Talking Stocks 2.0

[vipereaper30]

Originally Posted by huncho

i still can't see fed actually raising rates with this kind of a reaction before anything was even done. maybe they'll backpedal on it or push it back a bit

The Fed is so overdue for action they know they have to continue on this path. If the Fed becomes purely a prop for the market I will move to a private island and watch the subsequent meltdown from afar.

Hope they can navigate this well but with the Fed in catch-up mode and the markets as overvalued as ever a possible outcome could be dramatic reductions in asset pricing.

Another example, some think crypto is a house of cards. As long as values generally keep going up it is self-reinforcing. With the amount of leverage and speculation in the market today, and the mindset "we can only go up, right?", if things stay flat to down for long its highly likely the self-reinforcing will turn the opposite direction. That is, down.

[chsu74]

Originally Posted by vipereaper30

BCRX bounce in motion today and positive news to keep up the momentum. Up 16% this AM on PR.

—ORLADEYO preliminary net revenue of $45.6 million for Q4 2021 and $122 million for FY 2021—
—ORLADEYO net revenue expected to more than double in 2022 to no less than $250 million; Company expects ORLADEYO to become the market leader in HAE prophylaxis therapy with peak sales of $1 billion—
—Enrollment of PNH patients has begun in REDEEM-1 and REDEEM-2 pivotal trials of BCX9930, oral Factor D inhibitor for complement-mediated diseases—

JPM Conference presentation today. Very excited with our opportunities here.

https://jpmorgan.metameetings.net/ev...?gpu_only=true

I am long in this but not with a significant amount. What is their quarterly burn rate with 100 mil in cash and 300 mil debt? When are their notes due?

[huncho]

Originally Posted by vipereaper30

The Fed is so overdue for action they know they have to continue on this path. If the Fed becomes purely a prop for the market I will move to a private island and watch the subsequent meltdown from afar.

Hope they can navigate this well but with the Fed in catch-up mode and the markets as overvalued as ever a possible outcome could be dramatic reductions in asset pricing.

Another example, some think crypto is a house of cards. As long as values generally keep going up it is self-reinforcing. With the amount of leverage and speculation in the market today, and the mindset "we can only go up, right?", if things stay flat to down for long its highly likely the self-reinforcing will turn the opposite direction. That is, down.

i totally get it and realize they created a bit of a mess during these last 2 years but at this point over half the stocks in the s&p are at 1+ year lows so it's a bit worrying to see what would happen with 3 rate hikes. would these tech stocks all go to pre pandemic valuations? so we would essentially erase 2 years of gains aside from mega caps that are actually propping up the market and then they would have printed all that money and still caused a collapse. maybe i'm just being a doomer now but hard not to be lol

[vipereaper30]

Originally Posted by chsu74

I am long in this but not with a significant amount. What is their quarterly burn rate with 100 mil in cash and 300 mil debt? When are their notes due?

They ended the year with about $200M in cash and project revenues from Orladeyo to keep them cash flow positive. Problem is, to ramp up trials in all the indications for 9930 and other compounds (essentially go faster) they likely need access to additional resources. They can access appx 100M today but had a failed attempt at a secondary (part of the drop from $18 to $13) because they pulled the plug due to market conditions.

Cash is always a concern early for companies at this stage. My calculus is how much money is needed to go "how fast" today.

Watch the JPM presentation for the big picture. Check their IR site for the details on notes and cash. And always...do your DD!

[chsu74]

Originally Posted by vipereaper30

They ended the year with about $200M in cash and project revenues from Orladeyo to keep them cash flow positive. Problem is, to ramp up trials in all the indications for 9930 and other compounds (essentially go faster) they likely need access to additional resources. They can access appx 100M today but had a failed attempt at a secondary (part of the drop from $18 to $13) because they pulled the plug due to market conditions.

Cash is always a concern early for companies at this stage. My calculus is how much money is needed to go "how fast" today.

Watch the JPM presentation for the big picture. Check their IR site for the details on notes and cash. And always...do your DD!

Thanks. Rough day as this is one of the few green ones on my screen.

