Bump, Bump, Goose? S’long Nautilus speculators!

[Nayazec]

i hope this is the end of it, but i don't see this happening soon honestly. the 5711 or even the 5990 and all the other models in the middle (wit not a single mode exception) have only been moving upward for 6 months and it is so easy for Patek to even reduce further the production to keep the price. what is happening now is in Patek interest for sure because it is forcing buyers to buy non nautilus. i honestly don't see a way down. at best a statu qo on current prices. i hope i am wrong. i paid high premium on 5990, but i would like to pay retail on the 5711 next year!!

[Fat_ninja]

Originally Posted by Nayazec

i paid high premium on 5990, but i would like to pay retail on the 5711 next year!!

That’s it, look at it as averaging down :)

[Eagleeye1]

Originally Posted by bearxj86

I actually disagree but we are entitled to our opinions. I myself have a 3970 and no one can doubt movement finishing and complication. However- the finishing, concept and design of the Nautilus case and integrated bracelet is simply elegance personified. I saw a IWC Perpetual Calendar Chorograph Tourbillon in full yellow gold for $20k the other day. Are you really paying $130k for the "complication"?

To me the nautilus can be worn anywhere, anytime. It is the perfect watch.

To make steel (a much harder metal and harder to work with than PM) feel like silk on the wrist is no easy feat. To tone down the aggressive design of the Royal Oak and make an even more superior design (arguable I know) is a piece of design and horological history.

You are paying for arguably the most prestigious watch company in the world make you a pcc. You can find a nautilus type complication on a 500 dollar watch as well and saying it with all due respect because the I love my 5980. I bought my 5980 7 years ago at Wempe, it was just sitting in the showroom without any hype and nobody calling a feat of perfection.


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[Fat_ninja]

Originally Posted by Eagleeye1

You are paying for arguably the most prestigious watch company in the world make you a pcc. You can find a nautilus type complication on a 500 dollar watch as well and saying it with all due respect because the I love my 5980. I bought my 5980 7 years ago at Wempe, it was just sitting in the showroom without any hype and nobody calling a feat of perfection.


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This is just jewelry in my mind. I think its all cool and like some of these PCC’s but my iPhone is my perpetual at the moment. To emphasize the point Eastman’s kodak use to take great pics for its time...now we’ve all moved to DSLR’s


The nautilus is here and now and has stood test of time. Until it doesn’t.

[Xerxes77]

Not very soon...

[Eagleeye1]

Originally Posted by Fat_ninja

This is just jewelry in my mind. I think its all cool and like some of these PCC’s but my iPhone is my perpetual at the moment. To emphasize the point Eastman’s kodak use to take great pics for its time...now we’ve all moved to DSLR’s





The nautilus is here and now and has stood test of time. Until it doesn’t.

I think this is classic front running. Everyone loves the golden state warriors as long as they are on top. Simple hype, unavailability and a bunch of flippers trying to make a buck.


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[Fat_ninja]

Originally Posted by Eagleeye1

I think this is classic front running. Everyone loves the golden state warriors as long as they are on top. Simple hype, unavailability and a bunch of flippers trying to make a buck.


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I think they all have their time and place ...

[Calatrava r]

Originally Posted by Fat_ninja

This is just jewelry in my mind. I think its all cool and like some of these PCC’s but my iPhone is my perpetual at the moment. To emphasize the point Eastman’s kodak use to take great pics for its time...now we’ve all moved to DSLR’s


The nautilus is here and now and has stood test of time. Until it doesn’t.

Your point about cell phones underscores and helps explain the move from the highly complicated mechanical watches to simple time and perhaps, date too watches. The PCCs are not mere jewelry but are mechanical marvels. Clearly, high end Grand Complications are not most desired watches in today's watch market.

[pam66]

Originally Posted by Fat_ninja

This is just jewelry in my mind. I think its all cool and like some of these PCC’s but my iPhone is my perpetual at the moment. To emphasize the point Eastman’s kodak use to take great pics for its time...now we’ve all moved to DSLR’s

....

..and on to mirrorless from DSLR

[S``]

Gotta to love the predictions of a bubble popping....

Based on wanting to own one at MSRP or less....

Predictable much?

Great "discussion" that leads to the same deep end of a rabbit hole

[Commonproject]

Originally Posted by Fat_ninja

Lol... that’s the side gig. I was going to retire this year.

Can I take over? The payoff in the private equity game is too delayed.

[Fat_ninja]

Originally Posted by Calatrava r

Your point about cell phones underscores and helps explain the move from the highly complicated mechanical watches to simple time and perhaps, date too watches. The PCCs are not mere jewelry but are mechanical marvels. Clearly, high end Grand Complications are not most desired watches in today's watch market.

They told me that about the combustion engine as well ;). I’m not saying I don’t want one...I’m just being the devils advocate.



That said I’m currently waiting for the Lillium jet... forget the mid engine Corvette or the lambo...possibly a Tesla roadster....but definitley the Lilium jet.

https://lilium.com/


I use to be nostalgic... but then when I saw my 9 year old using 3 monitors, playing video game watching you tube and programming java script... it gives u a different perspective

[Fat_ninja]

Originally Posted by Commonproject

Can I take over? The payoff in the private equity game is too delayed.

Lol. Grass is always greener...

I miss my LO days of doing absolutely nothing

[RHIII]

Originally Posted by thomaspp

I am in agreement and think the end of this madness is over or almost over thankfully.



I long for the times when we could all enjoy the hobby

I wholeheartedly agree - and the ‘nonsense’ (IMHO) has been more detrimental to the hobby as most think.

