Talking Stocks 2.0

[beshannon]

I do not like the technicals here, however I am adding small to several positions LLY and NVDA.

Stay focused on the bond market and yields

[7sins]

Hope some of you got in on my last post yesterday for SOXL, up 9% today, trimmed some gains to re-allocate.

Originally Posted by RyanO

Wondering if Brian and 7sins have any opinions on the rise in rates and whether the impact to some bellwether tech has been a bit overdone here, or if it’s just the beginning.

Appreciate any insights guys. Trying to keep a long term perspective in mind but this has been a gut wrenching three weeks for me, and many of us here for sure.


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No problem, happy to help. I am going to repost the below from a few pages back as I think it is imperative to understand global yields. Look at how many countries are negative 10yr yields or are close to zero. That creates foreign demand into US treasuries and keeps yields sustainable if not lower. Also remember the FED has committed to buying over $1T of treasuries this year to keep rates low and they also have tools like operation twist to keep rates suppressed. It is in their best interest to keep rates low to mitigate their debt service costs. I think treasuries are oversold here. Remember as rates rise, P/E ratios rise and notice the stocks that took the biggest hits this week, for the most part, were VERY expensive stocks which I think was a bit of profit taking too.

Originally Posted by 7sins

Lastly, A LOT of talk about 10yr rates, remember from my old posts the FED does not control this directly, it is driven by supply and demand - FED controls the ultra short part of the yield curve. The FED does NOT want rates to go higher. Why? The higher rates go, the more they will have to pay in debt servicing cost, it is in their best interest to suppress rates. Here is what no one else is talking about that they should be. Sovereign 10yr Developed Market Interest Rates are at incredibly low levels. Germany NEGATIVE 26bp, France negative 1bp, Greece which was and is on the verge of bankruptcy is 40bp LOWER than the US 10yr. If you are a foreign investor, would you prefer 150bp in a US treasury or Negative 26bp (currency hedging costs are low)? As rates rise here, foreign demand will rise and more money will come into the treasury market keeping a lid on here domestically. Also as rate rises, they become more attractive to other investors/pensions where 150bp is certainly more attractive than 50bp a few months back. The velocity of money here is important, and this is nothing like the taper tantrum in 2013 where the 10yr went from 1.5% to 3%.

Originally Posted by beshannon

I do not like the technicals here, however I am adding small to several positions LLY and NVDA.

Stay focused on the bond market and yields

Added to NVDA today as well, I think great buy under $500, bought Jan 2022 $520C - down over 35% from weekly high. I think this is a great entry point, some good upcoming catalysts with ARM acquisition to be one.

[RyanO]

I’m a bit ashamed to admit that I panic sold mid day today. As much as I like to try to maintain a long term perspective, the way some of my positions have dropped in the last few weeks had finally gotten to me badly enough and I reached a point beyond my risk tolerance. My fault for having too much exposure to growth and not being able to stick it out, But this correction felt difference and I mentally need a break from the markets.

I sincerely appreciate all of the inputs and commentary here. You guys have even a great group. Hope things turn around for you soon. They look to already have since I have sold, could be the greatest contrarian buy indicator out there.


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[JParm]

Originally Posted by RyanO

I’m a bit ashamed to admit that I panic sold mid day today. As much as I like to try to maintain a long term perspective, the way some of my positions have dropped in the last few weeks had finally gotten to me badly enough and I reached a point beyond my risk tolerance. My fault for having too much exposure to growth and not being able to stick it out, But this correction felt difference and I mentally need a break from the markets.

I sincerely appreciate all of the inputs and commentary here. You guys have even a great group. Hope things turn around for you soon. They look to already have since I have sold, could be the greatest contrarian buy indicator out there.


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No shame there, Ryan. Think we've all thought about doing the same in the past...

[gnuyork]

Originally Posted by RyanO

I’m a bit ashamed to admit that I panic sold mid day today. As much as I like to try to maintain a long term perspective, the way some of my positions have dropped in the last few weeks had finally gotten to me badly enough and I reached a point beyond my risk tolerance. My fault for having too much exposure to growth and not being able to stick it out, But this correction felt difference and I mentally need a break from the markets.

I sincerely appreciate all of the inputs and commentary here. You guys have even a great group. Hope things turn around for you soon. They look to already have since I have sold, could be the greatest contrarian buy indicator out there.


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I was almost with you, but I'm just mentally tired (due to other circumstances) and trying to forget about it in hopes it will turn around. I'm too far down to sell at this point that my only option is to just hold on and play the long game.

