Deepsea and Sky Dweller grey prices - coming down?

[jbwm2311]

Thought I'd see what the view on this was...

I follow a watch auction site (watchcollecting.com) for general interest and to look at all the pretty pictures. I also view it as a really good barometer of true grey market prices - i.e. what people are actually prepared to pay, as opposed to what someone optimistically lists a watch for on Chrono 24 et al.

As a DSSD fan I was intrigued to see how the first (2023, brand new, unworn) ref 136660 JC to come through the site would perform. To my surprise it went unsold at 11,001 GBP. Buyers commission is on top (6% or 500gbp whichever is greater) but that's the (apparently) most desirable version of the newest DSSD, 'AAA' graded, RLX branded caseback and all at essentially retail and in your paws as soon as Escrow clears.

I also noticed today a brand new, unworn, factory stickered 2019 black-dial steel/gold Sky Dweller sold for 13,000 gbp - comfortably below MRSP.

Further investigation on the Deepsea threw up another interesting observation. 4 of the last 7 126660 DSSD on the platform, dating back to 30/10/22, sold for more than the 136660 was bid at. (of the remaining three, all 'A' graded, one was sold at 10,750, another at 10,400 and the worst performer of all a JC at 9,000).

In addition to this, I was especially interested to see that the black dial was selling for parity with, or more than, the JC which is a very different picture to circa 18 months ago when the JC would outperform the black dial every time.

So what does this mean for the new reference? Is the 136660 inherently less popular? I know many people thought the update was 'meh' and undermined it's true dive watch chops by deleting the fliplock (even if it wasn't used by most) and making the crystal stand proud by thinning the bezel for aesthetics, rather than function, thus making it easier to catch. Given the movement is the same and the date window increase mathematical rather than practical has the 126660, now discontinued, suddenly become seen as the last 'proper' DSSD?

And what of the JC? Given (most) all the articles on the DSSD focus on the JC, the vast majority for sale are JC, and the flexers love the JC has the subtler Black Dial become, unexpectedly, the rarer and therefore more interesting of the two?

And finally what of the Sky Dweller selling for a final bid of 13k - is this the start of a normalisation of pricing in the grey market for Rolexes?

Fascinated to get your takes on it!

[Harry-57]

My superficial reading of the situation is they went up steeply, they have now come down again and are either level, still decreasing slowly, or back on the slow rise curve that predominated before the spike, depending on the model. I'm not all that into the minutiae, but they need to be insured so I keep a lazy eye on the new and used market.

[Calatrava r]

How do you define “normalization” in the secondary market. It is strictly supply/demand which fluctuates daily. There is no normal IMO.

[Carguy87]

Haven’t kept much eye on the secondary market for the JC since I absolutely love mine and have no intentions of selling or trading it, but I will say I love that mine has the fliplock even if I don’t really use it. I think pricing on all models is dropping for several economic reasons, and as they drop more flippers and watch investors, who could care less about the timepieces themselves and just see them as a commodity to be traded, will exit watch flipping because of the shrinking margins, or cut back to only flipping the most in demand pieces. This will further depress the used/grey market for “like new” as the demand for new watches from AD’s on most models will be reduced as flippers stop buying certain pieces because of the lack of margin, thereby allowing more folks like us to buy at MSRP from an AD rather than go grey to not have to wait forever.

[jbwm2311]

Originally Posted by Calatrava r

How do you define “normalization” in the secondary market. It is strictly supply/demand which fluctuates daily. There is no normal IMO.

Yeah - hear you on that. Define 'normal'... I guess what I mean by normalisation in this sense is a return to the recognition of the product for what it is - a beautiful chattel that means different things to different owners and to the vast majority of people in the world absolutely nothing at all - and not an alternate asset class.

Something that people cannot walk into a shop and buy, but that they want, will always attract a premium. As you say, supply vs demand. Likewise historic or limited run models will always be worth a significant premium because you can't have them any more and the numbers are, by default, finite.

