Discussion of rolex market share

[sub2004]

Has anyone noticed that Rolex pretty much didnt do anything with their watches for like the last 10 years (or more) and now suddenly over a 2 year period they have put out new clasps, chapter rings, case designs, ceramic bezels and the sort.

Not to be a fear mongerer, but for the use of a better word, i think Rolex is "scared". I think its done its market analysis and more importantly, like any major business it has done 5-10 year projections on sale and market share. These would i presume show a trend towards other watch brands.

I cant speak for others, nor do i have market data. But i can take my own example. In the early days of this disease, every 4-6k that i would have saved, i would have put it towards a rolex. I would not dream of putting that money to "other" brands such as omega, cartier,breitling (all of whom i respect).

But now, rolex is very careful to realise that people like me are going into our AD and instead of just putting a sea-dweller on the nice green jewellery mat, the sea-dweller is put alongside an IWC and a Panerai. And in more occasions than rolex would care, people like me are leaving the store with a panerai or an IWC.

Rolex is playing in a very competitive market now, the old bracelets, same models, cheap boxes wont do it for some of us anymore. It used to, becuase there was no near alternative.

In the last year we have seen a thicker GMT (hmmm... a thick case, golly gosh who would that compete against...), a new better box to hold your rolex (havent we been harping on about these old green crap boxes for yonks), ceramics (just in case there are those who have been living under the proverbial rock, Panerai introduced the Ceramic Luminor prototypes last year and this year previewed them again, along with radiomir blackseal ceramic)

They may win the heart of the "i need one good watch" guy, but the push to hook the "whats gonna be me 2nd watch" guy is very competitve, plus even first buyers are moving into other brands. My AD here is sold out of Omega Speedmaster Moon Watches, yet has an LV, countless SD and subs lying around in the display cabinet.

Sorry if i rubbed anyone the wrong way, but it would be nice to discuss this topic. As i said, i dont have hard data. My obervations are based on the fact that my legal practice is within 5 minute walk to 3 high end swiss ADs, and i pretty much walk buy every one and say high almost every day during my lunch break. I have noticed these things over the last 2 years, especially when i am in the store and see young 1st time buyers in the AD looking at the rolex, then ending up buying another watch for the same or greater price. This is even with, as you all know, we have some great prices and discounts on rolex here.

Have a nice day friends.

[OysterDavid]

One of the problems with trying to outguess or analyze the trends with a company as scecrative as Rolex is viewing through your own experiences. You, and I, live our lives, enjoy our watch collecting hobby, spend time on the Rolex internet boards, debate the virtues and downsides to various models, stare endlessly at our daily choice in watch wearing, stop and look in every watch jeweler's window, reset the time to the second, and then sometimes draw the conclusion that a whole lot of other people think as we do.

As much as I enjoy trading thoughts and comments here and on another watch forum or two, I'm of the opinion that in the broad scheme of things, it's a pretty small number of folks who obsess as we do in regards to our timepieces of choice.

It has been written here that Rolex Geneva can pretty much sell darn near every watch produced each year in the current environment. I don't doubt that somewhere in the innards of Geneva's mother ship or at Rolex 'Where ever' (USA, Hong Kong, Austrailia) there are discussions of how marketing trends are playing out, but by and large, Rolex through the years has not been immune to change, subtle as it has been. It's not so really long ago that there were bubblebacks. The Datejust has evolved even though the case didn't change much. The Yacht Master was for Rolex a bold new design back in the 90's. The Quartz has come and gone. The bracelets have evolved. The GMT's and Explorer II's have gone through changes and there's the Masterpiece line segmented to the very high end market. Who knows, maybe those new GMT, Date and Air King models will make their debut in Basal in another few weeks.

I just try very hard to allow Rolex to do whatever it's going to do. I don't think that because you or I find another brand's offering tempting and attractive that Rolex is running scared. There's a tremendous amount of history and reputation that is honored by Rolex, and that's a big part of their marketing. I think the new products will emerge much like changes with the Jaguar or Bentley or BMW or Mercedes car lines with changes that hold to the historical benchmarks, perhaps more internal than external. But to think that Rolex is going to make a design decision because you or I or others on these forums sometimes look at other watch lines is not realistic.

