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Old 11 April 2022, 07:26 AM   #151
Kevin of Larchmont
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Originally Posted by PO 2500D View Post
As I've posted on the thread before any grey worth their salt will be opening the case and know what they are looking at.

However I very much doubt most retail customers looking at either of those fakes in isolation from a real one using just their eyes would be able to tell even with a loupe they wouldn't know what to look for, so the opportunity for fraud is there.

That video is a side by side under a macro and he knows which is the fake which in a way is misleading because you watch it thinking oh yeah I could tell..but you probably couldn't in a real life situation. (I know I couldn't)

We are very much in the dealers hands in terms of expertise & honesty when buying second hand.
So we agree on the question of how could the trusted seller not tell and furthermore we agree that it’s their job to tell. They too are the purchaser of that watch, they have the tools and incentive and motivation and the inventory for comparison to discern real from fake because their credibility is at stake. Of course the FOMO bandwagoneer retail customer will struggle but we’re not talking about that person, we are talking about the trusted seller who buys and sells watches for a living. This is why they’re trusted.
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Old 11 April 2022, 07:34 AM   #152
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Thank you for these links, I had never seen them. I watched the first one about the Daytona and the narrator clearly lists and illustrates all of the distinct differences between a “super-clone” and an original. So many here ask the rhetorical question how could a gray or even an AD, who have no doubt handled thousands of watches, tell the difference between a fake and an original when based on this video the differences appear to be both numerous and clear. So if the seller is truly trusted and experienced and honorable and has an economic and reputational incentive to get it right then how could they be so easily hoodwinked?
The narrator does do a great job, albeit the benefit of having a genuine one next to it, to make comparison easy.
Still, the flaws are far from obvious or glaring; these watches are not the sketchy Canal St fakes of 5 years ago.
This video is nearly 3 years old. The maker of that particular fake has gone out of business and been replaced by others.

The flaw in your argument is this:

"So if the seller is truly trusted and experienced and honorable and has an economic and reputational incentive to get it right then how could they be so easily hoodwinked?"

You're looking solely through the lens of sellers you trust. That represents a small fraction of the used watch market and we are talking beyond that.
A lot of sellers are like that.
Others will try to be honest and represent the watch as they believe it is, but not open it, nor have a real expert* on hand.
And, wherever there's a ton of profit, there's villainy. So there will be those intentionally scamming.

* there are "experts" and there're are experts. Outside of RSC, and a few trained independents I don't know who sets that bar, nor what framed certificate I should be looking for on their wall...
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Old 11 April 2022, 07:48 AM   #153
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Possible doesn’t equal Probable.
Favorite line in the entire thread. Coupled with a seller’s reputation and proper research on the buyer’s part, I see the likelihood of buying a fake very low.


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Old 11 April 2022, 07:52 AM   #154
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They actually had a couple of watches in Aspens AD a week ago.

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Oh why didn't I think of that!

I'll just swing by tomorrow and purchase the watch I wanted.
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Old 11 April 2022, 07:56 AM   #155
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So much speculation and conspiracy theories here with words like "super clone" yet no examples of such a thing. I just did a Google search and couldn't find a "replica" Rolex for more than $300. You cannot recreate a Rolex that would ever appear to pass as a real watch to anyone in the know, especially a new modern Rolex. Perhaps a scammer could play with a vintage watch which is a whole different issue. You buy the seller because you trust they are not a criminal or a scammer. As someone rightly stated earlier, it you being the victim of fraud is something that would devastate you, don't do it. Thought never crossed my mind to wait two years and kiss some AD's ass... I saw what I wanted and had it 48 hours later. If someone can post pictures of a "super clone", I'd love to see one... of course it's likely just a picture of a real watch.


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oh. Well, case closed.

If you couldn't find a fake Rolex on Google, selling for more than $300 then maybe you're not using genuine Google ?
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Old 11 April 2022, 08:48 AM   #156
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So much speculation and conspiracy theories here with words like "super clone" yet no examples of such a thing. I just did a Google search and couldn't find a "replica" Rolex for more than $300. You cannot recreate a Rolex that would ever appear to pass as a real watch to anyone in the know, especially a new modern Rolex. Perhaps a scammer could play with a vintage watch which is a whole different issue. You buy the seller because you trust they are not a criminal or a scammer. As someone rightly stated earlier, it you being the victim of fraud is something that would devastate you, don't do it. Thought never crossed my mind to wait two years and kiss some AD's ass... I saw what I wanted and had it 48 hours later. If someone can post pictures of a "super clone", I'd love to see one... of course it's likely just a picture of a real watch.