[vipereaper30]

Originally Posted by huncho

i totally get it and realize they created a bit of a mess during these last 2 years but at this point over half the stocks in the s&p are at 1+ year lows so it's a bit worrying to see what would happen with 3 rate hikes. would these tech stocks all go to pre pandemic valuations? so we would essentially erase 2 years of gains aside from mega caps that are actually propping up the market and then they would have printed all that money and still caused a collapse. maybe i'm just being a doomer now but hard not to be lol

I feel you, investing isn't easy but the markets have made it so over the last decade. Another reason why the current overvaluation could be ripe for a large correction. It breeds complacency.

We could double from here. We could get halved from here. Place your bets and hedge well, but try to avoid an emotional response. Fear and greed lead to some of the the biggest mistakes and if you can use others irrational responses for your gain all the better.

[huncho]

Originally Posted by vipereaper30

I feel you, investing isn't easy but the markets have made it so over the last decade. Another reason why the current overvaluation could be ripe for a large correction. It breeds complacency.

We could double from here. We could get halved from here. Place your bets and hedge well, but try to avoid an emotional response. Fear and greed lead to some of the the biggest mistakes and if you can use others irrational responses for your gain all the better.

patience will ultimately win here so just gonna stay the course. i think anyone who's gonna try to play this will get burned. i still think we'll be up later this year so it's just a matter of surviving this in the short term

have been through this so many times with crypto but so much of that is house money at this point that it doesn't faze me as much as when i'm investing my own salary lol

[logo]

SPY at 100d MA (455), Russell at its support that has held the past year, DJI at 50d MA, Nasdaq at its 200d MA. Zooming out, there is still uptrend for all except Russell which has been flat. It’s bounce or bust from here IMO.

COTY getting particularly destroyed today for me.

[sokoloka]

ATEC Announces Preliminary 2021 Revenue Results and 2022 Guidance

January 10, 2022
Full-year 2021 U.S. organic revenue growth of 50% to 51% driven primarily by accelerated PTP™ adoption
Fourth quarter 2021 U.S. organic revenue growth of 41% to 42%
Full-year 2022 total revenue expected to grow approximately 26% to $305 million
CARLSBAD, Calif.--(BUSINESS WIRE)-- Alphatec Holdings, Inc. (Nasdaq: ATEC), a provider of innovative solutions dedicated to revolutionizing the approach to spine surgery, announced today preliminary revenue results for the fourth quarter and full year ended December 31, 2021, and provided estimates for its full-year 2022 revenue guidance.

https://investors.alphatecspine.com/...e/default.aspx

:)

[vipereaper30]

Put Corvus back on your radar gents. http://investor.corvuspharma.com/

Went from undervalued to overvalued quickly with a spike at the end of last year. Now back down to start testing lows again. Still very early and highly speculative with a nice pipeline and potential for return.

I'd wager most of us aren't looking to increase the riskier areas of our portfolios, but if you are looking to do so this may be a good fit. I'm loading up again down here.

[huncho]

Originally Posted by logo

SPY at 100d MA (455), Russell at its support that has held the past year, DJI at 50d MA, Nasdaq at its 200d MA. Zooming out, there is still uptrend for all except Russell which has been flat. It’s bounce or bust from here IMO.

COTY getting particularly destroyed today for me.

still optimistic for a bounce this week. if pelosi isn't selling i'm not selling lol

[vipereaper30]

Wow, what a day!

For anyone in the financial industry I have some questions and am in need of advice. Looking to re-brand and work in this field in my next phase of life.

If you work in the field and are interested in mentoring a bit please send me a PM. Thank you!

[huncho]

nasdaq almost green at close...what a rollercoaster. damage was still done for all but a few stocks unfortunately

[Zack21]

Very helpful explanation of Volatility Decay 7sins. Thanks again!

[7sins]

Just my .02 here but I think you guys are putting too much emphasis on the FED. EVEN if they do raise rates 4x this year, each at .25%, that is only 1 point move in the FED funds rate. The market can easily absorb this, perhaps not for high multiple P/S and high growth stocks where FINALLY fundamentals matter. Also remember it is a PROJECTION, this does not mean they will actually move forward with hiking rates, they can become more dovish as inflation qualms and supply chain bottlenecks dissipate.