But I wonder if the days of paying sometimes up to 80% over retail for a watch like a stainless Submariner Date as an investment are drawing to a close. The notion that 'prices can only go up!' may have run its course with watches in the near term.

As that element of the market cools it may bring the grey price down to a level where someone can afford to pay that bit more for a watch they want now, and can't get at their AD, because they want it and want to wear it and can justify that additional cost over MRP.

I have a friend who owns an AP that lives in his safe, has never been worn, and that he's terrified of taking out if it's box. He bought it at retail but it makes me sad - I love dive watches to have scratches and dents (although I always hate the first!) because it's patina, it tells a story, and if you're lucky enough to have one from new it's your story. It's overly romantic, I know, but by normalisation I mean the market cooling to a level where people who can afford to buy them at retail, and even above retail for hard to get models, can get them for a price that doesn't essentially prohibit ever wearing them, love them and enjoy them.

My mates AP should be on his wrist with his linen shirt, while he sips chilled white wine on the shores of an Italian lake. Not stuck in a safe in perpetuity while he wears a fitbit (and I do take the thundering piss out of him for it).

Again though, it's just my opinion and I don't claim to be any kind of expert on anything market related. It's just my thoughts.

[diver2012]

Fyi buyers pay 7.2% with VAT not 6%.

[paxjedi]

Originally Posted by jbwm2311

Thought I'd see what the view on this was...


So what does this mean for the new reference?

Fascinated to get your takes on it!

It means you are making an inference based on significantly weak statistical data.

p.s.
I am an economist.


.

[brandrea]

It’s interesting that the ask for a 2022 Submariner is close to a 2023 DS. I guess it’s always sort of been that way, JC version excluded.

[jbwm2311]

Originally Posted by diver2012

Fyi buyers pay 7.2% with VAT not 6%.

Good point well made - the 6% at watchcollecting.com is base less whatever local sales tax applies.

[jbwm2311]

Originally Posted by paxjedi

It means you are making an inference based on significantly weak statistical data.

p.s.
I am an economist.


.

For sure - but it is the only data I have in which I can point to an actual sale (or in this case high bid) price. Of the many on Chrono24, Watchfinder&co. etc, do we ever know for sure if that's the price the watch actually sold for, or if it's no longer available it's because it sold at the advertised price or has just been withdrawn from sale having not shifted?

I just would have expected the first ref 136660 on the site to have been bid higher than the majority of ref 126660/116660 that have traded there so I was surprised...

[rolex_pl85]

Pretty much all SkyD and Deepsea is at MSRP or lower except for the blue face. They've all dropped massively.

Thats what you should be paying anyway if your looking for one.

[Watchtracker]

It's almost impossible to get a trend from auction results as its a separate market to some extent. It's a different risk profile, different demographic. Have to cast the net wider.

[Harry-57]

Originally Posted by rolex_pl85

Pretty much all SkyD and Deepsea is at MSRP or lower except for the blue face. They've all dropped massively.

Thats what you should be paying anyway if your looking for one.

Please point me to a BNIB white SS Sky Dweller selling for MSRP or under. I'd also like the full RG with slate dial for under MSRP. Got a link for that?

Thank you.

[beshannon]

Welcome to the forum

[KevNev]

Originally Posted by Harry-57

Please point me to a BNIB white SS Sky Dweller selling for MSRP or under. I'd also like the full RG with slate dial for under MSRP. Got a link for that?

Thank you.

Haha - I’ll take the link for the BNIB black SS Sky Dweller at MSRP. Too bad that’s not going to happen.

[1William]

It is difficult to draw a conclusion based so such limited data. I follow the prices from several of out Trusted Sellers on their web sites and have seen a dip and a slight rebound as of late. I own the last generation DSSD-JC and really like the watch. I am not interested in the new version and the updates. While we saw a huge runup of prices and a significant drop back one thing is for sure, in the long run, over years, nothing is going to get cheaper and stay cheaper. You are not going to see popular SS Sport models available in AD's cases for immediate purchase any time soon and while we can discuss the markets to nauseum, the best we can do is speculate based on the information we have.