Is Supply Really a Global Issue?

[georgekart]

The answer to your question is layered. Is the supply a global issue? Absolutely. Is it the same everywhere? Absolutely not. For example, you're not getting a SS Daytona at retail with no prior history anywhere in the world. You're just not. That being said, in some locations a SS Datejust may not be available on the spot and you may have to wait a month or two, whereas some other places you might be able to walk in and buy a Datejust. Don't think you're getting a GMT without a waitlist anywhere, but if I had to make a guess, GRNR will end up being the most produced out the bunch and the hype will die down so maybe you'll be lucky to get on the waitlist and source one within the next year or two.

[Krash]

Originally Posted by njlam

Is this analysis or guessing?


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It’s a little of both.

They make 1.2 million watches. If they double production, that amounts to 2.4 million. So that’s simple math.

My guess is that there would still be a supply vs demand problem even if they doubled production.

Let’s extrapolate this out to individual ADs. If each AD got twice the amount of watches, would that move the needle? I don’t think so.


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[77T]

There is an element to this availability question that goes beyond a two dimensional supply/demand model. That element is "place". It represents the distribution model.

In England, Rolex UK gets a smaller slice of production than Asia or USA. Lists don't matter much if less product is arriving at any given place in your country.

I have an idea for the OP and those in likewise circumstances...

There has been an uptick in ADs losing their Rolex contract. Most of them have new Rolexes in the safe. That inventory will get sold after the expiration of the contract as "Pre-Owned Never Worn Timepiece" CPO (not the Rolex CPO but the jeweler's own version).

For example, if you'd like a never worn bi-metal RG/SS CHNR, one is for sale locally by an ex-AD for $22K (almost $5K over MSRP).

If you consider the games some ADs play with "share of wallet" (coercive purchases of jewelry), that $5K over MSRP is a pittance.

Just my

[ChronoZach]

Op, Mate, things have really changed in the past 10 years, I had a similar experience as I was away for a while during the craze of Covid. Now is all about spend history and exhibition only signs. But there is hope you can start a relationship with a new AD or go to the AD where you purchased your last Rolex. The process will require some patience and luck on the piece you are looking for, you may get lucky as some on TRF do and get the call quickly. Stock is getting better, not with all models. Try it can’t hurt.

Now, if you want it right now then a grey dealer is the way to go, instant gratification!

Cheers,

[rolexnerd]

London has stock but they will only sell to those who have purchase history or are considered VIP. Same everywhere in the world.

[azmousss]

my feeling is in europe our waiting times stretch into the years . i waited 3 years for a date just fluted bezel and jubilee bracelet but in america it seems its always a question of months and i feel thats due to the fact its simply a bigger market and more important market to cater to.