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BumperX · 20 May 2019, 03:01 PM

Hello,

Newer member here but long time stalker. Going to be selling some Bitcoin to reinvest in something more enjoyable and tangible. I know the purists will answer the following question with "get the one you like best." On that note, I want to preface the Q with the following statement. I have 2 prerequisites when buying a watch:
1. I need to admire and enjoy the aesthetic.
2. It needs to retain or appreciate in value (I know this is not an ideal reason to many here). No more Tissot's, Oris, and other brands that popped my cherry during my 20s.

Selling the BTC to invest in watches is not a high ROI in my eyes, but I want to pull some out while its on this run and budgeted around $25k. Plus watches are just so cool and majestic!

The 3 watches that I have been eyeing are (ranked from most to least favorite):
1. Rolex white gold "Smurf."
2. AP ROO Diver 15703ST.
3. The 6 digit Polar Explorer II.

Respectively asking, on a pure "I will sell these in 8-10 years" valuation play, would you rather take:

A. Watch #2 & #3 ($21k total)
or
B. #1 ($26.5k)

I completely get that the market is fickle and all watches can tank but would love some empirical knowledge on dive watch valuations if possible. I am leaning heavy on option A because it diversifies, it's cheaper, and I get to add an AP to my budding collection....but I really love blue tones of the Smurf. FYI, SS custom Smurfs are not an option here. Thank you.

ILuvSubs · 23 May 2019, 04:19 PM

Hard to predict. I'd personally go with Option B. You don't see as many 116619LB for sale by the grey dealers as you used to. Looks like the Rolex shortage is not affecting the SS only and seem to be affecting PM too. If rumours of an update of the Submariner range with the new movement for next Baselworld are correct, then it potentially could be discontinued soon.

IMHO, the 6 digit Explorer II and AP ROO Diver are not as popular as the Smurf.

Jonesy2099 · 23 May 2019, 06:13 PM

I’d go with watch 1. It’s my favourite out of the other two.

WatchLurv · 23 May 2019, 06:18 PM

For 25K USD I would have done a 116613LB + 216570 (Around 12K + 6K) with a spare 7K leftover for a Submariner no date or bump it up to a sub date if you add a little bit more to the pot.

I wouldnt go with a Smurf...

Monte Cristo · 23 May 2019, 07:35 PM

Buy the piece(s) that you will enjoy wearing the most.
For me that would be the smurf, irrespective of what future value will be.

Rocket launcher · 23 May 2019, 07:43 PM

Option Craig..keep your bit coin

Harry-57 · 23 May 2019, 07:58 PM

I'd buy the Smurf. I can't tell you which one you like best. That will be your decision.

As to future value, who cares? It will be worth more or it won't. A Smurf probably won't. I don't see the Polar becoming ultra collectable either. It's amass produced tool watch. Beautiful watch though. A joy to own, admire and wear.

Property=investment. Stocks=gambling. Watches=enjoyable hobby.

AK797 · 23 May 2019, 08:08 PM

I'd sell more Bitcoin and get the Smurf and AP Diver, YOLO and no one knows the future but these are two strong brands and resales have never been firmer, in the old days you would have lost 40% plus straight away.

MTdweller · 23 May 2019, 08:26 PM

I used to have BLNR and 116613LB in my collection but wanted to try PM. So I traded both plus a little cash for the 116618LB and have been very happy. The look and feel of PM is phenomenal!

I say go for your #1 choice - the WG Sub. Take the plunge for PM and you can always add the other two later. With some popular SS pieces rapidly approaching those of their PM counterparts, it would appear there are increasing numbers of buyers opting to go PM. PM prices have been on the rise lately and I think they will hold their value going forward.

997 · 23 May 2019, 08:28 PM

Smurf.

Iowa 73 · 23 May 2019, 08:46 PM

Go with your favorite. That is the point of watches; buying what you enjoy...

brandrea · 23 May 2019, 08:52 PM

I wouldn’t buy any watch with a view toward seeing an increase in value.

Use your number #1 criteria, buy the aesthetic. Forget about #2 or it will suck the joy out of ownership

BumperX · 31 May 2019, 09:22 AM

Thank you for the replies to my annoying Q. I ended up buying

1. Polar Explorer II preowned excellent cond. full set $6800
2. Grand Seiko SBGA375 brand new from AD $3900
3. Quartz Tag beater diver watch $389 full set, pre owned condition
4. Hope to complete the list with a Grand Seiko Peacock. In talks now. If that falls through, there is a 116400 Milgauss I am eyeing.

I like the AP, but just a bit "too many eggs in 1 basket" for me. I like the variety and pleasure I get with these.

The GS spring drives MeSmeriZes me and the Peacock's Hi Beat 36,ooo vibrations is a movement I really like. I don't think the GS will be worth anything, but I don't think they will plummet either.

As for the Tag, it was a full set, I always liked their diver watch, and it was cheap...will make for a good beater watch when I'm tooling with cars or garden.

