So why are people really getting “the call” now?

[ArtNouveau]

Originally Posted by Nads786

I may have missed this, but what is the conclusion? You received your watch much sooner than the timeline they gave you.

What do you think that indicates?

As stated in my summary…demand may be cooling somewhat but we’re a long ways from cases full of SS watches. Why I got it so quickly is pure speculation.
Having known my SA for many years, I presume he was giving me a long estimate but hoping it would come sooner.

[BMAN8]

Originally Posted by Calatrava r

This notion that ADs sell Rolex watches out the back door or directly to the secondary market is pure internet fiction. It makes no sense for obvious reasons.

Merchants only "dump" goods on "grey markets" to raise capital, they never do it when they can readily sell those goods in their business to retail customers.

The added profit to be gained on a few hot pieces sold to the grey market is miniscule compared to the profit being made on selling the Rolex line at MSRP in the ordinary course of business and the profits from the "random foot traffic sales" generated by having Rolex in the store. People see the Rolex billboards in an area and flock to that store to see the brand. Get them in the store and they might and often will buy something non-Rolex on a whim. Plus, now everyone wants to develop a purchase history no matter how small to ultimately get a Rolex.

Being able to provide and sell the most coveted Rolex watches in the store enables the store to attract and build up big spending repeat customers and lets the store bundle such watch sales with other expensive merchandize resulting in far more profit than a split profit with some used watch dealer.

Being caught by Rolex selling out the back door means loss of the Rolex dealership which is a death blow to a jewelry store in this economic environment where traditional jewelry sales have been very slow for years. Plus, most other mid-tier brands just sit in the cases and are only sold through discounting.

Just an innocent question: Where are the grey dealers getting their Rolex inventory if not from the AD’s?

[ArtNouveau]

Originally Posted by BMAN8

Just an innocent question: Where are the grey dealers getting their Rolex inventory if not from the AD’s?

Flippers. At least in the US, ADs do their best to avoid selling to known flippers but it still happens. I heard over 20 years ago the expression that “a Rolex franchise is a license to print money,” and no successful business is going to throw that away to make a quick buck. RolexUSA does care…I know of two former ADs who lost their franchise after being accused of some hanky panky.

[Calatrava r]

Originally Posted by BMAN8

Just an innocent question: Where are the grey dealers getting their Rolex inventory if not from the AD’s?

It comes from retail purchasers who sell immediately or very soon thereafter. As the used market prices rise over retail, the more watches will end up in the used market. Many purchasers who waited for years for a Daytona or Nautilus to keep and wear are simply overwhelmed by allure of a substantial quick profit and sell. No matter how hard a watch Company and its ADs screen the buyers, some will quickly re-sell. A case in point was the Patek 2020 building commentative watch in SS. The ADs hand selected their best clients which were then approved by Patek. Within a few months or so, the used dealer I follow, had sold three for prices well above retail. So much for their best efforts to prevent flipping. I think a lot of this is a onetime win the lottery event not a professional flipping scheme as many believe. Generally, your AD will suspect that green/yellow gold Daytona is gone if you never wear it in the store. But if you regularly spend big bucks there on everything at the end of the day, it is just business. ADs cannot control what buyers do with their property.

A point many may not get is watches for sale online are very visible for the whole world to see. But how many trusted used outlets are there in the world and how many actual watches do they have. I suspect it is a small fraction of the annual million plus Rolex new retail market and so many of the watches for sale online are not this year's production but from older years. All of this gives the impression all new Rolex are sold used online because buyers cannot get them from ADs without waiting and jumping through a lot hoops. But the real issue is supply has outpaced demand, hence the wait at ADs and higher used prices.

[puma1552]

Originally Posted by ArtNouveau

Flippers. At least in the US, ADs do their best to avoid selling to known flippers but it still happens. I heard over 20 years ago the expression that “a Rolex franchise is a license to print money,” and no successful business is going to throw that away to make a quick buck. RolexUSA does care…I know of two former ADs who lost their franchise after being accused of some hanky panky.

Originally Posted by Calatrava r

It comes from retail purchasers who sell immediately or very soon thereafter. As the used market prices rise over retail, the more watches will end up in the used market. Many purchasers who waited for years for a Daytona or Nautilus to keep and wear are simply overwhelmed by allure of a substantial quick profit and sell. No matter how hard a watch Company and its ADs screen the buyers, some will quickly re-sell. A case in point was the Patek 2020 building commentative watch in SS. The ADs hand selected their best clients which were then approved by Patek. Within a few months or so, the used dealer I follow, had sold three for prices well above retail. So much for their best efforts to prevent flipping. I think a lot of this is a onetime win the lottery event not a professional flipping scheme as many believe. Generally, your AD will suspect that green/yellow gold Daytona is gone if you never wear it in the store. But if you regularly spend big bucks there on everything at the end of the day, it is just business. ADs cannot control what buyers do with their property.