This chart shows FED funds rate back to the 50s. I would focus more on the last 10-15 years. Right prior to COVID hitting FED funds rate was 2.5% and prior to financial crisis was 5%. We are talking about a 1% FED funds rate in an environment where GDP will be substantially higher than it was during either of those two aforementioned FED hike periods. As I posted before, stocks do fine when rates rise via the second chart below. Be selective and take advantage of dislocations as they arise.

Just some food for thought.




PS good news for SEAT, Vivid announced its 100 millionth ticket sale: https://newsfilter.io/a/d2b7ef3fc775...18d99645943c4c. Should be a great upcoming quarter.

[vipereaper30]

BCRX is continuing its great run from yesterday and the JPM healthcare conference presentation was outstanding. Please do give it a listen if you are invested or even considering investing here. It's appx 30 min and you owe it to yourself to hear direct from Stonehouse.

I know a lot of times it feels tough to enter on the upswing or after large gains. This company has outstanding long term potential and the recent gains still don't come close to reflecting full valuation. Now projecting $1B in peak sales from Orladeyo with 9930 "pipeline in a molecule" emerging from the wings.

—Following doses of 400 mg bid or 500 mg bid of oral BCX9930, 100 percent of treatment-naïve patients and 83 percent of C5 inadequate response patients were transfusion-free—
—Mean hemoglobin increased from 8.3 g/dL to 11.8 g/dL in treatment-naïve patients and from 8.9 g/dL to 12.2 g/dL in C5 inadequate response patients, demonstrating control of hemolysis—
—Pivotal trials in PNH and proof of concept trials in renal complement-mediated disease expected to begin in 2H 2021 —

[logo]

Originally Posted by vipereaper30

BCRX is continuing its great run from yesterday and the JPM healthcare conference presentation was outstanding. Please do give it a listen if you are invested or even considering investing here. It's appx 30 min and you owe it to yourself to hear direct from Stonehouse.

I know a lot of times it feels tough to enter on the upswing or after large gains. This company has outstanding long term potential and the recent gains still don't come close to reflecting full valuation. Now projecting $1B in peak sales from Orladeyo with 9930 "pipeline in a molecule" emerging from the wings.

—Following doses of 400 mg bid or 500 mg bid of oral BCX9930, 100 percent of treatment-naïve patients and 83 percent of C5 inadequate response patients were transfusion-free—
—Mean hemoglobin increased from 8.3 g/dL to 11.8 g/dL in treatment-naïve patients and from 8.9 g/dL to 12.2 g/dL in C5 inadequate response patients, demonstrating control of hemolysis—
—Pivotal trials in PNH and proof of concept trials in renal complement-mediated disease expected to begin in 2H 2021 —

I’m not invested so I do not know what their sales approach is, but interesting they are projecting $1B sales from Orladeyo. Hereditary angioedema is not that common, likely less than 7000 cases in the US. So if they have targeted this small group, I presume the annual cost of the drug is very, very high to offset their development costs and to get to $1B in sales, even with a high degree of market penetration. I’m curious if they have described details on what degree of market share they can obtain based on their pricing model? There is no other maintenance therapy for hereditary angioedema (only rescue therapy), but not all patients are severe enough to need regular maintenance therapy depending on the cost. Interesting drug for sure.

PNH is quite rare, even more rare than hereditary angioedema (it’s great they are doing work on rare disease, big pharma doesn’t often do it because it’s not worth their cost). Had a patient back in medical school with PNH. I think they got eculizumab, which was a ~$500k/year drug at the time.

[logo]

Originally Posted by 7sins

Just my .02 here but I think you guys are putting too much emphasis on the FED. EVEN if they do raise rates 4x this year, each at .25%, that is only 1 point move in the FED funds rate. The market can easily absorb this, perhaps not for high multiple P/S and high growth stocks where FINALLY fundamentals matter. Also remember it is a PROJECTION, this does not mean they will actually move forward with hiking rates, they can become more dovish as inflation qualms and supply chain bottlenecks dissipate.

This chart shows FED funds rate back to the 50s. I would focus more on the last 10-15 years. Right prior to COVID hitting FED funds rate was 2.5% and prior to financial crisis was 5%. We are talking about a 1% FED funds rate in an environment where GDP will be substantially higher than it was during either of those two aforementioned FED hike periods. As I posted before, stocks do fine when rates rise via the second chart below. Be selective and take advantage of dislocations as they arise.

