AP Stock Recommendation for APRIL 2021

[GS93108]

AP is a privately owned company, but just for giggles, imagine a scenario where it is a publicly traded stock.

Let’s use this poll(s) as a metric to measure the sentiment level for AP.

Clearly there’s a whole lot of negativity towards AP in the wake of Marvel at the moment, but it’ll be interesting to see how that translates to votes now and then how that carries over to future months.

Feel free to add your recommendation reasons, or not.

p.s.

To be true to the poll, please vote as if you were genuinely 'investing'.

[HMHM]

I voted for hold as next year is the 15202 50th anniversary. Unless the hype completely disappears overnight it’s unlikely the ROs will experience decline in demand. That said the BP was not really my cup of tea and besides the RO I’m not sure if AP have any more tricks under their sleeve. Remaster 01 is amazing but I’m not too keen on pink gold.

[macrowatch]

Buy on strength of CEO.

Also, I think ironically here the liquidity premium goes the other way as a private company instead of a public company. Wouldn't want to see the brand face the same pressures that something like Ferrari has undergone as a public company IMHO.

[VogelPhoenix]

Originally Posted by macrowatch

Buy on strength of CEO.

Also, I think ironically here the liquidity premium goes the other way as a private company instead of a public company. Wouldn't want to see the brand face the same pressures that something like Ferrari has undergone as a public company IMHO.

It's difficult to see how a public company could resist the pressure to cash in on the current craziness by increasing production and raising prices (and have a character like FHB as CEO )

edit: well, raising prices even faster than they already do...

[chiscott_29]

Hold at best, likely Sell.

And for the record, were AP to do an IPO (I totally realize this is a hypothetical) I'd sell every watch I had because the day would come, probably soon, where investors' needs don't match the company's needs. AP must keep the air of exclusivity and limited supply - without that I fail to see the excitement. Add to that they offer absolutely nothing that you can "mass produce".

So for these reasons, I can't think of a more terrible combination for the outlook of a stock.

[Vivalas]

AP is a buy full stop. It’s hugely on the up right now, more than ever before. I’m seeing it more and more on social media and desire is growing.

Whilst I wouldn’t buy the Marvel offering myself, AP knew what they were doing, knew there would be mixed reviews and knew it would push the brand higher. I think we’ll look back in years to come and wish we’d had the chance to buy it.

Controversial maybe but . . . . Having owned all 3 of the so called holy trinity brands I’d say that AP is 2nd and catching up with PP quickly. It will overtake it in time. It’s got a lot of hard work to achieve that considering PP’s position in the marketplace but it will get there. It has more of an appeal to a younger audience and that’s where I think the spending will be in years to come - say 30 to 60.

[HMHM]

Originally Posted by Vivalas

I’d say that AP is 2nd and catching up with PP quickly. It will overtake it in time. It’s got a lot of hard work to achieve that considering PP’s position in the marketplace but it will get there. It has more of an appeal to a younger audience and that’s where I think the spending will be in years to come - say 30 to 60.

But I think that’s where AP has slightly took a misstep though. We keep on assuming that with AP targeting the younger audience it will get the sales of the younger demographic. But I don’t think that’s the case though. The younger generation will eventually grow up and aspire to own things that that befit their current age and their development. Like a child seeing his dad wearing a really classy watch instead of one with Mickey Mouse hands to a board room meeting. And I think that will inspire the young people to want to buy something inspirational and not something that is a throw back of their past. That’s why as much as I think Marvel collaboration may bring something to the table, the older generation might find it really perplexing. And the older generation have a lot of money to play the watch game compared to the up and coming youngsters.

[chiscott_29]

I am not an investment expert by any means, but aren't two of the most important factors to a solid investment a company's growth rate and their operating margin? AP cannot appreciably increase either of these without pissing off their collectors/customers.

To me, this would be a TERRIBLE investment...and I say that with genuine love for AP. I'm not at all a hater as anybody on here knows.

Can somebody please build a case as to why AP stock would be a "BUY" without injecting in emotion or desire for their timepieces?

I seriously don't think this is possible, but I will stand by waiting to be enlightened.

[GS93108]

Originally Posted by chiscott_29

I am not an investment expert by any means, but aren't two of the most important factors to a solid investment a company's growth rate and their operating margin? AP cannot appreciably increase either of these without pissing off their collectors/customers.

To me, this would be a TERRIBLE investment...and I say that with genuine love for AP. I'm not at all a hater as anybody on here knows.

Can somebody please build a case as to why AP stock would be a "BUY" without injecting in emotion or desire for their timepieces?

