Panerai 10 years from now

[bcacncnc]

Where do you think the Panerai brand will be 10 years from now? Do you think, it will become much like Rolex, where the brand becomes well established and its watches become collectable and sort after?

[TheDude]

I view Panerai as already being in that position, but the timeline is very compressed.

We can look to the last 60 years of Rolex sport models in the same way we can look at the last 17 years of Panerai. (1993+)

Of course there are old military issue Panerai that are many decades older, but these were made in such small numbers (and not sold directly to consumers). They are already practically museum pieces.

[L-16610]

Originally Posted by bcacncnc

Where do you think the Panerai brand will be 10 years from now? Do you think, it will become much like Rolex, where the brand becomes well established and its watches become collectable and sort after?

I almost dare to say their watches are already more sought after.
Look at the prices a 15 years old Panerai fetches.

That was only in 1995. If you bought a Rolex sub in 1995 you paid about 2300 euro. Today you could sell this watch for more or less 3000 euro
If you bought ANY panerai in 1995 you probably paid between 1750 and 3000 euro and you could sell it today for minimum 10000 even 35000 for the most sought after watches.
And the real vintage Panerai made between 1930 and 1950. OMG, think about 50000 and more. And here again for any model.
Look at limited editions like the 127,217,232,249,21,26,28 etc . They are very hard to get and their value is much higher than the original retail price. So they are more sought after than any modern Rolex.

If you want to try it. Try to get a 339 or even better but impossible a 360

[TheDude]

Originally Posted by L-16610

I almost dare to say their watches are already more sought after.
Look at the prices a 15 years old Panerai fetches.

That was only in 1995. If you bought a Rolex sub in 1995 you paid about 2300 euro. Today you could sell this watch for more or less 3000 euro
If you bought ANY panerai in 1995 you probably paid between 1750 and 3000 euro and you could sell it today for minimum 10000 even 35000 for the most sought after watches.
And the real vintage Panerai made between 1930 and 1950. OMG, think about 50000 and more. And here again for any model.

I only see this as evidence that the timeline is compressed. The 1993-1997ish models are like the late 50s Rolex sport models. According to the Panerai site, 1993 was the start of consumer offerings, and they were very low production.

I see the "real vintage" Panerai pieces as being the same as Military issue Rolex, since prior to 1993 all Panerai were Military issue.


Current regular Panerai watches exhibit the same small value increase or decrease as current Rolexes. The special editions are exceptions but if Rolex released similar low production special editions they would easily be just as sought after.

[L-16610]

Originally Posted by TheDude

I only see this as evidence that the timeline is compressed. The 1993-1997ish models are like the late 50s Rolex sport models. According to the Panerai site, 1993 was the start of consumer offerings, and they were very low production.

The special editions are exceptions but if Rolex released similar low production special editions they would easily be just as sought after.

I agree but Rolex does not want to do a LE.
It's a pitty

[mike]

Excellent question and I think both Dude and L-16610 make salient arguements.

It's interesting that references like the 88, 24,111, etc... are considered "common" by Panerai standards yet compared to many Rolex references are quite small in numbers over the course of their respective runs.

Panerai has (so far) stayed pretty close to their roots and as long as that continues all will be well for the company and those of us that value their watches for their workmanship and history.

If I had to SWAG in ten years we will see Panerai as an all in-house brand as the company attempts to move father up than it has now. (which is considerable).

It's interesting to note the number of Rolex fans that have "discovered" the brand and all that it has to offer. If Panerai maintains it's DNA and doesn't try to become something it isn't, as a marque it will only become stronger.

As hard as certain references are to find (and land), I do hope Panerai keeps the numbers at current levels. 60Kish watches per year is a far cry from 850Kish and renders a certain "exclusivity" to even their common references.

[Mantooth]

I believe they are more sought after, as well.

Panerai produces exponentially less pieces per year compared to Rolex.

My "J" Series 112 is 20xx/2500

My "V" Series GMTII-C is 503xxx/800,000(?)

HUGE difference in production numbers.

[TheDude]

Originally Posted by Mantooth

I believe they are more sought after, as well.

Panerai produces exponentially less pieces per year compared to Rolex.

My "J" Series 112 is 20xx/2500

My "V" Series GMTII-C is 503xxx/800,000(?)

HUGE difference in production numbers.

I'd say there is exponentially less awareness of the brand outside of watch people.

Perfect example, I was at a BBQ yesterday talking with two friends of mine. They commented on my 359 and asked what kind of a watch it was. They had zero knowledge of Panerai, and they're savvy, aware, affluent people.


Find me two people anywhere who haven't heard of Rolex.

[bcacncnc]

Thanks all for your comments.

I wonder what the marketing strategy at PAM is. On the one hand, consideration must be given to expanding awareness of the brand - making it more known to the general populace. On the other, it may be strategically beneficial to keep it to limited production runs, thereby restricting supply and shifting price higher up the curve. Its a delicate balance for Richmont to find.

The reason I ask this question is to do with speculating on the value of say a 233/270 (higher price point PAMs) say 10 years from now. Compared with say a 111, lower price point and higher production numbers, I am wondering is it financially more sound to "invest" in a 233 for 10 years than say a 111 for 10 years. Which will hold more value/appreciate more - ignoring inflation for simplicity.

[ocwatching]

Very interesting discussion..
and I think everyone so far has made some really good points..the only thing that I am afraid of is the AP-like use of SE and LE...

as along as PAM stays true and not try to expand into a Rolex..the brand will be successful as part of the allure of the brand is the niche...

