Talking Stocks 2.0

[BraveBold]

DOGE gains YTD are approximately 3x btc. Clearly logic is driving this market.

Powell’s comments are inconsistent.

His thoughts: BTC is not a store of value due to volatility. It is a digital analogue to gold.

These are somewhat hard to reconcile based on market perceptions. He noted also it is speculative. Gold is too but has generally been accumulated less for speculation than as a hedging tool. Finally, little direct influence from the position or the person on relevant policies, especially in this case…

The BTC reaction is therefore more about general sentiment than specific, rational response to commentary. Again, DOGE is up more than 350% ytd as are many crapcoins. Hopefully anyone holding BTC can accept major losses to go alongside these major gains.

MSTR is such an obvious short - but given mania and detachment from reality can persist, not a short position I’ll take. Exacerbated by potential for sloppy policies given “that” atmosphere…Put options are not an economic way to gain exposure - the implied vol is incredibly high. You are paying sizable premium even with strikes 90%+ below its current price over short/medium periods (1-2 months to expiration).

[ButtButt]

Anyone selling at these prices? I found some XRP I forgot I had and dumped it all. Really tempted to press sell on half of my BTC/ETH holdings at these prices too and forget about the other half for another 10 years and see what happens.

[huncho]

Originally Posted by BraveBold

DOGE gains YTD are approximately 3x btc. Clearly logic is driving this market.

Powell’s comments are inconsistent.

His thoughts: BTC is not a store of value due to volatility. It is a digital analogue to gold.

These are somewhat hard to reconcile based on market perceptions. He noted also it is speculative. Gold is too but has generally been accumulated less for speculation than as a hedging tool. Finally, little direct influence from the position or the person on relevant policies, especially in this case…

The BTC reaction is therefore more about general sentiment than specific, rational response to commentary. Again, DOGE is up more than 350% ytd as are many crapcoins. Hopefully anyone holding BTC can accept major losses to go alongside these major gains.

MSTR is such an obvious short - but given mania and detachment from reality can persist, not a short position I’ll take. Exacerbated by potential for sloppy policies given “that” atmosphere…Put options are not an economic way to gain exposure - the implied vol is incredibly high. You are paying sizable premium even with strikes 90%+ below its current price over short/medium periods (1-2 months to expiration).

yeah but doge is still down from 2021 so ytd doesn't mean much here

i agree that Powells comment was contradictory and so far every time we've had a war scare or political issue btc has flushed. the south korea martial law on tuesday was the latest example of how btc is still not the hedge/store of value that gold is during times like that

not sure how to feel about mstr, it trades at a premium to their assets but they are "earning" money through yields and providing a service that no one else can (for now, and it requires a good environment), so i feel like that premium argument may be misunderstood but time will tel. their biggest bond purchasers right now are vanguard, blackrock and allianz. about $10b among the 3

i'm still holding it at a $135 average but part of me feels like that could be bitcoins next black swan

[BraveBold]

Originally Posted by huncho

yeah but doge is still down from 2021 so ytd doesn't mean much here

i agree that Powells comment was contradictory and so far every time we've had a war scare or political issue btc has flushed. the south korea martial law on tuesday was the latest example of how btc is still not the hedge/store of value that gold is during times like that

not sure how to feel about mstr, it trades at a premium to their assets but they are "earning" money through yields and providing a service that no one else can (for now, and it requires a good environment), so i feel like that premium argument may be misunderstood but time will tel. their biggest bond purchasers right now are vanguard, blackrock and allianz. about $10b among the 3

i'm still holding it at a $135 average but part of me feels like that could be bitcoins next black swan

YTD price action is indeed relevant - DOGE is up 3x BTC over the year and reflects the general market behavior (excessive risk taking). It is all related.

MSTR and other highly leveraged buyers are big marginal buyers and drivers of BTC. The inflows from ETFs chasing this latest FOMO action is not likely sustainable. I continue to hold against my better (value) judgment but much of that is now centered on poor policy choices given Musk et al have the President’s ear… as announcements occur we could see massive spikes (and moves down). A durable policy choice in favor of BTC may be socially and economically disastrous (never mind the environmental cost) but I cannot take that outcome off the table.

[brandrea]

A small point keying off of @bravebold’s remarks above … but stocks related to power generation are great long term, low volatility stocks to own. Policy driven mandates will change depending on the government of the day, but population growth and the need for more power is a long term trend me thinks.

This thread contains a lot of information that while interesting, is way beyond most of my comprehension if I’m being honest.

I’ll stick to owning things I understand, railroads, utilities, real estate, all that boring monopoly stuff

[superdog]

Feels like a great time to short tsla.

Up 64% since the election. Simply due to his association.

Wish I had the stones for it. But this particular run makes especially little sense.

[huncho]

Originally Posted by superdog

Feels like a great time to short tsla.

Up 64% since the election. Simply due to his association.

