Will the adoption of random serial numbers adversely affect value in the long term??

[IJP]

I am not a frequent poster but had a question that is based on a couple assumptions:

1. Many people do not (and will continue to not) have the original papers associated with their watch. Especially 10-20 years down the road.

2. From 2011 or so Rolex case codes and clasp codes are no longer attributable, even by conjecture, to a specific year.

So in 15 years if I see a watch (say a 114060, or whatever) without papers, I won't know if it's a 2011 or a 2019 (assuming Rolex doesn't make any changes to the model in interim).

Or are there always/typically changes to every model every few years that will at least allow someone to date a watch to with in 3-5 years?

I was a bit concerned about this.

Thanks!

[Welshwatchman]

Originally Posted by IJP

So in 15 years if I see a watch (say a 114060, or whatever) without papers, I won't know if it's a 2011 or a 2019 (assuming Rolex doesn't make any changes to the model in interim).

On the assumption that the 2011 and 2019 watches were identical then the main factor will be condition, followed by completeness.

In 2028, a 17 year old excellent cond 114060 with be worth a good few hundred more than a fair condition 9 year old.

Completely identical condition, there may be a couple of hundred in it, favouring the newer watch. This watch would have cost a lot more to acquire though, due to inflation and Rolex's inflation busting price increases (potentially).

Both should have some sort of service record. This (or lack of) would also have a small effect on the value.

[MATCH1969]

Don't know if Rolex took this decision to stop speculation or if because of to many people refuse some models at AD because it was not the model of the year.

[balboa73]

Originally Posted by MATCH1969

Don't know if Rolex took this decision to stop speculation or if because of to many people refuse some models at AD because it was not the model of the year.

x 2

I read a thread recently where someone wanted higher % off because it was a V serial.

[snowbird]

I think there will likely be enough feature changes to roughly date a watch, just as you can do with past Rolexes based on bracelet features, dial materials, fonts, etc. I do suspect that the incremental value placed on complete sets including papers will increase though.

[Speed]

Yup

Provenance could grow importance as well as service receipts.

[JP Chestnut]

Originally Posted by IJP

So in 15 years if I see a watch (say a 114060, or whatever) without papers, I won't know if it's a 2011 or a 2019 (assuming Rolex doesn't make any changes to the model in interim).

This would imply that papers would become astronomically more important, not that watches would lose value. I think producing watches that will look dated in the future is going to more for value than any serial number.

[dssxxxx]

Originally Posted by Speed

Yup

Provenance could grow importance as well as service receipts.

Service receipts????

Why would that matter??

I have numerous Roli's and do not wear them enough to have them serviced every 10-15 years. Each gets a certain amount of time per year and the only time I have any serviced if it gains/loses a noticeable amount of time.

[IJP]

To put finer point on it, now you have a secondary market with fairly good meaningful (if not the most important information) namely the ability to determine a watch date. If that is taken away over the next 10-20 years, does the secondary market become less liquid or trade at a discount or decrease (this is a question/assumption - I don't know) because there's less information out there and less transparency, and as a consequence, the value of all Rolexes goes down because there's a less active market surrounding all the used ones (or prices are depressed)? Being an owner of a number of Rolexes I hope this won't be true!

[mrbill2mrbill2]

Originally Posted by Speed

Yup

Provenance could grow importance as well as service receipts.

Exactly!

[crowncollection]

Come on guys do you really think it's random ? nothing is random with rolex, never has been, rolex loves codes, clasp date codes and band reference numbers, model codes broken down are the model first, bezel type and then metal type, boxes have codes, papers have country codes,outer boxes have shipping codes, the dials have codes, this is just another code and it will be broken. There are very bright mathamaticians out there working on it now, a definitive sample is the problem, these guys can break military codes i would think are harder to crack than a rolex code. The main problem is assuring that you get say 5 or 10 rolexes in a row you know are stamped off the production line consecutively, once they are shipped to different AD it much more difficult to crack with random numbers but not entirely impossible, if that information is gathered somehow the mathamiticians will do the rest. Hang in there, i have complete faith the code with be cracked in a few years. In the interim i think watches with papers will demand a higer price Just my two cents. sorry to go off topic a bit

[Watchdog]

I do think it will affect prices. However, I think more for WIS than most Rolex buyers who seem to have limited knowledge about such details.

[IJP]

Cheers!!

[Speed]

Originally Posted by dssxxxx

Service receipts????

Why would that matter??

I have numerous Roli's and do not wear them enough to have them serviced every 10-15 years. Each gets a certain amount of time per year and the only time I have any serviced if it gains/loses a noticeable amount of time.

Well...if one lost their "papers" a RSC service report would be dated and be better than nothing. Minimally you would know the watch was genuine and that is older than the date on the receipt.

[dssxxxx]

Originally Posted by Speed

Well...if one lost their "papers" a RSC service report would be dated and be better than nothing. Minimally you would know the watch was genuine and that is older than the date on the receipt.

True......I was just referring to the instant where you had papers and box. No P&B, ser papers would be great.

[polarinda]

An alphanumeric papered watch would be worth more than one without 10 years down the road. Nothings changed.