Tariff imposed and Watch Prices in the USA

[nachopc]

Originally Posted by Tools

But not a tax on your income or wealth. It is a "tax" on those who wish to import goods for sale, while goods produced here, or from favorable nation countries remain unchanged.

skip the Brie and go Tilamook

skip the Champagne and go Napa Valley sparkling

Skip the Pirellis and go Goodyear

Buy a Vortic or Shinola instead of a Rolex


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[explorer42]

The tariffs are based on economic unfairness and designed to boost American manufacturing. So US manufactured brands like Kobold, Oak & Oscar etc should see real benefits now that the unfair competitive advantage that Swiss brands like Rolex have enjoyed is levelled out? I expect to see the sub-forums for those types of US brands start to increase in popularity and a significant uptick in ‘got the call from the Kobold AD’ type posts etc.

The alternative, of course, would be for Rolex to shift its manufacturing operations to the US. Might be quite expensive to set up, but I’m sure Rolex would absorb that rather than looking to recover the cost through increasing prices. They’d have to remove the words ‘Swiss Made’ from the dial, of course.

[swiss_seth]

Originally Posted by cyind

What’s with all the ChatGPT in this thread.

brave new world of people replacing their brain with AI. Expect MUCH more of this is 5-15 years.


lol


It's going to be a interesting ride. Einstein said he didn't know what WWIII would be fought with, well thats AI.

[swiss_seth]

Originally Posted by explorer42

The tariffs are based on economic unfairness and designed to boost American manufacturing. So US manufactured brands like Kobold, Oak & Oscar etc should see real benefits now that the unfair competitive advantage that Swiss brands like Rolex have enjoyed is levelled out? I expect to see the sub-forums for those types of US brands start to increase in popularity and a significant uptick in ‘got the call from the Kobold AD’ type posts etc.

The alternative, of course, would be for Rolex to shift its manufacturing operations to the US. Might be quite expensive to set up, but I’m sure Rolex would absorb that rather than looking to recover the cost through increasing prices. They’d have to remove the words ‘Swiss Made’ from the dial, of course.

You don't understand Switzerland

[explorer42]

Originally Posted by swiss_seth

You don't understand Switzerland

I understand that the borders of Modern Switzerland and its neutrality were established at the Congress of Vienna in 1815. But you are right, I haven’t kept up to date with everything that has happened since to fully understand Switzerland.

It’s the penguins of Heard and McDonald Islands that I feel sorry for. How are they going to move their manufacturing operations to the US? But I’m with DT on this one…it’s about time those freeloading penguins are held to account.

[warrior]

LOL. Bad Penguins!

Originally Posted by explorer42

I understand that the borders of Modern Switzerland and its neutrality were established at the Congress of Vienna in 1815. But you are right, I haven’t kept up to date with everything that has happened since to fully understand Switzerland.

It’s the penguins of Heard and McDonald Islands that I feel sorry for. How are they going to move their manufacturing operations to the US? But I’m with DT on this one…it’s about time those freeloading penguins are held to account.

[Michigan_State]

Rumor has it that the penguins are gobbling up all the in demand models. Bathing in cash they are, because of that unfair stuff that’s going on.

[JRell]

Originally Posted by warrior

LOL. Bad Penguins!

I just saw that! How can we take these tariffs seriously and yet we are imposing tariffs on these penguins.

[FloydRedford]

Originally Posted by explorer42

The tariffs are based on economic unfairness and designed to boost American manufacturing. So US manufactured brands like Kobold, Oak & Oscar etc should see real benefits now that the unfair competitive advantage that Swiss brands like Rolex have enjoyed is levelled out? I expect to see the sub-forums for those types of US brands start to increase in popularity and a significant uptick in ‘got the call from the Kobold AD’ type posts etc.

The alternative, of course, would be for Rolex to shift its manufacturing operations to the US. Might be quite expensive to set up, but I’m sure Rolex would absorb that rather than looking to recover the cost through increasing prices. They’d have to remove the words ‘Swiss Made’ from the dial, of course.

It should only take a few months for companies to build US manufacturing facilities and get them up and running and with a cheap American labor force. And then there’s the sourcing of raw materials…

Oh geez… I guess I should have thought this through more thoroughly, unlike our dear leader.


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[FloydRedford]

Originally Posted by JRell

I just saw that! How can we take these tariffs seriously and yet we are imposing tariffs on these penguins.

We’ve been treated so unfairly by the penguins. Only stupid people would continue to let them rob us blind.


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[explorer42]

Originally Posted by FloydRedford

We’ve been treated so unfairly by the penguins. Only stupid people would continue to let them rob us blind.


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Yep…the problem with the world is that the intelligent people are full of doubts, while the stupid ones are full of confidence.

