fairly low multiple for a big pharma purchase. I trimmed shorter calls yesterday to re-allocate elsewhere, then rolled the remaining calls to 2022 leaps. Might trade sideways or down in the near term, should be a blockbuster in the next few months, I suspect patience will pay off here.

Any advice to some who has calls for feb 19 for 18$ strikes should I cut my losses and just get what I can tomorrow or wait it out?


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[enjoythemusic]

Keep buying and holding GME :)

[asloper6001]

Originally Posted by enjoythemusic

Keep buying and holding GME :)

AMC is the next darling up. These guys are going to save the movie theaters. Lots of short interest. The AH volume that just occurred was insane.

Its funny bc back door small float pump groups have always been around. But when you have this size volume coming from all over the SEC can't concentrate it to a certain group of people and follow the trade patterns. The market is changing in front of our eyes. People will think twice about illegal shorting or shorting in general.

[jltait]

Originally Posted by AshCashEmAll

Attachment 1199542You feel like a doofus then I don’t know what I feel like. I’ve been calling myself all sort of names today.


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There are more opportunities ahead! We may not have sold at the top, but still have our gains, and watches.

[jltait]

Originally Posted by asloper6001

The market is changing in front of our eyes. People will think twice about illegal shorting or shorting in general.

Methinks this is a good thing. They should buy puts or inverse etfs like the rest of us.

[huncho]

Originally Posted by asloper6001

AMC is the next darling up. These guys are going to save the movie theaters. Lots of short interest. The AH volume that just occurred was insane.

Its funny bc back door small float pump groups have always been around. But when you have this size volume coming from all over the SEC can't concentrate it to a certain group of people and follow the trade patterns. The market is changing in front of our eyes. People will think twice about illegal shorting or shorting in general.

they're on bed bath and beyond now because its the 3rd most shorted stock lol

[asloper6001]

Originally Posted by jltait

Methinks this is a good thing. They should buy puts or inverse etfs like the rest of us.

I agree 100%.

The market is getting exposed and needs multiple corrections.

[7sins]

Originally Posted by AshCashEmAll

Any advice to some who has calls for feb 19 for 18$ strikes should I cut my losses and just get what I can tomorrow or wait it out?


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Theta and time decay is going to crush the value of your option, if it were me I would roll them to a longer date. Timing options is very difficult, this trade will 100% work in the long run just need to give it more time. At the very least, if you try to time an option, always buy a protective short otm put as insurance. If you roll to a later date, you have the likelihood the stock continues to climb and your options gain in value to cover your short term loss and ultimately make money.

[AshCashEmAll]

Originally Posted by 7sins

Theta and time decay is going to crush the value of your option, if it were me I would roll them to a longer date. Timing options is very difficult, this trade will 100% work in the long run just need to give it more time. At the very least, if you try to time an option, always buy a protective short otm put as insurance. If you roll to a later date, you have the likelihood the stock continues to climb and your options gain in value to cover your short term loss and ultimately make money.

Appreciate the advice. I’ll close out and buy a longer call tomorrow.


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[enjoythemusic]

Originally Posted by huncho

they're on bed bath and beyond now because its the 3rd most shorted stock lol

AMC.

[Vishy26]

Originally Posted by enjoythemusic

Keep buying and holding GME :)

Good post Steven. I will open a small position and won’t cash out

[LA-RealEstateAgent]

I thought that was a joke until I looked up the ticker...

Originally Posted by huncho

they're on bed bath and beyond now because its the 3rd most shorted stock lol

[enjoythemusic]

Originally Posted by LA-RealEstateAgent

I thought that was a joke until I looked up the ticker...

Add AMC and BBBY as a buy. This is going to be fun.

[7sins]

Originally Posted by huncho

they're on bed bath and beyond now because its the 3rd most shorted stock lol

Good website I use for most shorted stocks is: https://highshortinterest.com/

Another one I really like to track daily short volume is https://shortvolume.com/. Look at the chart below on AUPH big short volume after fda approval, usually a sign large institutions drive the price down to drive weak retail hands to sell and for them institutions to purchase shares cheaper. Yet they kick and scream saying WSB are the manipulators, what a joke.

[huncho]

Originally Posted by 7sins

Good website I use for most shorted stocks is: https://highshortinterest.com/

Another one I really like to track daily short volume is https://shortvolume.com/. Look at the chart below on AUPH big short volume after fda approval, usually a sign large institutions drive the price down to drive weak retail hands to sell and for them to purchase shares cheaper. Yet they kick and scream saying WSB are the manipulators, what a joke.

thanks for these and yeah i agree, they're hypocrites and that's what makes this so much fun to watch

[Screwly]

Originally Posted by enjoythemusic

Add AMC and BBBY as a buy. This is going to be fun.

Bought amc and in for the ride

[AshCashEmAll]

Originally Posted by 7sins

Good website I use for most shorted stocks is: https://highshortinterest.com/

Another one I really like to track daily short volume is https://shortvolume.com/. Look at the chart below on AUPH big short volume after fda approval, usually a sign large institutions drive the price down to drive weak retail hands to sell and for them institutions to purchase shares cheaper. Yet they kick and scream saying WSB are the manipulators, what a joke.

Same thing going on here?


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