Snoopy 2020 - is it too expensive?

[42itus]

Here is what I was told by an OB. Take it for what it is as I have no idea how much my SA knows.

Around 2-3 weeks ago, I was told they cannot take any more deposits because they don't know how soon they can deliver the watch. As of yesterday, after the release, I was told that they can take as many orders as they can. Customers with purchase history will get theirs first regardless of when the deposit was received. Also, as of yesterday, the total needs to be paid in full or the deposit will be refunded.

I got the impression that they will try to make as many watches as they can based on the amount of orders taken. The sentiment is that they want even first time Omega buyers to be able to buy this watch without jumping through any hoops.

I would not buy this watch with the hopes of flipping it.

One side note, Omega just received millions in interest free loans.

[Ringhio]

Originally Posted by 42itus

Here is what I was told by an OB. Take it for what it is as I have no idea how much my SA knows.

Around 2-3 weeks ago, I was told they cannot take any more deposits because they don't know how soon they can deliver the watch. As of yesterday, after the release, I was told that they can take as many orders as they can. Customers with purchase history will get theirs first regardless of when the deposit was received. Also, as of yesterday, the total needs to be paid in full or the deposit will be refunded.

I got the impression that they will try to make as many watches as they can based on the amount of orders taken. The sentiment is that they want even first time Omega buyers to be able to buy this watch without jumping through any hoops.

I would not buy this watch with the hopes of flipping it.

One side note, Omega just received millions in interest free loans.

They officially just stopped the list for the whole US market.
So, it seems they cannot and will not attempt unlimited production.
Production is limited, it has just been proved by facts today.

Do you have information pointing to a different direction?

Regarding first time buyers or not getting the reference: OB are delivering first to the VIPs and ppl with history with the brand, then they will go in order of deposit. It seems pretty straightforward to me.

ps: I got your points anyway... yes, they are allowing first time customers a good chance of getting the reference, especially if they move fast. You are totally right!

[42itus]

I don't have any information. As it is with most "my SA said" posts, it's just speculation. But I've already paid in full, and I have purchase history, so I don't know why my SA kept making the point that anyone will be able to get this piece. Maybe in case I know others that are interested?

Either way, I can see the argument for releasing a ton of these or controlling the supply. In the long run Omega should capitalize on this and try to create some artificial hype because people always want what others say is hot and rare. But on the other hand I hate that I can't go in to Rolex and try on and buy whatever I want, so I can see the benefit of making all their watches available for almost anyone.

[Ringhio]

I payed in full as well, we are on the same boat, but you have for sure more history... so you are definitely better positioned.
I think the main problem for clients will be dictated by production rate, that might be pretty slow.
The corporate strategy was to build a solid base with the US market, then saturate their capacity on the launch day. Yesterday they opened full deposits outside us.
I have friends in Europe that placed their deposits today.
So far their strategy is working.
We will see if they are able to maintain promises and not cause depreciation of the reference.
Fingers crossed!

[iwenger]

In another edition of "my SA said..."

I did not put down a deposit or express interest prior to yesterday's announcement. I was unfortunately otherwise occupied for the entire day yesterday, but I called my local Omega boutique today and spoke to one of the SAs. They told me they had received a ton of interest around the release (surprise!); they had also received enough deposits from customers that they were no longer taking deposits/preorders.

They did allow me to put myself on the "list" for the piece, after confirming that I had previously purchased from them, of course. They were unable to give me an idea of the time frame we're looking at but said they'd give me a call once my name comes up, or if someone with a deposit decides they don't want their piece.

I had been hoping to acquire a GMT in the coming year or so, but I have to say I really like the Snoopy 50. My wife likes it too! But her first question? "Do you think it'll hold its value?"

[Rollieo]

Originally Posted by Skyrider01

If you compare it to the Apollo 11 50th Anniversary piece, I think the Snoopy is overpriced by $1500 to $2000.

The A11 50th is only $50 more than the Snoopy 50th.
Yet the A11 has a SS bracelet, touches of gold, and is a limited edition.

Although the Snoopy has the animated caseback which the A11 doesn't, I don't think that in itself should bring the price in line with the A11.

So just comparing from a technology perspective - personally I think the extra complication with the caseback alone its worth an extra $2k.

Then you have the Naiad locking system and the full silver Ag925 dial that’s laser cut.

Apollo 11 only has ss bracelet and touches of gold as you mentioned.

When talking about it being limited edition, that brings in a lot of other factors like desireability, hype, rarity, supply vs demand. Ultimately if the Snoopy 50 has a lot more demand than supply, not sure Apollo 11 being a LE means more than not being able to get a Snoopy 50.


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[AlyRba]

placed a $5k deposit yesterday at OB. I was 40 on the list. I tried pushing for the full payment but the SA wasn’t ready to take the remaining amount. It seems a lot of folks in US made full payments yesterday.

Today, I was told by the SA that deposits are closed for the US and there have been 1,200 partial deposits/full payments. It seems that full payment folks will be given deliveries in Q4 2020/Q1 2021 whereas remaining partial deposit customers will get allocations second half of 2021/Q1 2022.

I don’t feel too confident about getting an allocation but at least I am in better position than those who won’t be able to put down a deposit now.

