Tariff imposed and Watch Prices in the USA

[1665fan]

Would you buy now or wait?? YM 40

[brandrea]

Originally Posted by JRell

I say date because the cyclops is iconic to Rolex. Wait wrong thread…

[Harry-57]

Originally Posted by brandrea

Does anyone want our oil?

Thanks for the offer. I'm OK for oil, there's plenty in my shed.

[Krash]

People on TRF don’t react. They over-react.


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[JRell]

Originally Posted by Krash

People on TRF don’t react. They over-react.


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What do you expect we are obviously sitting around on our phones lol.

[brandrea]

Originally Posted by Harry-57

Thanks for the offer. I'm OK for oil, there's plenty in my shed.

Right …

Potash? Maybe some Copper?


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[Phrank]

Originally Posted by brandrea

Right …

Potash? Maybe some Copper?


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How aboot Aluminum, I hear Quebec with all that Hydro Power makes it real cheap????

[GB-man]

I’m just glad they let us ramble about current events a bit. Provided there’s no ad hominem attacks, getting balanced opinions from presumed educated people around the world is one of the most interesting things I come here for. Now that I’ve covered all the watch topics lol

The fundamental difference I have with the administrations plan is I believe we have a spending problem which supersedes our revenue problem. Raising revenue would be much more palatable than austerity measures but it’s much easier to save a buck than make one in my experience. Particularly when you’re spending like us.

[JRell]

Originally Posted by GB-man

I’m just glad they let us ramble about current events a bit. Provided there’s no ad hominem attacks, getting balanced opinions from presumed educated people around the world is one of the most interesting things I come here for. Now that I’ve covered all the watch topics lol

The fundamental difference I have with the administrations plan is I believe we have a spending problem which supersedes our revenue problem. Raising revenue would be much more palatable than austerity measures but it’s much easier to save a buck than make one in my experience. Particularly when you’re spending like us.

Kenny Powers has entered the chat!

[brandrea]

Originally Posted by Phrank

How aboot Aluminum, I hear Quebec with all that Hydro Power makes it real cheap????

I like that you’ve learned the accent!

YES lots of cheap hydro electric power !

What ever you want, we’ve got it!


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[Phrank]

Originally Posted by brandrea

I like that you’ve learned the accent!

YES lots of cheap hydro electric power !

What ever you want, we’ve got it!


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..and all that Nickel up in Sudbury, reminds me of our National Treasure Stompin' Tom Connors.

[JRell]

Originally Posted by brandrea

I like that you’ve learned the accent!

YES lots of cheap hydro electric power !

What ever you want, we’ve got it!


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Need some Pittsburghese in here:

Yinz jagoffs tariffed our Penguins n’at.

[brandrea]

Originally Posted by JRell

Need some Pittsburghese in here:

Yinz jagoffs tariffed our Penguins n’at.

Holy smokes … I seriously spit up coffee


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[Maleg]

Originally Posted by ajw45

Some Americans, mostly uneducated, and systematically lied to and misled about how tariffs work and who pays for them by the people now implementing them. I pay plenty of tariffs importing to the US, more every year, I export to clients who pay vat and duties in their countries, I wouldn't want to trade places with them, I majored in economics, I can tell you with every confidence this is all wrong. It true, it's not perfectly fair, but America has done well because trade policy is just one part of the ecosystem and this kind of punitive behavior threatens not just trade but everything. Systems, markets, work better and more efficiently when there is trust, these kinds of actions are pushing us back decades and the privilege you have just by being an American and living on the dollar is evaporating at a record pace.

True statement. America has thrived on affordable imports. Indiscriminate weoponization of tariffs are the antithesis to a stable global economy. People who claim these tariffs are a good strategy are drinking the Koolaid and the end result will be economic Jonestown.