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I read that and laughed out loud...I'd waited 20+ years for an SS Daytona, probably started wanting the watch when it was a 5 digit, few times I enquired, laughter, wait 7 years bud...went through that several times.

Finally decided I was going to do it, member here took me through the process of finding a Trusted Seller...and what made me laugh, and this still blows my mind 4 years later, 31 hours hours later the black dial 116520 that I wanted was on my wrist!

Two other watches I bought from Trusted Sellers went in for service, each time the technician came out and said they were in pristine condition, and in the case of my 18238, caseback never opened and in basically "new" condition, it had been a "safe Queen".
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Old 11 April 2022, 09:29 AM   #157
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Originally Posted by asiparks View Post

The flaw in your argument is this:

"So if the seller is truly trusted and experienced and honorable and has an economic and reputational incentive to get it right then how could they be so easily hoodwinked?"

You're looking solely through the lens of sellers you trust. That represents a small fraction of the used watch market and we are talking beyond that.
A lot of sellers are like that.
HA! That is not a flaw in my argument, that IS my argument. What we are talking about here is trusted sellers. If one buys from Rando Joe’s Luxury Watches online then they are destined to get bit. Trust is earned. Caveat emptor.
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Old 11 April 2022, 12:32 PM   #158
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First you have to realize the Grey Market is only as reliable as their quality control, ie, do they check every watch the same as you or I would with a reputable, knowledgeable Rolex AD checker. I know some people who say they visited their AD and had the watch authenticated. The same way the AD authenticates the watch is the same way the reputable GM dealers do. The knowledge and skill that it takes to know the difference isn't only at the AD. Others, perhaps the same people that did that work at the AD are the ones doing it at the reputable GM dealers. Learning to be good at knowing the difference between a fake and a real Rolex, is in the details and knowledge acquired by more people than we might think. If a GM dealer gets his watch from the back door of an AD, and the AD got the watch from Rolex,,,it is authentic. That is the way some on this forum are saying the GM is getting watches. I have little concern, buying from reputable GM sources, because of what I have stated above, plus I personally check each watch with the knowledge I have. I had only one watch that I thought might have been fake, purchased from a GM dealer west of the Mississippi, because of scratches completely around the rehaut, I took detailed pictures with a Nikon D500 and a 200mm Micro lens and sent the pics to one place, and described the problem with a QC person at Rolex HQ in New York, also sent pics to my AD none said the watch was fake, but the Rolex QC person at New York did say someone got into the watch after it left Rolex and did the damage. The manager and I were unable to come to a amicable arrangement to rectify the problem which led to me filing a dispute with Pay Pal, and after some time I did get most of my money refunded.I will say that I had purchased a Tag Heuer at the same time from this same GM Business, that was perfect, exactly as described. I realize even AD's can have a watch returned within a day or two and perhaps it has been worn and scratched...as long as they disclose the situation I would be ok with purchasing even that watch if it is one I really like.

Last edited by daysky1; 11 April 2022 at 12:57 PM.. Reason: I named a Business and the name of the manager, don't want problems from them
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Old 11 April 2022, 12:39 PM   #159
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Anyone claiming that Tiffany OP is proof that super fakes can fool experts is making the wrong assumptions. It was an obvious fake that we were able to identify with pictures, it was likely sold with malicious intent.
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Old 11 April 2022, 04:23 PM   #160
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How can you really trust that a grey market Rolex is authentic?

So much paranoia in this thread. Of all the stories that come out of this forum and other various watch places and a story about a fake being sold by a known dealer happening literally almost never I’d imagine you have a better chance being struck by lighting several times than buying a fake from a reputable dealer. Chances probably like .000001% or something. I also wonder how y’all even get out of bed in the morning or get into a car and drive?

And a “super clone” rep movement won’t last “5 years” until it’s noticed. Even the best clones are still awfully put together, over oiled, low quality parts, bad machining, under pressure tested if at all. These watches won’t last long. Even the best of the best won’t last long without a good service+pressure test after it’s sent from China. So to imagine there’s thousands of people out there walking around with clones unknowingly purchased for $20k+ is a real stretch.

And the guys saying “I only buy from an AD” all I can say is you sound extremely arrogant at this point in time. Tons of ADs have had their status stripped from them the past few years. If you don’t have a 10+ year relationship, since way before empty cases, and bought tons of other junk jewelry/watches over that time frame, your chances of getting any Rolex these days are about as good as winning the lottery.