[Rollieo]

Originally Posted by Ringhio

The Snoopy 45 was 7K, 5 years ago.
If Omega released essentially the same watch yesterday it could have been priced fairly around 8.5k.

I would argue that they actually almost did that, but with an important spin:
- the movement is updated
- they added a complication (although it's only an aesthetical one and technically not too challenging to achieve, it's still a complication and makes the reference unique)

Does these factors justify $1100 delta in price? I believe yes.

At this point the main and huge difference is the LE.
Because, let's be honest, if yesterday Omega had announced that they would have made a LE with 2020 pieces, we wouldn't even see one comment about the look of the watch in comparison to the 45, or the "gimmick" back, or Snoopy is a name for kids we like superheroes like Batman to show that we have big balls... (my personal favorite comment )

Now, the bottom line is that, in terms of value of the piece this is a bet on the brand.
If Omega plays it well, there is a good chance that the piece will retain its value (I'm not saying it will grow, because that is a very difficult prediction).
If Omega floods the market with the Snoopy and the flippers flip them, the reference will lose 30% of its value in a couple of years, easily.

Now, the real point is: Is Omega so dumb that they will switch their business model, build a potentially "hot reference", and then go full force in mass production causing depreciation of their own new reference?

We will see in a couple of months what is the trend, and in 1-2 of years if this hypothesis holds.

Ringhio spot on.

Omega wants to get back on top. The gap is too far between Omega and Rolex now, but the products that Omega put out are still top notch. Marketing, distribution, control of supply - that’s what Rolex has been doing so well that’s put them ahead of Omega.

Omega lacks control over all its distribution points, there will always be ADs that will say or do what they want. Maybe one AD is on hard times, they want to take deposits to float cash. Come back to you later and convince you to buy something else when they can’t get a snoopy. They can hold your money and play that game for 6 months. Omega can’t tell ADs not to take deposits, not enough control over the ADs to do this. So the idea that an AD said they’ll take your deposit and can get you the watch, or the AD was trying to convince me to put down a deposit. Doesn’t give me the indication they actually will.

On the other hand - I just spoke with an AD (store manager, been there 20 years) today that did the opposite. This AD is at a multi chain store (4 store locations), so decent size. They said interest and demand for Snoopy 50 has been sky high, and because allocation to their store has been unclear, they have not taken a single deposit. They explained to me in the past for another watch they just don’t take deposits on watches they are unsure they can get; since they don’t want to manage the backlash of returning deposits.

This same AD has taken my deposit before on another watch, and I did get that watch in a timely manner. So without getting into what the AD says, to me this is what did the AD do. They didn’t want my deposit, and it’s a multi store chain. I have to say it’s has to be because allocation is going to be tight, or maybe ADs won’t even get allocation at all. Why go through the ADs when they’re having their OBs stop taking deposits?

So far I think Omega is playing the game well, and given they will control supply closely, those that wait a year or two to get this watch, will find it hard to get.

Glad to say I already got my deposit on this watch at an OB back in May, and paid the balance in full yesterday!


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[Cubex68]

Originally Posted by Ringhio

I payed in full as well, we are on the same boat, but you have for sure more history... so you are definitely better positioned.
I think the main problem for clients will be dictated by production rate, that might be pretty slow.
The corporate strategy was to build a solid base with the US market, then saturate their capacity on the launch day. Yesterday they opened full deposits outside us.
I have friends in Europe that placed their deposits today.
So far their strategy is working.
We will see if they are able to maintain promises and not cause depreciation of the reference.
Fingers crossed!

OB informed me last week that only 250 pieces are hitting US market this year.

[TheRenegadeOfFunk]

Exactly how rare is this watch? I have an opportunity to buy it retail here in Tokyo. I'm seeing it going for ~$35k on the grey market. Would I be dumb to pass this up?

[texasmade]

Originally Posted by Cubex68

OB informed me last week that only 250 pieces are hitting US market this year.

I've been told 2500 produced in total in Y1 and another 2500 for Y2. No production target after that.

[vh2k]

Watchbox has one listed at $34,000.

[TheRenegadeOfFunk]

It's about $10k here from the shop. Going to pick this up I think.

[Rollieo]

Originally Posted by TheRenegadeOfFunk

It's about $10k here from the shop. Going to pick this up I think.

Pretty sure you got the wrong watch, or you won’t actually be able to pick it up

[42itus]

Originally Posted by TheRenegadeOfFunk

It's about $10k here from the shop. Going to pick this up I think.

Sitting in the case? pics or it didn’t happen.


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[TheRenegadeOfFunk]

False alarm. Shady sales guy. Claimed to have it in the shop, then when I came in he started talking about how I should buy other watches, started talking about how Snoopy would "become available" if I bought something, then finally came clean and said they had zero in stock and didn't know when that would change.

Lame.

[greengold]

Originally Posted by 42itus

Sitting in the case? pics or it didn’t happen.


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Wheres the like button around here

[cgaites]

If you Google “Omega Silver Snoopy 2020” there is at least one dealer currently asking $99K and claiming to have one in stock at that price. Amazing...

[toptiertimepieces]

yes, it think it is

[Rollieo]

I’d like to claim that my original post of $10k saying it wasn’t too expensive... was accurate!