Strange happenings in Hong Kong - grey market dealers

[SMD]

Originally Posted by scottywein

That's awesome, did you take it?

Yes, gave it to my wife. Blue dial 15510.

[aa909]

Originally Posted by dmash

Precisely why I’m still shocked AP raised prices again so soon. We haven’t even reached a bottom an Offshores are going for $10k less than retail + tax. Got to be a good balance somewhere, this will look horrendous for AP if they actually drop prices on some models in the next year or so.

Whoa, has AP ever down a price drop before? that would be a disaster for the brand

[HMHM]

Originally Posted by aa909

Whoa, has AP ever down a price drop before? that would be a disaster for the brand

If I remember correctly, they did once for one of the PM chronographs? But other members can correct me. The response wasn’t too great from AP collectors if my memory still works.

[Mr.GL]

Honestly, all luxury goods are taking a hit right now. In addition, AP retail prices have increased a lot for the past 3 years, hence it's not too surprising that some of the models are trading below now.





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[Champagnepapi]

Originally Posted by Mr.GL

Honestly, all luxury goods are taking a hit right now. In addition, AP retail prices have increased a lot for the past 3 years, hence it's not too surprising that some of the models are trading below now.





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100% this. Also, you can find some PM and SS Rolex’s trading at retail or under right now. Same for Some Patek models. Same for AP. And personally, even if some models were cheaper on the grey market, for that type of money I’d still rather pay a slightly higher retail price and buy directly from the AD. Gives me a peace of mind and also an enjoyable experience (with AP house it’s been amazing).


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[Mr.GL]

Originally Posted by Champagnepapi

100% this. Also, you can find some PM and SS Rolex’s trading at retail or under right now. Same for Some Patek models. Same for AP. And personally, even if some models were cheaper on the grey market, for that type of money I’d still rather pay a slightly higher retail price and buy directly from the AD. Gives me a peace of mind and also an enjoyable experience (with AP house it’s been amazing).


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[mickyd329]

Originally Posted by HMHM

If I remember correctly, they did once for one of the PM chronographs? But other members can correct me. The response wasn’t too great from AP collectors if my memory still works.

They've done price decreases on CE ROO's also in the past from what I remember.

[SMD]

Originally Posted by aa909

Whoa, has AP ever down a price drop before? that would be a disaster for the brand

Yes they have done price decreases in the past. The pricing on their precious metal pieces got out of whack and they dropped the prices a not insignificant amount. Was terrible for the brand, they never recovered, just like PP when they dropped prices on the nautilus 7 years ago.

Link to one of the earlier discussions on this:

https://www.rolexforums.com/showthread.php?t=276905

It was done to combat the discounting and the grey market. MSRP was high but no one ever paid it. So they dropped MSRP and held AD cost the same so they squeezed the ADs to discourage discounting of the pieces. People who bought recently took a hit, but back then they were being discounted 25%+ off of MSRP.

[Champagnepapi]

Originally Posted by SMD

Yes they have done price decreases in the past. The pricing on their precious metal pieces got out of whack and they dropped the prices a not insignificant amount. Was terrible for the brand, they never recovered, just like PP when they dropped prices on the nautilus 7 years ago.

Link to one of the earlier discussions on this:

https://www.rolexforums.com/showthread.php?t=276905

It was done to combat the discounting and the grey market. MSRP was high but no one ever paid it. So they dropped MSRP and held AD cost the same so they squeezed the ADs to discourage discounting of the pieces. People who bought recently took a hit, but back then they were being discounted 25%+ off of MSRP.

Times have changed and so has the market. Once upon a time rolex couldn’t sell Daytona’s and practically gave them away as gifts. Well, you know the rest….


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[aa909]

Originally Posted by SMD

Yes they have done price decreases in the past. The pricing on their precious metal pieces got out of whack and they dropped the prices a not insignificant amount. Was terrible for the brand, they never recovered, just like PP when they dropped prices on the nautilus 7 years ago.