23 May 2019, 07:35 PM	#5
Monte Cristo "TRF" Member Join Date: Apr 2012 Location: Sydney Watch: ing you... Posts: 3,775	Buy the piece(s) that you will enjoy wearing the most. For me that would be the smurf, irrespective of what future value will be. __________________ 'I am easily satisfied with the very best' - Winston Churchill

23 May 2019, 08:46 PM	#11
Iowa 73 "TRF" Member Join Date: Nov 2016 Location: Iowa Watch: 116503 Posts: 54	Go with your favorite. That is the point of watches; buying what you enjoy... __________________ Oris, Omega, Tudor, Damasko, Rolex 116503

20 May 2019, 03:01 PM	#1
BumperX "TRF" Member Join Date: May 2019 Location: California Posts: 93	Which would you rather choose? Hello, Newer member here but long time stalker. Going to be selling some Bitcoin to reinvest in something more enjoyable and tangible. I know the purists will answer the following question with "get the one you like best." On that note, I want to preface the Q with the following statement. I have 2 prerequisites when buying a watch: 1. I need to admire and enjoy the aesthetic. 2. It needs to retain or appreciate in value (I know this is not an ideal reason to many here). No more Tissot's, Oris, and other brands that popped my cherry during my 20s. Selling the BTC to invest in watches is not a high ROI in my eyes, but I want to pull some out while its on this run and budgeted around $25k. Plus watches are just so cool and majestic! The 3 watches that I have been eyeing are (ranked from most to least favorite): 1. Rolex white gold "Smurf." 2. AP ROO Diver 15703ST. 3. The 6 digit Polar Explorer II. Respectively asking, on a pure "I will sell these in 8-10 years" valuation play, would you rather take: A. Watch #2 & #3 ($21k total) or B. #1 ($26.5k) I completely get that the market is fickle and all watches can tank but would love some empirical knowledge on dive watch valuations if possible. I am leaning heavy on option A because it diversifies, it's cheaper, and I get to add an AP to my budding collection....but I really love blue tones of the Smurf. FYI, SS custom Smurfs are not an option here. Thank you.

23 May 2019, 04:19 PM	#2
ILuvSubs 2024 Pledge Member Join Date: Feb 2015 Location: Sydney, Australia Posts: 1,011	Hard to predict. I'd personally go with Option B. You don't see as many 116619LB for sale by the grey dealers as you used to. Looks like the Rolex shortage is not affecting the SS only and seem to be affecting PM too. If rumours of an update of the Submariner range with the new movement for next Baselworld are correct, then it potentially could be discontinued soon. IMHO, the 6 digit Explorer II and AP ROO Diver are not as popular as the Smurf.

23 May 2019, 06:13 PM	#3
Jonesy2099 "TRF" Member Join Date: Aug 2016 Location: Milton Keynes Posts: 388	I’d go with watch 1. It’s my favourite out of the other two.

23 May 2019, 06:18 PM	#4
WatchLurv Banned Join Date: Jul 2018 Location: Moon Watch: Swiss Posts: 2,270	For 25K USD I would have done a 116613LB + 216570 (Around 12K + 6K) with a spare 7K leftover for a Submariner no date or bump it up to a sub date if you add a little bit more to the pot. I wouldnt go with a Smurf...

23 May 2019, 07:43 PM	#6
Rocket launcher Banned Join Date: Aug 2018 Location: England Posts: 989	Option Craig..keep your bit coin

23 May 2019, 07:58 PM	#7
Harry-57 2025 Pledge Member Join Date: Apr 2018 Real Name: Harry Location: England Posts: 10,918	I'd buy the Smurf. I can't tell you which one you like best. That will be your decision. As to future value, who cares? It will be worth more or it won't. A Smurf probably won't. I don't see the Polar becoming ultra collectable either. It's amass produced tool watch. Beautiful watch though. A joy to own, admire and wear. Property=investment. Stocks=gambling. Watches=enjoyable hobby.

23 May 2019, 08:08 PM	#8
AK797 2024 Pledge Member Join Date: Feb 2010 Real Name: Neil Location: UK Watch: ing ships roll in Posts: 59,369	I'd sell more Bitcoin and get the Smurf and AP Diver, YOLO and no one knows the future but these are two strong brands and resales have never been firmer, in the old days you would have lost 40% plus straight away.

23 May 2019, 08:26 PM	#9
MTdweller "TRF" Member Join Date: Jul 2015 Real Name: Ty Location: West Coast Watch: the time fly! Posts: 1,493	I used to have BLNR and 116613LB in my collection but wanted to try PM. So I traded both plus a little cash for the 116618LB and have been very happy. The look and feel of PM is phenomenal! I say go for your #1 choice - the WG Sub. Take the plunge for PM and you can always add the other two later. With some popular SS pieces rapidly approaching those of their PM counterparts, it would appear there are increasing numbers of buyers opting to go PM. PM prices have been on the rise lately and I think they will hold their value going forward.

23 May 2019, 08:28 PM	#10
997 "TRF" Member Join Date: Feb 2013 Location: SA Posts: 324	Smurf.

23 May 2019, 08:52 PM	#12
brandrea 2025 TitaniumYM Pledge Member Join Date: Jul 2013 Real Name: Brian (TBone) Location: canada Watch: es make me smile Posts: 79,618	I wouldn’t buy any watch with a view toward seeing an increase in value. Use your number #1 criteria, buy the aesthetic. Forget about #2 or it will suck the joy out of ownership

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31 May 2019, 09:22 AM	#13
BumperX "TRF" Member Join Date: May 2019 Location: California Posts: 93	Thank you for the replies to my annoying Q. I ended up buying 1. Polar Explorer II preowned excellent cond. full set $6800 2. Grand Seiko SBGA375 brand new from AD $3900 3. Quartz Tag beater diver watch $389 full set, pre owned condition 4. Hope to complete the list with a Grand Seiko Peacock. In talks now. If that falls through, there is a 116400 Milgauss I am eyeing. I like the AP, but just a bit "too many eggs in 1 basket" for me. I like the variety and pleasure I get with these. The GS spring drives MeSmeriZes me and the Peacock's Hi Beat 36,ooo vibrations is a movement I really like. I don't think the GS will be worth anything, but I don't think they will plummet either. As for the Tag, it was a full set, I always liked their diver watch, and it was cheap...will make for a good beater watch when I'm tooling with cars or garden.