Like with any market - It is only a matter of time before normalization starts.

What I’m curious about - is once things do start to normalize - how the ADs (that developed poor ‘practices’ will re-boot with their customers.

Just my .02


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[d11n]

the reality is that the SS watches everyone wants are not rare..they are hard to get...a very big difference when the tide runs out.

[SL BRABUS]

What all this mean...... Too many fake rich out there.........

[Aquaman]

[QUOTE=SL BRABUS;9909044]What all this mean...... Too many fake rich out there.........







not seen that statement in a while

[Fat_ninja]

Originally Posted by SL BRABUS

What all this mean...... Too many fake rich out there.........

Lol yup... I’m one of them :)

[Mrngrz46]

To the opener: your post is not an honest discussion is rather provocative and arrogant.

I personally believe that in 2020 nautilus will value even more than now.

So like Depeche Mode were singing: dream on dream oooonnn

[MadSpaniard]

It’s all really quite amazing. Who would have thought this would happen? I don’t recall everybody wetting themselves over the Nautilus just 3 or 5 years ago. And go back 2 or 3 years before that and Nautilus was often even dismissed as a “meh” daily Patek beater not a “real” Patek. Now everybody gets a woodie at the mere mention of the word.

It’s a nice watch. Yes it is. Very nice actually. But let’s try to maintain some perspective vs. the current pricing frenzy. Nothing has inherently changed with the watch itself - it’s not even an especially rare piece in terms of raw production numbers. Some famous people start to fancy something different and expensive and exclusive, some younger hipsters in jeans and t-shirts start cashing out shares and want people to take notice, some well-to-do professionals get fatter bonuses and get in the mood to splurge, all of the above start flooding social media with “Me and my Nauti” pics, and before you know it Nautilus becomes the “it” watch.

It’s fascinating to watch market forces do their thing sometimes.

[ToneLok]

Originally Posted by Mrngrz46

To the opener: your post is not an honest discussion is rather provocative and arrogant.

I personally believe that in 2020 nautilus will value even more than now.

So like Depeche Mode were singing: dream on dream oooonnn

Provocative sure, but arrogant? Puh-leaze. A bubble is a bubble is a bubble. It’s silly. Look up any bubble or frenzy that eventually burst and it’s textbook. What is arrogant - probably more accurately hubris- is the bad behavior by Patek to require anyone interested in buying at retail to have to buy a bunch of more expensive watches they don’t want and that are otherwise collecting dust on the shelves.

[Shack]

Originally Posted by ToneLok

What is arrogant - probably more accurately hubris- is the bad behavior by Patek to require anyone interested in buying at retail to have to buy a bunch of more expensive watches they don’t want and that are otherwise collecting dust on the shelves.

Ahh common practice with Ferrari, Porsche, Hermes, LV etc etc.

Engineered scarcity - I for one don't mind as I enjoy playing the game trying to get the products at RRP :) .

[Russell996]

Originally Posted by ToneLok

What is arrogant - probably more accurately hubris- is the bad behavior by Patek to require anyone interested in buying at retail to have to buy a bunch of more expensive watches they don’t want and that are otherwise collecting dust on the shelves.

Patek don’t require this unless you are arrogant and want to jump the queue.

[ToneLok]

Originally Posted by Russell996

Patek don’t require this unless you are arrogant and want to jump the queue.

Oh c’mon. Name calling? Really? Lame. Again, the message from ADs is you can get on the list but the wait is indeterminate unless you buy a couple.

[Russell996]

Originally Posted by ToneLok

Oh c’mon. Name calling? Really? Lame. Again, the message from ADs is you can get on the list but the wait is indeterminate unless you buy a couple.

And? Wait.

[GB-man]

Is there anyone here who purchased a nautilus more than 3 years ago and thinks it is the greatest thing since sliced bread and will continue to rise in value?

I am seriously asking.

[GB-man]

Originally Posted by Russell996

And? Wait.

Russell you don't want to be seen in public with that geezer grand comp 5370. Let me do you a favor and trade you this 2011 5711 with a horrible polish and extract papers for it so you can be cool

[Russell996]

Originally Posted by GB-man

Russell you don't want to be seen in public with that geezer grand comp 5370. Let me do you a favor and trade you this 2011 5711 with a horrible polish and extract papers for it so you can be cool

Ahhhh, tempting, but NO.

[gmstevenson]

Originally Posted by ToneLok

Oh c’mon. Name calling? Really? Lame. Again, the message from ADs is you can get on the list but the wait is indeterminate unless you buy a couple.

Since your love affair with Nautilus/Aquanaut runs deep and spans decades (as you said in your earlier post) I'm a little surprised why you chose to wait until now to try to get one. Hopefully you haven't succumb to the pressures of the market frenzy.

In all seriousness, while I suspect the secondary prices may come down, I really don't see these pieces becoming readily available at ADs in the future without a prior purchase history. Whether it lasts or not, I think ADs and Patek have learned some valuable market lessons from the past two years and that these pieces -- like Rolex with the Daytona -- will continue to be given to customers with established purchase histories with the brand. Especially at ADs in affluent markets, like the Bay Area.

The good news is that secondary prices may well come down such that they can be purchased in the secondary market for more modest premiums down the road.

[gmstevenson]

Originally Posted by GB-man

Is there anyone here who purchased a nautilus more than 3 years ago and thinks it is the greatest thing since sliced bread and will continue to rise in value?

I am seriously asking.

I suspect when the secondary prices level out and start to drop, we will see a lot more owners who purchased at retail looking to trade up into more complicated references.