Talking Stocks 2.0

[BraveBold]

Originally Posted by superdog

https://www.yahoo.com/finance/news/b...180002109.html

Yeah, we are approaching a half decade of bubble (or, more precisely, talk of a bubble). Perhaps longer…

The US consumer seems willing to keep hustling for the next $ (and in turn spending it) even if part of the hustle is to open more credit cards lol.

[emersm]

PLTR - Buy or sell opinions?

[Krash]

Originally Posted by emersm

PLTR - Buy or sell opinions?

I expect it to quickly recover from today’s 12% dip. But I’m sure how much higher it goes after that. I still think the time to buy was this time last year.

I’m also thinking about selling half of my NVDA shares.


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[BraveBold]

Originally Posted by Krash

I expect it to quickly recover from today’s 12% dip. But I’m sure how much higher it goes after that. I still think the time to buy was this time last year.

I’m also thinking about selling half of my NVDA shares.


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I am happy with when I bought it - October 2022. Allows me to take a chunk off the table and only pay LT cap gains…

In a world where Tesla is valued as a trillion$+ company, impossible to have a secure grip on where prices may go (intrinsic value be damned).

[BraveBold]

Speaking of cap gains vs OI taxes and market movements, I made a big move into BABA in March of last year.

Considering taking a sliver off my position as it is my largest holding… but have a few weeks until it falls into LT vs ST gains. Personally it would likely only be a modest trimming… but one of those things where timing can meaningfully matter.

None of the above (or any of my posts) is investment, tax or legal advice.

[emersm]

Originally Posted by Krash

I expect it to quickly recover from today’s 12% dip. But I’m sure how much higher it goes after that. I still think the time to buy was this time last year.

I’m also thinking about selling half of my NVDA shares.


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I dumped my shares yesterday as all of the negative news was coming in.

A little to volatile for me, right now.

[Baco Noir]

We retired 2 years ago and are still invested in a 70/30 stock/bond portfolio. I have kept a year's worth of living expenses in money market accounts so if there was a big sell off / correction, we had some recovery time before we needed to sell other investments.

With the current state of world politics, the historically high PEs, and watching Buffet build up high cash reserves over the last year, my fear of a large market correction is ramping up, so I just took us to a more conservative stance. I just sold off 20% of our portfolio and bought a 3 year annuity.

[BraveBold]

Originally Posted by emersm

I dumped my shares yesterday as all of the negative news was coming in.

A little to volatile for me, right now.

For someone buying or holding on the basis of value (and thus future appreciation) the worst news was the incredible valuation and price.

It is why I posted a week ago about the ridiculous price and quandary.

[huncho]

i love how there's mass panic now because walmart said consumers are struggling bad yesterday. total breaking news there

massive sell off while TLT is up after the fed spent the last 2 months saying they have to pause. think for the most part they've done well but looks like they're backed into a corner yet again. if only their entire policy didn't revolve around reacting to old data

[BraveBold]

Originally Posted by huncho

i love how there's mass panic now because walmart said consumers are struggling bad yesterday. total breaking news there

massive sell off while TLT is up after the fed spent the last 2 months saying they have to pause. think for the most part they've done well but looks like they're backed into a corner yet again. if only their entire policy didn't revolve around reacting to old data

If consumer spending (finally) falls off a cliff, inflation will likely quickly evaporate as we don’t see structural reasons for stagflation, other than those self-imposed (tariffs).

[SDGT3]

Originally Posted by huncho

i love how there's mass panic now because walmart said consumers are struggling bad yesterday. total breaking news there

massive sell off while TLT is up after the fed spent the last 2 months saying they have to pause. think for the most part they've done well but looks like they're backed into a corner yet again. if only their entire policy didn't revolve around reacting to old data

I think part of it is the realization that retail spending (off .9% in January alone) is seeping from the lower to middle class consumer. Jobs layoffs in both the private and public sector are increasing as well.

Originally Posted by BraveBold

If consumer spending (finally) falls off a cliff, inflation will likely quickly evaporate as we don’t see structural reasons for stagflation, other than those self-imposed (tariffs).