A point many may not get is watches for sale online are very visible for the whole world to see. But how many trusted used outlets are there in the world and how many actual watches do they have. I suspect it is a small fraction of the annual million plus Rolex new retail market and so many of the watches for sale online are not this year's production but from older years. All of this gives the impression all new Rolex are sold used online because buyers cannot get them from ADs without waiting and jumping through a lot hoops. But the real issue is supply has outpaced demand, hence the wait at ADs and higher used prices.

But what about watches at greys that still have stickers on them?

[BMAN8]

Originally Posted by Calatrava r

It comes from retail purchasers who sell immediately or very soon thereafter. As the used market prices rise over retail, the more watches will end up in the used market. Many purchasers who waited for years for a Daytona or Nautilus to keep and wear are simply overwhelmed by allure of a substantial quick profit and sell. No matter how hard a watch Company and its ADs screen the buyers, some will quickly re-sell. A case in point was the Patek 2020 building commentative watch in SS. The ADs hand selected their best clients which were then approved by Patek. Within a few months or so, the used dealer I follow, had sold three for prices well above retail. So much for their best efforts to prevent flipping. I think a lot of this is a onetime win the lottery event not a professional flipping scheme as many believe. Generally, your AD will suspect that green/yellow gold Daytona is gone if you never wear it in the store. But if you regularly spend big bucks there on everything at the end of the day, it is just business. ADs cannot control what buyers do with their property.

A point many may not get is watches for sale online are very visible for the whole world to see. But how many trusted used outlets are there in the world and how many actual watches do they have. I suspect it is a small fraction of the annual million plus Rolex new retail market and so many of the watches for sale online are not this year's production but from older years. All of this gives the impression all new Rolex are sold used online because buyers cannot get them from ADs without waiting and jumping through a lot hoops. But the real issue is supply has outpaced demand, hence the wait at ADs and higher used prices.

Thank you for the explanation. This makes perfect sense. Frankly, your comments would make a great sticky to address the issue.

[ArtNouveau]

Originally Posted by puma1552

But what about watches at greys that still have stickers on them?

Believe what you want to believe. Every dealer can have their quirks and some that will sell a watch with stickers are likely still around.

[Nads786]

Originally Posted by ArtNouveau

Flippers. At least in the US, ADs do their best to avoid selling to known flippers but it still happens. I heard over 20 years ago the expression that “a Rolex franchise is a license to print money,” and no successful business is going to throw that away to make a quick buck. RolexUSA does care…I know of two former ADs who lost their franchise after being accused of some hanky panky.

This lines up with a theory I’ve had, if you have a Rolex ifs easier to get another Rolex.

If you want a Rolex from 2020-2023 what prompted your interest? I would assume SAs suspect it’s because you want to flip the watch.

It seems less likely an existing customer would do that.


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[Kinnakeet]

Originally Posted by ArtNouveau

Believe what you want to believe. Every dealer can have their quirks and some that will sell a watch with stickers are likely still around.

My husband just bought a WG Daytona and not long ago a WG Sub from the same AD. The stickers were left on. My RG Yacht the same AD removed them.

[ArtNouveau]

Originally Posted by Nads786

This lines up with a theory I’ve had, if you have a Rolex ifs easier to get another Rolex.

If you want a Rolex from 2020-2023 what prompted your interest? I would assume SAs suspect it’s because you want to flip the watch.

It seems less likely an existing customer would do that.


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This. I can ask for and receive another new Rolex because I’ve known my SA since the 90’s. He knows my watch habits and knows I would never ask for something I won’t wear.

[BMAN8]

Originally Posted by ArtNouveau

Flippers. At least in the US, ADs do their best to avoid selling to known flippers but it still happens. I heard over 20 years ago the expression that “a Rolex franchise is a license to print money,” and no successful business is going to throw that away to make a quick buck. RolexUSA does care…I know of two former ADs who lost their franchise after being accused of some hanky panky.

Thanks for your reply. I don't doubt that Rolex cares about their distribution/selling channels.

I also agree that it would be, at the very least, a short sighted decision of any AD - or any business for that matter - to sell product in a nefarious way.

