Talking Stocks 2.0

[RyanO]

Originally Posted by RBradleigh

I swear that stock is as volatile as bitcoin

I was thinking the same. I’ve been trying to re enter in the high 70s but missing the mark...


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[JParm]

Originally Posted by avidflyer

FSLY making a run today

Originally Posted by RBradleigh

I swear that stock is as volatile as bitcoin

Originally Posted by RyanO

I was thinking the same. I’ve been trying to re enter in the high 70s but missing the mark...


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I was one of the first to bring up FSLY here and was big a bull as any in FSLY...

These days, I only play the stock in options. Management didn't provide what I was looking for over couple earnings calls and the volatility has made the stock less than ideal from an investment standpoint (i.e. too much play to go long in it). Again though, a great stock for options.

Still bullish, still pretty fully invested, still all growth stocks...just not FSLY.

[chsu74]

Also bottom fed AMWL at $22. That is working out nicely.

[HippoPAPAmus]

Originally Posted by chsu74

Also bottom fed AMWL at $22. That is working out nicely.

I sold my shares shares shortly after the high back in October and meant to get some options last week when it was in the mid-20’s, but got distracted. Big whiff.


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[Kowaco]

I'm doing some rebalancing for 2021 and I am curious about the stock-bond mix. The best I can tell is that I would rather hold cash than bonds. It seems the return on the bonds and their dividends is marginal. I understand the bonds act as a sort of ballast, but during the fall of the market this year the bonds fell also, not as much as stocks of course. I'm not a stock picker although I did luck out and bought TSLA at the beginning of 2020, the rest is in vanguard funds. Even Jack Bogle said in the long term stocks outperform and the bonds were meant to give more stability to your portfolio. I think at some point he said the S&P index fund VOO and the bond index fund were really all you needed. I understand that long term the cash is not really doing anything for me and eventually it needs to go into a bond or a stock fund. Right now I'm holding 15% cash and don't expect to get at any of this money for at least 5 years. I wonder if I should wait for a pullback and put the money into VOO or just drop it in BND and forget about it. I just don't see the advantage of bonds at least not today and I realize it wasn't always that way and may not be that way in the future. Any comments because I just don't see the value of bonds right now.

[chsu74]

Originally Posted by Kowaco

I'm doing some rebalancing for 2021 and I am curious about the stock-bond mix. The best I can tell is that I would rather hold cash than bonds. It seems the return on the bonds and their dividends is marginal. I understand the bonds act as a sort of ballast, but during the fall of the market this year the bonds fell also, not as much as stocks of course. I'm not a stock picker although I did luck out and bought TSLA at the beginning of 2020, the rest is in vanguard funds. Even Jack Bogle said in the long term stocks outperform and the bonds were meant to give more stability to your portfolio. I think at some point he said the S&P index fund VOO and the bond index fund were really all you needed. I understand that long term the cash is not really doing anything for me and eventually it needs to go into a bond or a stock fund. Right now I'm holding 15% cash and don't expect to get at any of this money for at least 5 years. I wonder if I should wait for a pullback and put the money into VOO or just drop it in BND and forget about it. I just don't see the advantage of bonds at least not today and I realize it wasn't always that way and may not be that way in the future. Any comments because I just don't see the value of bonds right now.

Food for thought. Have a lot of respect for Cathie

https://youtu.be/WCBUhQ6jJoM

[Kowaco]

Originally Posted by chsu74

Food for thought. Have a lot of respect for Cathie

https://youtu.be/WCBUhQ6jJoM

She was one reason I bought TSLA. I think I may put a portion of money in the ARK funds, she seems to focus on the things that are making life better and the future. She was completely behind TSLA and it sold me.

[woowoo]

Not exactly related to this thread, not sure where to post. Does anyone on TRF also work in finance? I would be open to networking with fellow finance professionals also into watches. (I'm buyside, in alts, +1B, +10 years in, LA/NYC, ).

[chsu74]

Have been holding PRVB for months on end. Felt like swimming upstream most of the time but their T1D vaccine is going to get FDA approval soon and price will easily 2-4X..

[chsu74]

Originally Posted by 7sins

Below is the option trade flow for SNOW over the last two weeks, filtered for any trades above $500k. Nothing too significant besides the 1.77M call order end of Friday. Most importantly, look at all of the expirations on these orders, several of them are right before the lockup expires on the 14th and ALL of them are before the March lockup expiration. Also, look at that strike price for the orders, the majority of them are ITM or ATM, you aren't seeing aggressive OTM buying.