Wish I had the stones for it. But this particular run makes especially little sense.

shorting tesla feels like the easiest way to blow yourself up. no one has ever been successful at it

i'm just enjoying the ride, mentioned it here at around 210 but that was also when everyone and their mother was saying it will go below 150 by eoy

it's probably overvalued right now but i also don't think the market was pricing in the fact that it's an ai/robotics/energy company made up of a lot of smaller companies that have everything built in house from scratch, and not just a car company during the last 3 years. it was mainly flat during the massive ai rally despite being a huge player in that world for a while and it's probably because they were too busy shorting it to shit due to elons political stances and tweets. those funds are probably all sitting on massive losses now

still feel like exciting times are ahead for the company with optimus and the robotaxi/FSD. it's the one company i'm most bullish on for the future. unfortunately the way it moves up so aggressively makes it hard to average into

[GB-man]

Originally Posted by superdog

Feels like a great time to short tsla.

Up 64% since the election. Simply due to his association.

Wish I had the stones for it. But this particular run makes especially little sense.

I think, but would defer to people who actively follow the company, that the run is pertaining to the incoming administrations promise to end the EV tax credit which would essentially pull the ladder up behind Tesla in the EV space as they have the economies of scale.

But I hear you there man. The company I touted here palantir is up an insane PE multiple of like 350+. Seems like an obvious short candidate but the PLTR truthers want the believe it’s the AI Microsoft of the next decade. Maybe it is I have no idea.

[superdog]

Originally Posted by huncho

shorting tesla feels like the easiest way to blow yourself up. no one has ever been successful at it

i'm just enjoying the ride, mentioned it here at around 210 but that was also when everyone and their mother was saying it will go below 150 by eoy

it's probably overvalued right now but i also don't think the market was pricing in the fact that it's an ai/robotics/energy company made up of a lot of smaller companies that have everything built in house from scratch, and not just a car company during the last 3 years. it was mainly flat during the massive ai rally despite being a huge player in that world for a while and it's probably because they were too busy shorting it to shit due to elons political stances and tweets. those funds are probably all sitting on massive losses now

still feel like exciting times are ahead for the company with optimus and the robotaxi/FSD. it's the one company i'm most bullish on for the future. unfortunately the way it moves up so aggressively makes it hard to average into

I agree. Which is why I don’t have the stones for it.

But regardless of what anyone says, I just don’t see how anyone can justify the recent run up. The extent of it anyway.

On this, and a few other companies. I’m just a buy and hold guy anyway. I don’t play games that I don’t fully understand.

I very much hope you are right on the upcoming exciting times. I’m cautiously optimistic.

I do think you will have your opportunity to average in before long. I’ll likely do the same when the time comes. If it comes, which I truly hope it doesn’t.

Edit to add that I realize many have shorted tsla to an unfortunate outcome. But eventually it will pay off to someone bold enough to do it.

[superdog]

Originally Posted by GB-man

I think, but would defer to people who actively follow the company, that the run is pertaining to the incoming administrations promise to end the EV tax credit which would essentially pull the ladder up behind Tesla in the EV space as they have the economies of scale.

But I hear you there man. The company I touted here palantir is up an insane PE multiple of like 350+. Seems like an obvious short candidate but the PLTR truthers want the believe it’s the AI Microsoft of the next decade. Maybe it is I have no idea.

Multiples in general right now are unprecedented. I don’t see how any of this is sustainable.

The bulls keep stampeding and I think it’s great. Even while being fully skeptical.

[enjoythemusic]

WOW, wonder what the Swiss Nat Bank are seeing to cut by 50 instead of 25 basis points. Timepiece sales do affect the country's economy.

[SDGT3]

Originally Posted by enjoythemusic

WOW, wonder what the Swiss Nat Bank are seeing to cut by 50 instead of 25 basis points. Timepiece sales do affect the country's economy.

IDK, but I'll be in Zurich in a couple weeks so I fully welcome a better exchange rate!

[enjoythemusic]

To be fair, of the currency genre, i feel the Swiss version is quite good. Will be interesting to see the next timepiece exports report.

[7sins]

Originally Posted by SDGT3

IDK, but I'll be in Zurich in a couple weeks so I fully welcome a better exchange rate!

Go to Sonnenberg when you are there, one of my all time favorite restaurants.

[Krash]

Broadcom was up $44 per share yesterday. I probably owe my financial advisor a nice lunch or dinner. But that’s his job…





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[SDGT3]

Originally Posted by 7sins

Go to Sonnenberg when you are there, one of my all time favorite restaurants.

Love it when someone has first hand recommendations. I've already looked it up online and will make reservations for one of the nights we're there. Thanks for the tip, B!

[huncho]

tesla getting pretty scary at this point

[enjoythemusic]

Quite a good year.

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[BraveBold]

Okay, so as I said a few months ago, continuing to hold Palantir. Purchased at about $8/share and sitting at solid gains. Market cap implies absurdity, much like NVDA had implied some permanent moat (which I criticized as unrealistic).

I am generally a staunch buy and hold but this is past the point of ridiculous.

What says the forum?