Just some food for thought.




PS good news for SEAT, Vivid announced its 100 millionth ticket sale: https://newsfilter.io/a/d2b7ef3fc775...18d99645943c4c. Should be a great upcoming quarter.

Agree with you on overall rate, and on rate changes. So much of what we are seeing in inflation is directly tied to supply chains imo - as that resolves, I suspect we see everything level out.

[huncho]

Originally Posted by 7sins

Just my .02 here but I think you guys are putting too much emphasis on the FED. EVEN if they do raise rates 4x this year, each at .25%, that is only 1 point move in the FED funds rate. The market can easily absorb this, perhaps not for high multiple P/S and high growth stocks where FINALLY fundamentals matter. Also remember it is a PROJECTION, this does not mean they will actually move forward with hiking rates, they can become more dovish as inflation qualms and supply chain bottlenecks dissipate.

This chart shows FED funds rate back to the 50s. I would focus more on the last 10-15 years. Right prior to COVID hitting FED funds rate was 2.5% and prior to financial crisis was 5%. We are talking about a 1% FED funds rate in an environment where GDP will be substantially higher than it was during either of those two aforementioned FED hike periods. As I posted before, stocks do fine when rates rise via the second chart below. Be selective and take advantage of dislocations as they arise.

Just some food for thought.




PS good news for SEAT, Vivid announced its 100 millionth ticket sale: https://newsfilter.io/a/d2b7ef3fc775...18d99645943c4c. Should be a great upcoming quarter.

i guess it's just weird to see such a drastic reaction to such small (and possible) changes. i know the market is on thin ice lately so it's very overreactive so that probably explains it and that's why i still think it's a sell the rumors kind of thing, and i think we still move forward once this short term pain ends

[vipereaper30]

Originally Posted by logo

I’m curious if they have described details on what degree of market share they can obtain based on their pricing model?

This $1B figure is new guidance so there's a lot to unpack and data required to support and demonstrate this continued path. E.g. If we see $250M in sales this next year it will support the current momentum, but its not a simple answer. How many patients are switching from current treatment? How many patients are getting the efficacy to stay on the treatment?

Taking pills is an easier form of prophylaxis but that is an overly simplistic picture. The drug has to work.

Their current pricing is close to $500k and you are aware that many of these rare disease treatments come with large price tags. BCX9930 is starting in PNH but will expand across multiple complement-mediated diseases.

As a stand alone there is the potential for tremendous value here. But I do worry (1st world problem) that big pharma will pick them off to fill out their portfolio. If so the return will be great, but not nearly as great as if, on their own, they can demonstrate additional potential through trial advancement in 9930 as well as other compounds in pre-clinicals.

To your point about market share, here is one of their slides on the topic from this latest presentation:

[7sins]

Good news for us riding the TREB wave, read through this 8k posted here yesterday: https://last10k.com/sec-filings/treb...&utm_term=treb

Most notably: with certain modifications resulting in an increase to (x) the aggregate maximum Seller Backstop Amount from $45.0 million to $50.0 million and (y) the Cannae Backstop Amount from $200.0 million to $250.0 million.

This is meaningful, 50m uptick in backstop from Cannae, which is now a $650M total backstop for TREB. Quite rare for a SPAC and will limit the likelihood of declining post merger. Reminder merger vote is next week. I have been averaging the way down, bought more treb-wt today at $1.19. IMO, good opportunity here for the warrants at $1.20 for a company with $900M rev, $200M profit, 26% gross margin, $111M in EBITDA, 1.1x valuation, and growing at 40%. Remember warrants are like a 5 year call option with 11.50 strike, could be a great long term play. Peter and I posted a bunch of slides on this a few pages back.

Originally Posted by huncho

i guess it's just weird to see such a drastic reaction to such small (and possible) changes. i know the market is on thin ice lately so it's very overreactive so that probably explains it and that's why i still think it's a sell the rumors kind of thing, and i think we still move forward once this short term pain ends

It was a 25bp move YTD in the 10yr treasury, the worst start for the bond market in 49 years. It isn't that rates are moving up, it is the velocity of rate movement. That is why you saw, IMO, an over-reaction to the equity market.

