AP RO Jumbo (Platinum) - Hodinkee Article

[fsprow]

It’s hard to see what the problem is here. Watches are a totally discretionary product - not like healthcare!! One may not like the way the market is set, including the role of resellers, “flippers” etc. and wish things were the way they once were, but the reality is that one can easily purchase any watch that they desire at market price. Or sit back and bemoan current reality.

No one knows what the “material balance” is here. By that I mean the overall flow of watches from manufacturers, intermediaries, and customers etc. and how large a role different buyers and purchasers play.

[macrowatch]

Originally Posted by fsprow

It’s hard to see what the problem is here. Watches are a totally discretionary product - not like healthcare!! One may not like the way the market is set, including the role of resellers, “flippers” etc. and wish things were the way they once were, but the reality is that one can easily purchase any watch that they desire at market price. Or sit back and bemoan current reality.

No one knows what the “material balance” is here. By that I mean the overall flow of watches from manufacturers, intermediaries, and customers etc. and how large a role different buyers and purchasers play.

Well now that's not entirely true. I believe Guanxi and Conkers represent 7.9% of the uber market and 7sins is probably 3% of the total jumbo market.

[HMHM]

Originally Posted by fsprow

It’s hard to see what the problem is here. Watches are a totally discretionary product - not like healthcare!! One may not like the way the market is set, including the role of resellers, “flippers” etc. and wish things were the way they once were, but the reality is that one can easily purchase any watch that they desire at market price. Or sit back and bemoan current reality.

No one knows what the “material balance” is here. By that I mean the overall flow of watches from manufacturers, intermediaries, and customers etc. and how large a role different buyers and purchasers play.

The issue is very simple: if they can’t ensure that the special watches go to customers who deserve it and wear it as intended, then they need to stop doing PR gimmicks about how ‘relationship’ matters to the brands. All of us here are not born yesterday or 10 days ago. We understand that money speaks louder than attitude, interest passion etc. So if guy A spends 100k and gets the watch over guy B who spends 10k, that’s a FAIR game. But if guy C buys 3 CODEs and flip it, then buys a 15500 then flip it and finally gets the 15407 and flip it, I don’t think that’s very fair although on paper he has a purchase history of 5 watches. All we are saying is AP can track down who this BP owners are and issue them a warning: hey we know whats going on. Stop it or we will blacklist you. It’s easy to build a purchase history by flipping watches. Holding on to multiple watches and trying to ADD another to the collection is harder, especially if subsequent watch purchases are of higher prices.

[cascavel]

Originally Posted by fsprow

It’s hard to see what the problem is here. Watches are a totally discretionary product - not like healthcare!! One may not like the way the market is set, including the role of resellers, “flippers” etc. and wish things were the way they once were, but the reality is that one can easily purchase any watch that they desire at market price. Or sit back and bemoan current reality.

No one knows what the “material balance” is here. By that I mean the overall flow of watches from manufacturers, intermediaries, and customers etc. and how large a role different buyers and purchasers play.

Finally, the voice of reason. This market isn't so different from 5 years ago, only the complaints are. Back then the gripe was "I'd like to buy a 15202 but the hit between retail and resale is onerous". One had to swallow hard when pulling out the credit card to pay for any AP and most PPs. You had to be a complete spendthrift to buy a PP 5980a at retail, even with a 10% discount. Journe was a certain loser.
Ben Clymer makes one good point in his screed which is that under the circumstances of 5 years ago, when it was simple to buy today's most coveted pieces, most people didn't.

[911AP]

Originally Posted by cascavel

Finally, the voice of reason. This market isn't so different from 5 years ago, only the complaints are. Back then the gripe was "I'd like to buy a 15202 but the hit between retail and resale is onerous". One had to swallow hard when pulling out the credit card to pay for any AP and most PPs. You had to be a complete spendthrift to buy a PP 5980a at retail, even with a 10% discount. Journe was a certain loser.
Ben Clymer makes one good point in his screed which is that under the circumstances of 5 years ago, when it was simple to buy today's most coveted pieces, most people didn't.

