When did Rolex AD MSRP availability issues start?

[1sttimerolex]

I would say 2018. Most rolex dealers had their displays full until 2017 (except for the ss ceramic daytona), but 2018, the sports models started appearing less...although I did get my ss sub in 2019 almost immediately (less than 2 weeks after stopping by my now-closed AD).

[VegasBaby]

Originally Posted by RolexSimon

Daytona - 10 years ago. Daydate 2021.

10 years ago?? You think you could have walked into an AD and picked up an SS Daytona 10 years ago??? They've been hard to get from an AD for over 30 years.......since early 90's. Not as tough as today but a hard to get nonetheless

[258Pearl]

Originally Posted by Feb_29

I think it's you who confused. COVID started late 2019. But hey, this spread can be call a Rolex virus.

[YoyoGift8]

Originally Posted by tqmb79

late 2017 / early 2018

+1

[MAINEZX10]

Originally Posted by VegasBaby

10 years ago?? You think you could have walked into an AD and picked up an SS Daytona 10 years ago??? They've been hard to get from an AD for over 30 years.......since early 90's. Not as tough as today but a hard to get nonetheless

The Daytona caught my eye in 2006. In 2006,07 & 08. They were very hard to pick up at an AD. 2009 they more a little bit more available due to economic times.

[al1786]

Visited my local AD in Edinburgh in 2014 and enquired about a steel Daytona, was advised it was a wait list piece. I did not ask to be added to waitlist.
Fast forward to 2015 when I was overseas in Saudi Arabia went to the AD in Mecca and asked about steel Daytonas. The sales associate brought out a black dial and white dial for me to see. He then proceeded to ask me "how many of each dial colour I would like to purchase". Only the one black dial for me I replied.
Watch bracelet was adjusted and handed over with coffin container, both tags, bezel protector and stickers in place.
A discount of 1000 SAR was also offered if payment was made in cash, decided to pay by card.
The exchange rate at the time was favourable and saved me around £500 against UK list.
Went on a waitlist in the UK for a Daytona ceramic in 2016, still waiting for this- although this AD has supplied me with a few other hot pieces since.

[Roli4life]

2017

[Xerxes77]

In 2017 when Rolex launch steel blue SkyDweller I found it available in the store.
In 2018 they say one year for blue and few months for other models..
I think in 2016 slowly start available of different steel watches to be a problem but on grey market it was only 2-3 thousand euro more …. Not like today 3xMRSP

[Chester01]

Originally Posted by RolexSimon

Daytona - 10 years ago. Daydate 2021.

LOl. There was a 4 year wait list for the SS daytona back in 1999/2000 in my neck of the woods.

[Oystersteel92]

Originally Posted by MAINEZX10

The Daytona caught my eye in 2006. In 2006,07 & 08. They were very hard to pick up at an AD. 2009 they more a little bit more available due to economic times.

This. I dropped into my local AD for the first time around 09-10 and while it wasn't in the (very full) case, they offered me a SS Daytona from the vault. I remember during the mortgage crisis that SS Daytonas were plentiful on grey dealer websites. That's actually how I knew the economy had got real bad, when Daytona prices started dropping as people were selling to raise cash. If you had money, it was a great time to buy a watch.

[watchwatcher]

I'm going with the late 2017 replies, at least from my own experience, anyway.

IMO, the BLNR was the harbinger of things to come. The GMT up to that point had always traded around 5's/low 6's. Then the BLNR showed up and pretty much stayed steady in the 8's, which was interesting, as in those days, there was no shortage (to speak of). Then the 116500 came along, prices in general started taking a sharp turn towards crazy town, and well, wouldn't you know it? The supply started drying up. And...the rest is history.

[Soultime]

All these posts and guesswork.

It makes more sense to read a thread about it from the time it happened (started in the UK in 2016).

https://www.rolexforums.com/showthread.php?t=505118

So we don't need any more guesses. Just read the thread.

[daveswordfish]

Just checked my notes. In March of 2016, I visited a family owned local AD. I had been in a couple of times to talk watches and browse, but had never bought anything from them.

Not only did they have everything in the case (including a Hulk and a white Daytona) I was offered between 8% and 19% on the models I was thinking about, including a YM, Milgauss, DJ2, and sub.

Good old days!


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[Tell44]

I live in the DC area, and the last time I saw a Sub in a case was August of 2017

[adawil2002]

March 11, 2020 is when the "shortage" started in earnest in the New England.

[Gekota]

Originally Posted by GB-man

I can only speak for the United States but 2012-2016 was a fantastic time to collect watches.

Everything was available. The hardest to land retail were the 5711 blue and then BLNR. Either could be had for 1-2 k premium NIB. Daytonas were 11-12k NIB. 5711 25k. Anything PM Rolex I could have 25% off and that would land you in the good graces of any AD. Aquanauts and other stainless Rolex discounts were there for the buyer who had some hustle. Nobody went to the AP boutique because they didn’t discount. Tiffany had aquanauts and nautilus (not 5711) in the case for sale. 15400 were 12k 15202 were 18k. You could trade a sandwich and coke for an FPJ.

That was truly the golden era when it came to availability of the modern pieces.

