Strange happenings in Hong Kong - grey market dealers

[macrowatch]

I’ve seen a few like that without cards, but also suspect on provenance in those cases. Don’t want bad karma buying stolen watch that someone else presumably loved and is missing.

[Mini2]

Lots of things happening people being offered watches which they did request and being 'surprised' with watches hopefully ill be surprised with a jumbo haha

[GW44]

Originally Posted by Mini2

It has been said this is possible as a first purchase haha

[GW44]

Originally Posted by Mini2

15510 is nice but prefer the 15500, the 37 and 38 are just too small.

You probably need to move on from the 15500. As other members have said, the odd one still trickles through but you can’t rely on that call to happen for one of the very last ones.

And if you don’t like/want the 15510 what else are you asking for that’s realistic? Out of interest, how often are you speaking to (or in touch with) your SA at AP to keep in the frame?

[Mini2]

Originally Posted by GW44

You probably need to move on from the 15500. As other members have said, the odd one still trickles through but you can’t rely on that call to happen for one of the very last ones.

And if you don’t like/want the 15510 what else are you asking for that’s realistic? Out of interest, how often are you speaking to (or in touch with) your SA at AP to keep in the frame?

Regarding speaking to him very rarely maybe every 3/4 months
For me nothings realistic

[psm11]

A used white dial 15500 just sold on MODA for $30.5k.

[jnewman311]

Originally Posted by psm11

A used white dial 15500 just sold on MODA for $30.5k.

I’m sure more will follow. Search 15500 on there and it’s crazy how much people paid for them. They’re going to be taking a cold bath if they ever sell those

[psm11]

Originally Posted by jnewman311

I’m sure more will follow. Search 15500 on there and it’s crazy how much people paid for them. They’re going to be taking a cold bath if they ever sell those

Yes, been following for months. Steady, steady decline in price. Great news if you are a collector!

[dmash]

Originally Posted by jnewman311

I’m sure more will follow. Search 15500 on there and it’s crazy how much people paid for them. They’re going to be taking a cold bath if they ever sell those

my favorite is one selling for 30.5, and same day somebody thinks theyre going to list for 39.5. the desperation is wild.

[psm11]

Originally Posted by dmash

my favorite is one selling for 30.5, and same day somebody thinks theyre going to list for 39.5. the desperation is wild.

Yeah a few weeks ago I reached out to a guy on MODA who had a 44mm ROO for sale. He wanted 29k for it when only a few days earlier one sold for 22k. I told him that and he told me the market had changed in the last couple of days and that there is no way the one that sold earlier was in nearly as good as shape as his (it was). As far as I know he still hasn't sold it at that price. The BS some of these guys spew is laughable.

[s14roller]

Originally Posted by psm11

Yeah a few weeks ago I reached out to a guy on MODA who had a 44mm ROO for sale. He wanted 29k for it when only a few days earlier one sold for 22k. I told him that and he told me the market had changed in the last couple of days and that there is no way the one that sold earlier was in nearly as good as shape as his (it was). As far as I know he still hasn't sold it at that price. The BS some of these guys spew is laughable.

To be fair, everyone will give data that is skewed to help their point, just like you did with the 30.5 sale

[Vince_76]

Originally Posted by s14roller

To be fair, everyone will give data that is skewed to help their point, just like you did with the 30.5 sale

There are a plethora of data points evincing a drop in prices. Those who take the other side of the argument (prices have stabilized/we’ve hit a bottom) are grasping at straws. And don’t quote asking prices either.

[s14roller]

Originally Posted by Vince_76

There are a plethora of data points evincing a drop in prices. Those who take the other side of the argument (prices have stabilized/we’ve hit a bottom) are grasping at straws. And don’t quote asking prices either.

That wasn’t my point - everyone knows what happened to anything of value. However, the 30.5 didn’t give any context (that overseas piece was without box or papers, missing links, and at that price sold within 1 hr).

[Vince_76]

Originally Posted by s14roller

That wasn’t my point - everyone knows what happened to anything of value. However, the 30.5 didn’t give any context (that overseas piece was without box or papers, missing links, and at that price sold within 1 hr).

What’s your point? There still is a precipitous drop in pricing and a lot of data points to substantiate that

[jnewman311]

Originally Posted by s14roller

That wasn’t my point - everyone knows what happened to anything of value. However, the 30.5 didn’t give any context (that overseas piece was without box or papers, missing links, and at that price sold within 1 hr).

a box and papers is only worth so much. once a price like that is posted other dealers see it and will sell at lower prices. the domino effect is real

[VogelPhoenix]

Originally Posted by s14roller

That wasn’t my point - everyone knows what happened to anything of value. However, the 30.5 didn’t give any context (that overseas piece was without box or papers, missing links, and at that price sold within 1 hr).

Thanks, I think that is quite useful context for the reported price!

[scottywein]

Originally Posted by jnewman311

a box and papers is only worth so much. once a price like that is posted other dealers see it and will sell at lower prices. the domino effect is real

Agreed - difference could be worth a few thousand to some people but zero to none.

If you have no plans to ever resell than it's meaningless. Over time you'll need to service and get the service card which shows authenticity. Warranty card is good if the watch is within a few years old. Once it's past the date it's worthless. Most people don't keep their watches in the original box.

[dmash]

Originally Posted by scottywein

Agreed - difference could be worth a few thousand to some people but zero to none.