Originally Posted by Ichiran

The monumental debt is due to decades of spending beyond your means. My country manages our fiscal budget carefully and is prudent with social security and healthcare. Now we are being coerced by a powerful nation into investing in or buying products we don't need arising from an arbitrary reason, and if not we will face closures and job losses. That's what tariffs do. Now every other nation is being punished for your monumental debt.

True. The US debt was created by decades of irresponsible, unfettered spending from both parties. The national debt has nothing to do with a trade deficit and everything to do with a complete lack of fiscal discipline at the federal level.

[Harry-57]

Originally Posted by brandrea

Right …

Potash? Maybe some Copper?

Hmmmm. Tempting. I'll have a ponder.

[Dave O]

Originally Posted by Maleg

True statement. America has thrived on affordable imports. Indiscriminate weoponization of tariffs are the antithesis to a stable global economy. People who claim these tariffs are a good strategy a drinking the Koolaid and the end result will be economic Jonestown.

True. The US debt was created by decades of irresponsible, unfettered spending from both parties. The national debt has nothing to do with a trade deficit and everything to do with a complete lack of fiscal discipline at the federal level.

I think we all need to take a chill pill and give it a chance. Comparing it to Jonestown after only a week is a step too far in my book. And it's not all about the US debt. It's also about bringing manufacturing back to the US. From 1997 to 2024, the U.S. lost around 5 million manufacturing jobs. During covid I couldn't even get the medication I needed for my kids because it was only produced in China. We need to bring critical manufacturing jobs back to the US so we are not solely dependent on the rest of the world for our everyday needs. The tariffs are all a part of this.

We didn't get into this situation overnight and we won't get out of it that quickly either. Over 50 countries have already come to the table to talk. It's called the art of the deal. We may not like how it was implemented, but we have to give it some time to see where it all shakes out.

[SS Oyster]

Originally Posted by Cassian739

Mike from This Watch, That Watch posted a decent and fact based review of Tariffs and the likely impact on Rolex and other Swiss watch brands. I have found this channel to be a fairly sane voice in an increasingly crazy world.


https://youtu.be/GA5yUDXzntY?si=L_IeKA4h6UaRVnq3

Except he keeps talking about the tariff applying to the retail price when it only applies to the COGS.


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[enjoythemusic]

Usually these things settle out within six months to a few years. Plus the constant and ongoing currency devaluation can help equalize things, too.

BUT... if you happen to be selling an MB&F LM101 purple dial, PANIC NOW and sell it to me for $50 USD. :)

[SS Oyster]

Originally Posted by Ichiran

The monumental debt is due to decades of spending beyond your means. My country manages our fiscal budget carefully and is prudent with social security and healthcare. Now we are being coerced by a powerful nation into investing in or buying products we don't need arising from an arbitrary reason, and if not we will face closures and job losses. That's what tariffs do. Now every other nation is being punished for your monumental debt.

You don’t have to buy anything. Only, if you do buy things it should be based not on inflated prices by an imbalanced tariff that falsely puts your exported food if a preferable spot to imported US goods.


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[SS Oyster]

Originally Posted by brandrea

Does anyone want our oil?

Once it’s cheaper, of course they will. Most likely though it will be in the form of LNG. Their alternative is to keep buying from Russia.


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[SS Oyster]

Originally Posted by GB-man

I’m just glad they let us ramble about current events a bit. Provided there’s no ad hominem attacks, getting balanced opinions from presumed educated people around the world is one of the most interesting things I come here for. Now that I’ve covered all the watch topics lol

The fundamental difference I have with the administrations plan is I believe we have a spending problem which supersedes our revenue problem. Raising revenue would be much more palatable than austerity measures but it’s much easier to save a buck than make one in my experience. Particularly when you’re spending like us.

I agree - that’s why we are also pushing forward with DOGE, which actually started day 1. You haven’t heard?


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[brandrea]

Originally Posted by SS Oyster

Once it’s cheaper, of course they will. Most likely though it will be in the form of LNG. Their alternative is to keep buying from Russia.