[Calatrava r]

Originally Posted by FloydRedford

It should only take a few months for companies to build US manufacturing facilities and get them up and running and with a cheap American labor force. And then there’s the sourcing of raw materials…

Oh geez… I guess I should have thought this through more thoroughly, unlike our dear leader.


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You raise some excellent concerns for sure. Nothing happens overnight.

[JRell]

Originally Posted by FloydRedford

We’ve been treated so unfairly by the penguins. Only stupid people would continue to let them rob us blind.


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I say the US just so stop exporting fish to these penguins. Watch how quick they change their tune.

[warrior]

Or put another way and spoken by one of your countrymen…” the whole problem with the world is that fools and fanatics are always so certain of themselves and wiser people so full of doubts”

—Bertrand Russell

Originally Posted by explorer42

Yep…the problem with the world is that the intelligent people are full of doubts, while the stupid ones are full of confidence.

[davek35]

There is no way a Rolex or Swatch group could relocate in the USA. Way to many specialty companies in the orbit of manufacturing to do so. It's kind of in the blood of the people in those regions to care about watch making. It's been going on for decades. Not so in the USA.

And to be suggested to 'just buy' a Traska/Monta/Farer. .. If prices go up on Swiss or Chinese watches, domestic watch makers in the USA will raise their prices also. Just because they can and still competitive. If the price of wine from Italy/Spain/France rise, so will the price of domestic USA wine. Name your product...

No one is going to pass up a possible profit. Just ask a few billionaires.

The only thing to do is watch the situation play out.

[fflump]

Originally Posted by explorer42

The tariffs are based on economic unfairness and designed to boost American manufacturing. So US manufactured brands like Kobold, Oak & Oscar etc should see real benefits now that the unfair competitive advantage that Swiss brands like Rolex have enjoyed is levelled out? I expect to see the sub-forums for those types of US brands start to increase in popularity and a significant uptick in ‘got the call from the Kobold AD’ type posts etc.

The alternative, of course, would be for Rolex to shift its manufacturing operations to the US. Might be quite expensive to set up, but I’m sure Rolex would absorb that rather than looking to recover the cost through increasing prices. They’d have to remove the words ‘Swiss Made’ from the dial, of course.

The problem is that a trade deficit is construed as economic unfairness, whereas it often means a poor country that cannot afford US goods can keep economically afloat by selling produce that richer countries want or cannot produce, such as vanilla from Madagascar.

[Halifax Daytona UK]

It’s a formality that Rolex prices will rise significantly when the tariffs come into place. Sub date will be $13,500 according to the Everest article. As for moving to the US , that’s laughable to even to suggest it. Only watched made and assembled in Switzerland can have the Swiss Made signature. Manufacturing them in the US means Rolex would not be Swiss made and if they did manufacture them in the US , they would carry the Swiss Made signature and trade for significantly less. The best thing for US citizens to do is to travel abroad to buy Rolex, wear it through customs and get the dealer to FedEx you the box

If you are US citizen most things in life will come more expensive ,significantly more expensive if they are imported. Already Land Rover has suspended all imports.

The dollar is getting weaker , I might even go over to the US to watch the football World Cup

[rajurama]

Rolex Switzerland will Sell the watches at Factory Cost (this is much lower than AD cost) to Rolex USA .

Rolex USA import invoice is much lower hence the 31% on its cost will be low.

Rolex USA distributes locally to ADs.

Rolex Retail prices should remain unchanged or at most 5-10% up which they did it anyways.

[FloydRedford]

Originally Posted by JRell

I say the US just so stop exporting fish to these penguins. Watch how quick they change their tune.

Absolutely! It’s a “negotiating tactic”. We’ve been lead by stupid people with so-called economics degrees. Time to make those slippery penguin SOB’s pay their own way.


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[ratty]

Originally Posted by JRell

I say the US just so stop exporting fish to these penguins. Watch how quick they change their tune.

Do you mean, Watch how quick they change their tuna?

Sorry, I'll get my coat!

[DAGMoney]

Originally Posted by Ceb

Interesting (from Rob Corder - WATCHPRO)

My hunch is that they will share the pain around because they need to minimise the price rise that is passed onto consumers in the United States.

This will mean retailers, wholesalers and manufacturers each share the cost of the tariffs.

Let’s take the example of a watch with a $10,000 retail price imported with a taxable value of $5,000.

The $5,000 value of the watch will incur an additional $1,550 tariff for the importer. Passing on this cost to the consumer would increase the price of their watch by 15.5%; better than 31%, but still enough to mean brands would need to adjust prices worldwide to close the differential.

But the wholesaler and retailer could eat half of the cost each, meaning a price rise of 7.75% to the consumer. While nobody welcomes this sort of inflation, we are talking about a watch market that barely noticed when Rolex increased the prices of its gold watches by up to 14% in January this year.

