Patek Philippe for sale?

[tom2517]

Originally Posted by tyler1980

just saying TS may be the one not into it regardless of his children, if now is the time.

Or maybe he sees it as a dying business, it’s time to get out while you can still get maximum $$$$ for it.

[Rwatcher]

Could this information be purpose leaked to support discussion and build up towards Basel? As they say all publicity is good publicity.

With Swatch group pulling away, the awareness outside of the devote WIS is much decreased to such high end shows. Even Tudor posting on Instagram a teaser this early is out of character. Leaks from the Rolex camp are usually only a week out from announcement.

I personally would hate to see the brand sell out towards a larger group but everyone has a number.

Lets see

[tyler1980]

Originally Posted by kingofthehill

With that said, look to the success of e.g. Rimowa in LVMH's hands...'purists' might be disappointed, but sales are through the roof as are prices.

thats where i would separate customers and collectors. I think Patek does fine in that situation they are in a luxury group. The old watches will be more valuable to purists though. The run of the mill customer is perfectly happy with anything that says "patek" on the dial, purists not so much.

[tyler1980]

Originally Posted by tom2517

Or maybe he sees it as a dying business, it’s time to get out while you can still get maximum $$$$ for it.

in all fairness though, they are not doing anything to adapt. I get they want to be a dress watch company but at the expense of running it into the ground? "If" and that is a big "if" they are struggling, making more sports watches is an easy fix.

AP makes purple watches and they sell out.

[s.m.b.]

Originally Posted by kingofthehill

With that said, look to the success of e.g. Rimowa in LVMH's hands...'purists' might be disappointed, but sales are through the roof as are prices.

Plenty of people would still buy their watches; I'm simply stating I wouldn't be one of them. For me, being independently owned is a large part of the Patek appeal.

[tom2517]

Originally Posted by tyler1980

in all fairness though, they are not doing anything to adapt. I get they want to be a dress watch company but at the expense of running it into the ground? "If" and that is a big "if" they are struggling, making more sports watches is an easy fix.

AP makes purple watches and they sell out.

Yeah but that is a short term fix, I am saying as a whole, mechanical watch is a dying business. We love mechanical watches, but will our next generation do as well? How about the generation after that? We already don’t need a watch to tell time will cellphones glued to our hands, it’s a business that could go obsolete eventually or niche at best.

For now the market still looks great (which is why it’s a good time to sell), but 20, 30, 50, or 100 years from now, how can anyone be certain wearing mechanical watch is still a thing.

[77T]

Originally Posted by tyler1980

just saying TS may be the one not into it regardless of his children, if now is the time.

Yes I understand that, too.
While they are “on top” it takes a wise leader to project the tornado chart of all possible outcomes due to industry disrupters.

They currently have THE superior value proposition to collectors - rarity, excellence, fit & finish, elegance...

If the 2014 investments only put them at pace with change, then another half-billion may be needed.

Anyway, we shall keep an eye out at Basel, don’t you think?


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[KetaPatek]

Originally Posted by tom2517

Yeah but that is a short term fix, I am saying as a whole, mechanical watch is a dying business. We love mechanical watches, but will our next generation do as well? How about the generation after that? We already don’t need a watch to tell time will cellphones glued to our hands, it’s a business that could go obsolete eventually or niche at best.

For now the market still looks great (which is why it’s a good time to sell), but 20, 30, 50, or 100 years from now, how can anyone be certain wearing mechanical watch is still a thing.

some people will always wear jewelry, which is what these are; they just happen to tell the time as well.

there will always be show-offs and collectors out there, and those than want to demonstrate that they can afford vs those that can't or prefer not to. human nature.

[APAP]

I myself will hold off buying any Patek until this is cleared out. I won’t be buying one if the company gets sold.

[tom2517]

Originally Posted by KetaPatek

some people will always wear jewelry, which is what these are; they just happen to tell the time as well.

there will always be show-offs and collectors out there, and those than want to demonstrate that they can afford vs those that can't or prefer not to. human nature.

Yes but like you pointed it out, it’s more of an accessory than necessity which in itself is a risk, and like I said above, who knows in 50 years will people still show off their wealth with a mechanical watch? Or is it going to be something else entirely?