Agree that less consumer spending "should" soften inflation. I wouldn't worry so much about tariffs just yet. So far, everything has been talk and positioning. All that has actually been implemented is 10% on Chinese goods and with the devaluing of the Yuan, it's unlikely the end consumer will see any change in prices.

Oil down, wholesale spot gas down, 10 year long bonds down, it all points to good news for the economy.

[BraveBold]

Originally Posted by SDGT3

I think part of it is the realization that retail spending (off .9% in January alone) is seeping from the lower to middle class consumer. Jobs layoffs in both the private and public sector are increasing as well.



Agree that less consumer spending "should" soften inflation. I wouldn't worry so much about tariffs just yet. So far, everything has been talk and positioning. All that has actually been implemented is 10% on Chinese goods and with the devaluing of the Yuan, it's unlikely the end consumer will see any change in prices.

Oil down, wholesale spot gas down, 10 year long bonds down, it all points to good news for the economy.

Do not underestimate the impact of moral suasion (Fed govt / Treasury to Fed Reserve and also general market participants). Combine with less drastic funding plans (less supply risk) and it is a more favorable backdrop for bonds.

Layer on consumer spending risk… and I would not be surprised if we see further longer duration rallying through 2025…

As for tariffs, everyone is looking at long rates (and implications to mortgage rates in a further softening housing market). Anything that stokes inflation too far will likely be curtailed - but tariffs are inflationary. Posturing aside… and there is the vicious cycle of expectations too. We saw some of that in the data this week…

[BraveBold]

Originally Posted by BroncoOne

Take some profits, let some ride.
Plenty of people got rich by selling “too soon” to lock in gains. Just plan to mitigate for the tax impact

Thought I responded earlier but this “prudent” approach is the one I ultimately went with. Sold off 2/3 at around $115/share and holding the last 1/3rd. Thankful it was all off a 2022 purchase so LTCG.

I had set a re-entry point at $70/share but may reconsider.

[bp1000]

I only have 12% invested currently. The rest is now in cash.

Just too much change, too quickly to keep gambling.

People are buying the tickers and they don’t understand AI.

We are in an AI bubble and it is propping up the valuations of most modern tech businesses. The actual capability in practical applications of AI is massively overstated because they have been caught in a lie and they are continuing to peddle it.
The warning shot on this was FSD by Tesla. Which is now 3 generations beyond what was originally promised.

Supposedly smart people have significantly oversold what Ai can do. It will crash before it pays big.

And it will pay big, because productivity will increase 10 fold say once it is correctly implemented with a significant reduction in operating costs. But this will not happen until SMR and next gen energy storage is a reality. This is in 2033 and we will burst big time between now and then.

[BraveBold]

We will see how things play out.

[austinp]

Originally Posted by bp1000

I only have 12% invested currently. The rest is now in cash.

Just too much change, too quickly to keep gambling.

People are buying the tickers and they don’t understand AI.

We are in an AI bubble and it is propping up the valuations of most modern tech businesses. The actual capability in practical applications of AI is massively overstated because they have been caught in a lie and they are continuing to peddle it.
The warning shot on this was FSD by Tesla. Which is now 3 generations beyond what was originally promised.

Supposedly smart people have significantly oversold what Ai can do. It will crash before it pays big.

And it will pay big, because productivity will increase 10 fold say once it is correctly implemented with a significant reduction in operating costs. But this will not happen until SMR and next gen energy storage is a reality. This is in 2033 and we will burst big time between now and then.

What information are you looking for as a sign to start adding your cash back into the market?


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[vipereaper30]

Originally Posted by bp1000

The actual capability in practical applications of AI is massively overstated because they have been caught in a lie and they are continuing to peddle it.

Is there one lie overall or are you alluding to multiple overstatements of capability?

On the energy note some of those SMR types have had an epic 6 months but are really off highs. Anyone here know these companies or sector well, thinking like OKLO, SMR, NNE, etc?