People always bought the 39mm openworked. It held value better than most APs. About a 4k discount I think which was barely even 5-10%. This all started when the new 15407 came out and people went nuts for it. Then they went crazy for the 15202. Then it trickled down to the 15400/15500. Then finally to the ROCs which barely anyone bought. The problem is one line of RO which became impossible to get started a trend to make them all impossible to get.

Patek and the 15202 I agree with you. I was on the list from my AD to finally buy a 15202 for 17,500 brand new before the AD purge began. I'm still kind of butt hurt I ended up paying full retail of 27k for the same watch. But in the grand scheme of where prices are now, 27k is a bargain .

I still regret not getting a 5711r at my local dealer when I had the chance a couple years ago. I would have had to sell both my APs to fund it, and I was thinking in my head I can always get this. I'll just pick it up when I can afford it without having to sell my other watches . I never thought even gold watches would become impossible to get.

[7sins]

Originally Posted by macrowatch

Well now that's not entirely true. I believe Guanxi and Conkers represent 7.9% of the uber market and 7sins is probably 3% of the total jumbo market.

My jumbo marketshare will be taking a hit my friend, going towards the darkside and trading in several for a 5740 soon :)

[AshAP]

Originally Posted by 7sins

My jumbo marketshare will be taking a hit my friend, going towards the darkside and trading in several for a 5740 soon :)

My best mate has that, I think it wears very small. Hope you’ve been able to try one on before selling other great watches.


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[7sins]

Originally Posted by AshAP

My best mate has that, I think it wears very small. Hope you’ve been able to try one on before selling other great watches.


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I thought it wore similar if not slightly larger than my jumbo, albeit I have a smaller wrist.

[Token74]

Originally Posted by fsprow

It’s hard to see what the problem is here. Watches are a totally discretionary product - not like healthcare!! One may not like the way the market is set, including the role of resellers, “flippers” etc. and wish things were the way they once were, but the reality is that one can easily purchase any watch that they desire at market price. Or sit back and bemoan current reality.

No one knows what the “material balance” is here. By that I mean the overall flow of watches from manufacturers, intermediaries, and customers etc. and how large a role different buyers and purchasers play.

Agree with this entirely.

There’s all sorts of stuff I’d like but can’t get because those more wealthy, more connected, more famous, or more corrupt can always get in ahead of me. But I’ve had real issues to deal with in life, so this doesn’t really register on the scale of things i care about.

Frankly, I just count my lucky blessings that I can afford the stuff i can’t buy!!


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[VogelPhoenix]

Originally Posted by Token74

Frankly, I just count my lucky blessings that I can afford the stuff i can’t buy!!

Words to live by!

[fsprow]

As another thought, my father told me as a boy:
“The world is not fair. Deal with it”

[AshAP]

Originally Posted by 7sins

I thought it wore similar if not slightly larger than my jumbo, albeit I have a smaller wrist.

You’re right the actual bezel size looks bigger however I think it wears smaller due to the way the Jumbo bracelet flares compared to the Nautilus which doesn’t to the same extent


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[m3jasper]

Originally Posted by conkers

Some entertaining posts here!

I for one believe that AP are doing an decent job of balancing supply and demand for their good customers. For newer customers, of course it must be a nightmare for them, but a nice problem to have.

I have missed out on a few pieces I wanted in the last 18 months or so and they are very open with me on the matter and then we move on. No biggie. They have many mouths to feed and they need to spread the love. The market has changed of course, and I must change my expectations accordingly.

Well said, Roger. I wholeheartedly agree.

Originally Posted by macrowatch

Are you sure they aren't all literally selling the same watch to see who gets a buyer first or even selling a phantom watch they need to procure? When I was in NY recently, all the stores that said they had one actually didn't have one when I showed up. (At least the CE Openwork).

Most ads on Chrono24 are fake and inflated in price.

Originally Posted by 911AP

They aren't sitting on chrono24. But contact the big dealers. They can get you one.

I'm not saying the ADs are selling to the grey's. That may happen still....I don't know. But 100% end user customers who are getting these from AP are selling to the grey's.

