Guessing how long one might have to wait for the new SS Daytona

[shnxx]

I was wondering if any of you have purchased SS Daytonas and if so, how long the wait was, especially for new releases references.

This new ceramic reference might be especially long, given that the production may not ramp up in the initial year.

Just to get a "back-of-the-envelope" ballpark estimate, if we use the often thrown out number of "1 million" rolex watches per year, we might estimate that somewhere between 10000-50000 might be accounted by Daytonas (Subs, Datejust, GMT probably account for 70%, ladies' references might account for 20%, Daytonas and Yachtmasters probably account for ~5% and the rest of the references collections ~5%).
Going with these figures we might guess that every year, there are 30000 Daytonas, of which more than half (2/3) might be stainless stee (20000)
There are several variations of the stainless steel model (maybe 10?), so each reference of SS might get 2000 made each year.
I'm not sure how many ADs there are in the world, but a large metropolitan city like LA has about 10, so US might have around 200 and the world might have around 1000 (or fewer).
Given this, we arrive at a very crude guess of 2 SS Daytonas of specific reference per AD each year, which seems to match what we typically hear from ADs.

Does this seem close to what people generally experience when they are on waitlists?
This 2 SS daytonas per year seems a bit difficult to believe, because if an AD has 20 people on the waiting list, it might take as long as 10 years for the last person to get it, assuming there are no redundancies in the waiting lists.
I assume no one waits more than 3 years for a SS daytona?

[sensui]

I think it's not that bleak...the bigger ADs get far more than that. I got mine from the Wynn around 7/7 and they've delivered about 6-8 prior to me I think. Local Ben Bridges has been more or less consistently delivering as well. Stay patient and it'll come.

[GB-man]

Its a tale of two cities. Some ads get a couple a month and some won't see two this year.

[Turpentine]

I think a lot of it depends on location. I live on a remote island in the western Pacific and easily got mine within two months of putting my name on the list -- it was also the first 116500 sold in greater Guam/Saipan. When I purchased the white one, they asked if I wanted the black dial (implying they had it ready to sell).

[scooba]

I can only repeat what my AD told me , 6 per year , They have also asked for extra and received them .

Having received my Black dial ceramic 500 back early in May and being told today my White version should be in Augusts allocation, I think the ceramic are a little slower than the old version to filter through ,But be patient your time will come.

fwiw ,I have used my AD for 23 years

[scooba]

Originally Posted by shnxx

I was wondering if any of you have purchased SS Daytonas and if so, how long the wait was, especially for new releases references.

This new ceramic reference might be especially long, given that the production may not ramp up in the initial year.

Just to get a "back-of-the-envelope" ballpark estimate, if we use the often thrown out number of "1 million" rolex watches per year, we might estimate that somewhere between 10000-50000 might be accounted by Daytonas (Subs, Datejust, GMT probably account for 70%, ladies' references might account for 20%, Daytonas and Yachtmasters probably account for ~5% and the rest of the references collections ~5%).
Going with these figures we might guess that every year, there are 30000 Daytonas, of which more than half (2/3) might be stainless stee (20000)
There are several variations of the stainless steel model (maybe 10?), so each reference of SS might get 2000 made each year.
I'm not sure how many ADs there are in the world, but a large metropolitan city like LA has about 10, so US might have around 200 and the world might have around 1000 (or fewer).
Given this, we arrive at a very crude guess of 2 SS Daytonas of specific reference per AD each year, which seems to match what we typically hear from ADs.

Does this seem close to what people generally experience when they are on waitlists?
This 2 SS daytonas per year seems a bit difficult to believe, because if an AD has 20 people on the waiting list, it might take as long as 10 years for the last person to get it, assuming there are no redundancies in the waiting lists.
I assume no one waits more than 3 years for a SS daytona?

Two Daytonas year was correct in the late 90s when Zenith supplied most of the movement for the Cosmograph , But since moving to the Rolex produced 4130 things have improved supply wise

[jctrolex]

I just put my name on the list, my AD said about 18 months.

[shnxx]

I'm guessing the variation # of Daytonas each AD receives should, in principle, reflect the # of Daytonas each AD is able to sell, so a Beverly Hills Geary's might receive 50x more Daytonas than an AD in a remote location.

So in the end, except in rare cases where one is lucky, most ADs have somewhat consistent wait times until one receives his Daytona... right?

I suppose somewhere between 1-3 years at this point might be the average then?

[Danny83]

Originally Posted by shnxx

I'm guessing the variation # of Daytonas each AD receives should, in principle, reflect the # of Daytonas each AD is able to sell, so a Beverly Hills Geary's might receive 50x more Daytonas than an AD in a remote location.

So in the end, except in rare cases where one is lucky, most ADs have somewhat consistent wait times until one receives his Daytona... right?

I suppose somewhere between 1-3 years at this point might be the average then?

If you dont have a connection in the AD it can be that or longer. I dont think any AD in the USA has one thats not spoken for.

[shnxx]

Originally Posted by Danny83

If you dont have a connection in the AD it can be that or longer. I dont think any AD in the USA has one thats not spoken for.

I see.
I've only bought one Rolex from an AD before so I suppose I wouldn't be able to get something soon lol.

[Danny83]

Originally Posted by shnxx

I see.
I've only bought one Rolex from an AD before so I suppose I wouldn't be able to get something soon lol.

Maybe if I were you just go put your name on the "list" at a few ADs. If not then you will have to pay a 3-4k premium and buy on TRF