With the float being so small and the short interest rising, it is possible this continues to move to the upside and there will be volatility. Over the next few weeks I suspect it settles below $300 when lockups expire. With the markets at all time highs, I think it is an ideal time to put a hedge on if we see a pull back (especially if the stimulus continues to be postponed). I find it much harder to find short/put positions than longs but this one has some merit.

As a side note, SNOW CEO is making $95M/mo with current comp plan, I can't fathom how that is even possible.

Thanks on the heads up on SNOW. I sold $430 calls today and watched it melt. Will continue to nip at it and maybe take chunks every now and then..

[7sins]

Originally Posted by woowoo

Not exactly related to this thread, not sure where to post. Does anyone on TRF also work in finance? I would be open to networking with fellow finance professionals also into watches. (I'm buyside, in alts, +1B, +10 years in, LA/NYC, ).

I'm in asset management, $600B+ shop, retail distribution and based in LA.

Originally Posted by chsu74

Thanks on the heads up on SNOW. I sold $430 calls today and watched it melt. Will continue to nip at it and maybe take chunks every now and then..

Anytime, almost gave me a heart attack when it opened up 9% this morning then ended flat, you can see massive swings with just light volume due to their small float. My may 250p I posted yesterday was positive 13% today with the stock flat. I re-read their S1, looks like lockup expiration next week is going to be much bigger than I thought. 25% I mentioned will unlock, as I re-read their s1 on lockup (posted below), if the price is above 133% of the original IPO price, which is well north of, even more shares are unlocked. This is going to be massive. Hoping it continues to push higher this week to buy more puts, float at 24M will 2-3x next week with massive selling pressure from profit takers. See you in the 200s. $$$$ Wish me luck boys, have my eyes on a new Patek 5270P.

Beginning on the 91st day after the date of this prospectus, our current employees with a title below vice president, current contractors, former employees (other than Robert L. Muglia, our former chief executive officer, and his affiliates), and former contractors, may sell a number of shares equal to 25% of their Vested Holdings.
•Beginning on the second trading day immediately following the day that the closing price of our Class A common stock on The New York Stock Exchange exceeds 133% of the initial public offering price as set forth on the cover page of this prospectus, for at least 10 trading days in the 15 trading day period following the 90th day after the date of this prospectus, all other non-employee stockholders who are not members of our board of directors or our affiliates and whose shares were not included in the First Release (including Mr. Muglia and his affiliates), may sell a number of shares equal to 25% of their Vested Holdings. We will report such release on a current report on Form 8-K following the closing of trading on the date that is at least two trading days prior to such release.
•Beginning on the commencement of trading on the second full trading day following our second public release of quarterly or annual financial results following the date of this prospectus, all remaining shares will be eligible for sale.

[beshannon]

DoorDash, FireEye, GameStop, Stimulus Plan - 5 Things You Must Know Wednesday

https://www.thestreet.com/markets/5-...dnesday-120920

[chadwick4eva]

Originally Posted by Kowaco

I'm doing some rebalancing for 2021 and I am curious about the stock-bond mix. The best I can tell is that I would rather hold cash than bonds. It seems the return on the bonds and their dividends is marginal. I understand the bonds act as a sort of ballast, but during the fall of the market this year the bonds fell also, not as much as stocks of course. I'm not a stock picker although I did luck out and bought TSLA at the beginning of 2020, the rest is in vanguard funds. Even Jack Bogle said in the long term stocks outperform and the bonds were meant to give more stability to your portfolio. I think at some point he said the S&P index fund VOO and the bond index fund were really all you needed. I understand that long term the cash is not really doing anything for me and eventually it needs to go into a bond or a stock fund. Right now I'm holding 15% cash and don't expect to get at any of this money for at least 5 years. I wonder if I should wait for a pullback and put the money into VOO or just drop it in BND and forget about it. I just don't see the advantage of bonds at least not today and I realize it wasn't always that way and may not be that way in the future. Any comments because I just don't see the value of bonds right now.

How old are you, how healthy is your financial situation relative to where you want to be when you retire? What are your goals- capital appreciation, capital preservation, fixed income? Need more context to give any sound advice.

[BroncoOne]

Originally Posted by Kowaco

I'm doing some rebalancing for 2021 and I am curious about the stock-bond mix. The best I can tell is that I would rather hold cash than bonds. It seems the return on the bonds and their dividends is marginal. I understand the bonds act as a sort of ballast, but during the fall of the market this year the bonds fell also, not as much as stocks of course. I'm not a stock picker although I did luck out and bought TSLA at the beginning of 2020, the rest is in vanguard funds. Even Jack Bogle said in the long term stocks outperform and the bonds were meant to give more stability to your portfolio. I think at some point he said the S&P index fund VOO and the bond index fund were really all you needed. I understand that long term the cash is not really doing anything for me and eventually it needs to go into a bond or a stock fund. Right now I'm holding 15% cash and don't expect to get at any of this money for at least 5 years. I wonder if I should wait for a pullback and put the money into VOO or just drop it in BND and forget about it. I just don't see the advantage of bonds at least not today and I realize it wasn't always that way and may not be that way in the future. Any comments because I just don't see the value of bonds right now.