So grey market is a must for some of us to enjoy these time pieces before we die. Even for some of the most wealthy people.
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Old 11 April 2022, 04:27 PM   #161
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so much paranoia in this thread. Of all the stories that come out of this forum and other various watch places and a story about a fake being sold by a known dealer happening literally almost never i’d imagine you have a better chance being struck by lighting several times than buying a fake from a reputable dealer. Chances probably like .000001% or something. I also wonder how y’all even get out of bed in the morning or get into a car and drive?

And a “super clone” rep movement won’t last “5 years” until it’s noticed. Even the best clones are still awfully put together, over oiled, low quality parts, bad machining, under pressure tested if at all. These watches won’t last long. Even the best of the best won’t last long without a good service+pressure test after it’s sent from china. So to imagine there’s thousands of people out there walking around with clones unknowingly purchased for $20k+ is a real stretch.

And the guys saying “i only buy from an ad” all i can say is you sound extremely arrogant at this point in time. Tons of ads have had their status stripped from them the past few years. If you don’t have a 10+ year relationship, since way before empty cases, and bought tons of other junk jewelry/watches over that time frame, your chances of getting any rolex these days are about as good as winning the lottery.

So grey market is a must for some of us to enjoy these time pieces before we die. Even for some of the most wealthy people.

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Old 11 April 2022, 06:04 PM   #162
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I did not state that there was a "significant" chance. just greater than 0. I also said I would buy again from the trusted dealers on here, because the odds are stacked heavily in my favor. However I do not assume that how/why/from whom I buy is the default for all the other people also buying a used luxury watch.
Let us also not assume that everyone knows what a real box, real paper and real card should look like.
Is it implausible, in your mind, that the buyer of such a package, simply hasn't yet discovered that they are a victim ?
greater than zero chance?! and that's what you are talking about all along which makes you feel buying from a grey dealer is not safe? then how about chances of buying a watch from an AD and got rob walking out the door? let me tell you it's definitely greater than zero! what are you going to do about it? lol.
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Old 11 April 2022, 08:14 PM   #163
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So much paranoia in this thread. Of all the stories that come out of this forum and other various watch places and a story about a fake being sold by a known dealer happening literally almost never I’d imagine you have a better chance being struck by lighting several times than buying a fake from a reputable dealer. Chances probably like .000001% or something. I also wonder how y’all even get out of bed in the morning or get into a car and drive?

And a “super clone” rep movement won’t last “5 years” until it’s noticed. Even the best clones are still awfully put together, over oiled, low quality parts, bad machining, under pressure tested if at all. These watches won’t last long. Even the best of the best won’t last long without a good service+pressure test after it’s sent from China. So to imagine there’s thousands of people out there walking around with clones unknowingly purchased for $20k+ is a real stretch.

And the guys saying “I only buy from an AD” all I can say is you sound extremely arrogant at this point in time. Tons of ADs have had their status stripped from them the past few years. If you don’t have a 10+ year relationship, since way before empty cases, and bought tons of other junk jewelry/watches over that time frame, your chances of getting any Rolex these days are about as good as winning the lottery.

So grey market is a must for some of us to enjoy these time pieces before we die. Even for some of the most wealthy people.
I have a very good relationship with Tourneau in NYC. Since 1996. I also have a very good relationship with a dealer on 47th street. Bought more Grey than not. And now I even bought one via ebay. But I prefer AD. Obviously.

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Old 12 April 2022, 03:51 AM   #164
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I have heard that the best fakes today are so good that even a seasoned watchmaker could be fooled. My guess is that it may be more fakes in circulation than we may anticipate.
I always try to do my homework and buy the buyer when shopping for (preowned) watches. But of course, the only real guarantee is when buying from an AD.
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Old 12 April 2022, 04:04 AM   #165
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greater than zero chance?! and that's what you are talking about all along which makes you feel buying from a grey dealer is not safe? then how about chances of buying a watch from an AD and got rob walking out the door? let me tell you it's definitely greater than zero! what are you going to do about it? lol.
Odd that that's your conclusion when literally in the lines above that you quoted me:
I did not state that there was a "significant" chance. just greater than 0. I also said I would buy again from the trusted dealers on here, because the odds are stacked heavily in my favor.

The OPs question was
How can you really trust that a grey market Rolex is authentic?