[shaunylw]

I don’t have anything to add but as a 35 year old finally making some solid financial moves, this thread is great. Thanks all!

[logo]

BBIG.....

[MrGoat]

Originally Posted by logo

BBIG.....

Shhhhhhhh. Don’t jinx it.


Sent from my Apple privacy invasion product

[huncho]

Originally Posted by logo

BBIG.....

i'm afraid to say anything about it

[7sins]

Originally Posted by 7sins

What a ER from TSM, great beat on EPS and raised guidance for next year. Significant demand for 5nm chips. Going under the hood, margins at 51%! Almost 11% operating and building new plant in Japan. Also forecasting chip shortage well into 2022 https://www.investorsobserver.com/ne...inue-into-2022. Absolutely nailed this call, disappointing to see the stock only rally 2% but very confident in these trades. Look at their market share and rev, one could argue one of the most important companies in the world, no problem waiting this one out.

Originally Posted by 7sins

Solid 35% 1 month move from high 1.40s. Merger is Oct 19th, been a lot of great recent press on Vivid Seats as well, including this one from IPOEdge: https://ipo-edge.com/investors-seeki...rowd-shows-up/. Some highlights, notably relative EBIDTA value:

Horizon Acquisition Corporation (ticker: HZAC) merging with Vivid Seats in SPAC deal
Ticker will automatically flip from HZAC to SEAT and trade on Nasdaq after deal closes later in October
Vivid Seats offers secondary market for ticket buyers and sellers, taking a fee from each sale
Company swung back to profits earlier in 2021 as fans returned to live events in droves
Vivid Seats will pick up $750 million in cash from transaction regardless of any redemptions
Cash will leave Vivid Seats with a clean balance sheet for marketing or potential M&A
CEO Stan Chia brings serious experience from Amazon and COO role at GrubHub
Clear plan to boost brand awareness, including partnerships with Disney’s ESPN, DraftKings
Rewards program has proven effective, driving massive shift from web to app customers
Rival StubHub has been held back by antitrust issues in Viagogo merger, likely very indebted
Vivid Seats trades at 14x 2022 Ebitda, well beneath comps Live Nation, Etsy, DoorDash
Vivid Seats’ projections appear too low, given 2Q beat and upward revisions at peers


Right there with yah, surprised we aren't seeing much of a run into ER, I plan to add today to positions and tomorrow with you if it dips. Looks like options are pricing a +-4% move for ER.

EDIT added to existing 2023 positions and opened 2024 $110c for a nice 830 day runway to a $130 BE - decent +0.61 delta on this one, not terrible.

Closing the loop here on $TSM for those who hopped on this trade with me, we went sideways for a few months on the back end of 2021 with entry at $110, but been a killer few weeks with a blowout earnings from TSM today. Our 2023 $115c, bought for $17 rallied today to $34 as the stock broke past $140. Nice 100% gain here in 5 months. I've exited this entire position to begin re-stocking cash. Keeping our 2024 $110C to ride for this year, current 115% gain there, will look to trim some of that exposure if it keeps running.

[7sins]

Originally Posted by MrGoat

Shhhhhhhh. Don’t jinx it.


Sent from my Apple privacy invasion product

Originally Posted by logo

BBIG.....

Originally Posted by huncho

i'm afraid to say anything about it

whatever you guys are doing, keep doing it this will be 100M+ vol day

[MrGoat]

Originally Posted by 7sins

whatever you guys are doing, keep doing it this will be 100M+ vol day

I’d prefer you not ask who is who in this video.




Sent from my Apple privacy invasion product

[chsu74]

You guys rock. The volume today was more than the float!

Originally Posted by logo

BBIG.....

Originally Posted by MrGoat

Shhhhhhhh. Don’t jinx it.


Sent from my Apple privacy invasion product

Originally Posted by huncho

i'm afraid to say anything about it

[chsu74]

This one is boring and an old man stock. Just want to mention VIAC closed above its 100 day MA which is a sign of money flowing there on a day like today. Still trading at 7PE and they sold their extra studio in Hollywood for a few billion putting more cash on their balance sheet. All of their new shows released are well received and staying on their Paramount app. Been adding shares and $30C leaps the past two weeks. The $45C leaps I held from last year is looking better and better though still very much underwater.