[Ironstark]

Speaking as someone on the inside of the organisation, I would have to aggree with OysterDavid.
The devolopement of new models is something that is measured in years.What has been unveiled recently is not a reaction to other brands, it is part of their continuing refinement of the products. Making use of new research,methods and materials. Rolex in Geneva has spent the last 100 years (well 99) establishing, building and preserving their reputation. Something they are as good at as producing watches.
What you are seeing now is the fruit of their massive restructuring over the last 10 or more years. They have systematically set about bringing all of their manufacturing under one banner, in house.
Whereas in the past there were certain manufacturers who produced exclusively for them, now all of these have been bought up and are all part of Rolex Geneva SA, lock stock and barrel.
I know that their market share (in my neck of the woods anyway) has increased year on year for the last 15 years, profits are up. So far recession is not a word in their dictonary, I hope it stays that way.
What you are seeing now is proactive rather than reactive.
They have always refined their products, taking note of feedback from the RSC`s and the customers thats what they are doing now.
I`m sure there are more refinements on the way. In a few weeks we may see some of them.

[Kris]

Speaking from my own research here in Canada, when I was looking at buying my first Rolex, I was looking at Omega's also.

From what I found, the most expensive Omega I saw at European Jeweller's was the James Bond model which sold for $5300 CAD MSRP. All the other's they had in stock ranged from $2300-$3500.

The least expensive Rolex I saw was the Blue Air King. It costs $4140 CAD MSRP at my AD. The Air King is the most basic and simplistic of any Rolex model I have seen. For $3500 CAD, you could get a real nice Omega with quite a few bells and whistles on it and still get a nice discount of do I dare suggest 35% off the MSRP???????

I think that's why you see more people walking out of AD's with Omega's and Tags rather than a Rolex. For the simple fact you get more for less and the quality is quite comparible if not better?

[nko51]

I think that they had to justify the Feb 04 and Oct 06 increases, so they in my opinion beefed up the models and made some changes. I like what they have done though!

Originally Posted by OysterDavid

As much as I enjoy trading thoughts and comments here and on another watch forum or two, I'm of the opinion that in the broad scheme of things, it's a pretty small number of folks who obsess as we do in regards to our timepieces of choice.

I no nothing of the inner workings of Rolex, and Ironstark has clarified it from his inside view. However I believe that OysterDavid has hit the nail on the head. Most people who purchase a Rolex buy it for the name and the "luxury" and "I have made it" factor. Despite what other manufacturers might be doing, or how good their products are when compared to Rolex, Rolex will always have the "crown for every achievement" market locked up.

Now in the WIS crowd, some people love the glacier-like pace of Rolex changes and feel it shows stablility and "resistance to trends" in the market. Others feel the designs are stale and tired. As Kris has pointed out, for many the "bang for the buck" you get with buying a Rolex (in particular sport models that are not easily discounted) does not compute. I guess I am in that camp, although I respect the watches for what they are.

[Submadatejust]

Perhaps not directly to the thesis of this thread, but my own observations for what they are worth:

There are more millionaires now than at any other point in history, in spite of the pinch being felt by many in the middle-class. We in the investment banking/hedge fund world (well, perhaps not me personally, sad to say) just went through a record-breaking bonus season.

This has fueled a boom in the luxury watch market. I suspect Rolex are keen to have a broad offering to appeal to this expanding customer base and I believe our friend above who opined that the firm's product line growth has been planned out long ago.

I notice the emergence of not just new Rolexes and models from other well-known marques, but heck! I am seeing ads for watch brands that claim to have been around since Napoleon and are vying for a place on my wrist!

Breguet? Ok, I know them, but only b/c the store is on my way home from work (depuis 1775 :roll:) Blancpain? Ditto. Walk past them (since 1735). Zenith. Never heard of them (since 1865). Glashutte (since 1878). Never heard of them. Girard-Perregaux? De Grisogono?? Bell & Ross?? Maurice LaCroix? Graham?? Jaeger-LeCoultre? Hublot? Chopard?

