Why are APs dropping so much faster despite the sale restrictions?

[Vince_76]

Originally Posted by VogelPhoenix

Is AP the market?

Is a swift trough the same as market collapsing?

No. 🤣

[Steele]

Let’s look at the facts.

1- anything over 15K is not moving quickly unless it’s a hype piece

2- even hype pieces are falling fast. 116500 black dial for 19-21k and 15500 going for 34k and Pepsis for 116710BLRO 16k range now

3- the market has turned and all those covid millionaires and travel restrictions and lock downs have gone away and crypto included is getting beaten up, so the money is being held onto by YES Speculators and the NEW watch guys.

4- AP is a more boutique brand still and a higher price point. It also doesn’t have the flex factor the average Joe Schmo can get for half the price with a Rolex.

5- let’s talk about the mistakes AP has made.
- To many women’s models launching weekly
- To many variations in the ROs they need to dial it back and focus on what the loyal customers want. Some kind of limit needs to happen
- now we have 20 versions of open works WTF and lots of them are 37mm new drops WTH why not make more of the Open works we are all begging for (AKA my wifey does NOT want and Openwork!)

[conkers]

Originally Posted by GW44

Very true Roger

Hope you're well and please keep posting here too!

All well thanks my friend. I certainly will keep posting but only as and when I have the time in between hoovering up special pieces from distressed/over-levered sellers! That’s a full time job at the moment.

[VogelPhoenix]

Originally Posted by Vince_76

Is AP the market?

The poster you quoted about the collapsing market was clearly referring to AP. I'm out of this thread - sorry I responded to the OP, won't make that mistake again.

[GW44]

Originally Posted by conkers

All well thanks my friend. I certainly will keep posting but only as and when I have the time in between hoovering up special pieces from distressed/over-levered sellers! That’s a full time job at the moment.

Haha, I've little to no doubt that the hoovering up is going rather well

[NiJaRo1225]

Originally Posted by VogelPhoenix

Ok, let's look at some numbers from the market indices at watchcharts.com:
Last 2yrs
Market: -25.8% PP: -31.1% Rolex: -19.4% AP: -31.3%
Last 6 months
Market: -3.3% PP: -3.5% Rolex: -2.6% AP: -4.2%

So, rather than Rolex and PP vs AP, it seems more like Rolex vs PP and AP. Why? Look at the 5yr numbers:
Rolex: +22% PP: +80.3% AP: +81.5%

So, using the info from that site, AP had the most insane run-up from 2018 on, closely followed by PP, with Rolex trailing far behind. Conversely, with the market returning to some form of sanity, AP and PP are on steeper decline from much higher highs than Rolex (but still maintain a much higher gain over 5 years).

No need to invoke false narratives around Travis Scott or Marvel.

I personally think that's a rubbish way to look at this hobby, but you brought up the charts.

Great post!


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[epc2]

Originally Posted by huncho

is this chatgpt? very interesting that this account comes back after a year and now every post sounds like ai lol

Originally Posted by conkers

Already banned it seems.

Hi Guys sorry for the confusion my account was hacked , I haven't posted in a long time , looks I might have clicked a pic or something , now my account has been restored.

As you can see in my post history I don't post about market , prices etc. , and haven't posted anything about AP since 2020 i think.

Thanks and sorry for the confusion.

My last post was on may 2023 , so all those recents posts are not mine.

If a moderator can please delete this post under my name I'll appreciate it.

[CarForHire]

It's been interesting to see the more expensive pieces holding out strong but nevertheless they are going down. Sport Patek's have been holding steady recently relative to the drop in the Jumbo for example. A heavily beat up 15202 just sold for under $40.. Good examples of like new 15202's in the mid 45's. Granted these were purchased before the price increases but they're getting a lot closer to msrp. 15202OR is also selling for a few grand over current msrp. Can't be said for the 5712/1R for example or many of the other Patek Sports.

Part of me wonders if it's just the type of person that is holding them knows since there aren't a lot produced they are holding out hoping prices maybe go up if the rumor discontinuation goes through. Once the 16202 was announced I feel the 15202 price went back down drastically. Besides a handful of us on here who really care about the brand cannot many can spot the difference between the two when looking close up.

[Halothane]

Originally Posted by VogelPhoenix

Ok, let's look at some numbers from the market indices at watchcharts.com:
Last 2yrs
Market: -25.8% PP: -31.1% Rolex: -19.4% AP: -31.3%
Last 6 months
Market: -3.3% PP: -3.5% Rolex: -2.6% AP: -4.2%

So, rather than Rolex and PP vs AP, it seems more like Rolex vs PP and AP. Why? Look at the 5yr numbers:
Rolex: +22% PP: +80.3% AP: +81.5%

So, using the info from that site, AP had the most insane run-up from 2018 on, closely followed by PP, with Rolex trailing far behind. Conversely, with the market returning to some form of sanity, AP and PP are on steeper decline from much higher highs than Rolex (but still maintain a much higher gain over 5 years).