[MrGoat]

Originally Posted by gnuyork

I was almost with you, but I'm just mentally tired (due to other circumstances) and trying to forget about it in hopes it will turn around. I'm too far down to sell at this point that my only option is to just hold on and play the long game.

Me too. Don’t feel bad. I’m just hoping the market does what it does historically and hanging on for the ride. The money that’s there won’t be needed for 10-20 yrs or so or longer among 6 different accounts. Not sweating so bad personally but feel miserable for the guys that lost their shirts the last few weeks.


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[beshannon]

Originally Posted by 7sins

I am going to repost the below from a few pages back as I think it is imperative to understand global yields. Look at how many countries are negative 10yr yields or are close to zero. That creates foreign demand into US treasuries and keeps yields sustainable if not lower. Also remember the FED has committed to buying over $1T of treasuries this year to keep rates low and they also have tools like operation twist to keep rates suppressed. It is in their best interest to keep rates low to mitigate their debt service costs. I think treasuries are oversold here. Remember as rates rise, P/E ratios rise and notice the stocks that took the biggest hits this week, for the most part, were VERY expensive stocks which I think was a bit of profit taking too.

High P/E stocks and those that are vastly over priced are getting hurt the most. I agree, if you are not paying attention to the bond markets you are going to get hurt here

[chsu74]

Originally Posted by beshannon

High P/E stocks and those that are vastly over priced are getting hurt the most. I agree, if you are not paying attention to the bond markets you are going to get hurt here

This and I have never seen oil price double in 4 months. Inflation is firmly here. It is velocity which yield increases going forward that remains a key indicator for me.

[7sins]

For the less experienced investors and traders, I think it is important to look back at weeks like the last few and reflect what you have learned. Most importantly, how does this effect your behavior going forward. Like a lot of us, I learned most of my lessons the hard way but those lessons taught me to become a better trader and not make the same mistakes. A few of those lessons resulted in:

Always setting a stop loss and or raising stop loss as price rises
Trimming gains on the way up
Always buying leap puts on expensive stocks when market nears an all time high
Dollar cost average in over multiple days, not one day
Someone said it a few pages back but I also typically wait for two consecutive down days to start adding
etc etc

Those were very costly mistakes but made me a much more vigilant and effective trader. I empathize with everyones frustrations, this is just a part of the markets and my best advice is to take note of your mistakes and how you will evolve as an investor going forward. Do not let volatility scare you, while counter-intuitive, pull backs and consolidations are healthy for the market.

[scarlet knight]

I am out of ARK and most ARK like stocks. Still in some Faang and more established tech. But have rotated to banks, big oll and reopening plays. Out of pure stay at home, into re-opening names.

[hkuo]

Originally Posted by 7sins

For the less experienced investors and traders, I think it is important to look back at weeks like the last few and reflect what you have learned. Most importantly, how does this effect your behavior going forward. Like a lot of us, I learned most of my lessons the hard way but those lessons taught me to become a better trader and not make the same mistakes. A few of those lessons resulted in:

Always setting a stop loss and or raising stop loss as price rises
Trimming gains on the way up
Always buying leap puts on expensive stocks when market nears an all time high
Dollar cost average in over multiple days, not one day
Someone said it a few pages back but I also typically wait for two consecutive down days to start adding
etc etc

Those were very costly mistakes but made me a much more vigilant and effective trader. I empathize with everyones frustrations, this is just a part of the markets and my best advice is to take note of your mistakes and how you will evolve as an investor going forward. Do not let volatility scare you, while counter-intuitive, pull backs and consolidations are healthy for the market.

7sins and others... taking gains on the way up is something I definitely need to learn how to do. I’m usually selling on the way down when a good chunk of my gains are wiped out. Can you help let me know how you do it? Are you taking out a fraction once you hit x%? I’m not quite sure how much I should be taking out and at what % gain.

[Bmats7]

I have only 2 positions right now.

CLOV at 8.42 avg
GNOG at 15.32 avg

The rest is in cash.

Also made 94k on that RKT boost last week and moved it into CLOV.

Waiting for WMT to stabilize at 130 and will take a long position. Good luck this week everyone.

[EatMcdonalds]

Originally Posted by Bmats7

I have only 2 positions right now.

CLOV at 8.42 avg
GNOG at 15.32 avg

The rest is in cash.

Also made 94k on that RKT boost last week and moved it into CLOV.

Waiting for WMT to stabilize at 130 and will take a long position. Good luck this week everyone.