Link to one of the earlier discussions on this:

https://www.rolexforums.com/showthread.php?t=276905

It was done to combat the discounting and the grey market. MSRP was high but no one ever paid it. So they dropped MSRP and held AD cost the same so they squeezed the ADs to discourage discounting of the pieces. People who bought recently took a hit, but back then they were being discounted 25%+ off of MSRP.

Ugh! That is a disaster for the brand.

I’ve already seen 2 15500or for retail on the grey market. If we get another leg down in the markets these precious metal ROs are going below retail in 2023 🤦*♂️

[911AP]

Originally Posted by aa909

Ugh! That is a disaster for the brand.

I’ve already seen 2 15500or for retail on the grey market. If we get another leg down in the markets these precious metal ROs are going below retail in 2023 ��*♂️

Send a link to these pieces please. I'll buy one. Every grey market dealer I look at is still asking 2-3x MSRP for any RO. 15500st are all in the 45k+ range unless it's a blue dial. Then it's 65k. But if someone is offering a 15500 in rose at retail, I'll buy it.

As far as price decreases, yes a few years back they dropped all PM prices a lot to account for the currency changes between the euro and dollar. It sucked for everyone especially hard who had just bought platinum pieces. The price decrease on those was like 40k or something big like that.

[macrowatch]

All this hype then bubble deflate carnage has me thinking PP got the trend right after all by discontinuing 5711. As the tides recede, there is now too too many RO on the market, more coming online, but no more 5711 for now. And at least there were way less per year 5711 vs RO anyways.

More importantly after having lived with the 50th’s for some time now, I will confess I like 15500 and 26331 more than the 50th’s.

[youthagainsttt]

Originally Posted by Mr.GL

Honestly, all luxury goods are taking a hit right now. In addition, AP retail prices have increased a lot for the past 3 years, hence it's not too surprising that some of the models are trading below now.





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In Hong Kong it seems pretty resilient esp for Rolex including PM models. But definitely wanting those daydates to go down further so I can snap 1 up!

This thread has really taken off in the last week, when I started this topic didn’t think I’d get such a response! My most viewed thread here on the forums

[anx21]

Originally Posted by 911AP

Send a link to these pieces please. I'll buy one. Every grey market dealer I look at is still asking 2-3x MSRP for any RO. 15500st are all in the 45k+ range unless it's a blue dial. Then it's 65k. But if someone is offering a 15500 in rose at retail, I'll buy it.

As far as price decreases, yes a few years back they dropped all PM prices a lot to account for the currency changes between the euro and dollar. It sucked for everyone especially hard who had just bought platinum pieces. The price decrease on those was like 40k or something big like that.

Here you go, I look forward to your "Incoming" post

[dmash]

Originally Posted by anx21

Here you go, I look forward to your "Incoming" post

Highly doubt you're getting a response, he's gotten realllyyyy quiet in the last 10 days after he was on about how there's this incredible demand to keep AP at 2-3x MSRP. He still never responded to this post I asked him about below either

Sealed/NEW 50th RO is going for only a 50% premium now. 15500 at essentially MSRP + tax. and essentially zero sign we've touched a bottom. 2-3x MSRP is laughable, only a schmuck would pay that right now, just facts.

Originally Posted by 911AP

I don't know.....I had 3 ROOs. Sold 2 of them for more than I paid to dealers who had them on consignment. No issues. Both sold in less than 2 weeks. Still have 1 left. Made space for the bigger pieces I'm trying to get now.

You can't really get out of the taxes anymore. I was able to do that with the first 2, but not the third one.

Originally Posted by dmash

Just to clarify. In summation, you’ve:

- flipped 2 (possibly soon to be 3) ROO
- flipped a 15500 recently

Yet your House/Boutique has zero issue with you churning their allocations and gave you a 15202st/you have hopes of a 15407st too.

Very, very interesting data point here.