No need to invoke false narratives around Travis Scott or Marvel.

I personally think that's a rubbish way to look at this hobby, but you brought up the charts.

Interesting numbers I haven’t seen before. Helpful info for once on these price investment threads, lol. Thanks for the post !

I would be fun to dive deeper but from this limited data , I would deduce that Rolex probably has the lowest beta (if we want to compare to volatility / stock terms ). While Patek and AP have taken a bigger hit recently this is expected with a more volatile security. But also, they could have the biggest uptick if the economy could improve.

They grey market prices are definitely tempting right now. I’m trying to hold off buying grey until after the election as I think that will determine which way prices will trend.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[SpeedyTuomas]

Originally Posted by Steele

Let’s look at the facts.

1- anything over 15K is not moving quickly unless it’s a hype piece

2- even hype pieces are falling fast. 116500 black dial for 19-21k and 15500 going for 34k and Pepsis for 116710BLRO 16k range now

3- the market has turned and all those covid millionaires and travel restrictions and lock downs have gone away and crypto included is getting beaten up, so the money is being held onto by YES Speculators and the NEW watch guys.

4- AP is a more boutique brand still and a higher price point. It also doesn’t have the flex factor the average Joe Schmo can get for half the price with a Rolex.

5- let’s talk about the mistakes AP has made.
- To many women’s models launching weekly
- To many variations in the ROs they need to dial it back and focus on what the loyal customers want. Some kind of limit needs to happen
- now we have 20 versions of open works WTF and lots of them are 37mm new drops WTH why not make more of the Open works we are all begging for (AKA my wifey does NOT want and Openwork!)

At least in steel 39mm openwork is missing and we have 37 and 41mm :(

[7sins]

Originally Posted by CarForHire

It's been interesting to see the more expensive pieces holding out strong but nevertheless they are going down. Sport Patek's have been holding steady recently relative to the drop in the Jumbo for example. A heavily beat up 15202 just sold for under $40.. Good examples of like new 15202's in the mid 45's. Granted these were purchased before the price increases but they're getting a lot closer to msrp. 15202OR is also selling for a few grand over current msrp. Can't be said for the 5712/1R for example or many of the other Patek Sports.

Part of me wonders if it's just the type of person that is holding them knows since there aren't a lot produced they are holding out hoping prices maybe go up if the rumor discontinuation goes through. Once the 16202 was announced I feel the 15202 price went back down drastically. Besides a handful of us on here who really care about the brand cannot many can spot the difference between the two when looking close up.

Would not say that is the case for sport pateks, look at 5712, 5726, 5980 they are all substantially down from a year ago. I am seeing 5712s low 80s today that were $110-120k+ 12 months ago. Same goes for a 5980/1R, those were $235k++ not long ago and are now in the 170s. Short of a 5740 or a new release nautilus like the 5712/1R you elude to, prices are coming down across the board. Speculators have left the market and we are left with a free market where prices now reflect the value of these watches. All while markets are at ALL TIME HIGHS, wait for the next correction and there will be tremendous buying opportunities for highly sought after watches. Can't wait, hope prices keep coming down to buy hand over fist.

[mobster600]

It is also the comparative value or relative value to other brands people consider, given a price point. For example if you had 40k to spend what are your options? Which AP's, Rolex, Patek's, Independents etc. It depends on how much value you see in the watch. I personally think you can get a lot more "Oomph" out of 40k with a Patek then an AP right now. Dont ask me what "Oomph" means lol. I think AP has too high of prices which all happened in the last 5 years. At retail, you're significantly better off buying a Patek or Rolex then AP. Lets also think, in 5 years would rather have a Patek or Rolex or AP? Patek and Rolex are timeless yet maybe less fun or interesting. AP is much more current and focuses on popular trends which maybe not popular or interesting in 5 years.

Its important to understand the brand before you buy the product.

[Gandor]

Originally Posted by mobster600

It is also the comparative value or relative value to other brands people consider, given a price point. For example if you had 40k to spend what are your options? Which AP's, Rolex, Patek's, Independents etc. It depends on how much value you see in the watch. I personally think you can get a lot more "Oomph" out of 40k with a Patek then an AP right now. Dont ask me what "Oomph" means lol. I think AP has too high of prices which all happened in the last 5 years. At retail, you're significantly better off buying a Patek or Rolex then AP. Lets also think, in 5 years would rather have a Patek or Rolex or AP? Patek and Rolex are timeless yet maybe less fun or interesting. AP is much more current and focuses on popular trends which maybe not popular or interesting in 5 years.