To the extent that I have a point, I think it may be that Rolex may be diversifying for reasons other than fear of losing market share -- they may just be riding a wave.

[nko51]

Much is spoken! but very little is said!
There is so much in this world! I have no use for!
Rolex stands for quality! and I stand by Rolex!

[Gaijin]

leaving the store with a panerai or an IWC.



Speeak for yourself. Never Happen. Rolex all the way.

[Mr. K]

Is Rolex scared? Is it to justify a price increase? More competition?

Whatever it is, I am glad they are making some long over due changes. Just hope they do not change the styles.

[nko51]

Originally Posted by Mr. K

Is Rolex scared? Is it to justify a price increase? More competition?

Whatever it is, I am glad they are making some long over due changes. Just hope they do not change the styles.

Why would a imfamous institution like Rolex be afraid! Rolex is a trust now!
If they close shop, where will we get our genuine parts and service from. We all better start buying more Rolex's to show them how much we really appreciate their most high standards of watch building quality.

[mansion]

Gentlemen,

What percentage of Rolex owners or potential buyers are connoisseurs? How many would recognise a nice movement? How many appreciate the gold-plated hour-compensating spatula lock widget?

Very few. I know - I'm one of the guys who bought a Rolex because of the name. Until I started looking, I had no idea what a bezel was. Or the number of the movement, or the model numbers, or how to set the date on a GMT.

I suspect Rolex has a very big market in people who want to own a flash watch, and who will go for Rolex because of its reputation.

So long as the 'name' stands up, Rolex will continue to do fine.

[padi56]

Originally Posted by mansion

Gentlemen,

What percentage of Rolex owners or potential buyers are connoisseurs? How many would recognise a nice movement? How many appreciate the gold-plated hour-compensating spatula lock widget?

Very few. I know - I'm one of the guys who bought a Rolex because of the name. Until I started looking, I had no idea what a bezel was. Or the number of the movement, or the model numbers, or how to set the date on a GMT.

I suspect Rolex has a very big market in people in want to own a flash watch, and who will go for Rolex because of its reputation.

So long as the 'name' stands up, they'll continue to do fine.

To many non WIS types the brand Rolex now have such a powerful brand image. That your average guy on the street now by the fantastic pure marketing power over the years by Rolex. Believes they are the best watches in the world,and invented everything in the watch world today.It really is as simple as that,now some a bit more educated in the watch world, may know the real facts and this is not totally true.

Now if you were to take let's say 100 non WIS people at random from the street and show them a £4,000 Rolex and say a £35,000 Patek Philip or many other high end brands. I would say that 90- 95% would choose the Rolex watch over the Patek/other brand. Simply because of the brand awareness and the fact that the word "Rolex" is always linked to luxury,and quality through the amazingly shrewd and clever marketing though the years.Old Hans was quite a remarkable man,he seized every new watch idea, or patent available to call his own,and any new movement design,to make his watches a better product.And the old saying with Rolex today if it ain't broke why fix it.Design all in all has not changed much in 40 years,sure a few very minor cosmetic,and slight movement changes,but very little else.

Now in the early years Rolex,seized every sporting or expedition venture to sponsor and get his watches into the public limelight.You could say that Hans was one of the first to see the real power of advertising.And having a good product with very clever marketing thats what has made Rolex into the most recognised watch brand today.But as much as I respect the brand but mainly now for the history of the Rolex company and a very fine product.After being around watches for well over 30 years,and my first real fascination with a Lucerne mechanical watch.But now I can respect all the many brands in todays watch world.Right from Rolex to Patek to Seiko to Alpha they all have there place in this crazy horological world.

So now IMHO Rolex is now becoming a "victim" of its own success.And in danger of becoming the Timex of past days.There are now millions upon millions of them in the world today.So if you are into the Prestige of a once pretty exclusive watch afraid now its slightly lacking, its perhaps now, because they are quite expensive.Rolex have a great history, but so do many other brands out there today.Rolex they are, without doubt, the largest independent Swiss watchmaker. Producing around 850,000 plus watches a year, and they sell every watch they make. They are dependent on no single market today,unlike years ago, you could really say that the world is their Rolex Oyster.