Jamie Dimon says he won’t touch bonds with a 10 foot pole. That said his firm has to hold some per their various funds, structural rules etc.

But that’s him, not the average investor. You need advice based on your specific personal situation.

You mentioned cash and I’m beginning to worry about cash positions, not just the low yields out there but the short term structural issues requiring the Fed to keep stepping in. Someone posted an article yesterday running through this. It’s hard to argue against being in equities over the last several years, but again, that can change on a dime and if you need cash next month it’s a gut check.

Real estate can be a good balance, again depending on your circumstances and the tax environment, which is due to change.

Or buy a kick ass boat with the cash! LOL. It will immediately depreciate but you do get to enjoy it.

[JParm]

https://www.businesswire.com/news/ho...eting-Content/

U up pre-market on this news.

Another stock that broke my "don't invest in IPOs too early rule", but their business model and future outlook were just too good to ignore. It has risen steadily since (I'm up nearly 60%, and that's with consistently adding along the way), but it's definitely one to keep an eye on with any pullbacks. 3D is here to stay, and they're one of the best at doing it.

[0xalate]

Originally Posted by 7sins

I'm in asset management, $600B+ shop, retail distribution and based in LA.



Anytime, almost gave me a heart attack when it opened up 9% this morning then ended flat, you can see massive swings with just light volume due to their small float. My may 250p I posted yesterday was positive 13% today with the stock flat. I re-read their S1, looks like lockup expiration next week is going to be much bigger than I thought. 25% I mentioned will unlock, as I re-read their s1 on lockup (posted below), if the price is above 133% of the original IPO price, which is well north of, even more shares are unlocked. This is going to be massive. Hoping it continues to push higher this week to buy more puts, float at 24M will 2-3x next week with massive selling pressure from profit takers. See you in the 200s. $$$$ Wish me luck boys, have my eyes on a new Patek 5270P.

Beginning on the 91st day after the date of this prospectus, our current employees with a title below vice president, current contractors, former employees (other than Robert L. Muglia, our former chief executive officer, and his affiliates), and former contractors, may sell a number of shares equal to 25% of their Vested Holdings.
•Beginning on the second trading day immediately following the day that the closing price of our Class A common stock on The New York Stock Exchange exceeds 133% of the initial public offering price as set forth on the cover page of this prospectus, for at least 10 trading days in the 15 trading day period following the 90th day after the date of this prospectus, all other non-employee stockholders who are not members of our board of directors or our affiliates and whose shares were not included in the First Release (including Mr. Muglia and his affiliates), may sell a number of shares equal to 25% of their Vested Holdings. We will report such release on a current report on Form 8-K following the closing of trading on the date that is at least two trading days prior to such release.
•Beginning on the commencement of trading on the second full trading day following our second public release of quarterly or annual financial results following the date of this prospectus, all remaining shares will be eligible for sale.

Wow this was a really good call. After doing some DD on my end, I've added to my positions earlier this morning. Thanks for the insight!

[Flex368]

Thanks @ 7sins.

[7sins]

Originally Posted by 0xalate

Wow this was a really good call. After doing some DD on my end, I've added to my positions earlier this morning. Thanks for the insight!

Originally Posted by Flex368

Thanks @ 7sins.

Thanks guys! I think this is just the beginning, today's 5% drop perhaps in slight anticipation of next week's unlock and also profit takers shifting to new IPOs. Real vol should hit next week on the 14th when 11M shares unlock (40% of the float, insane) and if we hold above 279 for 15 days after, another 37m shares unlock. Praying that 279 holds, then it will be a cliff dive, that is monumental, there are no where near enough bids to support any resistance to probably low 200s if that second wave of shares hits the market. Hopefully everyone is making money, those feb 300p and may 250p I suggested earlier this week printed 29% and 13% respective gains today.

To put this in perspective of over-valuation, as of yesterday, Tesla traded at 22 x 2021 sales and SNOW is 190 x 2021 sales...

Or worst case, I am completely wrong and will probably have to change to a new user name :p

[JWD531]

Originally Posted by 7sins

Thanks guys! I think this is just the beginning, today's 5% drop perhaps in slight anticipation of next week's unlock and also profit takers shifting to new IPOs. Real vol should hit next week on the 14th when 11M shares unlock (40% of the float, insane) and if we hold above 279 for 15 days after, another 37m shares unlock. Praying that 279 holds, then it will be a cliff dive, that is monumental, there are no where near enough bids to support any resistance to probably low 200s if that second wave of shares hits the market. Hopefully everyone is making money, those feb 300p and may 250p I suggested earlier this week printed 29% and 13% respective gains today.