Be careful on clover.

A lot of smart people around the table but they haven’t shown a mastery around quality (low STAR scores) and performance (MLR miss last quarter was really really significant).

There are smart folks around the table and significant MA tailwinds, but in my opinion they’re one of the weaker MA upstarts.

[chadwick4eva]

Bond yields continue to rise and the tech slide continues. The real question here is where will treasuries bottom out. Given historical norms the long bond could easily slide another 20-30%. As long as the yields keep rising the tech slide could continue and I could see another 20-30% getting shaved off the nasdaq. At that point it would probably be fair to say we're at a level where there are some deals to be had. Takes some serious stomach to buy tech stocks at the moment, even though I think there are some out there that are looking pretty attractive now. I will be buying more AMD, NVDA, TSM likely in the next few weeks.

FB I have actively bought in the past few days- the company is reasonably priced and is clearly the global titan of social media and one of the two titans of internet advertising. They also have the most pristine balance sheet I think I've seen for a company of their size. $60B in cash with only $30B total liabilities. It's only a matter of time before they start doing serious share buybacks and/or paying dividends to shareholders. If Zuckerberg steps down (which I hope happens soon) I would guess the stock price pops significantly- I don't think he has too many fans out there and imo he is one of the reasons the shares are actually reasonably pried at the moment.

[AshCashEmAll]

The dip that keeps on dipping.


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[beshannon]

Originally Posted by AshCashEmAll

The dip that keeps on dipping.


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In one sector, yes, in others, no.

Right now V +7, JPM +2, HD +6, WM +3, MO +1.7, LIN +7 . . .

If you are tech heavy it is already too late unless you want losses to offset gains. You either hold or average down.

This rotation was signaled last November, it was rates that sped it up.

[logo]

I’d say that FDX price action the past two months is like watching paint dry, but it’s more like watching paint dry with your eyelids stapled open. Hopefully it’ll catch a bid leading into earnings.

[AshCashEmAll]

Originally Posted by logo

I’d say that FDX price action the past two months is like watching paint dry, but it’s more like watching paint dry with your eyelids stapled open. Hopefully it’ll catch a bid leading into earnings.

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[AshCashEmAll]

Originally Posted by beshannon

In one sector, yes, in others, no.

Right now V +7, JPM +2, HD +6, WM +3, MO +1.7, LIN +7 . . .

If you are tech heavy it is already too late unless you want losses to offset gains. You either hold or average down.

This rotation was signaled last November, it was rates that sped it up.

My holdings is PYPL, FDX, SQ, PINS, APPS, MGNI, NET. With calls in June and July for FDX, PINS, WMT, and QCOMM.

I am not experienced in options so I could really use some advice on how to manage my PINS $80c for June, QCOMM $135c for July, and lastly I bought a WMT$130c for June at the end of Friday. Do I sell now or if there is a pop at some point between now and then next earnings can I recoup my losses?


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[huncho]

Originally Posted by AshCashEmAll

My holdings is PYPL, FDX, SQ, PINS, APPS, MGNI, NET. With calls in June and July for FDX, PINS, WMT, and QCOMM.

I am not experienced in options so I could really use some advice on how to manage my PINS $80c for June, QCOMM $135c for July, and lastly I bought a WMT$130c for June at the end of Friday. Do I sell now or if there is a pop at some point between now and then next earnings can I recoup my losses?


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https://www.optionsprofitcalculator.com/

fill out your info here and take a look at how the profits/losses look according to your timeline and it should help a lot. no one can decide for you but these charts can make your decision easier (if the gains are not as aggressive as what you expect maybe it's worth to cut losses). for what its worth im pretty down on my leaps from last week and just gonna hold and see how the next month or 2 play out. for now i'm waiting to enter nvidia (had amd already but lost quite a bit from the last 2 weeks) and maybe new square leaps, but not unless stuff drops a significant amount more because i already got burned buying the dip last week

[jltait]

Sorry had to.

[bimmer nerd]

Originally Posted by AshCashEmAll

My holdings is PYPL, FDX, SQ, PINS, APPS, MGNI, NET. With calls in June and July for FDX, PINS, WMT, and QCOMM.

I am not experienced in options so I could really use some advice on how to manage my PINS $80c for June, QCOMM $135c for July, and lastly I bought a WMT$130c for June at the end of Friday. Do I sell now or if there is a pop at some point between now and then next earnings can I recoup my losses?