But as many have noted..there is only soo much you can do with the 2 case variants...

[htc8p]

as for the panerai company, it will still be the same 10 years from now as long as they dont go suicide head to head with rolex the largest watch maker. so their alternative to grow revenue is to make china editions and other limited editions

as for the watches, it is very difficult to earn from high end watch purchases. you have to find a buyer first. and only select few models will be really sought after.

[TheDude]

Originally Posted by bcacncnc

Thanks all for your comments.

I wonder what the marketing strategy at PAM is. On the one hand, consideration must be given to expanding awareness of the brand - making it more known to the general populace. On the other, it may be strategically beneficial to keep it to limited production runs, thereby restricting supply and shifting price higher up the curve. Its a delicate balance for Richmont to find.

The reason I ask this question is to do with speculating on the value of say a 233/270 (higher price point PAMs) say 10 years from now. Compared with say a 111, lower price point and higher production numbers, I am wondering is it financially more sound to "invest" in a 233 for 10 years than say a 111 for 10 years. Which will hold more value/appreciate more - ignoring inflation for simplicity.

If financial gain is your aim, you'd be far better served by putting the big $$ you're thinking about into a mid-90s piece that is already an established collectible. They certainly aren't making any more of them.

[esm]

Originally Posted by TheDude

I'd say there is exponentially less awareness of the brand outside of watch people.

Perfect example, I was at a BBQ yesterday talking with two friends of mine. They commented on my 359 and asked what kind of a watch it was. They had zero knowledge of Panerai, and they're savvy, aware, affluent people.


Find me two people anywhere who haven't heard of Rolex.

understand where you are coming from and agree with it

same can be said for.... Breguet (is that some kind of bread?), A. Lange and Sohne (A-what?), Vacheron Constantin (what kind of whiskey is that?) and/or Ulysse Nardin (some kind of medicine?) right...?

[mike]

Originally Posted by esm

understand where you are coming from and agree with it

same can be said for.... Breguet (is that some kind of bread?), A. Lange and Sohne (A-what?), Vacheron Constantin (what kind of whiskey is that?) and/or Ulysse Nardin (some kind of medicine?) right...?

[Wisconsin Proud]

One thing to remember is that Panerai has strict controls over ADs placing any advertising on a local level.

This means no billboards or newspaper print ads to attract potential customers. Everything is national print ads or word of mouth on the street or through forums.

As a matter of fact, I visited a store that sells Panerai and I had no idea they were an AD for a few years prior.

Imagine not being able to advertise your product to a local audience. Now, compare that to Rolex that practically requires the same store to have several highway billboards. This is a huge sales advantage.

[Welshwatchman]

Originally Posted by Mantooth

I believe they are more sought after, as well.

Panerai produces exponentially less pieces per year compared to Rolex.

My "J" Series 112 is 20xx/2500

My "V" Series GMTII-C is 503xxx/800,000(?)

HUGE difference in production numbers.

Your point is valid though your estimate on production numbers of the 116710 is wildly wrong. It would be closer to 60,000 and counting.

[toph]

Some model panerai's are instantly collectable- a lot more so than rolex. pricfe can double nearly overnight on some models

[bcacncnc]

I'm not looking for financial gain, but rather just trying to pick a model that I really like that will hopefully retain its value the most - or appreciate if possible - say ten years from now.

[rayt]

internationally speaking now.the top three sought after watches among enlightened and intelligent and also can afford watch lovers/collectors are rolex,panerai and patek...enough is said.meaning you wont go wrong with panerai!

[Spencer]

A concern of mine is that it's almost as if Panerais turning out too many new models a year and what if the over sized watch fad dies?

I doubt it will "die" and I think Panerai will be a major player for years to come, but will never touch the likes of AP or Patek.

[BigMac53]

Originally Posted by esm

understand where you are coming from and agree with it

same can be said for.... Breguet (is that some kind of bread?), A. Lange and Sohne (A-what?), Vacheron Constantin (what kind of whiskey is that?) and/or Ulysse Nardin (some kind of medicine?) right...?

I gotta say, this is probably the best post I've seen during my short time here

Very funny, but also very true!

Sorry to kinda hi-jack the thread but I came in late and really felt the need to comment on this!

[Shade]

I think people will know more about Panerais and they will be more regarded. However, panerai remains a niche compared to Rolex. Its either you love it or you don't. Their models are on the uncommon side, and not easy for people to pull off.

[akira23]

Originally Posted by Shade

I think people will know more about Panerais and they will be more regarded. However, panerai remains a niche compared to Rolex. Its either you love it or you don't. Their models are on the uncommon side, and not easy for people to pull off.

+1...Also I hope they keep there production numbers down and not go into mass production mode....

[SubKing]

I think in 10 years from now panerai will remain the same in production numbers, well maybe just a little higher production but not by much.. I production numbers stay the same then expect very high price increases from the company.. As for future value, I think SE pams will always increase in value and be very stable from a collectors stand point. I also think any Pam with an ETA movement will be a bit more sought after than an in house movement pam. Because as we all know, one day soon, panerai will no longer be using ETA mov and they will be all in-house. But from an investment stand point I feel SE pams are solid

[vincent_drlin]

Originally Posted by toph

Some model panerai's are instantly collectable- a lot more so than rolex. pricfe can double nearly overnight on some models

yes...Panerai is more collectable right now...
But if u live for long enough, that's is another consideration.