I seriously don't think this is possible, but I will stand by waiting to be enlightened.

There you go again, over thinking everything :)

p.s.

Given you've taken the 'fantasy' to a new level, I didn't vote, I didn't think it fair given my insider knowledge and that I have a boiler room of shills pumping AP.

[supernova]

Originally Posted by chiscott_29

I am not an investment expert by any means, but aren't two of the most important factors to a solid investment a company's growth rate and their operating margin? AP cannot appreciably increase either of these without pissing off their collectors/customers.

To me, this would be a TERRIBLE investment...and I say that with genuine love for AP. I'm not at all a hater as anybody on here knows.

Can somebody please build a case as to why AP stock would be a "BUY" without injecting in emotion or desire for their timepieces?

I seriously don't think this is possible, but I will stand by waiting to be enlightened.

They were able to increase prices 3 times last year and demand is still growing, that’s increasing top and bottom line so how’s that not growth? There’s many ways to grow, not just drastically increasing supply although AP have signaled in the past they will be making more watches YoY but obviously not in huge amounts.

But I agree if a company like AP or Rolex ever go public, I would be very cautious going forward.


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk

[V25V]

Def sell.

[macrowatch]

Originally Posted by chiscott_29

I am not an investment expert by any means, but aren't two of the most important factors to a solid investment a company's growth rate and their operating margin? AP cannot appreciably increase either of these without pissing off their collectors/customers.

To me, this would be a TERRIBLE investment...and I say that with genuine love for AP. I'm not at all a hater as anybody on here knows.

Can somebody please build a case as to why AP stock would be a "BUY" without injecting in emotion or desire for their timepieces?

I seriously don't think this is possible, but I will stand by waiting to be enlightened.

Man, I bet even if I scooped up 10% of the hypothetical shares I still couldn’t get off the wait list!

[supernova]

Also the recent backlash over the Black Panther is definitely short term noise which is always a buying opportunity for me, which is how I buy some stocks generally.


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk

[chiscott_29]

Originally Posted by macrowatch

Man, I bet even if I scooped up 10% of the hypothetical shares I still couldn’t get off the wait list!

Lol!!

[chiscott_29]

Originally Posted by supernova

They were able to increase prices 3 times last year and demand is still growing, that’s increasing top and bottom line so how’s that not growth? There’s many ways to grow, not just drastically increasing supply although AP have signaled in the past they will be making more watches YoY but obviously not in huge amounts.

But I agree if a company like AP or Rolex ever go public, I would be very cautious going forward.


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk

Maybe it’s just me but I’m not a fan of a company that can only grow the top line via price increases. What are you going to do when you can’t raise prices? I don’t care what you’re selling but nobody can raise prices indiscriminately. Not even our beloved AP...

Furthermore, a growth company needs measured growth of 30%+ to justify high multiples. Not measly 5 to 6% price adjustments.

There’s a reason these companies remain private. They just aren’t viable public entities (on their own).

[szabo_martin]

AP demand is still as strong as ever. The RO is their bread and butter and they execute it to a science. The bracelet finishing is probably the gold standard in the watch industry. Other than the BP (not a comic book fan) their 2021 offerings are looking pretty solid. The new RO Platinum Ultrathin green dial is pure sexy

[supernova]

Originally Posted by chiscott_29

Maybe it’s just me but I’m not a fan of a company that can only grow the top line via price increases. What are you going to do when you can’t raise prices? I don’t care what you’re selling but nobody can raise prices indiscriminately. Not even our beloved AP...

Furthermore, a growth company needs measured growth of 30%+ to justify high multiples. Not measly 5 to 6% price adjustments.

There’s a reason these companies remain private. They just aren’t viable public entities (on their own).

I suppose that’s the catch 22 of going public, you’ll get greedy shareholders telling you to pump out more watches, which will be good short term but will drive the business to the ground long term. And if you don’t, not many shareholders are happy with the 5-6% growth and your stock price tanks.


Some companies do well going public to get the funding to grow. But for AP and Rolex, I think they are happy with their 5-6% growth and don’t need the funding, and I’m glad they aren’t public.

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[Swaye]

It's a complete sell for me personally, but to the broader market it appears to be a buy. Guess I am out of sync with all the new "watch collectors" on the Gram. Pity.

[AK797]

Might as well ride the Bull market until it bursts, same thing is happening with soccer/football now and the ESL that from nowhere could burst the football bubble, so much money is in that industry that the rich just want to become richer or they want a bailout as they are too big to fail - who isn't nowadays? - like debt ridden Real Madrid. It's the same for the major watch market players - so let it ride, as they say on the morning line.