Many of you have reframed that solely from the POV that you only buy from trusted sellers on this site and thus have no concerns, which doesn't really answer the question.
You may say that if you buy from Rando Joe’s Luxury Watches instead of our trusted grey, you're asking for trouble, but the choice isn't, of course, as binary as that.
There are thousands of small, fairly respectable family jewelers and small dealers buying and selling luxury watches with no ill intent. Would you be confident that they have the expertise to identify the most modern and well faked 914 steel watches with cloned movements ?
If you believe that these "super clones" ( or fake Rolex over $300 ), don't actually exist, or that you'd have no trouble identifying one, fair play to you, carry on. But don't conflate your detailed knowledge of Rolex ( or other brands) with that of normal people outside of forums.

When fakes are made with the attention to detail that super clones are, it's not with the goal of impressing your mates down at the pub, they are going into circulation somewhere as genuine.......

So no, You, (people in general) can not trust that a grey market ( general second hand seller of watches ) Rolex ( or IWC, Blancpain, PAM etc ) is ( without doubt) genuine.

Has it stopped me buying used watches ?- No. I mitigate the risks, weigh the odds and, if they're in my favor, I'll buy.
Will I get taken ? Maybe.
Will I discover this straight away ?- Maybe

In the meantime, I'll do my best not to be ignorant of how well watches are being replicated, to further better my odds .
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Old 12 April 2022, 07:58 AM   #166
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And the guys saying “I only buy from an AD” all I can say is you sound extremely arrogant at this point in time. Tons of ADs have had their status stripped from them the past few years. If you don’t have a 10+ year relationship, since way before empty cases, and bought tons of other junk jewelry/watches over that time frame, your chances of getting any Rolex these days are about as good as winning the lottery.

So grey market is a must for some of us to enjoy these time pieces before we die. Even for some of the most wealthy people.

SO well put.
Another thing is, like it or not, the AD is just another "trusted seller"!
Having seen some of the scummy and underhanded moves by AD's I trust the top 5 or 6 top grey market places (NOT chrono or Ebay) more.
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Old 12 April 2022, 09:20 AM   #167
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Odd that that's your conclusion when literally in the lines above that you quoted me:
I did not state that there was a "significant" chance. just greater than 0. I also said I would buy again from the trusted dealers on here, because the odds are stacked heavily in my favor.

The OPs question was
How can you really trust that a grey market Rolex is authentic?

Many of you have reframed that solely from the POV that you only buy from trusted sellers on this site and thus have no concerns, which doesn't really answer the question.
You may say that if you buy from Rando Joe’s Luxury Watches instead of our trusted grey, you're asking for trouble, but the choice isn't, of course, as binary as that.
There are thousands of small, fairly respectable family jewelers and small dealers buying and selling luxury watches with no ill intent. Would you be confident that they have the expertise to identify the most modern and well faked 914 steel watches with cloned movements ?
If you believe that these "super clones" ( or fake Rolex over $300 ), don't actually exist, or that you'd have no trouble identifying one, fair play to you, carry on. But don't conflate your detailed knowledge of Rolex ( or other brands) with that of normal people outside of forums.

When fakes are made with the attention to detail that super clones are, it's not with the goal of impressing your mates down at the pub, they are going into circulation somewhere as genuine.......

So no, You, (people in general) can not trust that a grey market ( general second hand seller of watches ) Rolex ( or IWC, Blancpain, PAM etc ) is ( without doubt) genuine.

Has it stopped me buying used watches ?- No. I mitigate the risks, weigh the odds and, if they're in my favor, I'll buy.
Will I get taken ? Maybe.
Will I discover this straight away ?- Maybe

In the meantime, I'll do my best not to be ignorant of how well watches are being replicated, to further better my odds .
You seem to be repeating my points and then framing them as your own. It’s our job as consumers to mitigate the risk through research and knowledge of both product and seller. Those without the experience or skill to do so should tread lightly but probably won’t according to PT Barnum’s most famous axiom. In the end it comes down to a judgement call, there are no guarantees. To quote you, “You are looking solely through the lens of vendors you trust.” Well so are you when you make your calculated judgement to buy from a trusted seller after you weigh the odds. That’s all any of us can do. Your typical counter to that point seems to be ‘but there are many small sellers out there without the resources to guarantee authenticity…’. Yes, so don’t buy from them. And caveat emptor to those that choose too.
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Old 12 April 2022, 10:17 AM   #168
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I think a potentially bigger concern may be 'fake' watches that are authentic Rolex watches with dials changed to appear as a more desirable reference. This would present a situation where the watch may be more likely to be incorrectly validated as being genuine when in fact it is not 100% OEM.
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Old 12 April 2022, 12:53 PM   #169
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I fully agree that the “buy the seller” mantra should not be blindly followed. I once bought an OP with box and papers from what otherwise seemed to be an established seller on Chrono24, with an excellent reputation. Although the watch itself was legit (at least I hoped), and also the Rolex warranty card it came with, upon closer inspection the card turned out to be reused! It was the previous card design that was discontinued around 2020. Upon shining light on the card from an angle, you could see over the “serial number” and “reference number” what seemed to be letters and numbers that were no longer there! Indeed, somebody had managed to erase away the original characters and retype a fake serial number using the same exact font. And the original (erased) reference number happened to correspond to that of a Sea-Dweller (and remember, I had bought an OP!).
But what really made it clear that this was a reused card was when I called the AD listed on card to inquire about the warranty and serial number, which they were kind enough to answer for me….and the answer was a terse “NO” (it was NOT found in their records!), after telling them serial number and date of purchase shown on card. I still remember the goosebumps I got when hearing that and realizing I was a victim of a scam (at least a partial one since it only involved the card).