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Ummm, not sure where you get your information from?

We send roughly 4 million barrels a day of heavy crude to your refineries in the mid west. About 60% of that is considered heavy oil to which your refineries are specially set.

Oh and by the way at a discounted price to WTI.

You can read a bit about it here.

https://financialpost.com/commoditie...-at-a-discount


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[EverCloserUnion]

Just popped over to Lesotho to set up a small business exporting used Rolex watches from the Kingdom to the United States.

Did I miss anything while I was away?

[pessoa00]

Originally Posted by Dave O

I think we all need to take a chill pill and give it a chance. Comparing it to Jonestown after only a week is a step too far in my book. And it's not all about the US debt. It's also about bringing manufacturing back to the US. From 1997 to 2024, the U.S. lost around 5 million manufacturing jobs. During covid I couldn't even get the medication I needed for my kids because it was only produced in China. We need to bring critical manufacturing jobs back to the US so we are not solely dependent on the rest of the world for our everyday needs. The tariffs are all a part of this.

We didn't get into this situation overnight and we won't get out of it that quickly either. Over 50 countries have already come to the table to talk. It's called the art of the deal. We may not like how it was implemented, but we have to give it some time to see where it all shakes out.

Those jobs weren’t lost, they were transferred to other industries, namely services and tech, where US has a tremendous trade surplus with the rest of the world. In fact, US has currently among the lowest unemployment rate of the past 50 years.

It is intellectually deceiving to only include goods on the trade deficit to justify declaring a trade war with the rest of the world (well, except for Russia…)

It is also naive to think those manufacturing “jobs” will be transferred from China, Vietnam, India, etc., back to the US, especially when the few that could maybe take those jobs (illegal imigrants) are being expelled from US.

On the topic of watches, what to you think Swiss companies will do? Open factories in US for made in US made watches? Who here would buy a US made Rolex? Just the concept IMO is ridiculous. Rolex just did a price increase of about 10% on gold watches and 18% on Daytona gold watches. They could easily get away with an increase of 15% on steel watches for 2025 and adjust the remaining with another increase next year.

To even out things IMO the rest of the world should impose tariffs on US services by the same amount US is imposing on goods. That would be fair trade.

[BraveBold]

The whole purpose of trading is to have clusters of efficiency and trade off those productivity benefits.

Mutual win.

That said, there ARE abuses of protectionist measures. Typically not by the USA (outside narrow strategic areas). The magnitude, rationale, impact etc… there is nuance in understanding that is lacking here.

Only <1% of the population can truly grasp the complexity involved as it involves the intersection of many considerations - domestic politics and redistribution, strategic considerations / “power politics” and, of course, economics and technology. Over simplifying does no favors and makes for poor policy. When done on a global scale over short timeframes, even more challenging.

I expect an outcome that looks very little like the initial implementation. But the journey matters too. That is highly problematic.

[GB-man]

Originally Posted by SS Oyster

I agree - that’s why we are also pushing forward with DOGE, which actually started day 1. You haven’t heard?


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I like it in theory but that’s akin to me saying I have a 100k credit card bill and then telling my wife we should switch from organic milk to regular. I’d like to see meaningful spending cuts.

[Dave O]

Originally Posted by pessoa00

Those jobs weren’t lost, they were transferred to other industries, namely services and tech, where US has a tremendous trade surplus with the rest of the world. In fact, US has currently among the lowest unemployment rate of the past 50 years.

It is intellectually deceiving to only include goods on the trade deficit to justify declaring a trade war with the rest of the world (well, except for Russia…)

It is also naive to think those manufacturing “jobs” will be transferred from China, Vietnam, India, etc., back to the US, especially when the few that could maybe take those jobs (illegal imigrants) are being expelled from US.