However, a price differential of 7.75% between the United States and other major markets would not be tolerated for long, so the biggest brands would look to close it by limiting the rise in the United States and bumping prices around the rest of the world.

Going back to the earlier example, the currency adjusted price for a Submariner might rise worldwide, including in the United States, by 1-2%, a perfect outcome for American jewellers, which might also be benefiting from an improving economy if — as my conversations with US retailers today suggest — President Trump turns out to be right about what will make America wealthy again.

Your analysis is as accuate as any out there, and I susepct we'll see something like what you suggest. Time will tell if any of this sticks for long. It seems to be a daily,moving target....

[Fleetlord]

Around 25 yes ago, the decision was made to shift the US economy to a digital and service base instead of manufacturing. Workers would retrain and re-engage into a modern environment. The general manufacturing would be undertaken by developing countries as their low labor costs would maximize profits and be best for business.

Gonna be impossible to reverse all that. That ship has sailed, grounded and was scrapped..lol

[Dr. Robert]

Originally Posted by JRell

I say the US just so stop exporting fish to these penguins. Watch how quick they change their tune.

I’m for invading and annexing the penguin islands as our new states!
Freedom for the penguins, they’ll do better with us protecting them!


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[enjoythemusic]

Originally Posted by Michigan_State

Rumor has it that the penguins are gobbling up all the in demand models. Bathing in cash they are, because of that unfair stuff that’s going on.

Nope, it's the Oaks. They grab up all the light, and worse still, ignore pleas(!) from the Maples. Can't the Maples just be happy with their shade?

PS: My fave kit of his.

[ronricks]

Secondary watch market is really struggling right now. Prices aren’t ‘going up’ and any grey dealer on Instagram etc who tries to perpetuate this is FOS. it’s wishcasting at the most desperate level.

[JRell]

Originally Posted by ratty

Do you mean, Watch how quick they change their tuna?

Sorry, I'll get my coat!

I really set you up for that one! Nice

[Dr. Robert]

They are dangerous penguins.

They belong to the Pen de Agua cartel.


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[WatchEater666]

Originally Posted by Tools

In the early 1900's the US Congress passed the 16th amendment that allowed them to levy previously unconstitutional taxes on income.

Income taxes have skyrocketed as the income from tariffs was reduced to encourage trade with other countries.

Since then, tariffs have become lopsided against the US and income taxes have gone off the charts.

Tariffs are not new and should be balanced so US workers and businesses can compete on the world stage.

I own a handful of consumer brands based out of the US.

If tariffs aren't reverted by mid-next week, we probably have to fire ~10% - 15% of the people at our portfolio brands. We are in consumer, and obviously we can't just increase prices massively overnight and have it work well. We have to go into cockroach mode.

BTW - one of them manufactures in the US, but our raw ingredients, our machiens, etc... are ALL IMPORTED. You can't buy these things in the US - they simply are not available lol

And our businesses have less than ~$100m in revenue. We can't afford to spend $10m to set up new supply chains overnight in the US.

Cool idea, but not practical.

Many small businesses will be wiped out. They dont have massive liquidity buffers. Your avg consumer brand NETS 10% - 15%! Nobody is sitting on enough cash to quickly boot up ops in the US.

I've also set up ~3x+ factories in the US for some of our other portfolio brands. It's REALLY HARD and expensive! It took ~2 years of planning @ 1 co lol...

[explorer42]

Originally Posted by Halifax Daytona UK

It’s a formality that Rolex prices will rise significantly when the tariffs come into place. Sub date will be $13,500 according to the Everest article. As for moving to the US , that’s laughable to even to suggest it. Only watched made and assembled in Switzerland can have the Swiss Made signature. Manufacturing them in the US means Rolex would not be Swiss made and if they did manufacture them in the US , they would carry the Swiss Made signature and trade for significantly less. The best thing for US citizens to do is to travel abroad to buy Rolex, wear it through customs and get the dealer to FedEx you the box

If you are US citizen most things in life will come more expensive ,significantly more expensive if they are imported. Already Land Rover has suspended all imports.

The dollar is getting weaker , I might even go over to the US to watch the football World Cup

I was employing a concept called irony in my post above about Rolex moving production to the US… I did think it was a concept that was well understood in Yorkshire.

I saw the Land Rover announcement. Other companies can’t be far behind in making the same decision…potentially even Rolex, which isn’t going to help those fabled waiting lists. Those penguins are going to be more likely to get their flippers on a Pepsi now than the average US waitlister.

[Harry-57]

Originally Posted by explorer42

Those penguins are going to be more likely to get a flippers on a Pepsi now than the average US waitlister.

I see what you did there.