The Rolex market is dead!

[Rollieo]

Friends and family know I’m into watches, different people on different occasions like to point out how the Rolex market is tanking.

Then I give them an example. Yes prices have dropped dramatically. Take for example the panda Daytona, it’s dropped 40% in the last 2 years!

Well first off, that’s on the secondary market. And it’s 40% from the high of stupid prices in 2022 when it was selling for $50k for a watch that retails for $15k. Today it’s selling for $30k, which yes is 40% less. But in 2019 it was selling for $20k.

So have prices increased 50% since 2019, or dropped 40% since 2022? Yes both. But it’s still trading for way more than retail and the watch market is still ridiculous. Just not stupid ridiculous like 2022.

[~JJ]

I’ve never discussed pricing with friends and family, but happy to chat watches whenever asked.

[TunaTuna]

I'd say the market is down 40%. Only the hottest steel sports and the special day dates are selling above retail.

[messikens]

Originally Posted by TunaTuna

I'd say the market is down 40%. Only the hottest steel sports and the special day dates are selling above retail.

Exactly that.

Outside of two or three hot models, the large majority of watches (Rolex, AP, Vacheron) is retailing near or below retail. That is VERY different than 2021/2022...

It won't ever be the same as 2008-2014 IMO but let's not kid ourselves, the ADs are clinging to maintain the air of scarcity.

Ask honestly for even a Rootbeer / a 36mm Rolex, a 43mm Seadweller and I'd guarantee you get a call within 2 months at this point

[Yzord]

what do you mean? A Rolex should be worn instead of being something on a market. Get a life.

[jamesbondOO7]

It is like each time the real estate market becomes realistic again. People say prices are dropping, maybe, but dropping from what? From totally unrealistic expectations from the sellers ? Yes. From realistic prices? No. A market drops when prices drop from objective levels.

[1William]

If the measure is the highs of the market in 21-22 then the market has adjusted downward significantly. Not good or bad, just what it is. On models without the hype you can now approach retail or slightly above. Good news if you want one of those watches. If you want a new model SS Daytona, BLRO, BLNR or a few others you will see the prices are still up in the secondary market and have even increased on a few like the BLRO. If you have been around long enough you remember retail minus 30% on almost all PM watches and TT and about 10-20% on most of the SS models. This is all to say that the market is fluid and one thing that will always be true is that in the long run none of these watches will be cheaper. The march up in price over a decade or more is significant and continuous.

[brandrea]

Originally Posted by 1William

If the measure is the highs of the market in 21-22 then the market has adjusted downward significantly. Not good or bad, just what it is. On models without the hype you can now approach retail or slightly above. Good news if you want one of those watches. If you want a new model SS Daytona, BLRO, BLNR or a few others you will see the prices are still up in the secondary market and have even increased on a few like the BLRO. If you have been around long enough you remember retail minus 30% on almost all PM watches and TT and about 10-20% on most of the SS models. This is all to say that the market is fluid and one thing that will always be true is that in the long run none of these watches will be cheaper. The march up in price over a decade or more is significant and continuous.

Well said

[Tools]

Some might say the market is down, but really the market has simply adjusted and become more normalized from the outrageous highs of the past few years.

Rolex has historically held value. It has not been as volatile as it has the past few years and a correction has always been inevitable.

[EEpro]

Market is up. Scroll back 4 years in the sales forums and look at nautilus and royal oak.

Blow off top and regression to the mean, sure, but it's still up.

[cement]

Originally Posted by EEpro

Market is up. Scroll back 4 years in the sales forums and look at nautilus and royal oak.

Blow off top and regression to the mean, sure, but it's still up.

It is down. You can draw any prices you want, the sales is what matters, those are down and dropping. If you see pieces on the market which keep artificial "high demand" prices, they don't sell.

[cement]

Originally Posted by Tools

Some might say the market is down, but really the market has simply adjusted and become more normalized from the outrageous highs of the past few years.

Rolex has historically held value. It has not been as volatile as it has the past few years and a correction has always been inevitable.

Agreed, the market is getting back to normal "before a sudden hype" and "only watch Patek at 31m". Interesting, how all the grey dealers gonna deal with the stock they've got?

Let's face it, sales are down.

[GrailTime]

Why is this thread in this area of the forum?

[EEpro]

Originally Posted by cement

It is down. You can draw any prices you want, the sales is what matters, those are down and dropping. If you see pieces on the market which keep artificial "high demand" prices, they don't sell.

Depends on your starting point doesn't it?

Are Daytona nautilus and RO down from 3 years ago ?

[RTG]

Maybe everyone already has there 'rare' Rolex. I was in Vegas a couple weeks ago. Everyone and their mother had a Rolex sports watch on. Was in Nashville last week, countless Rolex watches on thousands of wrists. Hard to get? Hmmm.

What percentage of these idiotic COVID funds ended up going to Rolex? Did Rolex release the Virus? Hell of a smart move if they did. Seems to be what everyone spent their free money on.

Prices are going to fall until they are back to pre-covid levels. PM watches retailing for 20% off. Only a select few SS pieces trading 20% over retail. When two-tone watches traded over retail, I thought that would trigger the end times. Maybe it did.

[cement]

Originally Posted by EEpro

Depends on your starting point doesn't it?

Are Daytona nautilus and RO down from 3 years ago ?

You get me wrong, sales on all levels are dropping. You won't sell Daytona as you would last year.

[EEpro]

Originally Posted by cement

You get me wrong, sales on all levels are dropping. You won't sell Daytona as you would last year.

No I don't. Everyone knows there was a 2022 bubble top that popped. There's plenty of threads on the topic.

[Calatrava r]

I do not care what used Rolex watches sell for. The used market has nothing to do with the new retail market which seems to be doing very well. Most ADs have no stock for immediate sale yet this thread saying the Rolex market is dead. LOL

[brandrea]

Originally Posted by Calatrava r

I do not care what used Rolex watches sell for …

Ditto

Unrelated but curious to know if Rolex have ever reduced prices at retail?

[77T]

In last 20 years, MSRP has only risen.

Maybe in the 1920-30’s there could have been a reduction - but not since then methinks.


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[GGGMT]

Rolex dead? Hilarious; just got told by my AD today that he’s got neither of my 2 SS options For which I’ve been on the waiting list for more than 18 months.

[rolexandlange]

Originally Posted by 77T

In last 20 years, MSRP has only risen.

Maybe in the 1920-30’s there could have been a reduction - but not since then methinks.


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ehhh. i remember when we were all clamoring for panerais, you had to bundle a Lange to get a Bronzo, and over at the Rolex display my AD had 300 Rolex in stock all available with a discount and no sales tax (except Daytona). This wasn't that long ago, 10-15 years only.