5204 in grey

[llngoc]

I had a chance to try on a 5204 recently and is in love with it. I asked my local boutique if we can look into applying for one but while researching the piece, I came across quite a few unworn/new pieces in the secondary market with a substantial discount. My questions are:

- why would anyone go through the trouble and turn around to sell it unused with a substantial loss? This cannot be an individual case, as there are quite a few out there
- would you get a piece with this caliber at grey market as it will not be under your name? The grey price is 30+% off list.

[PhilLynott]

I would absolutely purchase grey for 30% lower personally and not worry about why the person was selling for that!

[ts3]

Those sellers will hopefully have gotten the watches they really wanted at the same time and, according to their math, have come out ahead in the aggregate vs buying what they really wanted grey. They will also have their name in the papers of what they really wanted.

If I wanted a 5204 and only that one I'd happily save the 30% and not have my name in the papers. That said, so far I have only bought a discontinued reference preowned.

[ChetBaker]

I would absolutely do it. That’s too much money to pass up

[Pw92676]

I suspect there is an artificial excess supply on market and many are duplicates being listed by several sellers.
I also suspect some people buy for bundles and offload the bait. I don’t get that logic especially with 5204.

I used to think papers were very important, especially for sentimental pieces. But hard to apply this logic to pieces that are not regularly available or when the delta is this high. If I wanted to see my name so intimately affiliated with the watch that bad, I’d tattoo my name on my wrist. Hell if I find an unworn 5208 for a steal of a deal, I’ll buy it and change name to what’s on the papers

[llngoc]

Originally Posted by Pw92676

I suspect there is an artificial excess supply on market and many are duplicates being listed by several sellers.
I also suspect some people buy for bundles and offload the bait. I don’t get that logic especially with 5204.

I used to think papers were very important, especially for sentimental pieces. But hard to apply this logic to pieces that are not regularly available or when the delta is this high. If I wanted to see my name so intimately affiliated with the watch that bad, I’d tattoo my name on my wrist. Hell if I find an unworn 5208 for a steal of a deal, I’ll buy it and change name to what’s on the papers

I also suspect the same. One watch may be duplicated by a few dealers who are hoping to get a customer. However, I also checked Japanese dealers and saw the transactions did happen at this price.

My dealer is not into bundling or promising future pieces. I have the 5204 and 5740 expressed as my current interest. I also mentioned that I would like to acquire a 5078 type repeater when the right one comes along. He is very receptive for me trying to apply for a 5204 but our discussion on my interest pieces stop at that.

I love the 5204 and have a personal reason for a 5740. (Like it a lot but not love). Going grey on the 5204 seems to make more sense if I can find a new/unworn piece at the right time.

But am still curious why an application piece would just turn up in grey as soon as it is delivered. What kind of Nautilius could have been bundled for it to make sense…

[TunaTuna]

You have to buy a watch like this pre owned, definitely.

Don't go grey though, be careful!

[llngoc]

Originally Posted by TunaTuna

You have to buy a watch like this pre owned, definitely.

Don't go grey though, be careful!

How is grey different than pre-owned?

[GB-man]

There are unscrupulous dealers around the world that bundle pieces to resellers. This is one they want moved so they put it with a few sport pieces is my guess. Most Patek grand comps don’t seem to hold value well currently which is awesome for picking one up secondary. That’s exactly what I would do.

[jon_jon]

The number of people who purchase Patek PCCs and above are fairly small. Some are genuine watch collectors although I suspect many are not. Regular watch collector here may never understand what goes on with sales of these watches. As long as the pre-owned watches are a full set, they usually offer a nice discount to retail new pricing.

The benefit of making an application through the AD and waiting for a new piece is that Patek gets to vet you as a genuine watch collector and may give you better chances in the future to be allocated popular pieces.

[Calatrava r]

I do not believe the 5204 is an application piece. For some not readily apparent reason to me this one really takes a hit from retail losing a third or more of value on the retail used market price. So, you can imagine what these dealers will buy one for wholesale used with the typical margin of at least 25%.

Why do people buy them? Many folks want to create relationships and do not intend ever sell the watches, so aftermarket values are irrelevant. Just as important, aftermarket values fluctuate over time, and these are very low production pieces. Look at 3940s, traded in the low 30s for years now complete gold sets are 90 or more. I think the only place for the 5204 to go is up in price on the used market. What makes the current watch market so tough is ADs are constrained now to sell at full retail. Historically, they never did and could discount a model such as this to a regular customer up to 35% with out of state shipping no tax. Now you have to pay the tax. It will be interesting to see where the market trends settle when the Covid boom is finally fully behind us.

[llngoc]

Originally Posted by Calatrava r

I do not believe the 5204 is an application piece. For some not readily apparent reason to me this one really takes a hit from retail losing a third or more of value on the retail used market price. So, you can imagine what these dealers will buy one for wholesale used with the typical margin of at least 25%.

Why do people buy them? Many folks want to create relationships and do not intend ever sell the watches, so aftermarket values are irrelevant. Just as important, aftermarket values fluctuate over time, and these are very low production pieces. Look at 3940s, traded in the low 30s for years now complete gold sets are 90 or more. I think the only place for the 5204 to go is up in price on the used market. What makes the current watch market so tough is ADs are constrained now to sell at full retail. Historically, they never did and could discount a model such as this to a regular customer up to 35% with out of state shipping no tax. Now you have to pay the tax. It will be interesting to see where the market trends settle when the Covid boom is finally fully behind us.

I was at the Patek boutique and I am quite sure that it is an application piece. The SA is working to send in the application. 5270 is a threshold for application. Anything above 5270 should be an application piece.

I agree that the only reason to get a 5204 from the boutique is to build the relationship. Hence my hesitation to go through the boutique as I only have two other pieces of Patek which I am interested in. And both pieces are also application pieces which also take a hit in secondary. For me the only reason is so I can have the typed certificate with my name on it. But paying 100k+ more for my name on a piece of paper seems high.

My original question is to why anyone would go through the application process and probably lose $100k+ to sell it a grey dealer right away.