Facebook IPO *Help*

[rhalljr]

I realized there are more experience people on here and I am seeking financial advice. I have been doing a lot of research on IPOs and I feel facebook's IPO could potentially be the largest in my generation. Is there anyway I can get in on opening day to get a piece of the action? If not, is my only option to wait desperately until the first sell and try to buy on a cap?

What are my most possible/probable courses of action and how do I go about making them happen? Thanks all!

[johnbeth]

Buying before IPO / Listing day, would be mission impossible as most institutions or insiders already have their claws on their shares.

You would probably be able to purchase when its IPO day and the shares are listed and are trading. Price no doubt will be up, as they always bounce on IPO day hard, however, it all depends on the price the IPO is set at.

Value, well I thought Google was not good value @ $85 when it listed, however, now you have certainly made your money 7 fold.

The issue with facebook, even though they made 1 Billion, their revenue would not justify the share price and possible get punished by investors if dissapointed.

Never invest any money if you are not prepared to loose it. Thats the name of the game!

[perpetualman88]

hmmm financial advice I smell bad idea in this

[stephentross]

The Facebook IPO was just filed, This mean they enter a 30 cool off period in which anything could kick it back for a setback.

Lets say everything runs smooth. The shares are already sold. To the big boys.

Your best bet to get some public IPO shares would be to contact your broker, Such as TD Ameritrade or whoever you use to Buy and Sell stocks. Request that they put you on the list to buy shares should they be able to purchase some themselves. You will have to fill out some forms saying you understand the risk of an IPO.

However many shares of Facebook that company gets, They will usually share between the amount of people on that list.

I was able to get 100 Google at 1st public IPO price and 79 shares of Visa when it was introduced. With both GOOG and V I added shares on the open market. Facebook I will not. It may do well, I just do not want to own shares of a company that will completely change EVERYTHING after it goes public

To me, Facebook is not a long term play so be wise. I will get what I can get, I suspect between 50 and 100 shares. Let it go up because of Facebook fever and sell. then i will delete my facebook account as they will start selling my information aggressively.

Remember Myspace? Something tells me Facebook has ran its course and this IPO is a tell tale sign.

[rr-nyc]

I doubt the Facebook IPO is definitely not going to be the largest IPO you'll see. Unfortunately, us common people won't get a chance at it because institutional investors will get the lion's share. You may get in after all the initial profits are gouged out of it.

The prospectus would be an interesting read. In any case, I'd rather buy Google at $609 or AAPL for $463 and wait for them to hit their 1 year targets

*Disclaimer: This post may contain information considered to be a forward-looking statement, that reflects the poster's expectations. Actual results could vary dramatically as a result of known and unknown risks and uncertainties.

[toph]

I 100% agree with everything you said

Originally Posted by johnbeth

Buying before IPO / Listing day, would be mission impossible as most institutions or insiders already have their claws on their shares.

You would probably be able to purchase when its IPO day and the shares are listed and are trading. Price no doubt will be up, as they always bounce on IPO day hard, however, it all depends on the price the IPO is set at.

Value, well I thought Google was not good value @ $85 when it listed, however, now you have certainly made your money 7 fold.

The issue with facebook, even though they made 1 Billion, their revenue would not justify the share price and possible get punished by investors if dissapointed.

Never invest any money if you are not prepared to loose it. Thats the name of the game!

[MoBe]

I`d wait to see what the first few financial statements look like and see if the company performs according to plan before I put a single dollar in it.

I`ll let the analysts check out the moving parts before I have a look to see if I can make sense of the Internet Business,no point in investing in a business you can`t understand.

[fusionstorm]

Companies going IPO have become far savvier than their predecessors. Few, if any, are "leaving money on the table" by letting the investment bankers price their shares too low so the preferred investors reap the largest gains then liquidate. The days of a hot IPO roaring out of the gate with a huge first day gain are becoming more and more remote.

If FB indeed goes out at a $100B valuation, then the likelihood of upward movement from Day 1 is decreased tremendously. A 50% increase in their value would make FB more valuable than ORCL. If they were to double their stock price into the $200B level, FB would be more valuable than GOOG and would be in the top 10 most valuable companies in the world. Compare FB's ANNUAL REVENUES to what companies in this realm post as QUARTERLY NET PROFIT, and you'll see that FB's valuation at $100B is already absurd.

[GothamG8or]

You will not have a shot to get any allocation of the intial offering. You can certainly buy shares once it starts trading.

