Talking Stocks 2.0

[huncho]

personally i see no reason to invest in nvidia or any chips with this current administration. they've already been dead money for over a year and now are some of the most politically sensitive stocks. software has been making the strongest recoveries and/or new highs weekly and is a lot less stressful to hold for now

i guess if your timeframe is 10+ years it doesn't matter but to me the risk/reward for nvidia is just not there in the short term (2-4 years). on top of that it's also somehow an extremely volatile stock even at 3T mcap so it's kinda lose/lose to me

[904VT]

Originally Posted by huncho

personally i see no reason to invest in nvidia or any chips with this current administration. they've already been dead money for over a year and now are some of the most politically sensitive stocks. software has been making the strongest recoveries and/or new highs weekly and is a lot less stressful to hold for now

i guess if your timeframe is 10+ years it doesn't matter but to me the risk/reward for nvidia is just not there in the short term (2-4 years). on top of that it's also somehow an extremely volatile stock even at 3T mcap so it's kinda lose/lose to me

Huncho, you have some of the best capital market instinct I’ve seen but I disagree here. NVIDIA is long overdue for the $200+ valuation because growth has been as consistent as anyone could want in the company. The stock since the split allowed too many retail emotional traders to have access. That caused behavioral swings. Jensen had been discussing for a long time for those that read all his public conversations that Sovereign is the next big growth leg for accelerated computing. We’ve seen exactly that over the last few months with deals in the Middle East, US and Europe for data centers and cybersecurity uses. Next comes smart cities and vehicles. And NVIDIA launching their first desktop CPU this Fall. Which was the root of why they wanted to acquire ARM.
Seems imo at least big things in their future. Robotics (Richtech Robotics, Microbot Medical, Hyperfine portable MRI, Serve), Fringe (internet of things providers smart homes), Agentic AI (SoundHound), military AI (Palantir, Palladyne) are all just getting started. We’ll see which techs make it long term, but in common is all use NVIDIA chips or similar to some degree during their development or value add process. NVIDIA now allowing Marvell, AMD and others be part of their server solutions.

NVIDIA is also a massive software provider with CUDA and digital libraries. Why the Biden admin tried going antitrust against. But reality is they’ve been working on these things for years before anyone cared to pay attention or invest capital. Quantum is next .

[huncho]

Originally Posted by 904VT

Huncho, you have some of the best capital market instinct I’ve seen but I disagree here. NVIDIA is long overdue for the $200+ valuation because growth has been as consistent as anyone could want in the company. The stock since the split allowed too many retail emotional traders to have access. That caused behavioral swings. Jensen had been discussing for a long time for those that read all his public conversations that Sovereign is the next big growth leg for accelerated computing. We’ve seen exactly that over the last few months with deals in the Middle East, US and Europe for data centers and cybersecurity uses. Next comes smart cities and vehicles. And NVIDIA launching their first desktop CPU this Fall. Which was the root of why they wanted to acquire ARM.
Seems imo at least big things in their future. Robotics (Richtech Robotics, Microbot Medical, Hyperfine portable MRI, Serve), Fringe (internet of things providers smart homes), Agentic AI (SoundHound), military AI (Palantir, Palladyne) are all just getting started. We’ll see which techs make it long term, but in common is all use NVIDIA chips or similar to some degree during their development or value add process. NVIDIA now allowing Marvell, AMD and others be part of their server solutions.

NVIDIA is also a massive software provider with CUDA and digital libraries. Why the Biden admin tried going antitrust against. But reality is they’ve been working on these things for years before anyone cared to pay attention or invest capital. Quantum is next .

yeah i mean i agree with everything you said but it seems like none of that matters yet as the market kind of stopped caring about nvidia. it will take some time for it to finally break that 140-150 wall and start moving again but until then it's dead money while there are a lot of stocks leading the market to new highs this whole year. like you said it's just way too retail heavy and index heavy now so it just doesn't move the way it used to. i know a lot of people don't mind that but just from a perspective of putting capital to work. its time will come again and it'll eventually move to 200+ but its just such a heavy stock now

also i made that post in may when tariffs were the biggest narrative and chip stocks were really struggling with every tweet about tariffs/deals. things have changed a bit since but hypothetically if we get back in that cycle chips will get hit hard probably so it's just all about your personal timeframe

thats why i personally think the risk reward here is kind of not worth it as it seems like it's priced to perfection and doesn't even move on earnings anymore. also obviously i'm not a long term fundamentals investor so i probably view it differently than most here. funny enough i managed to get back into nvidia at 88 on april 7 and sold it that same day when it hit 100, now realizing ill never see that low of a price again lol

also an underrated way of playing nvidia/ai is through some of the other layers of the system like power/energy/datacenter stocks which i don't think retail even looks at yet. stocks like VST, GEV, VRT, CEG, etc