[*M5]

If I may, what are the 15450SRs going for on this MODA?

I'd really like one and all the boutiques I approached recently basically laughed in my face, some never even responded after the request. And Chrono..... well Chrono, I have alarms set up but everyone is still charging an arm and a leg above retail.

I wish I could concur with the theme of this thread but to be honest, any ADs I have approached recently whether being Rolex, AP, PP have discarded my requests, and I'm not even asking for SS pieces

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[GW44]

Originally Posted by anx21

Here you go, I look forward to your "Incoming" post

As ever with threads like this the devil is really in the detail........

So with that 2021 15500OR its without warranty card (but "new, archives papers") and by the look of it not supplied with the OEM strap but a Rubber one. Also listing says "with box" but not "original box"

What currency is that 46,500 in please.......and vs. MSRP in the same region?

Also condition is unknown from what you posted/linked to as well....

[Vince_76]

Originally Posted by 911AP

15500st are all in the 45k+ range unless it's a blue dial.

They’re lower than that as Dmash said. 30k - 38k on MODA (depending on condition and set). If you want to compare like for like, an unworn, full set is only at about a 35% premium of MSRP and tax here in New York. I think they will dip to MSRP plus tax soon.

Complete set, new blue dial sold for 48.5k.

Originally Posted by macrowatch

All this hype then bubble deflate carnage has me thinking PP got the trend right after all by discontinuing 5711. As the tides recede, there is now too too many RO on the market, more coming online, but no more 5711 for now. And at least there were way less per year 5711 vs RO anyways.

More importantly after having lived with the 50th’s for some time now, I will confess I like 15500 and 26331 more than the 50th’s.

Yeah, if Patek really discontinued the 5711 because of the writing on the wall, good on them.

Agree on your take with the 50th models. Prefer the older refs as well.

Originally Posted by dmash

Highly doubt you're getting a response, he's gotten realllyyyy quiet in the last 10 days after he was on about how there's this incredible demand to keep AP at 2-3x MSRP. He still never responded to this post I asked him about below either

Sealed/NEW 50th RO is going for only a 50% premium now. 15500 at essentially MSRP + tax. and essentially zero sign we've touched a bottom. 2-3x MSRP is laughable, only a schmuck would pay that right now, just facts.

Yeah. When used sets are going for MSRP plus retail, it’s only a matter of time before new ones follow suit, especially in this environment.

[thekman]

Originally Posted by Champagnepapi

100% this. Also, you can find some PM and SS Rolex’s trading at retail or under right now. Same for Some Patek models. Same for AP. And personally, even if some models were cheaper on the grey market, for that type of money I’d still rather pay a slightly higher retail price and buy directly from the AD. Gives me a peace of mind and also an enjoyable experience (with AP house it’s been amazing).


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The problem now it's not really "slight" anymore. Seeing codes selling for 30-40% off on Moda. ROOs about 8k less once you factor in taxes if buying from boutique. All this coupled with the significant decrease in grey premium on ROs makes the boutique games much less appealing. Might as well buy grey. I have so far only dealt with the boutique when it comes to AP but with the way things are going we will see if that continues to be the case.

[AperolSpritz]

How can you access MODA?
Searched on google but no luck.
Just curious

[trackingtime]

Originally Posted by anx21

Here you go, I look forward to your "Incoming" post

lol no card but new with archives paper.

[APWhale]

Originally Posted by AperolSpritz

How can you access MODA?
Searched on google but no luck.
Just curious

Fb

[FrmrHoss]

Originally Posted by dmash

Precisely why I’m still shocked AP raised prices again so soon. We haven’t even reached a bottom an Offshores are going for $10k less than retail + tax. Got to be a good balance somewhere, this will look horrendous for AP if they actually drop prices on some models in the next year or so.