[Wahlberg]

Originally Posted by afmars

2021 - PM sports models gone, but still some OPs, DD 36, dateJusts in display cases

OPs disappeared when the old line got discontinued and the new line came out, so that's september 2020.


I haven't seen DJs back in 2020 either.

[cgaites]

My experience is that prior to mid-2018, Rolex sport model availability looked a lot like Omega Speedmaster availability looks today. Most were readily available at MSRP, or even with small discounts, with no more that a couple of months wait. Very similar to a standard Speedy Pro today. A few hot models - Pepsis, Daytonas - were very hard to get and traded at significant premiums on the secondary market. Very similar to Snoopys and 321s today.

By 2019, most Rolex sports models were "waitlist" pieces, with most of those waitlists being "don't call us, we'll call you" situations.

Since Covid started in 2020 the shortage has slowly but surely spread to nearly all Rolex models.

[VogelPhoenix]

Originally Posted by VegasBaby

10 years ago?? You think you could have walked into an AD and picked up an SS Daytona 10 years ago??? They've been hard to get from an AD for over 30 years.......since early 90's. Not as tough as today but a hard to get nonetheless

We walked into an AD in early 2014, asked for a Daytona and purchased the white dial 116520 they had received in a shipment earlier that day. A different AD in the same city also could have provided one with a short wait. After refund of the local VAT this was actually a few hundred dollar cheaper than in the US.

OTOH, I have been on the "waiting list" for a 41mm Sub from the same AD since the day it was announced. Times have changed.

[dEagle]

Pretty interesting read here. I started collecting watches only from 2019. Having seen the Rolex world only in the last 3 years, it feels odd to imagine of a time when this craze wasn't there.

[JSCP]

after 2018 and Nautilus and Aquanaut way before

[afmars]

Originally Posted by Wahlberg

OPs disappeared when the old line got discontinued and the new line came out, so that's september 2020.


I haven't seen DJs back in 2020 either.

Of course these things will vary a lot AD to AD and region to region. I am mostly speaking generally from my experience at local ADs in Arizona.

I remember a visit to my AD in April 2021 where (in the case) they had 3-4x op34, a DD 36, 4-5x datejust (blend of 36 and 41) and a TT seadweller.

YMMV


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[ArtNouveau]

Originally Posted by Soultime

All these posts and guesswork.

It makes more sense to read a thread about it from the time it happened (started in the UK in 2016).

https://www.rolexforums.com/showthread.php?t=505118

So we don't need any more guesses. Just read the thread.

Interesting read but it only seems to support that the UK was the first to experience it. From my own experience here in the US, the late 2017/18 timeframe is what I saw.

[seabreeze60]

I didn’t start collecting unit 2016. I noticed the trend in 2018.

[stark1]

All I know is that I was offered a Sub date at a discount back around 2015-16. Never bought it since I thought it would always be readily available at retail. Then I got totally sidetracked by developing an interest in men's dress shoes and started collecting those. When I focused back in on the watch market during Covid, I initially couldn't believe the higher-than-MSRP trend that became commonplace, especially with Rolex and the like. It really took me a while to wrap my head around this concept and come to terms with the new landscape that took shape.

[Ensign]

Originally Posted by GB-man

They absolutely were for the tiny niche of nerds buying them.

Yup - I felt like a nerd shopping at ADs back then in the 90s. I didn’t trust the few greys and online sources. Discounts were offered by desperate SAs left and right.

We had a strange attachment to the brand back then. We were spending thousands on mechanical watches when our peers were were wearing cheap quartz watches and buying German sports sedans or taking trips. There wasn’t the internet community, of course. If you were deep in the hobby you got those magazines. But Rolex was more personal back then; I don’t remember wearing it to get noticed. Your Rolex was worn under a sleeve and you admired how robust the design and engineering was.

[Soultime]

Originally Posted by ArtNouveau

Interesting read but it only seems to support that the UK was the first to experience it. From my own experience here in the US, the late 2017/18 timeframe is what I saw.

There are some posts from US members too.

[uhren917]

Originally Posted by Tqmb79

Late 2017 / early 2018

Yup! In early 2018, SAs were telling me by summer inventory levels would return. They were wrong. Discounts slowly dried up, then availability.

[impactplayer]

Originally Posted by cvo

What triggered it 2018? Basically, what changed then?

FOMO. I think the scarcity of the new Daytona and inability for people to buy that watch caused them to look at other Rolex watches and other brands. Rather than paying a markup on the Daytona, you could buy a Royal Oak for example. Then the cycle repeated itself over and over to the point where we are today.

[atxwatch]

I bought a 114060 in 2016 right after Basel and at the time, BenBridge here in Austin had plenty of Rolex in the store. I remember seeing Explorers galore, GMTs, DJs, OPs, Milgauss etc. But even then, the subs were going fast. I walked in and they had one that he had just received...offered it to me in the morning and I said I needed to talk it over with the wife and I would call back. I called him later in the afternoon and the watch had already sold. They ended up requesting one from a different boutique in the chain and I got it several days later. Zero discount though (and I tried). So I paid full boat. Fantastic watch. It's the maxi case/maxi dial and to this day, it is still my favorite sub variant I have seen. 6 years later, it runs at roughly -1.5 sec/day.