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You have enough time on your options where 1-2 green days can bring them back depending on the volume/price and of course depending on how much you got them for.

I'd recommend either averaging down and wait it out or roll them out further. Just my .02 cents.


I have calls in

TAK (1/21/22)
CLDR (1/21/22)
CRSR (1/21/22)
GEVO (1/21/22)
NET (8/20)
FDX (8/20)
LULU (9/17)

[7sins]

Originally Posted by hkuo

7sins and others... taking gains on the way up is something I definitely need to learn how to do. I’m usually selling on the way down when a good chunk of my gains are wiped out. Can you help let me know how you do it? Are you taking out a fraction once you hit x%? I’m not quite sure how much I should be taking out and at what % gain.

I posted the below a few weeks back to a similar question. Taking gains is based on your conviction and time horizon, especially if you have options and working with a shorter timeline. For my LEAP options I use a 20-50-100% rule where I take gains at each mark. IE when my LEAPS are up 20% I take 20% of the gains, at 50% I take 50% of the gains and then as we approach 100% I then make a decision to either sell completely or let the gains ride. This certainly can limit your upside but does protect your gains. Which circles back to your conviction on your trade, if I am more confident in a trade and or have a very positive long term trend I will raise my marks or trim less at each stop. For positions I am less confident I might sell more at each mark.

Originally Posted by 0xalate

This is just my .02 and my recommendation normally to clients is you never want to swing for a home run as you will often strike out. Singles and doubles win the game and enough shavings create a pile. Just remember, there is NEVER anything wrong with taking a profit. I think it is human psychology to think well if I would have stayed in the position longer, I would have made X more instead of saying I already made X%. This takes a long time to effectively come to terms with and not chase large returns. Multiple small wins can add up to a higher total return than one large win.

Unfortunately there is no golden selling rule, each trade is different based on conviction. Couple things to think about:

STOP LIMIT ORDER: This is critical when protecting your gains. I always target at least a 20% gain (normally 30-40% depending on my conviction but lets keep it simple) on any of my underlying securities and option trades. So lets say your apple call has appreciated from $5 to $6 for a 20% gain. Keeps rising and the call is now worth $6.50. I would place a stop limit order for $6, if the call option retraces back to $6 a limit sell order is triggered to execute at a certain price. You can use a sell stop order too only difference is that instead of a limit order it becomes a market order - this is better used for stocks. You can see a very large gap down on options on an off day so it is important to use a stop limit order.

If the apple call option continues to rise, I will typically raise my stop limit order with it to protect further gains - I ALWAYS put in a buffer for a volatile day, that is just my personal strategy. You need to set a target price for your stock as well. For example, you asked about my snow put. Stock was $400 when I purchased the put, I figured the flow was $250 based on purchasing volume and where I saw strong technical support, so I figured anything under $300 would be reasonable for me to cash out. Once it broke $300, I put in my limit order which was triggered. Could I have made more money on those puts? Absolutely. I walked away with over 140% profit, in my price target zone and I wanted to exit with an expiration approaching. I believe stock price holds for a bit until news picks up on upcoming 300m share unlock in March in which I will re-enter my put position.

If the trade gets away from me, I will continue to dollar cost average. If the option is coming up on 3 months to expiration (assuming I have held the position for several months) and I am not happy with where the option stands, I will roll the option to a later date before Theta kicks in hard. I've learned to roll out of options instead of selling and then seeing the option recover, it just needed more time for my theory to play out - that is why I started with, your sell strategy depends on your conviction.

LET YOUR GAINS RIDE: The other strategy I employ when I have a large gain is to reduce or eliminate my initial investment and let the gains ride. IE if I put $50k into xyz option, few weeks/months go buy and it is worth $70k, I will usually take out a portion of the $50k initial investment, if not all of it, then let the $20k continue to work on the option (I will implement a stop limit order on my gain too). That way you can take your initial investment and allocate elsewhere. Also if an option becomes too far deep ITM, because you got the call right, you will not see as much price upside. For those options that really appreciate, 300%+ I use a PM approach and once a position becomes too large of a position in my portfolio I begin trimming to re-allocate monies elsewhere. Personal preference there and this is more so when I think a stock becomes overbought. My own strategy is to never size a position more than 15% of my portfolio and I always have different expiration calls and puts in rotation depending on how the market evolves.

