Your thoughts about current market and Rolex supply

[6SpeedTA95]

Originally Posted by majidessa

Rolex watches can now be categoriezed as follows:

> Hard to ger watches that trade up to 2x or more over MSRP, such as SS Daytona, and PEPSI (representing maybe 1% of Rolex lineup )

> Sought after but more available that trade up to 50% - 75% over MSRP such as Sub Date, BLNR, and very few PM etc... (these represent 30 - 40% of Rolex line up).

> Watches that could be easily available and are traded under MSRP such as various DJ configuration, majority of PM models, two tones...etc ( these are more than 60% of current Rolex line up).

That is why the demand has fallen so much in the past year which is normal. Other luxury brands have fewer models that people are interested in or even traded over MSRP when bought new.

However the real question is, if Rolex increases the production by 50 - 60% as per its current plans, it might shoot it self on the foot as there will be way too much stock both new and used in the market. I'm sure Rolex is king when it comes to business tactics and marketing, nevertheless, the volume will by very huge.

I'm not sure Rolex likes the bullshit and games that purchasers are being put through by ADs. They may want a little looser market.

Rolex will probably throttle production before they start seeing values plummet.

[BroncoOne]

Originally Posted by 4reRlxGuy

The ADs are still trying to create a perception of excess demand. For instance the local AD gave me a call to come see the new yellow gold GMT on jubilee. They mentioned it would be held as an exhibition piece for at least a month. I txt'd 2 grey dealers who responded with one saying they could get it at msrp (no tax) and the other at msrp (no tax but $750 on top of msrp for their efforts).

The AD at Caesar’s showed me the same exhibition watch. I tried it on and tried to buy it on the spot and wait for delivery until the exhibition period was over. It was only the. That I found out it was already sold. I’ll only get it if the original customer declines (and who knows how many our people are in-line ahead of me at this AD).

Popular PM references are still in big demand. Except maybe that Everose Skydweller on oysterflex that I was offered at Bellagio.

Less popular references may indeed become more available. ADs even having one new Rolex for actual sale is certainly different than a year ago.

[Frontal_Mystic]

Originally Posted by OTX

I think it has a lot to do with where you live as Rolex dealers tend to sell locally only. From my experience, in big cities there are really long waiting lists for the hot models and even the not so hot models. In the poorer parts of the country, I think it’s easier to get one even if you have to wait a little bit. In general though, I feel like the market has softened up a bit. Mostly because of Rolex increasing their production, the state of the economy and fear of the future. Many people are holding onto cash. Also frankly, many people are just plain sick of playing the Rolex wait list game.

From my experience, where I am at in the Midwest doesn't appear to be any better. I have been "on the waitlist" for over a year and was recently told by the nearest AD that it wasn't going to happen this year either. I, like others, feel like were being "pumped up" with false hope when there is never any real chance that we'll get our hands on an SS model- at least from an AD.

[KatGirl]

Originally Posted by Krash

I don’t really pay attention to what’s going on in the aftermarket to be perfectly honest. 1) I’m not buying a used or gray market watch. 2) I’m not selling any of my watches.

Some watches might be easier to get now (I suppose), but fact is, most people still can’t walk into an AD and get the watch they want. That’s all that matters to me.

But I suspect the economy will get worse, not better over the next year, so many people will have a lot more to worry about then getting a new Rolex. So that’s going to be a huge factor in terms of both availability at an AD and after market pricing.



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I agree with Krash, but It will be a slow process. I think it will take a whole year, before we see a significant change, in availability of what we want, from an AD. I won’t pay above retail, for what I want.

Kat


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[Silvio Mosiello]

Walked into an ad this was available sitting right in the case. I passed on it let someone else enjoy it.


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[zengineer]

If returning to normal means that most, or even many watches are readily available at MSRP...we aren't even close. Probably a decade minimum. If it was discovered tomorrow that Rolex used slave child labor and dumped radioactive PCBs in the groundwater it would barely move the needle.

[EH92]

Last month, i visited a grey dealer in HK. A dude asked for 4 pieces of 116500ln black dial. The owner went inside and came out with 4boxes. All 2022 ��.

[amh]

Originally Posted by EH92

Last month, i visited a grey dealer in HK. A dude asked for 4 pieces of 116500ln black dial. The owner went inside and came out with 4boxes. All 2022 ��.

Sounds like Keanu Reeves

https://www.buzzfeed.com/lyapalater/...-rolex-watches

[brandrea]

The last few years have been interesting.

Overall I think we all agree it’s been a bad look for Rolex AD’s to have empty or near empty display cases.

Display models help with the optics to a degree, but honestly I feel for the customer who just wants to buy the watch of their dreams for that special occasion or what have you.

Rolex walks a fine line and it will be interesting to see what the coming years look like.

[Ceriano]

Originally Posted by Frontal_Mystic

From my experience, where I am at in the Midwest doesn't appear to be any better. I have been "on the waitlist" for over a year and was recently told by the nearest AD that it wasn't going to happen this year either. I, like others, feel like were being "pumped up" with false hope when there is never any real chance that we'll get our hands on an SS model- at least from an AD.

I like that this is your first and only post! Nicely done!