To put this in perspective of over-valuation, as of yesterday, Tesla traded at 22 x 2021 sales and SNOW is 190 x 2021 sales...

Or worst case, I am completely wrong and will probably have to change to a new user name :p

Haha @user name switch!


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[Flex368]

Originally Posted by 7sins

Or worst case, I am completely wrong and will probably have to change to a new user name :p

What about 'iwillnotgetmy5270p'

[beshannon]

SBUX with a beat and target raise, I am staying long this name

https://seekingalpha.com/news/364321...bility-cleared

Starting to look at any tax loss selling or trimming prior to year end, most of which I have already done. Not buying anything here and would tend to sell into strength in anticipation of a drop to buy in January.

[JParm]

https://www.barrons.com/articles/big...?mod=hp_LATEST

For those concerned with tech after yesterday's selloff. I continue to remain long in all things growth.

Will look to see if we follow the 3 day rule before adding, however.

[chadwick4eva]

Originally Posted by beshannon

SBUX with a beat and target raise, I am staying long this name

https://seekingalpha.com/news/364321...bility-cleared

Starting to look at any tax loss selling or trimming prior to year end, most of which I have already done. Not buying anything here and would tend to sell into strength in anticipation of a drop to buy in January.

Looks very likely we will have another pullback today. What if a large pullback happens over the next week or so prior to January? I think that you have to be a bit of contrarian when thinking about tax loss harvesting because everyone is thinking about doing the same thing. If we have multiple days of pullback it could be the second best buying opportunity of the year, no?

[beshannon]

Originally Posted by chadwick4eva

Looks very likely we will have another pullback today. What if a large pullback happens over the next week or so prior to January? I think that you have to be a bit of contrarian when thinking about tax loss harvesting because everyone is thinking about doing the same thing. If we have multiple days of pullback it could be the second best buying opportunity of the year, no?

Yes and no, everyone's situation is different with different costs basis.

This is where your discipline has to beat your conviction.

[chadwick4eva]

Originally Posted by beshannon

Yes and no, everyone's situation is different with different costs basis.

This is where your discipline has to beat your conviction.

Yeah the discipline element is tough- hard to not buy in when things get worse day by day. I raised cash and sold out of several positions as well in the past week or two. If we have another slide for a few more days in a row- a lot of people will be thinking about tax loss harvesting their immediate losses. It just seems that it could lead to a much bigger slide for that reason.

Yesterday was very strange because it was one of those days where we also saw treasuries slide pretty significantly along with stocks (I think it was over 1% on the extended durations). Given where we are right now I took that as "normal" because investor sentiment is still healing, but not when stocks also slide a bunch! A lot of "big money" names have been taking money off the table recently, probably in anticipation of some kind of pullback as you've said you thought would happen @beshannon. Clearly most of the market is overbought- feels like this could be a very weird close to the end of the year.

[JParm]

Nice bounce here in the Nasdaq, which I was not expecting after yesterday's selloff.

I had bought calls a bit early yesterday but they're looking good now.

[RyanO]

Originally Posted by jpeezy14@hotmail.com

Nice bounce here in the Nasdaq, which I was not expecting after yesterday's selloff.

I had bought calls a bit early yesterday but they're looking good now.

Was not expecting this either. As you’ve mentioned, usually tech seems to take a beating for three days before turning the corner.


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[vipereaper30]

BCRX is off to the races and now I'm looking for CRVS to catch up. They just released data that appeared to get lost and I don't think is captured in the share price yet. Although weird price action today...

https://corvuspharma.gcs-web.com/new...-inhibitor-cpi

Two of seven patients had objective responses with one complete response. That's very promising IMO and I have a lot of optimism in this compound. Corvus has a lot of shots on goal, just as BioCryst, yet a lot smaller market cap...for now at least.

Ciforadenant, CPI-006, CPI-818, CPI-182, CPI-195
https://www.corvuspharma.com/our-science/our-pipeline/

[logo]

Looking at CRSR. Down quite a bit from their recent highs, nice revenues, low P/S ratio, decent P/E ratio. Having a tough time determining their growth trajectory, given their major market is gamers. Of course NVDA for GPUs, but wondering if CRSR might be an alternative computer hardware business that may hold some promise for decent returns. Any thoughts are welcome and appreciated :)

[scarlet knight]

Anyone buying ABNB?