The aforementioned will help with your decisions on when to sell, you need to take into consideration how many days are left in the option too. If expiration is coming, you will have theta decay, so the value of the option could decline even though the stock price is rising. This is why I NEVER try to time options with weekly options or even monthlies (exceptions of course depending if there is a near term catalyst but I always hedge short term options), most of the time I aim for at least 6+ month expirations to give my theories time to play out - as I am patiently waiting on FDX, if I bought shorter term options I would have been burned.

Hope that helps everyone, I learned many of the strategies above the hard way and let large gains erode when I could have had multiple smaller wins that would have led to a much higher total return over that timeframe. Also by taking gains and trimming positions, it allows you to use the monies to build new positions that you would have otherwise missed out on.

Hectic day at work but I am writing the portion on how to use covered calls and write calls/puts to generate very safe levels of income streams, will post soon.

Originally Posted by logo

I’d say that FDX price action the past two months is like watching paint dry, but it’s more like watching paint dry with your eyelids stapled open. Hopefully it’ll catch a bid leading into earnings.

Low volume and hitting a brick wall at $260. Everything is lining up for this to be a blowout earnings, my only concern is they don't issue guidance or cite rising costs because oil is rising. Either way, they noted this will be their best quarter ever and EPS will be above $5 yet estimates are mid 3s. I've been underwater for months now but this trades at almost half the forward PE of sp500 with plenty of upside. Happy to roll my options and hold on to recover losses.

Originally Posted by AshCashEmAll

My holdings is PYPL, FDX, SQ, PINS, APPS, MGNI, NET. With calls in June and July for FDX, PINS, WMT, and QCOMM.

I am not experienced in options so I could really use some advice on how to manage my PINS $80c for June, QCOMM $135c for July, and lastly I bought a WMT$130c for June at the end of Friday. Do I sell now or if there is a pop at some point between now and then next earnings can I recoup my losses?


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You can roll your options out longer and or raise the strike as you roll out. I usually wait 60-90 days before expiration to roll if I am underwater or watch to catch more upside momentum. Typically you see a run into earnings based on anticipation and option IV will reflect that.

Lots of great buying opportunities today. Added to AAPL $135C Jan 2022 which are disproportionately oversold, will add each day it is under $120. Added to NVDA and PYPL again. Also looking to re-buy into SOXL position we moved in/out of last week. Stay the course and you will be rewarded.

[logo]

Originally Posted by 7sins

Low volume and hitting a brick wall at $260. Everything is lining up for this to be a blowout earnings, my only concern is they don't issue guidance or cite rising costs because oil is rising. Either way, they noted this will be their best quarter ever and EPS will be above $5 yet estimates are mid 3s. I've been underwater for months now but this trades at almost half the forward PE of sp500 with plenty of upside. Happy to roll my options and hold on to recover losses.

I agree, should be a blowout and keeping my fingers crossed for strong guidance. I’m thinking I’ll wait until after earnings before acting on my calls unless there’s a strong push in share price and IV leading into it, but likely I will plan to roll my current June expiry calls into an equivalent cost value of Jan 2022 expiry calls.


Also re AAPL - I’ve been adding AAPL $110 Jan 2022 calls as well.

[7sins]

Originally Posted by logo

I agree, should be a blowout and keeping my fingers crossed for strong guidance. I’m thinking I’ll wait until after earnings before acting on my calls unless there’s a strong push in share price and IV leading into it, but likely I will plan to roll my current June expiry calls into an equivalent cost value of Jan 2022 expiry calls.


Also re AAPL - I’ve been adding AAPL $110 Jan 2022 calls as well.

You and me both, running out of hail mary's soon haha.

Curious to your insight on why you are buying the ITM $110 strike leaps? Would think longer expiration you would buy more OTM or are you looking to dampen vol? I think this is such a home run trade in the long run especially after their last quarter results.

[bimmer nerd]

Originally Posted by 7sins

I posted the below a few weeks back to a similar question. Taking gains is based on your conviction and time horizon, especially if you have options and working with a shorter timeline. For my LEAP options I use a 20-50-100% rule where I take gains at each mark. IE when my LEAPS are up 20% I take 20% of the gains, at 50% I take 50% of the gains and then as we approach 100% I then make a decision to either sell completely or let the gains ride. This certainly can limit your upside but does protect your gains. Which circles back to your conviction on your trade, if I am more confident in a trade and or have a very positive long term trend I will raise my marks or trim less at each stop. For positions I am less confident I might sell more at each mark.

Low volume and hitting a brick wall at $260. Everything is lining up for this to be a blowout earnings, my only concern is they don't issue guidance or cite rising costs because oil is rising. Either way, they noted this will be their best quarter ever and EPS will be above $5 yet estimates are mid 3s. I've been underwater for months now but this trades at almost half the forward PE of sp500 with plenty of upside. Happy to roll my options and hold on to recover losses.

