Large price difference for same in-demand model (Nautilus?) made in different years?

[FrançoisCzapek]

for certain Patek models like steel Nautilus models, why does year of manufacture seem to matter? I’ve seen for example a 2020 steel Nautilus sell for substantially higher than an identical 2010 watch, assuming condition and servicing is the same.

Is there any rule of thumb for this? What do you watch out for if you are, for example, considering a gray market buy of such a model that was made over several years? Do the watches from earlier in a model’s run somehow lose value but not the ones made later in the run?

[Partekular]

There are a lot of fakes around and according to some YouTube posts they are very hard to spot. Be careful, if the prices appear cheaper than average there might be a reason other than wear and tear.

[FrançoisCzapek]

No this is true of genuine watches. I'm in Singapore where this is much less of an issue.

[Russell996]

Originally Posted by FrançoisCzapek

for certain Patek models like steel Nautilus models, why does year of manufacture seem to matter? I’ve seen for example a 2020 steel Nautilus sell for substantially higher than an identical 2010 watch, assuming condition and servicing is the same.

Is there any rule of thumb for this? What do you watch out for if you are, for example, considering a gray market buy of such a model that was made over several years? Do the watches from earlier in a model’s run somehow lose value but not the ones made later in the run?

2020 piece had the new movement- not worth paying extra imho.

[FrançoisCzapek]

Originally Posted by Russell996

2020 piece had the new movement- not worth paying extra imho.

Bad example; let's say 2008 versus 2018 then.

[PPPP]

Bro i love you but isnt this the same with old cars? Even a one year difference between brand new watches have a price gap. Perhaps you can elaborate on what exactly you find puzzling? Singapore has its fair share of fake and Frankenstein watches especially in Far East Plaza where some of these shops have their own servicing / polishing services.

[FrançoisCzapek]

I just want to understand how it works for Patek

[masochistsr]

Originally Posted by FrançoisCzapek

I just want to understand how it works for Patek

For the 5711, since ~2019 Patek has the raised logo on the dial. People think this looks better.

[cascavel]

This is an excellent question which I have wondered about, myself. I believe the answer is that most buyers of the Nautilus, particularly the 5711, are not interested in the nuances of the movement, the Geneva Seal vs. the Patek Seal or minor dial variations. They just want a pretty, new watch that won't need a service any time soon.

[bob101]

The older pieces such as Geneva seal nautilus tend to have a more gris greyer hue to the dial then a more vivid blue.
There are some dials like LED coined term dials for 5711 (large embossed dial produced for one year with wider ridges to the dial) and brighter hue 5712 dials later on. These dials often more sought after. Also the earlier dials tend to patina more and have a greenish hue to the lume. It has an almost tritium looking like patina to it. You also get patina on the dial and spotting on the dial as the paint takes on a patina such as around power reserve on early 5712r pieces. Thus is more visible on likes of a 5712R earlier pieces. Like was mentioned the raised Patek logo on later pieces is more preferable for some buyers.
On the 5712, there’s the single dot for power reserve at 48 on early pieces whereas on later ones after Geneva Seal it’s two.

There’s also little things like the newer certificate vs the older certificates. Just like with Rolex these little things matter to collectors and that’s reflected in the price. Add to that newer piece less likely to need service I short to mid term.
Whether the above is enough to justify a 20-30k SGD price range in Singapore make your own conclusions. Personally I like the charm and lower production numbers of the Geneva seal Nautilus. My two cents..

[s14roller]

All else equal, why wouldn’t a 10 year newer watch be worth more? People pay for what’s more desirable. If offered at the same price, which would you take? Now apply economics to that and you have your answer

[bob101]

A lot of people just expect newest is best and aren’t so concerned about the little dial variations over the years.
I think the original question was more regarding the price delta between 2008 Geneva seal nautilus to say 2020s piece being around 25 usd equivalent.
This for me isn’t justified as the difference is so little that an early one in nice condition would seem like good value proposition.

A lot of collectors would prefer Geneva seal nautilus and perhaps longer term these will be worth more as produced in smaller numbers and has the poincon de Geneve seal. Also the independent finishing standards arguably more strict than these days Patek standards. As the 5711 and 5712 have been produced in higher numbers, not sure of the early ones would ever be worth more we shall see. For collectors the 3712 for example more sought after as only produced less than a year and low production numbers. Slight differences on the dial too as well as the case.

For me I would go for a nice condition unpolished early piece and just wear and enjoy and only service if any movement issues.
The market price is probably as best as will find it for some time as the retail continues to go up. The grey premium is less than the price of a 6119 and there’s no chance you’ll get allocated a nautilus these days unless you’re buying many pieces at far more than that.

Anyway just buy what you like wear and enjoy and not worry about the market value too much I’d say. Look for a nice condition piece and go for iit. Life is too short.

[bob101]

Just to add a few things to note regarding variations forgot to add;
5712:
from 2019 onwards, the “dot” for hour markers at 5 and 7 o clock have been made bold and stand out more. Movement wise, all are 240 movement with the micro-rotor.
5711:
From around April 2019, the 5711 movement was upgraded to 330 sc with the hacking seconds.
Just little things that don’t really justify the increase really. Though some may prefer the hacking seconds. To note, I heard from one friend who put in nautilus for service and got the new dial, the newer 5712 with the hour markers, when they got their watch back. Perhaps due to some damage on the dial not sure. Mine returned with same dial. Feel free to add any little differences you spot!