AP does not care. If they did, they would track these people down. If anything they want this hype. It's all great publicity for their brand. Everyone is trying to copy RM marketing. As annoying as this is for all of us who are normal spenders. It's working to AP advantage big time. Their watches are more desirable than ever. The big spenders and people with those close relationships will continue to get these highly desirable limited edition watches at retail. The regular people will just be grateful they got an entry level 15500 at retail.

AP makes so few watches they don't care. They sell what they need to sell and they don't care to produce more to make all of us happy. At the end of the day their profits are higher than they have ever been, their revenue is higher than it's ever been, their reach is wider than it's ever been. Why change anything?

AP does care and if you're a client that flips their watch, you will 100% be flagged once they find out.

Originally Posted by macrowatch

That's just it though, I actually DO think they are tracking down who let go of their CE openworks (both PQ and regular). So whoever is letting it go is deciding that amount of money is worth to exit the relationship with the brand.

And to your point, I did reach out to the big dealers in NYC, took a few days to find a non open-worked CE perpetual, but spun the wheels a lot longer for the openworked, and some never got back to me. None had on hand despite advertising, despite confirming on the phone they had stock in hand.

Most ads on Chrono24 are fake.

A friend and I searched for a 26585CE for 11 months. The only place that actually had one IRL and in stock was ExclusiveTimePieces, Avi&Co, and ExpressWatchesNYC.

[macrowatch]

Originally Posted by m3jasper

Well said, Roger. I wholeheartedly agree.

Most ads on Chrono24 are fake and inflated in price.

AP does care and if you're a client that flips their watch, you will 100% be flagged once they find out.

Most ads on Chrono24 are fake.

A friend and I searched for a 26585CE for 11 months. The only place that actually had one IRL and in stock was ExclusiveTimePieces, Avi&Co, and ExpressWatchesNYC.

Does that mean there were three of them floating around at the same time at one point?

@m3jaspers, more off topic, at current market prices, what do you think is a better watch for enjoyment long term, the CE openwork perpetual, CE non-openwork perpetual, or the platinum perpetual?

[911AP]

Originally Posted by m3jasper

AP does care and if you're a client that flips their watch, you will 100% be flagged once they find out.

A friend and I searched for a 26585CE for 11 months. The only place that actually had one IRL and in stock was ExclusiveTimePieces, Avi&Co, and ExpressWatchesNYC.

Again if AP cared we wouldn't see so many of these hitting the greys. I'm not buying it.

What is the proof they are backlisting these people?

But, like I said before....go to a reputable grey like the 3 mentioned above, and they'll be able to get you what you need. It all depends what price you are willing to pay.

[chiscott_29]

Originally Posted by 911AP

Again if AP cared we wouldn't see so many of these hitting the greys. I'm not buying it.

What is the proof they are backlisting these people?

But, like I said before....go to a reputable grey like the 3 mentioned above, and they'll be able to get you what you need. It all depends what price you are willing to pay.

My personal opinion is “it depends”. If you’re a big spender and an established customer, they’ll look the other way. If you flipped your first RO they allocated to you, chances are good that you’re done.

Let’s be brutally honest for a minute. These really hot/limited watches are all going to big/established spenders. Sure, there may be an isolated case of a Jumbo or a CE going to a first time customer, but that’s lightning in a bottle. Whoever disagrees with this can live in their fantasy land and I will live in mine. Some of these pieces end up being flipped, or the collector gets bored with it. All in all, AP could care less. Why would they?

Where I do think they “crack down” is on everybody else…especially those that received an allocation from a corporate boutique. If NYC sold me an RO and in a few weeks they saw it gone from my account, I’d assume I’d be done with AP.

There’s another gray area I believe when it’s a partner boutique/AD. I believe they may get reprimanded on occasion if one of their customers flipped, but ultimately in this case the relationship is much more between the collector and the AD…there’s little connection to the AP mothership. The cycle could repeat itself quite easily with both collector and AD claiming casual indifference/ignorance. Of course, the AD might be risking their relationship with AP if there was an established pattern, but that would take an awful lot of effort to track down and confirm.

Bottom line, it’s possible to cover your tracks but it is never a guarantee. At today’s insane secondary prices, I think many people simply DGAF. I can’t say I blame them…At the end of the day it’s business on all ends for a vast majority of people that are playing this game.


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