On the topic of watches, what to you think Swiss companies will do? Open factories in US for made in US made watches? Who here would buy a US made Rolex? Just the concept IMO is ridiculous. Rolex just did a price increase of about 10% on gold watches and 18% on Daytona gold watches. They could easily get away with an increase of 15% on steel watches for 2025 and adjust the remaining with another increase next year.

To even out things IMO the rest of the world should impose tariffs on US services by the same amount US is imposing on goods. That would be fair trade.

You missed my point entirely. The US at one time was self sufficient. We didn't rely on other countries for critical supplies. Most recently, China was very close to buying one of our last steel manufactures until we stopped it. We rely much to heavily on others for critical pharmaceuticals. Chip making is mainly outsourced as well. During covid we couldn't get the critical pharmaceuticals we needed. Many automotive manufacturing plants shut down because we couldn't get the chips we need that cars now depend on. We finally have someone that is saying this has to stop. We need to bring some of this critical manufacturing back.

I'll say it again. We may not like how it was implemented, but we have to give it some time to see where it all shakes out.

[JRell]

Originally Posted by Dave O

You missed my point entirely. The US at one time was self sufficient. We didn't rely on other countries for critical supplies. Most recently, China was very close to buying one of our last steel manufactures until we stopped it. We rely much to heavily on others for critical pharmaceuticals. Chip making is mainly outsourced as well. During covid we couldn't get the critical pharmaceuticals we needed. Many automotive manufacturing plants shut down because we couldn't get the chips we need that cars now depend on. We finally have someone that is saying this has to stop. We need to bring some of this critical manufacturing back.

I'll say it again. We may not like how it was implemented, but we have to give it some time to see where it all shakes out.

That was the reason for the CHIPS Act - totaling more than half a trillion dollars in private investments, and creating over 500,000 American jobs.

[rlj676]

China has had tariffs for years (along with other barriers), and they very effectively forced local for local business and have drastically improved their standard of living and GDP accordingly. They continued to innovate odd this advantage and are now the world’s hub of manufacture.

So for all the comments on how bad these tariffs impact the US now… why were they successful for China, so much so they refuse to negotiate lowering them?

I work in automotive purchasing (sourcing) and have for close to 20 years, so my statement comes from the very work I’ve had to do in choosing where things are manufactured for global production.

Everyone points to some stats of “wealth growth” and income, unemployment to indicate the US is in great shape. They’re averages, massively distorted by the top 1% of billionaires who have done incredible, and it sways the average materially. The normal working class person is barely cutting it (housing, food, etc) and to bring back the middle class you could force back some manufacturing, sure seems at least to be a theory they’re testing.

[BraveBold]

For China it is the “other” category that matters.

The requirements back in time on JV investments.

SOE IP and tech sharing requirements to condition investment or licenses.

Massive subsidies.

General interference.

Long list… but tariffs would be low.

However, what works in one system a) may not be optimal for another and b) may not be compatible with objectives.

China is not a case study I’d point to for much, at least nothing related to living standards vs the US. Even with the low starting point and massive improvements.

Ideally we would target the deficiencies for both US wealth distribution (there are ways but willpower and political support is lacking) and fair competition (again there are ways but some are not “smart” ways).

Originally Posted by rlj676

China has had tariffs for years (along with other barriers), and they very effectively forced local for local business and have drastically improved their standard of living and GDP accordingly. They continued to innovate odd this advantage and are now the world’s hub of manufacture.

So for all the comments on how bad these tariffs impact the US now… why were they successful for China, so much so they refuse to negotiate lowering them?

I work in automotive purchasing (sourcing) and have for close to 20 years, so my statement comes from the very work I’ve had to do in choosing where things are manufactured for global production.

Everyone points to some stats of “wealth growth” and income, unemployment to indicate the US is in great shape. They’re averages, massively distorted by the top 1% of billionaires who have done incredible, and it sways the average materially. The normal working class person is barely cutting it (housing, food, etc) and to bring back the middle class you could force back some manufacturing, sure seems at least to be a theory they’re testing.