[ppeddy]

Interesting post. I thought I'd chime in with me two cents. Maybe give a different perspective. I'm in the market for my first "real" watch. I've loved watches since I was a kid and have owned many over the years. Toy watches is what I call them now. Most are long gone. What I'm looking for now is a watch that will last and will have the ability carry with it a part of me to my son one day. Not many things in the world today have the ability to add value above and beyond their actual cost to produce, but as already mentioned above Rolex has found a way through careful marketing and planning to achieve just that. I want this watch to be special to my son, something just between us so he will remember me when he wears it. I also know that others will recognize the watch and know that it is something special in a world of mostly disposable goods. The value added to these watches is their ability for them to signify excellence. I'm not rich and this watch will be an investment for me. But I think it will be worth it. Maybe I've bought into the Rolex marketing scheme. But when I think about passing along a Rolex to my son it feels much different than passing down an IWC or a Seiko. These watches are to me more than just a sum of their parts. That's my two cents...I could be wrong.

[Gaijin]

non WIS types

What does this mean please? WIS? Thanks.

[padi56]

Originally Posted by KansaiVet

non WIS types

What does this mean please? WIS? Thanks.

Wis = Watch Idiot Savant.



1.A person self trained to sleep in 5 positions while wearing his/her COSC certified chronometer in bed.

2.A person who opens the back of a new Patek on the first day of acquisition and hand winds the rotor to tighten up the main spring.

3. A person who takes his 2000 meter water proof Rolex SD off from the wrist. And puts it into the deepest pocket,and three plastic bags before walking into a rain storm without any rain gear on.

4.A person who waits every 5 minute in front of his radio controlled clock in order to adjust all his/her 14 mechanical watches to the accuracy within -2/+2 seconds per 24 hours.


5. A person who can memorises all serial numbers of the Rolex watches made in the past 60 years but keeps forgetting the wifes wedding anniversary.

6. A person who washes his/her watch in luxury shampoo,polishes with specially bought cloth.Then rests it on another specially bought cloth just encase they scratch the stainless steel.

[Gaijin]

HAHAHAHAHAHAHA! I am not quite there, but I am morphing into it.

[diablojota]

Rolex isn't scared. If they were scared of the competition they would raise prices as they do. Their brand is very powerful. They are not fearing anything at the moment. They sell just about every watch they produce, and what they don't sell gets wholesaled off through gray markets and the like. Rolex will never admit to it outright, but they thrive on the gray market. They get their money no matter what and all the models sell. Everyone is happy.

[Blue Bull]

Like the used/2nd hand/pre loved(Such a nice romantic term .. ) watch dealer said: "ROLEX IS THE BUSINESS" He sells Pateks,Panerais etc.BUT,even he gets the sparkle in the eye and excitement in the voice,when we start talking and looking at Rolex.

[haakon59]

Great discussion guys, I think it's useful to look at these things. One comment I would make is that although Rolex tends to stick with it's various successful styles, they have always been improving their timepieces at least on the inside and I think this is one reason they earn the respect of the public and another reason you don't hear about many Rolex timepiece failures. That being said, I have sometimes wondered why they are not more adventuresome. Why not have a moon phase complication, or alarm complication, for example? I have to assume that their business model, which they have used very successfully, either assumes that others are doing this more successfully than they can right now, or that selling new lines won't be profitable enough or sell enough units to satisfy their cost structure. Maybe they also believe that adding too many complications might affect their reputation for reliability because obviously, with greater numbers of complications there is also greater risk of problems. I honestly don't know and in fact, not many people outside their company actually seem to have any concrete insider information. But I don't see any signs of their worrying yet. Should they? I would answer "Yes" just because the world is always changing. But it's another point entirely to say that Rolex already sees the signs of dramatic change. My best guess is that they don't right now. However, they are good at what they do and worth watching. I should mention that although I am a Rolex fan, I also see many other fine watch companies doing innovative and interesting work not just with design but also with mechanics. IWC and Patek Philippe are only two of many fine worthy brands.