[tyler1980]

Originally Posted by tom2517

Yeah but that is a short term fix, I am saying as a whole, mechanical watch is a dying business. We love mechanical watches, but will our next generation do as well? How about the generation after that? We already don’t need a watch to tell time will cellphones glued to our hands, it’s a business that could go obsolete eventually or niche at best.

For now the market still looks great (which is why it’s a good time to sell), but 20, 30, 50, or 100 years from now, how can anyone be certain wearing mechanical watch is still a thing.

i think if you position it correctly its always relevant. Look at vinyl records. Niche yes, but they are back in a big way. Its great for me because most of my favorite artists are releasing all of their new stuff on vinyl again.

A mechanical watch serves no practical purpose. IMO its more about the art, the craftsmanship in the same way vinyl is about the small details in the sound

I think any watch that isnt a quartz post 1970 is not necessary at all. But they live on.... so i dont necessarily think its a new issue.

[Ahfe]

This is a double edge sword. It will be great news for those who already own it as prices will sky rocket for older models (think of daytona paul newman and zenith movements). But new buyers will not get much value especially if they mass produce popular models for quick profits. Unless Rolex buys them and run the same of philosophy of making the market hungry for more ;)

[nyc2la]

Originally Posted by tom2517

Yes but like you pointed it out, it’s more of an accessory than necessity which in itself is a risk, and like I said above, who knows in 50 years will people still show off their wealth with a mechanical watch? Or is it going to be something else entirely?

We simply don’t know the future. However, the same holds true for cars; they likely will be obsolete in some form or another in 100 years, if not sooner. And art. There is no practical use for art. But collectors will be collectors.

I think many preowned Patek (pre-company sale, it it happens) will remain collectible.

[s.m.b.]

Perhaps it'll be a similar arrangement to the one the Kaufmann family made with the Blackstone group when Blackstone expressed interest in Leica. If memories serves correct, that was set at 55% Kaufmanns/45% Blackstone.

[JorgeCCW]

Originally Posted by KetaPatek

some people will always wear jewelry, which is what these are; they just happen to tell the time as well.



there will always be show-offs and collectors out there, and those than want to demonstrate that they can afford vs those that can't or prefer not to. human nature.

I think the important point here is Jewelry, people used to favor the mechanical aspect of the watch over the jewelry aspect (dial and bracelet looks). And now is the opposite people favor the jewelry side over the mechanical one. People don’t care about the intricacy of a PCC movement, you don’t show that on the streets , all they care is does it shine right ? Do I look like a boss with it ? Am I on trend ? That’s the market !! And that’s unfortunate because the dress complicated watch is the essence of patek and that kind of watch is dying. Thanks God Patek has the Nautilus line


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[tom2517]

Originally Posted by tyler1980

i think if you position it correctly its always relevant. Look at vinyl records. Niche yes, but they are back in a big way. Its great for me because most of my favorite artists are releasing all of their new stuff on vinyl again.

A mechanical watch serves no practical purpose. IMO its more about the art, the craftsmanship in the same way vinyl is about the small details in the sound

I think any watch that isnt a quartz post 1970 is not necessary at all. But they live on.

Oh I agree, I am sure there is always a market for it. I am sure some writers still uses type writer because they love the smell of ink or the mechanical keyboards, or photographers still using film. But how big of a market is that going to be? Enough to sustain the business?

As for quartz watches, I think that is a different argument. Let’s say in 1985 you walk down the street, what can you use to tell you the time? You have no smartphone, so whether it’s quartz or mechanical watch, likely you still need one or the other. But in 2019, do you still need a mechanical watch to tell you the time? No because your phone can do so, it’s no longer a necessity.

Anyways, it’s hard for businesses to last centuries, just too much unpredictability. Something like only 60 companies still exist from Fortune 500 in 1955. Patek might go strong for another 50 years or it might not, I wouldn’t blame the Stern family if someone offer them 10B and they decided to sell.

[incontrol]

I can say with absolute certainty that if Patek is sold to a conglomerate, I have bought my last from them.