That immediately spoiled my confidence in the purchase, as well as served as a good school about “buying the seller”. To the seller’s credit, they did offer to either return the watch back, no questions asked, or keep the watch at an appropriate discount. Of course, the seller denied having any knowledge that this card was a “recycled” warranty card and that they would confront the original owner. But who knows if they themselves were behind this in order to add an easy $1k to the purchase price (because let’s face it, box was probably fake as well). At that point, I realized that you cannot really trust anybody 100% when it comes to buying grey. It’s a scary jungle out there.
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Old 14 April 2022, 07:49 AM   #170
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Excellent discussion on the pros and cons of satisfying one’s desires through grey market dealers. One simple commit I’d add is that there seems to be quite a few “dealers” who don’t really have any business experience acting like they do on this site. Certainly there are some great / massive companies doing excellent business but twice now I’ve inquired about purchasing a timepiece from individuals here on this site and both left me in awe from their inexperience in business. One is selling a used watch for 1000 over retail when you can call Cartier and buy it directly from them via wire transfer (zero recourse on wire transfers in case your not aware, kinda like handling someone a wad of cash) and the next guys got me sending a wire to someone else after creating an invoice without most of the vital information(routing number, account name or number). On 6-10k watches that’s a little crazy. You mostly have much more faith in humanity than I do. But we are in the used car business :)
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Old 14 April 2022, 07:49 AM   #171
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Excellent discussion on the pros and cons of satisfying one’s desires through grey market dealers. One simple commit I’d add is that there seems to be quite a few “dealers” who don’t really have any business experience acting like they do on this site. Certainly there are some great / massive companies doing excellent business but twice now I’ve inquired about purchasing a timepiece from individuals here on this site and both left me in awe from their inexperience in business. One is selling a used watch for 1000 over retail when you can call Cartier and buy it directly from them via wire transfer (zero recourse on wire transfers in case your not aware, kinda like handling someone a wad of cash) and the next guys got me sending a wire to someone else after creating an invoice without most of the vital information(routing number, account name or number). On 6-10k watches that’s a little crazy. You mostly have much more faith in humanity than I do. But we are in the used car business :)
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Old 14 April 2022, 08:28 AM   #172
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Buy the seller, not just the watch.
Frankly if you are lookingfor a current model, wait for the AD. It may take long. But, with patience, your watch will be genuine and at the retail price. If you are interested in a discontinued model, a trusted grey market dealer is really the only way to go. Look at the Rolex Boutiques section of the Classified on this forum. For ex, DavidSW.
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Old 15 April 2022, 12:13 AM   #173
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My two cents. There is hardly anything that I'm 100% sure of these days...and I would include Rolex authenticity in that grouping.

What I am 100% sure of, though, is that I would only buy a Rolex from a guy I know I can pick up the telephone, (or email lol), and he'll make right whatever concerns I have about the watch. FWIW.
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Old 15 April 2022, 12:18 AM   #174
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For me AD > Trusted Seller. With that being said we know that many Trusted sellers get their pieces from AD as well, and most if not all of the trusted sellers would back their watches... Meaning if there was a watch proven to be a fake, they would work with you to resolve the issue as they wouldn't want their name being associated with selling fakes. That will cause a loss in confidence in their product resulting in a loss in sales.
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Old 15 April 2022, 12:52 AM   #175
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I buy Rolex because I have one of those much doubted and much maligned AD “relationships.” In the absence of that relationship I wouldn’t hunt down Rolex or wait in line or pay secondary market pricing. I’ve bought older model Panerai from greys at favorable pricing. The thrill with Rolex is getting it at retail not getting it at any cost.
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Old 15 April 2022, 04:30 AM   #176
dtwer
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Quote:
Originally Posted by BLNR Nairobi View Post
There are four broad buckets of risks in my view:

1. A seller knowingly selling a product that’s not authentic.
2. A seller unknowingly selling a product that’s not authentic.
3. A seller knowingly selling a product that is authentic but stolen.
4. A seller unknowingly selling a product that is authentic but stolen.