[AJMarcus]

The speculators and flippers are no longer buying from ADs. That simple. Somehow they rose to the top of the “lists” with many ADs. But no longer. Therefore ADs are forced to reach out to the true collectors who expressed interest in years passed to sell their incoming stock.

[Michigan_State]

Money isn’t cheap any longer, the flippers are leaving the arena, the general hype is dying down and let’s be honest, wearing rolex isn’t cool any more. anybody and their aunty (plus the neighbor's dog) has one, these days.

[worldofoyster]

supply > demand

[msnow]

Originally Posted by worldofoyster

supply > demand

Not where I live on SoCal.


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[Rolexatlast]

Originally Posted by Oystersteel92

I'm interested to see what happens once the professional class with large student loans (doctors, lawyers etc) starts having to repay their student loans. Going from $0 a month to a couple thousand dollars or more a month might give one pause when saying yes to an AD. Interest starts to accrue again September 1st with payments resuming October 1st. 44 million Americans have student loans, totaling $1.6 trillion. Source, USA Today.

.

Could you explain more about this? Why are loans starting now to be repaid?

[peptide45]

Originally Posted by Rolexatlast

Could you explain more about this? Why are loans starting now to be repaid?

Part of the COVID relief package from the government was to not accrue interest and not require student loan payments on federal loans for the last couple of years. This just expired. So, many people are now having to restart their loan payments.


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[Rolexatlast]

Originally Posted by peptide45

Part of the COVID relief package from the government was to not accrue interest and not require student loan payments on federal loans for the last couple of years. This just expired. So, many people are now having to restart their loan payments.


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Thanks

[enjoythemusic]

Originally Posted by peptide45

Part of the COVID relief package from the government was to not accrue interest and not require student loan payments on federal loans for the last couple of years. This just expired. So, many people are now having to restart their loan payments.

Yes, well said. Student loan repayment will cause a ripple effect. In addition, 'liquidity' is drying up combined with a non-stable acceleration of currency devaluation.

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[Philadelphialawyer1]

crickets
probably b/c I turned down sundust dial datejusts and tudors

[Podmornica]

Originally Posted by Michigan_State

Money isn’t cheap any longer, the flippers are leaving the arena, the general hype is dying down and let’s be honest, wearing rolex isn’t cool any more. anybody and their aunty (plus the neighbor's dog) has one, these days.

This sums it up perfectly.

[Calatrava r]

https://www.rolexforums.com/showthread.php?t=916268


This recent thread really sums up what is going on in the current market. It is not that flippers are no longer buying; this fellow is not a flipper. It is that people felt good buying any Rolex watch because they did not see it as purchase but rather an alternative place to put money. Now on many models the secondary pricing lags retail. Now there is a real cost to buying a watch. It is no longer "free." The purchase, now, has to really make sense and perhaps many watch purchases in the few years did not. But it made no difference because buyers could buy any watch they could find at retail and recoup their money when they re-sold it. I think it was Fleetwood who astutely observed in another thread, that the Rolex market will be strong as long as "Rolex" is on the dial and the watches are worth more on the used market than MSRP.

[tmoy810]

Originally Posted by bogardon

its not like private buyers who bought at msrp are turning around and selling them on for ~msrp...so i can't really fault the "trusted sellers" for their greed as it were.

If I had to "blame" anyone it would be ADs for allegedly selling to greys and maybe Rolex for not policing it.

This makes me wonder... I have heard rumors about Rolex policing this and if an AD were to be caught doing this, Rolex status is pulled from them. I wonder how many of the ADs (if any) who have lost their license recently have suffered this fate?

CD Peacock (Chicagoland Ad) that was caught up in an alleged Rolex scandal has stopped carrying Rolex at the specific store involved with the scandal. Their official response is so that their larger boutique in the Oak Brook area can have more allocation, but that doesn't quite make sense to me. It seems more likely Rolex pulled the status from that location for getting caught breaking the rules. (of course this is all speculative)

Maybe it makes me feel better about the possibility that Rolex really is policing/monitoring the situation.

[watchboynyc]

Originally Posted by Inthesticks

What is "a lot of people getting the call now" based on.. People who post on this Forum? Thats not an objective sampling.

Last time I checked there were still little to no models in display cases, and many AD's in the NY Metro area aren't even taking new names for their lists.

I have seen many not so popular models on sale at several AD including Time machine 888 on 57th st and WoS in Hudson Yards.

Last week, they have WG sub, and several other PM models including Sky Dweller at WoS.

Time Machine 888 usually has 1 or two models for sale for walk ins. The last time i was there, they have 2 tone fluted DJ for sale.

Also most have many "exhibition" pieces for you to try.