Its important to understand the brand before you buy the product.

Lots of “oomph” in a calatrava? What lol

And if we’re talking secondary 40k in AP can get you a neo vintage perpetual calendar chronograph…

[7sins]

Originally Posted by mobster600

I personally think you can get a lot more "Oomph" out of 40k with a Patek then an AP right now. Dont ask me what "Oomph" means lol. I think AP has too high of prices which all happened in the last 5 years. At retail, you're significantly better off buying a Patek or Rolex then AP. Lets also think, in 5 years would rather have a Patek or Rolex or AP? Patek and Rolex are timeless yet maybe less fun or interesting. AP is much more current and focuses on popular trends which maybe not popular or interesting in 5 years.

Its important to understand the brand before you buy the product.

Under $40k, at msrp, as you mention, tell me one Patek better than a 16202st? The latter being "timeless" since 1972.

[Steele]

Originally Posted by mobster600

It is also the comparative value or relative value to other brands people consider, given a price point. For example if you had 40k to spend what are your options? Which AP's, Rolex, Patek's, Independents etc. It depends on how much value you see in the watch. I personally think you can get a lot more "Oomph" out of 40k with a Patek then an AP right now. Dont ask me what "Oomph" means lol. I think AP has too high of prices which all happened in the last 5 years. At retail, you're significantly better off buying a Patek or Rolex then AP. Lets also think, in 5 years would rather have a Patek or Rolex or AP? Patek and Rolex are timeless yet maybe less fun or interesting. AP is much more current and focuses on popular trends which maybe not popular or interesting in 5 years.

Its important to understand the brand before you buy the product.

You actually gave me a very good perspective on AP I had not thought to consider. Great point on AP following trends.

I agree with this and compared especially to Patek sports models this makes very good sense

[Booth9999]

Originally Posted by SMD

It's not a red herring. Jesus, I will draw you a map -- the point was that they dont want to tie up a ton of capital when rates are high and the speed at which inventory turns is slow. The rainbow Daytona was the most extreme example I could make. Anything above 30-40k is a lot for a dealer to tie up for an extended period of time. Working capital is expensive now. BTW, I offered my blue dial nautilus to several dealers and they were not interested. But hey you already know everything.

Anyway, who cares. AP is going to zero. Market is collapsing. It's only AP, PP and Rolex are awesome and totally not dropping at all.

Why everyone wants to fight is beyond me. It's tedious and boring. I regret coming back here every time.

Well that escalated quickly. I think you are inferring a lot of that as it was not said directly.

[messikens]

Originally Posted by Booth9999

Well that escalated quickly. I think you are inferring a lot of that as it was not said directly.

Nothing like taking things too literally and then making exaggerated statements while getting worked up. Nothing beats the interweb .

Nice discussion in this forum / thread though (sans the random one offs of course)

[mobster600]

Originally Posted by 7sins

Under $40k, at msrp, as you mention, tell me one Patek better than a 16202st? The latter being "timeless" since 1972.

You have 0% chance of getting a 16202st at retail. Period. Not even a question. Its marketing carrot, a myth. They dangle that model in front of you, to move aging inventory or carry you through purchasing the entire catalogue.

I love the 16202st BTW the thinness is something else. The big rotor spinning so close the case back is incredible. Ive always loved the jumbo, it my fav AP of all time.

[mobster600]

Originally Posted by Gandor

Lots of “oomph” in a calatrava? What lol

And if we’re talking secondary 40k in AP can get you a neo vintage perpetual calendar chronograph…

Secondary Patek prices give you more value for money then AP right now. You can get a complication for less then 40k, closer to 35k. That ALOT of watch for 35k.

I love the Calatravas. To be fair your paying 40k for the bracelet with a Royal Oak.

[7sins]

Originally Posted by mobster600

You have 0% chance of getting a 16202st at retail. Period. Not even a question. Its marketing carrot, a myth. They dangle that model in front of you, to move aging inventory or carry you through purchasing the entire catalogue.

I love the 16202st BTW the thinness is something else. The big rotor spinning so close the case back is incredible. Ive always loved the jumbo, it my fav AP of all time.

0% chance if you are a brand new customer, which is still higher than getting a patek sport at retail as a walk in. If you have a relationship with AP and a SA who likes you, a jumbo is not difficult to buy at retail as several can attest to on this board. I've been given 3 jumbos in various metals and a 4th later this year from the boutique without much difficulty over the years. You also do not need to purchase the "entire catalogue", with a strong relationship, a jumbo should be your 4th or 5th AP, it is no marketing carrot, they produce ~1,000 jumbos each year that are not "mythical" and go to collectors. Unfortunately, if you end up with the wrong SA, then yes, they can take you through the "AP Journey" that inevitably involves you buying a watch you don't want.