You can roll your options out longer and or raise the strike as you roll out. I usually wait 60-90 days before expiration to roll if I am underwater or watch to catch more upside momentum. Typically you see a run into earnings based on anticipation and option IV will reflect that.

Lots of great buying opportunities today. Added to AAPL $135C Jan 2022 which are disproportionately oversold, will add each day it is under $120. Added to NVDA and PYPL again. Also looking to re-buy into SOXL position we moved in/out of last week. Stay the course and you will be rewarded.

Hi Sins,

For SOXL, are you buying shares or calls and what date/strike price?

I've been adding shares of AAPL in my IRA account pretty regularly under $120.

[logo]

Originally Posted by 7sins

You and me both, running out of hail mary's soon haha.

Curious to your insight on why you are buying the ITM $110 strike leaps? Would think longer expiration you would buy more OTM or are you looking to dampen vol?

I went with the ITM calls for AAPL as the $110 calls are only about 2x the price of the $130 ones, and took a bigger hit than some other near ITM ones (and have huge OI). I figure this will allow me to effectively treat these options similar to how I would treat owning stock. I have no doubt AAPL will be above $140 again this year, but my uncertainty is in regards to how long it’ll take for them to get back up there. The added intrinsic value gives me a bit of a sense of security over time to move out of some calls if they happen to trade flat for a bit and a different opportunity arises, but also with the recent volatility I figure if the worst should happen and AAPL does happen to dip heavily below $110 then it gives me a good place to continue averaging down.

I did the same with NET, basically buying near ITM leaps to leverage up against the shares I already own.

[7sins]

Originally Posted by bimmer nerd

Hi Sins,

For SOXL, are you buying shares or calls and what date/strike price?

I've been adding shares of AAPL in my IRA account pretty regularly under $120.

Mix of shares and options, IV is VERY high - ATM if I recall is north of 100% IV. Caveat this is an incredibly aggressive play, 3x leverage on leverage options. Remember sequence of returns here, if you are down 50% you need 100% to net zero. To hit 50% loss you only need to be down 16% in the ETF at 3x leverage. SOXL down 36% in 5 days, will spring when markets stabilize and semiconductor demand is not going anywhere. Could see more downside and not thrilled a top 3 holding is INTC but happy to spread risk to other names inside it that I like such as AVGO, TSM, AMAT and NVDA. Again this is a very aggressive play, I would leg into it or use the high IV to either write cash secured short term puts and or covered calls to lower the cost. I'll be in/out of this trade quickly like last time I posted it after a 10% gain.

Originally Posted by logo

I went with the ITM calls for AAPL as the $110 calls are only about 2x the price of the $130 ones, and took a bigger hit than some other near ITM ones. I figure this will allow me to effectively treat these options similar to how I would treat owning stock. I have no doubt AAPL will be above $140 again this year, but my uncertainty is in regards to how long it’ll take for them to get back up there. The added intrinsic value gives me a bit of a sense of security over time to move out of some calls if they happen to trade flat for a bit and a different opportunity arises, but also with the recent volatility I figure if the worst should happen and AAPL does happen to dip heavily below $110 then it gives me a good place to continue averaging down.

I did the same with NET, basically buying near ITM leaps to leverage up against the shares I already own.

I'll have to take a look and see the breakevens along with delta but that is a great idea, maybe I will add to offset my OTM calls. Maybe we see Oct levels at sub $110, that should compress IV on the way down too for lower cost options. Safe play. Thanks for sharing!

[logo]

Originally Posted by 7sins

I'll have to take a look and see the breakevens along with delta but that is a great idea, maybe I will add to offset my OTM calls. Maybe we see Oct levels at sub $110, that should compress IV on the way down too for lower cost options. Safe play. Thanks for sharing!

No problem, and thank you for all the advice you’ve been providing! I agree, if it dips further it’ll only make for a cheaper entry, and with a Jan 2022 expiry I’m not sweating holding it with a break-even of ~$128 based on today’s last trade of this option (my cost basis is a bit higher, but meh - I bought the dip after the dip, but failed to realize it would dip a third time lol). I’m kind of thinking at this point it’ll probably tag the 200d MA at least, around $114 and will add more there.

[JParm]

Will the rally hold today? Million dollar question.

Haven't made any moves lately; just holding pat while fully invested.