If you have no plans to ever resell than it's meaningless. Over time you'll need to service and get the service card which shows authenticity. Warranty card is good if the watch is within a few years old. Once it's past the date it's worthless. Most people don't keep their watches in the original box.

I agree.

It's honestly a red flag for me though (and most guys) if a 1-2 year old watch has no box or papers. Outside of some bizarre scenario, it just makes no sense why they're gone. but again, this should only make a difference for somebody who is flipping/has no long term plans.

[jnewman311]

Originally Posted by dmash

I agree.

It's honestly a red flag for me though (and most guys) if a 1-2 year old watch has no box or papers. Outside of the bizarre OP scenario, it just makes no sense why they're gone. but again, this should only make a difference for somebody who is flipping/has no long term plans.

With AP the reason for no papers is so you can’t register it. Keeps the sellers relationship safe with ad so it seems

[dmash]

Originally Posted by jnewman311

With AP the reason for no papers is so you can’t register it. Keeps the sellers relationship safe with ad so it seems

yeah some resellers tell you not to register for 6 months to 1 year to keep the previous owners relationship intact, which is wild to me.

[macrowatch]

Well you know, if you could codify that in the contract might actually be a win win. Buyer gets heavily discounted pieces (especially if it's going below list price) and seller basically pays for the service of non-registration as each period goes by.

Also dmash, don't forget about how most china buyers will ditch box and proof of purchase before re-entry to mainland.

[psm11]

Originally Posted by s14roller

That wasn’t my point - everyone knows what happened to anything of value. However, the 30.5 didn’t give any context (that overseas piece was without box or papers, missing links, and at that price sold within 1 hr).

I was just sharing to show a real world example of prices dropping considerably week to week. Yes it was from overseas (but from an extremely reputable dealer) and was naked and missing a few links but like others have said, if you are the end user and planning to keep it all of that doesn't really matter and can be had for what? Maybe an extra grand?

[aa909]

MODA brand new 15500or going for retail+tax. At least 2 were posted for sale this week.
These things were going for >50% above retail earlier this year. The collapse in aftermarket price has been massive

[gretch6364]

Originally Posted by aa909

The collapse in aftermarket price has been massive

Good.

[AperolSpritz]

Well am glad I never bought above retail...
Though we might quickly end up in a situation where most pieces will trade below retail on the grey.
Not that I care that much but wonder how the brands are going to respond to that. Especially those which have massively invested in their own distribution channels and cut ADs (hence increasing their opex)

[supernova]

As someone mentioned before, if a watch holds retail value or close to it (+/- 20%) has been historically a great "investment" to wear and enjoy. I personally hope the hyper inflated prices we seen in the last few years is gone for good and any watch that was requiring 1-2 year wait becomes 1-2 months.

[red1108nyc]

Originally Posted by dmash

It’s the market. Some greys are refusing Subs and GMTs even at retail, as they’re already so saturated. This isn’t an opinion, there’s dealers who have posted videos saying such and other firsthand experiences such as yourself.

A bit of ‘writing on the wall’ if you will……kind of hard to turn a blind eye at this point. But this shouldn’t even matter to anybody who was truly into horology from the get go. I simply track pricing as a means of seeing how much longer I might have to wait for my allocations.

I believe in the coming months we’ll see who *truly* liked these watches. I have a feeling a lot of these new guys who were quote on quote 'obesessed with watches and here for the long term', will have a sudden change of heart if their money spent turns negative. A lot of people were disillusioned into loving something simply because it was an immediate profit maker, not for what is actually was. Time will tell!

Bravo

Tracking pricing is for fun. You have to own these watches like they are worth “zero” and truly enjoy them. This market will flush out a lot of “collectors” in transit. Low hanging fruit days are in the rear view mirror I think.

[AperolSpritz]

Originally Posted by red1108nyc

Bravo

Tracking pricing is for fun. You have to own these watches like they are worth “zero” and truly enjoy them. This market will flush out a lot of “collectors” in transit. Low hanging fruit days are in the rear view mirror I think.

Couldn't agree more...

BUT, I know that my own personal collector journey will get more difficult... at home. As I have been using the current market dynamic with my wife to justify some of my last pricier incomings.

"Honey, I couldn't possibly refuse that new AP/PP. Yes I know it's $100k but it actually is worth 2x more. You should actually thank me. I didn't do it for me. I did it for us, for the family! It's a sacrifice in fact!!!"

but partially true

[macrowatch]

Originally Posted by AperolSpritz

Couldn't agree more...

BUT, I know that my own personal collector journey will get more difficult... at home. As I have been using the current market dynamic with my wife to justify some of my last pricier incomings.

"Honey, I couldn't possibly refuse that new AP/PP. Yes I know it's $100k but it actually is worth 2x more. You should actually thank me. I didn't do it for me. I did it for us, for the family! It's a sacrifice in fact!!!"

but partially true

So true, so true.

[dmash]

Originally Posted by AperolSpritz

Well am glad I never bought above retail...
Though we might quickly end up in a situation where most pieces will trade below retail on the grey.
Not that I care that much but wonder how the brands are going to respond to that. Especially those which have massively invested in their own distribution channels and cut ADs (hence increasing their opex)

Precisely why I’m still shocked AP raised prices again so soon. We haven’t even reached a bottom an Offshores are going for $10k less than retail + tax. Got to be a good balance somewhere, this will look horrendous for AP if they actually drop prices on some models in the next year or so.