Looking at the example you gave - an AD selling a product that’s not authentic.

The risk there is 100% limited to number 1. A ‘bad actor’ AD that tries to sell fake products. While not impossible, it is a really limited risk (for Rolex ADs) that has to be considered a very marginal concern. The other risks are zero - because ADs get all of their product from Rolex. There’s no chance of fake or stolen products getting into their supply chain, unless Rolex starts providing stolen/fake products.

So, risk is only limited to number 1, and that is a really (really) small risk!

Now let’s look at the grey market.There the risk is not just limited to number 1 - the risk is across all four buckets. All four risks are active.

You have the number 1 risk of the ‘bad actor’ knowingly selling products that are not authentic.

You also have the number 2 risk of GM dealers unknowingly selling products that are not authentic. Not every GM dealer is cut from the same cloth, and even the ‘professional’ ones can get fooled. A recent episode of CRM Jewelers had four different groups debating on the authenticity of a Daytona. An early episode had them reviewing a solid gold fake Patek (that ironically had a chrono function that didn’t work, but in an 18k case). If watch values remain high there will be more and more incentive for criminals and their like to create more credible representations that can fool MOST GM dealers.

Then there are the risks of stolen watches.

The number 3 risk of knowingly selling stolen watches is actually a limited one. Not everyone is willing to flog off stolen merchandise.

But the number 4 risk of unknowingly selling stolen watches is a real concern, and one that a ‘professional GM dealer’ cannot determine even if he/she can tell a fake watch from a mile. There are a lot of new/newer references being sold with no box and papers, and while most of those are NOT stolen definitely a number are.

Caveat emptor.

TL/DR:
- Yes, there is a risk that a genuine Rolex AD can sell you a fake watch. But it is a very small risk. Very small. Small enough to be rounded to zero. Rolex ADs will also not have ANY of the other risks (2,3,4).
- For a GM AD the risk of them knowingly selling you a fake watch can also be small if you focus on the most ‘trusted’ names that have a lot to lose. Outside those few names the risk rapidly increases. However, GM dealers also face risks from number 2,3 and 4 (risks that genuine Rolex ADs are literally at zero risk).
This is an outstanding and logical analysis, thank you. You break down how it is way more risky to buy from non-AD source.
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Old 16 April 2022, 02:56 AM   #177
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Quote:
Originally Posted by SwissmadeTexan View Post
So much paranoia in this thread. Of all the stories that come out of this forum and other various watch places and a story about a fake being sold by a known dealer happening literally almost never I’d imagine you have a better chance being struck by lighting several times than buying a fake from a reputable dealer. Chances probably like .000001% or something. I also wonder how y’all even get out of bed in the morning or get into a car and drive?

And a “super clone” rep movement won’t last “5 years” until it’s noticed. Even the best clones are still awfully put together, over oiled, low quality parts, bad machining, under pressure tested if at all. These watches won’t last long. Even the best of the best won’t last long without a good service+pressure test after it’s sent from China. So to imagine there’s thousands of people out there walking around with clones unknowingly purchased for $20k+ is a real stretch.

And the guys saying “I only buy from an AD” all I can say is you sound extremely arrogant at this point in time. Tons of ADs have had their status stripped from them the past few years. If you don’t have a 10+ year relationship, since way before empty cases, and bought tons of other junk jewelry/watches over that time frame, your chances of getting any Rolex these days are about as good as winning the lottery.

So grey market is a must for some of us to enjoy these time pieces before we die. Even for some of the most wealthy people.
I personally know a guy who bought a PM Rolex from a "trusted seller" and he found out that the links had been removed and replaced with fakes.
The fear should not be about clones, it should be buying an authentic Rolex that has been altered in some way.

There was another story on another forum years back about someone who found out that a GM piece had a fake clasp on it.
Not saying the GM dealer knows these have been altered but when buying an unworn piece from the GM you are at best the 3rd owner of the watch. That's a lot of opportunity to alter the watch.
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