Ironically I got a call for a ROO this week. I have a sporadic history with AP (bought a 15400 back in 2017 and then a Code chrono last year) and really only want something precious metal in RO from them at this point in time. My SA reached out for the ROO with a "didn't want you to think I wasn't thinking about you!" message. The pessimist in me was thinking "or, you just went through another price increase, the secondary market for these things are collapsing and you called a lot of customers that actually have expressed interest in one and they're all passing...."

Just one anecdote to add....

[AperolSpritz]

Originally Posted by APWhale

Fb

Ok thanks !

[aa909]

77350CE.OO.1266CE.01 ceramic 34mm sold for msrp+tax today. I've seen greys on this site listing those for 2x MSRP. Rolex gold watches also pretty much all going for around msrp on MODA

it's not looking good for the precious metal / ceramic watches on the secondary market. Looks like premiums are gone for those models. they're the canary in the coal mine?

[anx21]

Originally Posted by GW44

As ever with threads like this the devil is really in the detail........

So with that 2021 15500OR its without warranty card (but "new, archives papers") and by the look of it not supplied with the OEM strap but a Rubber one. Also listing says "with box" but not "original box"

What currency is that 46,500 in please.......and vs. MSRP in the same region?

Also condition is unknown from what you posted/linked to as well....

Going to assume you’re just unfamiliar with that group and are not being obtuse - the original AP box is included, I had to crop the last photo in the album because of TRF image size limitations. The condition is genuinely new with 0 scratches, the leather strap is included in the sale as well. The price is USD, the MSRP w/o tax here is ~42000, add ~10% sales tax and you’re at the asking. As for no new warranty card on a brand new watch, I’ll let you guess the reason (maybe take a look at the “sold my diver now what” post on this forum ;)

[Champagnepapi]

Originally Posted by thekman

The problem now it's not really "slight" anymore. Seeing codes selling for 30-40% off on Moda. ROOs about 8k less once you factor in taxes if buying from boutique. All this coupled with the significant decrease in grey premium on ROs makes the boutique games much less appealing. Might as well buy grey. I have so far only dealt with the boutique when it comes to AP but with the way things are going we will see if that continues to be the case.

I believe in the last couple of days you are seeing the highly leveraged individual dealers on moda panicking and trying to get rid of their small inventories as quickly as possible. Big trusted greys are still not at those prices at all. At least not yet. There is a big gap between the prices on moda to the prices on big greys websites and chrono 24 and other trading groups.


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[aa909]

Originally Posted by anx21

Going to assume you’re just unfamiliar with that group and are not being obtuse - the original AP box is included, I had to crop the last photo in the album because of TRF image size limitations. The condition is genuinely new with 0 scratches, the leather strap is included in the sale as well. The price is USD, the MSRP w/o tax here is ~42000, add ~10% sales tax and you’re at the asking. As for no new warranty card on a brand new watch, I’ll let you guess the reason (maybe take a look at the “sold my diver now what” post on this forum ;)

^^^This!

[aa909]

Originally Posted by Champagnepapi

I believe in the last couple of days you are seeing the highly leveraged individual dealers on moda panicking and trying to get rid of their small inventories as quickly as possible. Big trusted greys are still not at those prices at all. At least not yet. There is a big gap between the prices on moda to the prices on big greys and chrono 24 and other trading groups.


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those Chrono24 prices are just list prices, in general they're not selling at those prices. my conspiracy theory is they use Chrono24 to list high prices, so when they go on other FS forums they can reference the high Chrono prices to justify their "lower" prices LOL!

[Champagnepapi]

Originally Posted by aa909

those Chrono24 prices are just list prices, in general they're not selling at those prices. my conspiracy theory is they use Chrono24 to list high prices, so when they go on other FS forums they can reference the high Chrono prices to justify their "lower" prices LOL!

I agree. But at the same time, I don’t see all moda sellers as reliable as the big trusted greys. I believe they have less cash to to play with as they work alone. I also see a lot of posts of scams there lately. And their reference check aren’t always 100% legit. I’m just saying that moda also isn’t 100% accurate.


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