A large part of the appeal is they are independent and not motivated to make stock holders happy. The entire personality of Patek Philippe will change for the worst if owned by a conglomerate designed for shareholder profit.

I still love a good mechanical dress watch and a really nice mechanical sports watch for both the art and the function.

But that is just my thoughts...


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[Fat_ninja]

Bloomberg cited Berenberg.

Lol

They are like a tiny little pretend to be Bernstein shop in Europe. I probably would take it with a grainnof salt.

If the sterns were truely selling right now, you would hear it floated by a more reputable bank.


Also if they are sold to a conglomerate, we have also bought our last watches...

[tom2517]

Originally Posted by s.m.b.

Perhaps it'll be a similar arrangement to the one the Kaufmann family made with the Blackstone group when Blackstone expressed interest in Leica. If memories serves correct, that was set at 55% Kaufmanns/45% Blackstone.

I was thinking something similar to that, cash in but still negotiate to run the business, let someone else take the financial risks.

[tyler1980]

Originally Posted by Fat_ninja

Bloomberg cited Berenberg.

Lol

They are like a tiny little pretend to be Bernstein shop in Europe. I probably would take it with a grainnof salt.

If the sterns were truely selling right now, you would hear it floated by a more reputable bank.


Also if they are sold to a conglomerate, we have also bought our last watches...

who knows they could be drumming up interest before the IPO. Why sell it if you can just go public and then TS can remain the chairman and make bank

[tom2517]

Originally Posted by tyler1980

who knows they could be drumming up interest before the IPO. Why sell it if you can just go public and then TS can remain the chairman and make bank

I don’t know what’s worse, selling to a conglomerate or going public, personally like most here, I prefer Patek remain independently private.

[tyler1980]

Originally Posted by tom2517

I don’t know what’s worse, selling to a conglomerate or going public, personally like most here, I prefer Patek remain independently private.

me too. Just another possible angle worth speculation.

[Fat_ninja]

Originally Posted by tyler1980

who knows they could be drumming up interest before the IPO. Why sell it if you can just go public and then TS can remain the chairman and make bank

No one would go to Berenberg to drum up interest is my point

[tyler1980]

Originally Posted by Fat_ninja

No one would go to Berenberg to drum up interest is my point

plausible deniability

Its a non float, float

people in politics do that all the time. Use some non reputable or obscure outlet to float something. If its popular its confirmed, if its not they deny it.

[AAP8]

If Patek sells to a big conglomerate - outside of Rolex - I think it slowly kills the brand - Audemars takes over the #1 spot in the space Patek has in peoples mind and hearts - they are already in that top 3 trio of Rolex, Patek, AP

[tom2517]

Originally Posted by tyler1980

me too. Just another possible angle worth speculation.

Chances are it will all come to nothing, just a lively thread for everybody today

[toucan]

Originally Posted by nyc2la

We simply don’t know the future. However, the same holds true for cars; they likely will be obsolete in some form or another in 100 years, if not sooner. And art. There is no practical use for art. But collectors will be collectors.

I think many preowned Patek (pre-company sale, it it happens) will remain collectible.

Exactly!!!!!

[s.m.b.]

Originally Posted by tom2517

I don’t know what’s worse, selling to a conglomerate or going public, personally like most here, I prefer Patek remain independently private.

I am with you.

[tyler1980]

Originally Posted by AAP8

If Patek sells to a big conglomerate - outside of Rolex - I think it slowly kills the brand - Audemars takes over the #1 spot in the space Patek has in peoples mind and hearts - they are already in that top 3 trio of Rolex, Patek, AP

i like AP but i would not put them at #1. I think if patek gets sold people will reevaluate the whole idea of being independent. ALS moves up to #1, Patek/AP at #2 or #3 and it is interchangeable. I cant think of any reason besides the independent thing as to why ALS isnt in the top 2 now as resale has nothing to do with the watch but its the big drawback now as well as non independent.

Rolex is no where near the top of a HH list. Maybe best overall brand lists i would put them in the top 5, but not a HH list.

[Murcielagoboy2]

I would never buy another new Patek again if the company WAS sold.