One thing that is interesting: look at when the lockout ends for the insiders. From what I have seen, insiders' lockup ends prior to the end of 2012. Is that coincidence that capital gains rates are considered likely to go up on '13 & therefore allow folks w/ a much lower cost basis to not take quite as heavy of a hit in late '12 than they would later? Doubt it.

Some suggest that there will good selling pressure heading into year end.... not that the stock will fall below its IPO price.. but that the price may not "run" as much as it could.

It'll be fun to watch, but I do not plan to chase it.

[azguy]

If you don't have a relationship with an advisor and have not played in the IPO market before, you will never get shares of FB.

I think it's an easy double day 1, when issues like these become available emotion over-rules clear thinking.

My company bought 250,000 shares of FB at $32.50 in November for our Private Equity Fund...These were shares held by an insider and they can only be bought and or sold once so we own them until the shares are traded on an exchange.

[dsio]

Look at Apple's valuation, and then Apple's profitability, then compare that to Facebook, and its hard not to scratch your head and wonder. They've got a massive number of users, but they're hardly the most satisfied bunch, from a corporate citizenship point of view the company's name is already mud, any any attempt to monetize the service is just going to push the userbase away. If turning users and market share into money was easy, the dot-com era companies never would have collapsed.

My prediction as an engineer, not a stock broker is that the only people that will make money off this thing are the same guys that wouldn't have to ask for info on a watch forum, everyone else, especially those that expect it to one day turn a decent profit will be very sorely disappointed.

[t e x]

good stuff posted above. trow has a huge stake in it ( a and b shares), but if you have trow in your portfolio, you might see a small bump.

will everyone sell after the 90 days are up...

[rhalljr]

Thanks for the input all. So basically my best course of action is to take the money I was going to put in FB buy another Rolex and hold until the price hike then sell. Is this correct? :-)

[smartson]

Originally Posted by rhalljr

Thanks for the input all. So basically my best course of action is to take the money I was going to put in FB buy another Rolex and hold until the price hike then sell. Is this correct? :-)

I second that.

[MoBe]

Originally Posted by rhalljr

Thanks for the input all. So basically my best course of action is to take the money I was going to put in FB buy another Rolex and hold until the price hike then sell. Is this correct? :-)

You might do as well to speculate on the future price of gold.

[rhalljr]

Originally Posted by smartson

I second that.

Great. I will be using you all as references when I build my PowerPoint presentation explaining to my wife why it is imperative I must purchase a new Rolex this month. Hopefully I will have better luck than the guy wanting to play golf in the windows pc commercial.

[jasonclark]

How will Facebook grow from this point on?

[dsio]

Originally Posted by jasonclark

How will Facebook grow from this point on?

There are three options:

1: Sell a premium service to those interested
2: Sell more advertising and more heavily targeted advertising
3: Sell information and client data for marketing research purposes

All three are possible, all three will make money, but all three will also cost them users to varying degrees.

[mboverst]

I'd be more inclined to short it after the initial offering starts trading. My guess is that every average joe in the world will invest based of the hype and media attention this IPO has and will receive.

[johnbeth]

Here some info that was found online on one of the Aussie news papers..... Info that came from the IPO filing:


Revealed: The details of Facebook's executive bonuses
AP
February 09, 2012 12:29PM

Regulatory paperwork reveals Facebook exec bonuses
Zuckerberg eligible for two 45 per cent bonuses a year
Facebook founder Mark Zuckerberg is on a salary of $US500,000.

FACEBOOK'S top executives, including CEO Mark Zuckerberg, are eligible for twice-a-year bonuses of up to 45 percent of their base salaries and other earnings, according to a regulatory filing.

Facebook Inc said in a filing today it will pay Zuckerberg, 27, a base salary of $US500,000 ($464,000) per year. Zuckerberg's 45 percent target bonus will be based on his performance.

Chief Operating Officer Sheryl Sandberg will receive a base salary of $US300,000. Her target bonus is also 45 percent, the same as the other execs.

David Ebersman will continue to serve as chief financial officer and he will get a base salary of $US300,000.

Mike Schroepfer, Facebook's vice president of engineering, will receive a base salary of $US275,000. The tech giant is required to disclose executive bonuses as part of its initial public offering.

Facebook last week filed paperwork to go public, seeking to raise $US5 billion on Wall Street in the largest flotation ever by an internet company.

In its filing with the US Securities and Exchange Commission, Facebook reported a net profit of $US668 million ($624 million) last year on revenue of $US3.7 billion.

[esspee1200]

IPOs are highly risky and almost always under perform in their first year. Tread cautious.