[Krash]

Originally Posted by BraveBold

Okay, so as I said a few months ago, continuing to hold Palantir. Purchased at about $8/share and sitting at solid gains. Market cap implies absurdity, much like NVDA had implied some permanent moat (which I criticized as unrealistic).

I am generally a staunch buy and hold but this is past the point of ridiculous.

What says the forum?

I remember thinking I should buy PLTR this time last year. I can’t frckn believe I never pulled the trigger. Another missed opportunity on a long list of missed opportunities.


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[BroncoOne]

Originally Posted by BraveBold

Okay, so as I said a few months ago, continuing to hold Palantir. Purchased at about $8/share and sitting at solid gains. Market cap implies absurdity, much like NVDA had implied some permanent moat (which I criticized as unrealistic).

I am generally a staunch buy and hold but this is past the point of ridiculous.

What says the forum?

Take some profits, let some ride.
Plenty of people got rich by selling “too soon” to lock in gains. Just plan to mitigate for the tax impact

[7sins]

Originally Posted by BraveBold

Okay, so as I said a few months ago, continuing to hold Palantir. Purchased at about $8/share and sitting at solid gains. Market cap implies absurdity, much like NVDA had implied some permanent moat (which I criticized as unrealistic).

I am generally a staunch buy and hold but this is past the point of ridiculous.

What says the forum?

Why not write covered calls on a portion of your position? If you write it on a larger share, you can take a portion of the income to buy OTM calls and profit should the stock continue to rally. I remember when no one wanted this when it IPO'd a few years ago. Hard to draw a parallel to NVDA when their revenue is 30x PLTR and the former, has it a bit easier to grow into their multiple IMO. Congrats on a great trade!

[hambone1983]

I picked up some Reddit in November. Man, what a fun stock. The swings are insane, I've been writing covered calls and rolling out & up ever since.

I've used covered calls as a way to boost return for 40 years. So much better liquidity now than back in the day. In the 80s a market order was an invitation to steal. But over that time calls account for just under 10% of my total return.

[BraveBold]

Originally Posted by 7sins

Why not write covered calls on a portion of your position? If you write it on a larger share, you can take a portion of the income to buy OTM calls and profit should the stock continue to rally. I remember when no one wanted this when it IPO'd a few years ago. Hard to draw a parallel to NVDA when their revenue is 30x PLTR and the former, has it a bit easier to grow into their multiple IMO. Congrats on a great trade!

Considered a bear call spread when it hit $90 or so but my central tendency is buy and hold with limited use of options. Also totally forgot about it, distracted by life.

I have plenty to say about NVIDIA and Palantir (will spare people), having originally purchased shares in the former back in 1999 (selling far too early) and having strong awareness of the latter for years prior to IPO due to personal contacts working there. Hardware + ecosystem vs software + relationship stickiness. Continue to hold both despite valuation reservations.

I think anyone considering entry into the space now just needs open eyes on where sentiment stands today and what history tells us about unabashed optimism in ANY investment theme.

[BraveBold]

Originally Posted by Krash

I remember thinking I should buy PLTR this time last year. I can’t frckn believe I never pulled the trigger. Another missed opportunity on a long list of missed opportunities.


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Hindsight always has the lowest return on investment.

I bought into Carvana after it tanked and during talks of potential bankruptcy. While I am usually buy and hold I do go through and make general reallocations across sectors (and asset classes) and made the mistake of exiting my entire position far too early. I will not beat myself up over any of it. My investment portfolio and past actions are as much about my psychology and holistic choices around personal stress, risk tolerance and satisfaction with conservative returns on my existing wealth. I am entirely aware of it, but believe “psychological returns” (ie happiness) are paramount over maximizing financial ones.

Long story short, don’t sweat it as it happens to everyone and could be worse!

[austinp]

20 consecutive up days for META. Well done Zuc!


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[BraveBold]

Originally Posted by BroncoOne

Take some profits, let some ride.
Plenty of people got rich by selling “too soon” to lock in gains. Just plan to mitigate for the tax impact

Prudent approach.

[superdog]

https://www.yahoo.com/finance/news/b...180002109.html

[SDGT3]

Just heard on Bloomberg that Costco is at over 62 P/E ratio!! I didn't believe it and had to look it up. Sure enough, it's true. Add in +16.3% YTD rise in under 2 months as well. As a comparison, MAG 7 stocks combined are at a generally perceived overvalued 30 P/E. What gives?

[Krash]

Originally Posted by SDGT3

Just heard on Bloomberg that Costco is at over 62 P/E ratio!! I didn't believe it and had to look it up. Sure enough, it's true. Add in +16.3% YTD rise in under 2 months as well. As a comparison, MAG 7 stocks combined are at a generally perceived overvalued 30 P/E. What gives?

Yeah, I never understood why it’s okay for some stocks to have very high P/E ratios, but then they make a big deal over the P/E ratios for other stocks that don’t seem that high.

FWIW, JP Morgan and Bank of America are both around 14. Historically, both banks have had very low P/E ratios relative to other stocks. But I suppose there are other factors that impact bank stocks.


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